Best Case Scenario

[Adam]

Dick Jauron is not a top caliber NFL head coach. He has had one strong year and that was achieved with smoke and mirrors. How anyone can not see this is beyond me. I don't give a rip about stats outside of wins/losses and he fails that stat test miserably. Quit with the excuses and look at wins & losses.

 

For those who point to last year...I have 2 words for you...fins, jests.

 

Do I want him to succeed in Buffalo? Absofreakinlutely. Do I think he will? Sadly, no I do not. We will run the best 5 yard square outs in the league though.

Dick Jauron can't win with mediocre teams, it is a fact that the Bills have been mediocre since Rob Johnson led us to our last playoffs spot.

 

New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Baltimore are better than us, and I would put Denver and Houston in front of us as well.

 

We have holes on both lines and are counting on a virtual rookie at QB and a rookie at WR. Not to mention that we can't count on blocking from our RB's to keep our offense on the field.

 

It will be another season in the rebuilding process, and if Jauron can squeeze 6-8 wins out of this group, it will be a small miracle. We are headed in the right direction, but we're not playoff caliber yet.

[Beerball]

Yes, because there is no other reality beyond wins and losses. Circumstances off and on the field that are out of a person's control, like injuries, don't have any impact on a teams ability to win or lose. I guess when Belicheat was in Cleveland sucking it up on the football field his first time around as a coach, he should have been thrown out of the league. When Marv was losing all those games in KC, Buffalo should have only paid attention to his win loss record and never considered the other parts of his ability to coach that made him great. Many of the qualities that Marv had, I see in Jauron. He had horrendous teams in Chicago, and yet he still managed to go 13-3. I like how when a coach people don't like has a good season, it must have been done by smoke and mirrors, because there's no way it could have been a good coaching job. No way Chicago's 8-0 record that year in games where the differential was 7 points or less could have had anything to do with the coaching job. But hey, it's his fault when a team with 12 starters on IR can't win 12 games. Those injuries have nothing to do with whether the Bills win or lose, right?

 

Give me a break.

Cry me a freakin river.

 

Players are held accountable for wins & losses but not head coaches?

[Adam]

Cry me a freakin river.

 

Players are held accountable for wins & losses but not head coaches?

I don' think Bellicheat with his videotape or the real best coach in the NFL- Jeff Fisher could have gotten our team to the playoffs

[Captain Hindsight]

Dick Jauron can't win with mediocre teams, it is a fact that the Bills have been mediocre since Rob Johnson led us to our last playoffs spot.

 

New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Baltimore are better than us, and I would put Denver and Houston in front of us as well.

 

We have holes on both lines and are counting on a virtual rookie at QB and a rookie at WR. Not to mention that we can't count on blocking from our RB's to keep our offense on the field.

 

It will be another season in the rebuilding process, and if Jauron can squeeze 6-8 wins out of this group, it will be a small miracle. We are headed in the right direction, but we're not playoff caliber yet.

You sure about that one? Who is playing QB this year? Flacco? Boller? Smith? pick your poison

[Dibs]

Dick Jauron is not a top caliber NFL head coach. He has had one strong year and that was achieved with smoke and mirrors. How anyone can not see this is beyond me. I don't give a rip about stats outside of wins/losses and he fails that stat test miserably. Quit with the excuses and look at wins & losses.

 

For those who point to last year...I have 2 words for you...fins, jests.

 

Do I want him to succeed in Buffalo? Absofreakinlutely. Do I think he will? Sadly, no I do not. We will run the best 5 yard square outs in the league though.

There is a difference in say that "DJ is not a top caliber NFL head coach" to saying that "DJ is a terrible NFL head coach".

To those saying he is a terrible coach I say "That is just your unfounded opinion."

To those saying he is a top caliber coach I say "That is just your unfounded opinion."

At this point in time he has proven that he is not terrible......but has in no way proven that he is 'top caliber'.

[Bill from NYC]

There is a difference in say that "DJ is not a top caliber NFL head coach" to saying that "DJ is a terrible NFL head coach".

To those saying he is a terrible coach I say "That is just your unfounded opinion."

To those saying he is a top caliber coach I say "That is just your unfounded opinion."

At this point in time he has proven that he is not terrible......but has in no way proven that he is 'top caliber'.

 

The above is true. I have seen worse coaches than Jauron, Rich Kotite for example.

 

I think that good coaches like Parcells, Gibbs, Coughlin, Schottenheimer, etc. come to town with an established program/system. They have already proven that their systems do work, and they usually have subordinates at their fingertips that they can count on.

 

Jauron came to town as a loser, who was hired by a GM that no other team wanted to employ for 10 or so years at any capacity. His "program" was to draft 5 defensive backs with his highest 12 picks in 3 years. This is idiotic, unless you are drafting for a team that is solid and deep in more important areas.

