To Those Who Are Happy About The McKelvin Pick

[Chicken Wing '73]

My opinion of the pick is well known but believe it or not, I am willing to listen to some degree of reason. I do wonder just how good this kid has to play to satisfy those of you who wanted yet another first round defensive back, and think that Jauron is something less than a loser/jackass for drafting one.

 

At the #11 slot, do we have right to reasonably expect this kid to be a solid player? Should he be more of an impact player than Whitner? Should we expect him to develop into the equal of Clements? Should we expect the next Mel Blount?

 

I have never seen this small college kid play football. I have zero idea how good he is. Do you guys think that he will be as good as Winfield? Burress? Deoin Sanders? I pay no attention to defensive backs in terms of players that I think the Bills need to win. The reason for this is that I have watched 1st round dbs come and go, as the Bills continue to lose.

 

Is there something special about McKelvin that should/would make me think that this time will be different?

 

McKelvin kinda reminds me of another former Bill with horrible hands... Thomas Smith. Maybe its the jersey number

[OCinBuffalo]

I actually disagree with you on this point. Spend the big money on the OL, Front 7 on D and offensive skill positions, in that order. Save the secondary for draft picks.

Isn't that precisely what we did? O line last year, Stoud and Mitchell this year? And the last three drafts?

[DrDawkinstein]

I actually don't have much of a problem picking a CB in the first round every 3-4 years. That way we do not tie up as much FA money in the position.

 

exactly. CB is the most over-paid position. if we can keep very good, cheap CBs (like McGee and Greer) around and then draft your playmaker every 5 years, and put that money into bringing in OLine and Dline... id say thats a pretty good plan

[DrDawkinstein]

Isn't that precisely what we did? O line last year, Stoud and Mitchell this year? And the last three drafts?

 

right, thats his point. its Lori who said we need to pay one of these CBs someday.

[OCinBuffalo]

exactly. CB is the most over-paid position. if we can keep very good, cheap CBs (like McGee and Greer) around and then draft your playmaker every 5 years, and put that money into bringing in OLine and Dline... id say thats a pretty good plan

Perhaps we haven't been looking at this right given the new NFL(um, collective bargaining agreement). Perhaps it makes sense to let lineman develop on somebody else's roster for 3 years, play well, and then get them in FA when we know what we are getting, than draft one in the first round and overpay during the development time. Meanwhile, we could have drafted skill players like RB, CB, and LB who have a much better chance of coming in and starting right away. Perhaps that's the new thinking, but then again, Nick Mangold at the Jets kinda blows that idea up.

[DrDawkinstein]

Perhaps we haven't been looking at this right given the new NFL(um, collective bargaining agreement). Perhaps it makes sense to let lineman develop on somebody else's roster for 3 years, play well, and then get them in FA when we know what we are getting, than draft one in the first round and overpay during the development time. Meanwhile, we could have drafted skill players like RB, CB, and LB who have a much better chance of coming in and starting right away. Perhaps that's the new thinking, but then again, Nick Mangold at the Jets kinda blows that idea up.

 

 

theres always going to be exceptions, but youre definitely on the right track.

[DrDawkinstein]

great thread Bill! i hope its helping you feel better about the pick!

[JoeF]

As much as we would like to think Football is a history lesson, its more current events. This Bills front office seems driven by what their roster looks like today rather than worrying about what their historical draft record and player retention history looks like. Everyone loses free agents--you think the Skins were happy to lose Dockery? No way--there was crying and gnashing of teeth--but they didn't want to pay $7M a year for a guard. Seattle didn't want to lose Hutchinson three years ago. The Pats didn't want to lose Samuel and Gay this off-season--but that's life in the NFL -- you adapt and adjust. We have not adapted or adjusted well because over the last 8 years we had too much focus and money tied up in players who couldn't perform to the level we were paying them.

 

So a quick lesson on current events. The Bills have this other team in the division that outscored them 94-17 last year in two games...and threw for 700 yards and 9 touchdowns in two games...our DB's looked lost against them. If that is our benchmark--we did the right thing. The corner position needed a makeover and its getting one, just like the DT position needed one.

 

The OL needed a makeover last year and it got one outside the draft. Our sacks were way down..our running game showed a bit of improvement but will probably show even more this year as the player's mesh. Do we need one more stud on the interior at C--maybe, but it was far from our greatest need.

 

Jauron inherited the worst situation possible in many ways--lots of holes and age on a losing roster. They are filling those holes by spreading the cap pretty wisely in my opinion and being opportunistic with trades, FA and the draft. Waxing poetically about our inept history is not going to get us anywhere...filling our greatest talent holes particularly those our divisional opponents exploit will get us places.

 

What was the question again? Oh yeah--Leodis Day and Knights and what I think is a standard of performance for a #11 pick. I think he should be an immediate starter. Anything less and I will be disappointed. I don't care if he gets roasted a few times--not putting him out there right away as a corner will stunt his development. A QB may be different -- its more complex but a corner--its understand 3 maybe 4 coverages and also "hey--see this mother!@#$er across from you" run down the field with him step for step. A player either has this or he doesn't..

[John from Riverside]

Hey, that is a totally fair question; one that I appreciate.

First round guards are rare as compared to other positions. Their success rate is very high. I would expect Albert (injuries notwithstanding) to perform on a high level, similar to perhaps Ruben Brown. Also, it is said that he might even be equipped to slide over to tackle.

