late round draft value

[BillsVet]

The fact you state it certainly a good theory which seems to bear itself out often if fact, however, this is simply a theory which often but does not always apply. The way to actually check on whether what you said is a theory that applies in a particular case is simply a deeper examination which also looks to the results achieved.

 

In 2006. the Bills did find several starters in the second day of the draft. However, it is also a fact that this team which started a 4th rounder at FS, a 5th rounder at DT and a 6th rounder at RT also improved its W/L from 5-11 without these rookies to 9-7 with these second day rookies (and first day rookie Whitner).

 

The theory that the Bills simply started bad players does not take into that these "bad" players played a pivotal role in helping the team improve its record.

 

PG, I'd be interested to see how many of those 06 picks are starting just two years later. We know Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison, and perhaps even Simpson won't be. What's that say about the 2006 team? IMO, it means they were so darn thin they had to start these guys. It was a 7-9 season, and those "starters" aren't going to be starting anymore. This speaks less to the quality of the draft and more to the degree they stripped this team.

 

Nobody is talking about big money for a #2 WR or CB.

 

Bryant Johnson for a 1 year contract for $2 mil would have provided a #2 WR at a cheap price for 2008, freeing the Bills to take the best players in the early part of the draft. The pick could have been a WR, knowing that WRs typically take 3 years to become funcitional in the NFL, with Johnson as the transition. Or it cuold have been an OL. The bills could have moved around in the rounds, as they have in the past to get the player they wanted.

 

The front office forced themselves into a corner (and a WR) by what they did in free agency before the draft. They coudl have easily fit an OL into the top of the draft if they had chosen to not ignore the OL completely.

 

The Bills talked about not signing FA's to one year deals. Well, that's a great principle, but it could hurt in the long run, especially because WR's take time to develop. Bryant Johnson, DJ Hackett, and others were available for a pittance. Apparently the FO wanted to go the cheaper route and draft someone who'll take time. Buffalo always drafts for needs in the first two rounds. They've done it in three straight drafts with Whitner, McCargo, Lynch, Posluszny, McKelvin, and Hardy. If you're drafting for need three years running, something's wrong with those who build the team.

 

And BTW, isn't Buffalo about 22M below the cap? It's absurd to talk about 2-3M when they've got so much room to navigate. This is the prime reason they draft for need, and why it'll take a minimum of three years to get this team out of playoff jail.

[Bill from NYC]

until you actually look at the 2 teams, and realize that the bills have many more holes to fill than the colts. a team like the colts that has all the skill position pieces in place can pick and choose which spots they can make minor upgrades at. the bills have needs and holes to fill with actual talent before they can waste resources on minor upgrades.

 

Ever heard of a team only being as strong as its weakest link? well, adding to the top isnt going to improve the weakest link. Prior to the draft, CB and WR were 2 of the weakest links on the team. they were addressed in the draft, which means going into next offseason we will have a new set of "weakest links" to address.

 

I don't agree with this. One season, we were literally stacked at LB and virtually the entire unit went down to injury, many never to return. It seemed as if we lost Paup, Cowart, Holocek and Speilmann in a matter of seconds.

 

Also, remember if you will that if Albert is a star, he wouldn't be a "minor upgrade." Here is what I will confess......perhaps I am worried about a return trip to "Excuseville."

 

I think that you and I strongly differ about the qb situation, in that I think that Trent will be a star, much the way you seem to think (or did think, I can't say) about Losman. JP needed help up front and lots of it. Levy brought him Whitner, Youboty and Ko Simpson. Trent needed a center who doesn't suck, and someone who can play if a blocker gets hurt. Jauron brought him McCorner and Corner. Why is it that so few people can see the parallel of idiocy here? Please tell me, because I just don't know.

 

Even if CB was a need, why round 1? I think the obvious answer is the "play not to lose" mentality of Jauron. Jeez R-Man, I hope that I am wrong. I truly wish that Jauron will look like a genius here, instead of watching yet another young Bills quarterback being tossed to the wolves, in favor of dbs who matter less overall, let alone in the elements, than punishing blockers or pass rushers.