Now, he had a great (imo) day 1 in the 07 draft. I also love the fact that he was smart enough to bench Losman, a proven loser. Hopefully he will dump him and get at least some value for him.

 

Jauron correctly alluded to the fact that he will be judged on the results of this season (I paraphrase of course). I fear that because of this, his "play not to lose" mentality will increase, not decrease. I view the selection of McKelvin at #11 as evidence of this. It might work, whereas many factors are involved.

 

All we can do is hope for the best case scenario, which is that our guys play well and that Jauron develops onto a first rate coach. It could happen, right?

[ax4782]

Cry me a freakin river.

 

Players are held accountable for wins & losses but not head coaches?

 

No, players are held accountable when they don't play up to expectations and don't execute the offense. The problem is that coaches don't execute the plays. They call the plays. And many times they don't do that. For example, SF was in charge of the offensive play calling last year, not DJ. He was held accountable when he was fired. The fact is, the players we had last year did a heck of a job considering for lengthy parts of the season we had PS players starting on D. The fact that they played so hard as the season progressed I think demonstrates how good of a job DJ was able to do last year.

[Lurker]

I think that good coaches like Parcells, Gibbs, Coughlin, Schottenheimer, etc. come to town with an established program/system. They have already proven that their systems do work, and they usually have subordinates at their fingertips that they can count on.

 

Good coaches can look pretty mediocre when they don't have the horses either (and even sometimes when they do).

 

Parcels had a .500 record with one playoff loss over his final three years at Dallas. Gibbs was a 0.469 over the last four years at Washington. Coughlin was 0.521 with two PO losses in the three seasons before last year's SB team. Marty, with probably the best talent of the bunch, was 0.516 with one PO loss in the four years before the 2006 14-2 debacle.

 

As the saying goes, past performance is no guarrantee of future success...or failure.

[Bill from NYC]

Good coaches can look pretty mediocre when they don't have the horses either (and even sometimes when they do).

 

Parcels had a .500 record with one playoff loss over his final three years at Dallas. Gibbs was a 0.469 over the last four years at Washington. Coughlin was 0.521 with two PO losses in the three seasons before last year's SB team. Marty, with probably the best talent of the bunch, was 0.516 with one PO loss in the four years before the 2006 14-2 debacle.

 

As the saying goes, past performance is no guarrantee of future success...or failure.

 

Your point is taken, but the impact fades as you exclude great seasons from great coaches. I'm just sayin, ya know?

[BillsVet]

Jauron correctly alluded to the fact that he will be judged on the results of this season (I paraphrase of course). I fear that because of this, his "play not to lose" mentality will increase, not decrease. I view the selection of McKelvin at #11 as evidence of this. It might work, whereas many factors are involved.

 

All we can do is hope for the best case scenario, which is that our guys play well and that Jauron develops onto a first rate coach. It could happen, right?

 

What happens when a supervisor has been given the produce or else speech from higher? They start micromanaging everything and make it a point to stand over the shoulder of all their people.

 

Bill, I'd agree with you. All the bluster about Schonert changing things up and creating an offense that is high powered is unfounded. Schonert made the following comment on being hired:

 

"We're going to be more diversified than the past two years," said Schonert. "I'm probably going to be a more aggressive play caller than what we saw last year. I can't say what we're going to be to this point, but I know where I want us to be."

 

Does anyone think Jauron will allow a first time OC to do this? Nothing since the year 2001 gives me this impression.

[Lurker]

Your point is taken, but the impact fades as you exclude great seasons from great coaches. I'm just sayin, ya know?

Agreed. There's something to be said for a body of work that includes some magical seasons along the way.

 

But sometimes the 'greatness' label is thrown around too easily, IMO. I wonder how some of these 'great coaches' would be viewed today if a few plays along the way had gone the other direction or a key injury had occurred at an inopportune time.

 

In any event, the 2008 season will surely be an interesting one for the Bills.

[Lurker]

Does anyone think Jauron will allow a first time OC to do this? Nothing since the year 2001 gives me this impression.

Six words say it for me...."We have to score more points"

 

Jauron's conservativism following the 2001 season may have had something to do with the fact he had a strong D and a revolving door at the QB position.

 

"A healthy Jim Miller can lead the Bears to a Super Bowl" declared Bears GM Jerry Angelo during the 2001/2002 offseason. Angelo then awarded Miller a five-year $20 million contract, again loaded with incentives for playing time and statistics. Angelo signed equally-brittle Chris Chandler to back up Miller, and the stage was set for a comedic revolving door at the position during the 2002 season.

