late round draft value

[Lurker]

My thing is this: if they think they have their O line settled, then I want them to leave it alone and let the guys play together. I don't want them to keep moving new guys in every year, maybe one at the most. They have to get used to each other and learn how to play with one another. I don't mind depth, but I don't want our O line treated like a fantasy football team. O line is more of a team thing than any other position and constant disruption isn't going to get us anywhere.

It's the rare year that any team has all five starters play together all year. Guys are constantly moving in and out of the lineup, shifting positions, etc. due to injuries.

 

Perhaps more than any other position, the better/more experienced the backups, the more seamless the transition (i.e., less need to alter the offense to hide a weak link).

 

If Kirk Chambers plays more than 1-2 games this year, we better get used to the idea that the base offense gets pared down to accomodate this 'talents.'

[obie_wan]

You realize that Williams played RT because he had a left-handed QB at Texas, right? Top flight RT prospects with good feet are transistioned to the left side quite regularly in the NFL (we have our own case in point in Peters). And his 350 lbs playing weight wasn't fat, he was a huge man who had no problem carrying it.

 

IMO, MWs motivation 'problem' as a prospect was no different than a lot of high round picks that end up having successful careers. Namely, that he didn't play with a mean streak. Most guys develop one in the NFL...Williams didn't. Mckinnie had the same knock coming out of Miami, BTW.

 

There's no way your crystal ball was the only one that worked among talent evaluators and draft watchers in 2002...hindsight makes us all genuises.

 

You do realize that the Simms the left handed QB only started during Fat Mike's last season.

 

Major Applewhite, the career passing leader started the previous years when Fat Mike wasn't considered good enough to play LT.

 

The "blind side for a left handed QB" nonsense was a media creation started by Teflon Tom to justify the pick after panicking when Detroit took Joey H.

 

Fat Mike proved conclusively he couldn;t play the right side, let alone the harder left tackle slot.

[obie_wan]

No other unit on a football team relies so heavily upon each player knowing not only his own job, but the tendencies and proficiencies of the guy next to him.

 

That's a really good plan.

 

Everyone on the line will know in advance that Fowler will get blown up on running plays for teh next 5 years.

 

and if Peters gets hurt, then 2 TEs and a back will be kept in to help Chambers not be embarrased

 

I hope that continuity helps.

[Lurker]

You do realize that the Simms the left handed QB only started during Fat Mike's last season.

 

Major Applewhite, the career passing leader started the previous years when Fat Mike wasn't considered good enough to play LT.

 

The "blind side for a left handed QB" nonsense was a media creation started by Teflon Tom to justify the pick after panicking when Detroit took Joey H.

 

Fat Mike proved conclusively he couldn;t play the right side, let alone the harder left tackle slot.

Point taken on Applewhite.

 

If you can find me a link indicating the consensus oppinion on MW was that he was fat and couldn't play LT coming out of Texas, I'd be very interested in reading it.

 

BTW, nice try on the "MW wasn't considered good enough to play LT at UT"...Leonard Davis was playing that spot in 2000-01.

[Astrobot]

The probelm with your plan is the Bills just don't ever feel compelled to make the OL a priority in the draft.

 

and the one year they spend a 1st round pick, they draft a fat, unmotivated slob who has never played LT and pass up a bonafide LT from a major college program.

 

The ability to find and develop OL is systemic to the the Bills organziation.

 

Although they are good at finding CBs, they have been generally horrible (except for Peters) over the last 10 years of recognizing OL talent - either in the draft or free agency. Even with Peters, they did not know what they had and ended up cutting him before bringing him back later.

 

I didn't believe you, so I checked. The problem was 1999-2006.

 

YEAR RD PK PK#

1995 1 1 14 14 Ruben Brown G Pittsburgh

1996 7 6 35 202 Dusty Ziegler C Notre Dame

1997 3 4 24 120 Jamie Nails T Florida A&M

1997 5 6 22 185 Marcus Spriggs G Houston

1998 2 3 7 68 Robert Hicks T Mississippi State

1998 5 7 9 198 Victor Allotey G Indiana

1999 NONE

2000 NONE

2001 5 3 33 95 Jonas Jennings T Georgia

2001 7 5 13 144 Marques Sullivan T Illinois

2002 1 1 4 4 Mike Williams T Texas

2002 7 7 4 215 Mike Pucillo G Auburn

2003 6 5 16 151 Ben Sobieski G Iowa

2004 5 7 6 207 Dylan McFarland T Montana

2005 3 4 21 122 Duke Preston C Illinois

2005 5 6 23 197 Justin Geisinger G Vanderbilt

2006 6 5 10 143 Brad Butler T Virginia

2006 8 7 8 216 Terrance Pennington T New Mexico

2006 9 7 40 248 Aaron Merz G California

2007 NONE

2008 8 7 12 219 Demetrius Bell T Northwestern State

 