[ganesh]

The Colts have one of the Best Qbs ever; a solid Receiving corps, TE, RBs, Secondary, D-Line. So, yes, they had a different draft strategy. But that's the point.

 

 

 

And remind me again, why does it matter if we pay through the nose for OL help via free agency and draft CBs or draft OL and pay through the nose for CBs? Its six in one hand, half a dozen in the other. The current FO thought they could get FA linemen better than they could draft them. Given the past draft record, maybe they know their college line scouts suck. I don't know. But we got a decent line out of this FO, so why are we complaining about how they got it?

 

 

Exactly. Once the Bills can settle down on their skill players for nthe long term, then they can constantly be building the OL and DL. The Patriots are another example....Once they threw out Drew and got stability and success at the QB position, they went with DL and OL in their 1st 2-3 rounds of drafting....

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Nobody is talking about big money for a #2 WR or CB.

 

Bryant Johnson for a 1 year contract for $2 mil would have provided a #2 WR at a cheap price for 2008, freeing the Bills to take the best players in the early part of the draft. The pick could have been a WR, knowing that WRs typically take 3 years to become funcitional in the NFL, with Johnson as the transition. Or it cuold have been an OL. The bills could have moved around in the rounds, as they have in the past to get the player they wanted.

 

The front office forced themselves into a corner (and a WR) by what they did in free agency before the draft. They coudl have easily fit an OL into the top of the draft if they had chosen to not ignore the OL completely.

How does giving Johnson a 1-year contract solve any issues at WR? Are we not still forced to draft a reciever in the first 2 rounds, or will he continue to help the team after he's cashed in somewhere else?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

I think that you and I strongly differ about the qb situation, in that I think that Trent will be a star, much the way you seem to think (or did think, I can't say) about Losman. JP needed help up front and lots of it. Levy brought him Whitner, Youboty and Ko Simpson. Trent needed a center who doesn't suck, and someone who can play if a blocker gets hurt. Jauron brought him McCorner and Corner. Why is it that so few people can see the parallel of idiocy here? Please tell me, because I just don't know.

I think the problem is that some of you insist that the offensive line be addressed through the draft, regardless of whats happening with the rest of the team. Some of us are happy with the decent line they've built, not worrying about where it came from.

 

Why is the draft so much better than free agency? Why is Brandon Albert, a completely unknown commodity, so much better than Derrick Dockery?

[Dawgg]

use the 2nd round pick on an OLman who will 60%-65% chance be a bust & most likely not help the team much for 2 seasons.

 

You've been throwing this argument around for a while. Simply dividing the number of "busts" by the total number of players picked at the position is not an accurate way to determine probability of success -- far from it.

 

First of, in the second day, teams' draft boards differ rather significantly -- so you can't assume that a player picked in the 5th round was valued as such by the other 31 teams.

 

Second, a lot of it is dependent on scheme and a team's ability to develop rookies. Does a rookie OL drafted into Indianapolis have a higher chance of success than a rookie drafted into Arizona? In many ways, YES because Indy has a better track record at developing young talent.

 

Finally, the probability is dependent on the scouting staff. If the Bills' scouts know how to identify linemen at the collegiate level, your chances of success increase dramatically. Problem is, this has been their achilles heal for years. Rather than address the problem in the front office, the Bills just ignore the position altogether. Once again, the subpar results speak for themselves.

[Flbillsfan#1]

I don't agree with this. One season, we were literally stacked at LB and virtually the entire unit went down to injury, many never to return. It seemed as if we lost Paup, Cowart, Holocek and Speilmann in a matter of seconds.

 

Also, remember if you will that if Albert is a star, he wouldn't be a "minor upgrade." Here is what I will confess......perhaps I am worried about a return trip to "Excuseville."