 

Miller started the first five weeks of the season, after which it was announced he was suffering from elbow tendinitis and would need to be rested. Chandler started the next two games, then was knocked silly November 3rd against Philadelphia. Undaunted, the gritty Miller started and finished the next four games, until he his season ended at Miami with a knee injury. During these six games, Miller often missed throws badly due to his elbow and shoulder problems, but a gimpy Miller was the best QB the team could field.

 

The same applies to the 2003 season, when Angelo threw Jauron under the bus, IMO, by signing Kordell Stewart to hold the seat for new #1 pick Rex Grossman, while getting rid of serviceable vets like Ted Washington and Roosevelt Colvin.

[robertpaul49]

As far as Juron goes, I think it is difficult to judge him based on his time in Chicago. The Buffalo Bills have much better talent evaluators than Chicago. They had bust after bust and very little talent. I think the Bills got off track under Donohoe. The level of talent significantly dropped because he decided that building for the future was a waste of time so he stocked the team with aging veterans. The Bills are currently doing the opposite which takes time. It is also one of the reasons the Bills have one of the youngest teams in the league. I think that this year will be important, and I know the offense has been overly predictable, but Fairchild, I am sure, was asked to leave. There is no possible way that the team can play any more conservative. Certainly, if he can't get them to the playoffs, he will suck; however, this is his third year, which is a very important year because everybody should be on the same page.

 

As far as defensive backs, I think there are two issues. One, they have decided to build up the backfield in the draft. In some weird way, it makes sense. If all the other teams are drafting defensive tackles and other positions, it would make sense to go in another direction since, the team is not forced to reach for a player by following the crowd. Two, I think it is just how this draft worked out. They would have been idiots to pick Harding at 11 when they got him in the second round. Plus, there weren't any defensive lineman worth the 11th pick either.

[Dibs]

Jauron came to town as a loser, who was hired by a GM that no other team wanted to employ for 10 or so years at any capacity. His "program" was to draft 5 defensive backs with his highest 12 picks in 3 years. This is idiotic, unless you are drafting for a team that is solid and deep in more important areas.

Now, he had a great (imo) day 1 in the 07 draft. I also love the fact that he was smart enough to bench Losman, a proven loser. Hopefully he will dump him and get at least some value for him.

I think you are allowing your dislike of the drafting strategy to affect your thoughts on the coaching situation......as well as your thoughts on where DJ, Marv & the FO have truly shown what they value. You are acting a bit blinded to the actual situation. The draft is only one aspect to building a team.......and perhaps the strategy employed by the Bills of late has been to make sure they maximize the impact of their rookies(i.e. draft positions which can contribute right away).....and lock up established veterans at the 'important' positions.

 

When you look at every single decent contract(FA Acquisition & re-signing) it is all DL & OL. All of the money has been pumped into those positions(apart from Mitchell). Schobel, Kelsay, Stroud, Johnson, Tripplett, Peters, Dockery, Walker. The only 'small' players given any decent contract have been Parrish, Moreman & Lindell......all great ST contributors.

 

I look at the OL in a similar manner to yourself. I scratch my head & say "We are weak at C. We have no depth." But then I remember 3 drafts ago thinking "We need a LT" and didn't draft one & guess what? We ended up having a future pro-bowl LT on the roster. I remember thinking 2 seasons ago "We need a better OL" and guess what? We spent mega$$$ on LG & RT. I remember just a few months back thinking "We desperately need a DT next to McCargo(& depth)" & guess what? We landed a 3xprobowler DT & a good rotational DT.

 

Simply focusing on the draft is not indicative of how the GMs, FO & HC have managed the personnel on this team. So far they have steadily built a team in all areas(particularly D) and shown several times that what may be 'apparent' is not necessarily so. I personally trust the FO enough now not to yell "idiots" when they make decisions that I cannot see the exact reasons for.

[Beerball]

I don' think Bellicheat with his videotape or the real best coach in the NFL- Jeff Fisher could have gotten our team to the playoffs

I don't think I have said that they or anyone else could.

 

What I have said is: "Do I want him to succeed in Buffalo? Absofreakinlutely. Do I think he will? Sadly, no I do not. We will run the best 5 yard square outs in the league though."

[Beerball]

No, players are held accountable when they don't play up to expectations and don't execute the offense. The problem is that coaches don't execute the plays. They call the plays. And many times they don't do that. For example, SF was in charge of the offensive play calling last year, not DJ. He was held accountable when he was fired. The fact is, the players we had last year did a heck of a job considering for lengthy parts of the season we had PS players starting on D. The fact that they played so hard as the season progressed I think demonstrates how good of a job DJ was able to do last year.

 

Interesting revisionist history there axle. You seem to be missing one very large point about last year...jests, phins. Coaching actually cost us a game or two last year. But, that wasn't Jauron's fault.

 

So, players are accountable when they don't play up to expectations and don't execute the offense? Someone better tell Poz he's responsible for how the offense is executed. Players aren't responsible for wins & losses and coaches aren't responsible for wins & losses. Interesting concept.