 

The real question is : Were the Bills that different than, say, NewCheatland? It seems so:

 

1999-1 1 17 17 Damien Woody C Boston College

2000-1 2 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii

2001 2 2 17 48 Matt Light T Purdue

2001 4 4 1 96 Kenyatta Jones T South Florida

2002 NONE

2003 6 5 29 164 Dan Koppen C Boston College

2004 NONE

2005 1 1 32 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State

2005 3 3 36 100 Nick Kaczur G Toledo

2006 6 5 3 136 Ryan O'Callaghan G California

2007 3 5 34 171 Clint Oldenburg T Colorado State

2008 NONE

[obie_wan]

I didn't believe you, so I checked. The problem was 1999-2006.

 

YEAR RD PK PK#

1995 1 1 14 14 Ruben Brown G Pittsburgh

1996 7 6 35 202 Dusty Ziegler C Notre Dame

1997 3 4 24 120 Jamie Nails T Florida A&M

1997 5 6 22 185 Marcus Spriggs G Houston

1998 2 3 7 68 Robert Hicks T Mississippi State

1998 5 7 9 198 Victor Allotey G Indiana

1999 NONE

2000 NONE

2001 5 3 33 95 Jonas Jennings T Georgia

2001 7 5 13 144 Marques Sullivan T Illinois

2002 1 1 4 4 Mike Williams T Texas

2002 7 7 4 215 Mike Pucillo G Auburn

2003 6 5 16 151 Ben Sobieski G Iowa

2004 5 7 6 207 Dylan McFarland T Montana

2005 3 4 21 122 Duke Preston C Illinois

2005 5 6 23 197 Justin Geisinger G Vanderbilt

2006 6 5 10 143 Brad Butler T Virginia

2006 8 7 8 216 Terrance Pennington T New Mexico

2006 9 7 40 248 Aaron Merz G California

2007 NONE

2008 8 7 12 219 Demetrius Bell T Northwestern State

 

 

The real question is : Were the Bills that different than, say, NewCheatland? It seems so:

 

1999-1 1 17 17 Damien Woody C Boston College

2000-1 2 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii

2001 2 2 17 48 Matt Light T Purdue

2001 4 4 1 96 Kenyatta Jones T South Florida

2002 NONE

2003 6 5 29 164 Dan Koppen C Boston College

2004 NONE

2005 1 1 32 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State

2005 3 3 36 100 Nick Kaczur G Toledo

2006 6 5 3 136 Ryan O'Callaghan G California

2007 3 5 34 171 Clint Oldenburg T Colorado State

2008 NONE

 

yeah - I can see how the Bills broke the trend in 20078 and 2008

[Ramius]

Dylan Gandy has a number of starts for the Colts, who have a very good offensive line. He has also started and performed well in playoff games.

 

he's so good that they recently cut him.

[eball]

That's a really good plan.

 

Everyone on the line will know in advance that Fowler will get blown up on running plays for teh next 5 years.

 

and if Peters gets hurt, then 2 TEs and a back will be kept in to help Chambers not be embarrased

 

I hope that continuity helps.

Right, that's exactly what I meant. Excellent reading comprehension, man.

[Dawgg]

he's so good that they recently cut him.

 

Hmm... perhaps that has something to do with the fact that they drafted 3 linemen in the draft this year, because they continually invest in their O-Line by bringing in young talent through in the middle rounds of the draft?

 

He got lost in a numbers game -- the Colts re-signed him to a 1-year tender at $1M just 3 weeks ago but no longer needed him after drafting 3 youngsters.

 

Ever since Polian left, this franchise has been very bad at utilizing the draft to build an offensive line -- yet another reason for their abysmal performance this decade.

[Ramius]

Hmm... perhaps that has something to do with the fact that they drafted 3 linemen in the draft this year, because they continually invest in their O-Line by bringing in young talent through in the middle rounds of the draft?

 

He got lost in a numbers game -- the Colts re-signed him to a 1-year tender at $1M just 3 weeks ago but no longer needed him after drafting 3 youngsters.

 

Ever since Polian left, this franchise has been very bad at utilizing the draft to build an offensive line -- yet another reason for their abysmal performance this decade.

 

of course, some people do realize that we completely re-vamped the front office 2 years ago, and they should not be lumped in with the actions of the previous regime. thusfar, this font office has done an adequate job of addressing the lines.

 

as for gandy, theres 1 of 2 possible scenarios

 

1. he wasnt very good, and the colts expect a 6th round pick to replace him, which doesnt speak highly of his perceived talent

 

2. Gandy was good, but the colts decided to replace him with a 6th round pick. in this case, they should have spent the pick on another position of need.