 

I think that you and I strongly differ about the qb situation, in that I think that Trent will be a star, much the way you seem to think (or did think, I can't say) about Losman. JP needed help up front and lots of it. Levy brought him Whitner, Youboty and Ko Simpson. Trent needed a center who doesn't suck, and someone who can play if a blocker gets hurt. Jauron brought him McCorner and Corner. Why is it that so few people can see the parallel of idiocy here? Please tell me, because I just don't know.

 

Even if CB was a need, why round 1? I think the obvious answer is the "play not to lose" mentality of Jauron. Jeez R-Man, I hope that I am wrong. I truly wish that Jauron will look like a genius here, instead of watching yet another young Bills quarterback being tossed to the wolves, in favor of dbs who matter less overall, let alone in the elements, than punishing blockers or pass rushers.

There were NO WR's taken in round #1 but the Bills got a good one in round 2. CB was a more pressing need than OL, I think if Harvey was there the Bills would have taken him.

[BillsVet]

How does giving Johnson a 1-year contract solve any issues at WR? Are we not still forced to draft a reciever in the first 2 rounds, or will he continue to help the team after he's cashed in somewhere else?

 

It's apparent Jauron isn't worried so much about 2009, but rather keeping his job after 2008. He's been given every opportunity to succeed after the acquisitions of this off-season.

 

Bryant Johnson realized he wasn't getting the long term deal he figured to get. He signed for one year in SF.

 

If Edwards has been anointed the starter, and he has, shouldn't the franchise surround him with all the talent to win as quickly as possible? Everyone knows if just one guard or tackle goes down, it's Kirk Chambers and Jason Whittle to the rescue.

 

Meanwhile, the Bills offense will rely heavily on a rookie at WR. I daresay they'd have been better off grooming Hardy under a Bryant Johnson, allowing Johnson to leave, and getting Hardy to start in his second year. Then again, why support your starting QB with OL and WR's. This team's never really done that, across the Donahoe, Levy, and quasi-Brandon eras.

[Ramius]

It's apparent Jauron isn't worried so much about 2009, but rather keeping his job after 2008. He's been given every opportunity to succeed after the acquisitions of this off-season.

 

Bryant Johnson realized he wasn't getting the long term deal he figured to get. He signed for one year in SF.

 

If Edwards has been anointed the starter, and he has, shouldn't the franchise surround him with all the talent to win as quickly as possible? Everyone knows if just one guard or tackle goes down, it's Kirk Chambers and Jason Whittle to the rescue.

 

Meanwhile, the Bills offense will rely heavily on a rookie at WR. I daresay they'd have been better off grooming Hardy under a Bryant Johnson, allowing Johnson to leave, and getting Hardy to start in his second year. Then again, why support your starting QB with OL and WR's. This team's never really done that, across the Donahoe, Levy, and quasi-Brandon eras.

 

but they arent going to rely heavily on James Hardy. He does not need to put up eye-popping numbers to be successful. All he needs to do is take a little bit of pressure off of evans. Having him on the field will make defenses worry more about him, thus freeing up Lee and Marshawn.

[Dibs]

Bryant Johnson for a 1 year contract for $2 mil would have provided a #2 WR at a cheap price for 2008, freeing the Bills to take the best players in the early part of the draft...................The bills could have moved around in the rounds, as they have in the past to get the player they wanted........

Perhaps the Bills got the player they wanted in the 2nd round as it was.

[Dibs]

You've been throwing this argument around for a while. Simply dividing the number of "busts" by the total number of players picked at the position is not an accurate way to determine probability of success -- far from it.

 

First of, in the second day, teams' draft boards differ rather significantly -- so you can't assume that a player picked in the 5th round was valued as such by the other 31 teams.

 

Second, a lot of it is dependent on scheme and a team's ability to develop rookies. Does a rookie OL drafted into Indianapolis have a higher chance of success than a rookie drafted into Arizona? In many ways, YES because Indy has a better track record at developing young talent.

 

Finally, the probability is dependent on the scouting staff. If the Bills' scouts know how to identify linemen at the collegiate level, your chances of success increase dramatically. Problem is, this has been their achilles heal for years. Rather than address the problem in the front office, the Bills just ignore the position altogether. Once again, the subpar results speak for themselves.