[Adam]

I don't think I have said that they or anyone else could.

 

What I have said is: "Do I want him to succeed in Buffalo? Absofreakinlutely. Do I think he will? Sadly, no I do not. We will run the best 5 yard square outs in the league though."

Well, same situation at center- if you want a replacement, you need to be sure he is better. Jauron is doing just fine for what he has to work with

[nemhoff]

Now let us join hands in prayer...

 

Seriously, I think we're in pretty goods shape. I fully expect 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, and 9 to happen. I hope 6 will happen, but it won't make or break our season. For 10, I think Royal is better than most on the board give him credit for. 7 and Edwards is what keeps me up. Should be fun to see, though.

 

Bill, we have a good offensive line. You'll see.

 

and sing kumbaya

[Pyrite Gal]

Dick Jauron is not a top caliber NFL head coach. He has had one strong year and that was achieved with smoke and mirrors. How anyone can not see this is beyond me. I don't give a rip about stats outside of wins/losses and he fails that stat test miserably. Quit with the excuses and look at wins & losses.

 

For those who point to last year...I have 2 words for you...fins, jests.

 

Do I want him to succeed in Buffalo? Absofreakinlutely. Do I think he will? Sadly, no I do not. We will run the best 5 yard square outs in the league though.

Is DJ a top caliber in NFL HC? It depends on what you mean by top caliber.

 

Top 10%- No way in my opinion.

 

Top 25%- Nope IMHO

 

Top 50%- Yes I would judge.

 

He easily is an average coach IMHO (which to me means he is not in the top 33% nor is he is in the bottom 33%.

 

In general, though there is a Rich Kotite from time to time, its difficult to be hired as an HC (though one was as an interim) 3 times in the NFL if you are one of the lower third. It also is incredibly rare for someone who is a below average HC to win NFL Coach of the Year honors even once.

 

IMHO opinion, DJ is somewhere between the top 50% and top 66% of NFL coaches. He is a good NFL HC which I think is what it takes to take a 5-11 team in such disarray that the GM got canned and actually lead them to an improved record of 7-9 his first year. I fail to see how anyone does not give a rip about stats outside of W/L would not be able to acknowledge this.

 

DJ failed last year in that he was only able to lead the team to the same 7-9 record. There is no excuse for failure in that like it or not he failed last year.

 

However, though there is no excuse there clearly were reasons why this team sported a 7-9 record (and not 8-8 or 6-10). There reasons DO NOT excuse failure in the past, but they do provide a guide for what should be done in the future.

 

Again it seems clear to me that anyone who measures things mostly by the ultimate stat W/L would not calculate that given the real world improvements of the Jauron's first year over the MM led team and the maintenance of this record in the face of a league leading total of players on IR, and given the disarray of his inherited team which is still embodied in its QB uncertainty, that one should be reasonably hopeful about DJ's third year.

[1billsfan]

Will this be great. Doubtful but we will see as no one knows the future for sure. Ralph and his mismanagement of the leavings of Polian, Butler, TD would seem to be a far greater rate limiting factor than any DJ issues. Fish rot from the head and poor DJ ain't the head of this fish.

 

Poor DJ????

 

Remember how bad the 2-14 '85 and half of '86 Hank Bullough Bills were? Well Marv Levy got them to a 12-4 record after only a season and a half.

 

Remember how bad the 2-14 '92 Dick MacPherson Pats were? Well Bill Parcells got them to 10-6 after only one season.

 

Remember how bad the 1-15 '96 Rich Kotite Jets were? Well Bill Parcells got them to 9-7 the following season and 12-4/AFC Championship game the season after that.

 

Remember how bad the 5-11 '02 Dave Campo Cowboys were? Well Bill Parcells got them to 10-6 the following season.

 

 

I'm sorry, but I'm sick and tired of the "poor DJ" sentiments. How about the poor Buffalo Bills fans who are being saddled with this lifelong loser of a head coach? DJ's been given FULL REIGN over this organization for three seasons worth of drafts and FA acquisitions to go along with the talent that was here already like Peters, Evans, Crowell, Schobel, McGee, Parrish, Mooreman, and Lindel. If he can't get it done in his third year here then he needs to go. Poor DJ? To me, there is no luckier guy in the NFL than DJ, how else could you explain how a guy with a .437 coaching record over seven seasons can still have a head coaching job. Fans here are more than happy to proclaim JP a big fat loser after only 35 games yet unbelievably still are giving DJ a pass after 117 games as a head coach. The excuses and the apologies should be over for all Bills fans regarding this coach in 2008. If you support Jauron staying on as head coach of the Bills after a no better than 8-8 season in 2008, then you're a bigger DJ fan than a Bills fan.