[obie_wan]

of course, some people do realize that we completely re-vamped the front office 2 years ago, and they should not be lumped in with the actions of the previous regime. t

 

maybe a free pass is not justified because the key players identifying and acquiring the college and pro talent are still the same- just covered with Teflon.

 

their crappy decisions on acquiring OL are the main reason they had to bite the bullet and spend $75 million on 2 free agents - that don;t play LT.

 

The current regime has spent even fewer high round picks on the OL than the previous regime.

[Dawgg]

of course, some people do realize that we completely re-vamped the front office 2 years ago, and they should not be lumped in with the actions of the previous regime.

 

"Revamp" may be a bit strong. Overdorf, Guy, and the scouting staff remain largely intact. Aside from Levy replacing Donahoe, it's largely the same folks.

 

as for gandy, theres 1 of 2 possible scenarios

 

1. he wasnt very good, and the colts expect a 6th round pick to replace him, which doesnt speak highly of his perceived talent

 

2. Gandy was good, but the colts decided to replace him with a 6th round pick. in this case, they should have spent the pick on another position of need.

 

From what I've heard, they plan to use Mike Pollack, their 2nd round pick, as a guard even though he played center in college.

 

Bottom line, versatility is the name of the game and Pollack can play 3 positions and will be locked up in a multi-year contract at a reasonable price.

 

Gandy is a decent player in his own right, but he's the odd man out here. Being the odd man out of a very deep OL is not necessarily an indictment of your play. It's just another example of a good organization consistently investing in the positions that are paramount to offensive success: the o-line. You might not see Pollack on YouTube highlight videos, but he's a huge addition to that team.

[Ramius]

maybe a free pass is not justified because the key players identifying and acquiring the college and pro talent are still the same- just covered with Teflon.

 

their crappy decisions on acquiring OL are the main reason they had to bite the bullet and spend $75 million on 2 free agents - that don;t play LT.

 

The current regime has spent even fewer high round picks on the OL than the previous regime.

 

just because the talent is the same, doesnt mean the philosophy of the front office is the same. Last i checked, the scouts found the talent, but didnt make the draft picks.

[Ramius]

"Revamp" may be a bit strong. Overdorf, Guy, and the scouting staff remain largely intact. Aside from Levy replacing Donahoe, it's largely the same folks.

 

 

 

From what I've heard, they plan to use Mike Pollack, their 2nd round pick, as a guard even though he played center in college.

 

Bottom line, versatility is the name of the game and Pollack can play 3 positions and will be locked up in a multi-year contract at a reasonable price.

 

Gandy is a decent player in his own right, but he's the odd man out here. Being the odd man out of a very deep OL is not necessarily an indictment of your play. It's just another example of a good organization consistently investing in the positions that are paramount to offensive success: the o-line. You might not see Pollack on YouTube highlight videos, but he's a huge addition to that team.

 

until you actually look at the 2 teams, and realize that the bills have many more holes to fill than the colts. a team like the colts that has all the skill position pieces in place can pick and choose which spots they can make minor upgrades at. the bills have needs and holes to fill with actual talent before they can waste resources on minor upgrades.

 

Ever heard of a team only being as strong as its weakest link? well, adding to the top isnt going to improve the weakest link. Prior to the draft, CB and WR were 2 of the weakest links on the team. they were addressed in the draft, which means going into next offseason we will have a new set of "weakest links" to address.

[obie_wan]

until you actually look at the 2 teams, and realize that the bills have many more holes to fill than the colts. a team like the colts that has all the skill position pieces in place can pick and choose which spots they can make minor upgrades at. the bills have needs and holes to fill with actual talent before they can waste resources on minor upgrades.

 

Ever heard of a team only being as strong as its weakest link? well, adding to the top isnt going to improve the weakest link. Prior to the draft, CB and WR were 2 of the weakest links on the team. they were addressed in the draft, which means going into next offseason we will have a new set of "weakest links" to address.

CB and WR are also 2 of the easiest positions to fill with veteran free agents - to eliminate the weak leak

 

WR especially makes sense to sign vets since rookies take so long to develop.

 

The bills could have solidified their WR by siging Wilford or Johnson - and then not been obligated to draft a WR high in the draft just to fix a weak link.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

until you actually look at the 2 teams, and realize that the bills have many more holes to fill than the colts. a team like the colts that has all the skill position pieces in place can pick and choose which spots they can make minor upgrades at. the bills have needs and holes to fill with actual talent before they can waste resources on minor upgrades.

And it was SO necessary for us to draft a pivotal #5 CB in the 4th round. Even if Corner winds up being a fairly good player, that one is still a head-scratcher to me.

[Pyrite Gal]

It's amazing how, with a team bereft of talent, people think late round picks making a thin roster is a success.