Your dead right.......some teams do have a better track record at drafting players that pan out(or don't bust). There are probably about 3 or 4 of them in recent times. Apart from those very few successful teams(who may 'hit' often due to great overall talent/coaching) the rest of the league is clearly hit & miss. In fact, if you look at odds of 50-50, there should be one team that achieves 5 'hits' in 5 years & one team that has 5 'busts' in 5 years.

 

Overall one can say that nobody knows which players will shine & which will bust. Every team(every single one of them) will usually jump at the 'top 6-7' prospects in the draft.....and 50% of them bust. The draft is hyped & is a natural homer magnet for fans. "Of course our 1st rounder(& 2nd & 3rd) will be good players......they were drafted early in the draft." The reality is that most 2nd rounders & a large majority of 3rd rounders do not pan out.

 

We all want the holes to be filled by the early drafted players......but the reality is that it most likely will not be the case.

Honestly(& one poster got lambasted for raising this), we should be more upset at the FO for......considering we had absolutely nobody at #2WR.......ending up having to rely on a 2nd round draft pick to perform as a rookie, rather than ignoring the OL depth. There is far more chance that Hardy does not perform in '08 than there is of Peters getting injured for a chunk of the season.

[BillsVet]

but they arent going to rely heavily on James Hardy. He does not need to put up eye-popping numbers to be successful. All he needs to do is take a little bit of pressure off of evans. Having him on the field will make defenses worry more about him, thus freeing up Lee and Marshawn.

 

Hardy's size alone will not keep defenses from shading toward Evans. He'll have to prove he's dangerous, and not just in the RZ. Unless he's consistently embarrassing opponents the length of the field, teams aren't going to respect a player because he's taller. It may work initially, but not long term. Eventually he's going to have to make some plays. That's putting a lot of pressure on a rookie WR to take the focus from an established star. Hardly the scenario an offensive coordinator wants when trying to spark an anemic offense.

 

This team, for three straight years, has depended heavily on rookies. Whitner, McCargo, Simpson, Lynch, Posluszny, Edwards and now McKelvin and Hardy. If rookies are getting so much PT each year, what does that say about the front office?

[obie_wan]

but they arent going to rely heavily on James Hardy. He does not need to put up eye-popping numbers to be successful. All he needs to do is take a little bit of pressure off of evans. Having him on the field will make defenses worry more about him, thus freeing up Lee and Marshawn.

 

 

Unless Hardy proves dangerous and requires double teams (which is not your argument), how does "having him on the field" free up Evans anymore than Reed or Parrish or anyone not in a wheel chair that will occupy a single DB?

 

And if they aren't goiing to rely him , why the critical need to draft a WR over an OL?

[Ramius]

Hardy's size alone will not keep defenses from shading toward Evans. He'll have to prove he's dangerous, and not just in the RZ. Unless he's consistently embarrassing opponents the length of the field, teams aren't going to respect a player because he's taller. It may work initially, but not long term. Eventually he's going to have to make some plays. That's putting a lot of pressure on a rookie WR to take the focus from an established star. Hardly the scenario an offensive coordinator wants when trying to spark an anemic offense.

 

This team, for three straight years, has depended heavily on rookies. Whitner, McCargo, Simpson, Lynch, Posluszny, Edwards and now McKelvin and Hardy. If rookies are getting so much PT each year, what does that say about the front office?

 

If rookies are getting so much PT, it says 2 things...

 

1. the previous regime left the team in a really bad way, almost completely devoid of talent

 

2. the current FO has been drafting well enough that these rookies are good enough to get that much PT

 

As for hardy, no there isnt much pressure on him. If defenses continue to double cover evans, hardy will find himself roaming free. He needs to be able to make about 3 catches per game and teams will stop rolling coverage towards lee. Not to mention that this allows reed and parrish to work the slot where both of them are extremely dangerous. All hardy needs to be able to do is put up respectable 40-600-5, and that will free up evans to put up the 80-1200-10 that he's more than capable of.