 

Not to say the 08 late round picks are complete garbage (they're not-yet) but the chances a 5th, 6th, or 7th round pick

makes the team and plays well is slim to almost none.

 

I'd refer people to Draft History and review the picks made from rounds 5-7. Usually, not more than 3-5 players become good NFL starters from those rounds. The rest don't cut it.

 

UDFA's probably have more success because there are so many of them. Most teams sign 10 or more each offseason. That's 320 players versus only about 100 picked in those three late rounds.

The fact you state it certainly a good theory which seems to bear itself out often if fact, however, this is simply a theory which often but does not always apply. The way to actually check on whether what you said is a theory that applies in a particular case is simply a deeper examination which also looks to the results achieved.

 

In 2006. the Bills did find several starters in the second day of the draft. However, it is also a fact that this team which started a 4th rounder at FS, a 5th rounder at DT and a 6th rounder at RT also improved its W/L from 5-11 without these rookies to 9-7 with these second day rookies (and first day rookie Whitner).

 

The theory that the Bills simply started bad players does not take into that these "bad" players played a pivotal role in helping the team improve its record.

[eball]

CB and WR are also 2 of the easiest positions to fill with veteran free agents - to eliminate the weak leak

 

WR especially makes sense to sign vets since rookies take so long to develop.

 

The bills could have solidified their WR by siging Wilford or Johnson - and then not been obligated to draft a WR high in the draft just to fix a weak link.

Now you're just talking out your ass. Finding a CB starter is "easy" in FA? Clements came pretty cheap to SF, didn't he...yes, those starting-caliber CBs are a dime a dozen in FA.

 

As for WR...Bryant Johnson was in such high demand he settled for a one-year "tryout" contract. Yeah, that would have answered the Bills' WR questions.

 

This is a discussion in which, clearly, one side is not going to convince the other. We have the "draft OL at all costs" contingent on one side, and the "draft to address starting position weaknesses" on the other, and ne'er the twain shall meet.

[Dibs]

Now you're just talking out your ass. Finding a CB starter is "easy" in FA? Clements came pretty cheap to SF, didn't he...yes, those starting-caliber CBs are a dime a dozen in FA.

 

As for WR...Bryant Johnson was in such high demand he settled for a one-year "tryout" contract. Yeah, that would have answered the Bills' WR questions.

 

This is a discussion in which, clearly, one side is not going to convince the other. We have the "draft OL at all costs" contingent on one side, and the "draft to address starting position weaknesses" on the other, and ne'er the twain shall meet.

Actually obie is sort of correct......but misleading. Good CBs & WRs for some reason hit the FA market(or trade) at a greater frequency than any other position. The problem is that in order to obtain one you generally need to fork out top dollar(as you pointed out with NC above)......which defeats the concept of spending your major resources on the lines(which the Bills have done over the past 3 off-seasons).

 

It's a silly argument really......spend big money on a #2 WR via FA(which there wasn't many available this off-season anyway)(& hope he pans out).....and use the 2nd round pick on an OLman who will 60%-65% chance be a bust & most likely not help the team much for 2 seasons.

Mind you.....there's just as much chance Hardy will be a bust & not help much for 2 seasons also. Perhaps there is no 'correct' way to go. Maybe the most important aspect is that whichever way you go......don't stuff up the picks/acquisitions.

[obie_wan]

Actually obie is sort of correct......but misleading. Good CBs & WRs for some reason hit the FA market(or trade) at a greater frequency than any other position. The problem is that in order to obtain one you generally need to fork out top dollar(as you pointed out with NC above)......which defeats the concept of spending your major resources on the lines(which the Bills have done over the past 3 off-seasons).

 

It's a silly argument really......spend big money on a #2 WR via FA(which there wasn't many available this off-season anyway)(& hope he pans out).....and use the 2nd round pick on an OLman who will 60%-65% chance be a bust & most likely not help the team much for 2 seasons.

Mind you.....there's just as much chance Hardy will be a bust & not help much for 2 seasons also. Perhaps there is no 'correct' way to go. Maybe the most important aspect is that whichever way you go......don't stuff up the picks/acquisitions.

 

Nobody is talking about big money for a #2 WR or CB.

 

Bryant Johnson for a 1 year contract for $2 mil would have provided a #2 WR at a cheap price for 2008, freeing the Bills to take the best players in the early part of the draft. The pick could have been a WR, knowing that WRs typically take 3 years to become funcitional in the NFL, with Johnson as the transition. Or it cuold have been an OL. The bills could have moved around in the rounds, as they have in the past to get the player they wanted.

 

The front office forced themselves into a corner (and a WR) by what they did in free agency before the draft. They coudl have easily fit an OL into the top of the draft if they had chosen to not ignore the OL completely.