[Ramius]

Unless Hardy proves dangerous and requires double teams (which is not your argument), how does "having him on the field" free up Evans anymore than Reed or Parrish or anyone not in a wheel chair that will occupy a single DB?

 

And if they aren't goiing to rely him , why the critical need to draft a WR over an OL?

 

Hardy doesnt need to draw double teams. He simply needs to take some pressure off of Evans. Coverages arent as simple as just "single coverage" and "double coverage", but i am not shocked that a sh-- for brains poster like yourself cannot understand this.

 

With Evans and no other threat, you can double the safety and corner on Lee, and the other safety can roll towards evans side of the field, effectively closing down that side of the field. Reed doesnt provide the receiving threat from the outside. If hardy can beat the single coverage and make a few catches, that will prevent the 2nd safety from shading towards Lee. Keeping both safeties back not only frees up Lee, it opens up the shorter passes to Reed/Parrish, and frees up lynch with more room to run.

 

However, I'd would like to know how your plan of drafting a backup OL in rounds 1 and 2 would have freed up Lee Evans.

[Captain Hindsight]

Hardy doesnt need to draw double teams. He simply needs to take some pressure off of Evans. Coverages arent as simple as just "single coverage" and "double coverage", but i am not shocked that a sh-- for brains poster like yourself cannot understand this.

 

With Evans and no other threat, you can double the safety and corner on Lee, and the other safety can roll towards evans side of the field, effectively closing down that side of the field. Reed doesnt provide the receiving threat from the outside. If hardy can beat the single coverage and make a few catches, that will prevent the 2nd safety from shading towards Lee. Keeping both safeties back not only frees up Lee, it opens up the shorter passes to Reed/Parrish, and frees up lynch with more room to run.

 

However, I'd would like to know how your plan of drafting a backup OL in rounds 1 and 2 would have freed up Lee Evans.

[drg2021]

It's apparent Jauron isn't worried so much about 2009, but rather keeping his job after 2008. He's been given every opportunity to succeed after the acquisitions of this off-season.

 

Bryant Johnson realized he wasn't getting the long term deal he figured to get. He signed for one year in SF.

 

If Edwards has been anointed the starter, and he has, shouldn't the franchise surround him with all the talent to win as quickly as possible? Everyone knows if just one guard or tackle goes down, it's Kirk Chambers and Jason Whittle to the rescue.

 

Meanwhile, the Bills offense will rely heavily on a rookie at WR. I daresay they'd have been better off grooming Hardy under a Bryant Johnson, allowing Johnson to leave, and getting Hardy to start in his second year. Then again, why support your starting QB with OL and WR's. This team's never really done that, across the Donahoe, Levy, and quasi-Brandon eras.

Having watched Bryant Johnson last season (he was on my fantasy team) i have to say,be thankfull we didnt sign him.It is true that he runs like the wind,but he has hands of steel.The highlights you saw of him catching touchdowns,were after about his 3rd or fourth dropped ball.His recieving ability reminded me of Micheal Gaines recieving abilities .The Bills made the right call by passing on him.

[stuckincincy]

If rookies are getting so much PT, it says 2 things...

 

1. the previous regime left the team in a really bad way, almost completely devoid of talent

 

2. the current FO has been drafting well enough that these rookies are good enough to get that much PT

 

As for hardy, no there isnt much pressure on him. If defenses continue to double cover evans, hardy will find himself roaming free. He needs to be able to make about 3 catches per game and teams will stop rolling coverage towards lee. Not to mention that this allows reed and parrish to work the slot where both of them are extremely dangerous. All hardy needs to be able to do is put up respectable 40-600-5, and that will free up evans to put up the 80-1200-10 that he's more than capable of.

 

That would be very respectable.

 

Speaking for myself, I'd be hard-pressed not to have taken one of those 1st round OLs. But whether or not they painted themselves into a corner (no pun intended), IMO the need for a WR was there.

 

I don't have much of an opinion on Hardy - about the only wr's I pay much attention to are the ones that play for these Ohio River Candy Stripers, and the local college teams, UC, OSU, Louisville, and KY. But the scouting reports, and posters here who have seen him play extensively, said good things.

[BillsVet]

If rookies are getting so much PT, it says 2 things...

 

1. the previous regime left the team in a really bad way, almost completely devoid of talent

 

2. the current FO has been drafting well enough that these rookies are good enough to get that much PT

 

As for hardy, no there isnt much pressure on him. If defenses continue to double cover evans, hardy will find himself roaming free. He needs to be able to make about 3 catches per game and teams will stop rolling coverage towards lee. Not to mention that this allows reed and parrish to work the slot where both of them are extremely dangerous. All hardy needs to be able to do is put up respectable 40-600-5, and that will free up evans to put up the 80-1200-10 that he's more than capable of.

 

Almost completely devoid of talent? ML/DJ inherited a team with Evans, Reed, Parrish, Peters, McGahee, Schobel, Kelsay, Denney, Clements, Fletcher-Baker, Spikes, Greer, McGee, Lindell, and Moorman. This was not a total rebuild a la Miami or Atlanta. ML/DJ made it more difficult for themselves.

 

Of course they've drafted well. Most of their picks in rounds 1-5 have had to start by virtue of their incessant shedding of players. How many of those late picks will be average to good starters in two years? We know Ellison, Pennington, and K. Williams won't be as all of them have been replaced two years after being drafted.

 

Hardy roaming free? You must assume there are no safeties involved, or linebackers floating in zone coverage like T2 teams run. This is nonsense, Hardy's presence alone will not prevent double teams from Evans, unless he's destroying coverages. How much respect does a rookie WR get anyway? Remember, this is a team with a developing QB, and no proven pass-catching TE.

 

Having watched Bryant Johnson last season (he was on my fantasy team) i have to say,be thankfull we didnt sign him.It is true that he runs like the wind,but he has hands of steel.The highlights you saw of him catching touchdowns,were after about his 3rd or fourth dropped ball.His recieving ability reminded me of Micheal Gaines recieving abilities .The Bills made the right call by passing on him.

 

Fantasy football is always the means by which we should judge players.

[Pyrite Gal]

PG, I'd be interested to see how many of those 06 picks are starting just two years later. We know Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison, and perhaps even Simpson won't be. What's that say about the 2006 team? IMO, it means they were so darn thin they had to start these guys. It was a 7-9 season, and those "starters" aren't going to be starting anymore. This speaks less to the quality of the draft and more to the degree they stripped this team.

Its true thankfully that many rookies who won starting jobs in 2006 have been replaced by better players (Stroud for Williams and McCargo finally breaks through, Mitchell for Ellison, but I think Simpson beats out Wilson). However, this does no eradicate the fact that it would be simplistic to just say the Bills started rookies because they were so weak.

 

The simple fact is that those rookies not only won starting jobs, but in fact they were good enough players to not only beat out dreck, but they were good enough players in comparison to the rest of the NFL that they played a substantial role in the team improving from 5-11 to 7-9.

 

Were these rookies great? No. However, no one says that.

 

Were these rookies good second day choices who made the team better? Yes. That is the key point the thread is making.

 

To simply ignore reality and claim that the second day picks ONLY started because the 05 team was so bad ignores a part of reality.

 

No one says that the second day picks were great players, merely that the team picked good players on the second day.

 

I think the more factual claim to be made in the assessment would be that the Bills under TD in his first drafts as a Bill (with Modrak in place for at least part of them) actually had a real lack of success on the second day only finding mcGee as a winner early on.

 

I think the factual events speak more to TD being not as good as Marv in leading the charge to second day choices and also it showing what a crapshoot the draft really is. Some people win and some people lose, but the fact seems to be that the same person may be a winner or a loser depending more on the luck of how it plays out rather than some consistent difference in skills which almost always is apparent.