 

I understand that any draftee can be a flop but again....few OGs are selected in round 1, and a lot of the ones who were turned out to be great players. Our history with corners is to draft them in round 1, develop them, and watch them leave town.

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My only real reservation over the pick Billl.....

 

I am tired of the bills "OJT'ing" corners just so they can leave in their best years.

 

Having said that......this kid has all the tools....and has shut down players that were considered to be big time threats coming out of college. I expect for him to be the nickle back by the start of the year.....and starting before the season is over.

[Ozymandius]

I would expect McKelvin to be an eventual Pro Bowler, just like I would expect Branden Albert to be one.

 

I also would expect the o-line to provide a good running game for Edwards because if the o-line is again mediocre at running the ball, then I'll feel like they should've drafted Albert. We have a young QB we're trying to groom, and in my mind, we should do as much as possible to make his development as easy as possible. Even if that means making another sizeable investment in the line to go with Dockery/Walker from last offseason. You can never have enough good linemen, and moving Butler to a backup role would've provided instant depth for a team that's perilously thin on the o-line.

[otisly00]

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My only real reservation over the pick Billl.....

 

I am tired of the bills "OJT'ing" corners just so they can leave in their best years.

 

Having said that......this kid has all the tools....and has shut down players that were considered to be big time threats coming out of college. I expect for him to be the nickle back by the start of the year.....and starting before the season is over.

 

I cant imagine that he isnt starting in week 1. Greer was good, but he's better fitted in nickel. It seems CB's have the easiest transition to the NFL than most other positions. I think our coaching staff and players know that its getting to be make or break time...we've had some good drafts and spent some $$ to shore up both sides of the line. THe best players will be on the field...I've finally seen DJ break some of his old habits which annoyed the crap out of me - hanging on to his old Bears players he liked - ATrain for one - and he's cutting them.

 

The problem with paying any player, any position is the whole motivation factor. Clements didnt have it at times...and more often than not once a guy gets his big payday they seem to lose that 'edge'.

[faderphreak]

McKelvin kinda reminds me of another former Bill with horrible hands... Thomas Smith. Maybe its the jersey number

 

I was kind of thinking the same thing when kept reading up on the kid. I'll tell you what though. If he turns out like Thomas Smith, I'll be happy with the pick. Smith was a tough SOB, for a number of years, who covered the other team's best receiver, and contributed solid run support. He didn't have a lot of picks but he didn't give up a lot of completions. I remember games that the other team didn't even bother trying to go to his man. A solid if unspectacular first round pick if there ever was one.

 

Too bad we couldn't hold onto corners of his calibre for what he cost us in his second contract.

[dave mcbride]

My opinion of the pick is well known but believe it or not, I am willing to listen to some degree of reason. I do wonder just how good this kid has to play to satisfy those of you who wanted yet another first round defensive back, and think that Jauron is something less than a loser/jackass for drafting one.

 

At the #11 slot, do we have right to reasonably expect this kid to be a solid player? Should he be more of an impact player than Whitner? Should we expect him to develop into the equal of Clements? Should we expect the next Mel Blount?

 

I have never seen this small college kid play football. I have zero idea how good he is. Do you guys think that he will be as good as Winfield? Burress? Deoin Sanders? I pay no attention to defensive backs in terms of players that I think the Bills need to win. The reason for this is that I have watched 1st round dbs come and go, as the Bills continue to lose.

 

Is there something special about McKelvin that should/would make me think that this time will be different?

Bill, I think you're looking at it the wrong way. The best front seven player the Bills have had since Bruce Smith is Ted Washington, and he came to the Bills as an FA with FAR more injury questions than Stroud. Stroud, in my humble opinion, is one of the more dominant DTs of the past 5 years or so, and if the Bills get three-four good years, then it's all good. Remember that a lot of these DTs last pretty long. The only thing that sends them packing is the overeating, and I've never had the sense that this is Stroud's problem. Spencer Johnson, by the way, is most likely going to be a more productive player than any of the DTs drafted after Dorsey/Ellis next season.

 

At the LB position, Mitchell is far stouter against the run than Ellison, and we all know that a healthy Poz is a good player.

 

The O-line seems fine to me, and Whittle, who missed all of last season with one of those relatively minor injuries that requires surgery, will be back at full strength. Butler was looking reasonably solid by the end the season, and Fowler, while not great, at least knows the offense and is a serviceable pass blocker.

 

So I guess I'm asking: didn't the Bills go out and address your concerns before they drafted McKelvin?

[Geno Smith's Arm]

People on this thread, and the board in general keep bitching about the positions of the players the Bills draft. I don't think that has been their biggest problem. The Problem has been the PLAYERS they have drafted in the past decade.

 

Erik Flowers should be in the prime of his career, a team leader that raises the standards and sets the tone for the team.

Mike Williams should just be entering his prime, a fixture at left tackle, with a Pro Bowl under his belt.

JP Losman should be the face of the franchise, 30 TD's a season.

Willis McGahee should be entering his prime, 1500 yards a season with another 500 receiving.

Josh reed should at least be a solid #2 receiver.

 

None of this happened.

And I don't think any of those guys would have had careers like that on ANY team (in other words, even a team that spent their top picks on OL wouldn't make JP a star, Josh Reed would be marginal if he was on the Colts.

Erik Flowers would blow, even if he played for the Ravens.

Mike Williams.....

 

It's mainly the PLAYERS not the positions.

 

Hopefully Mckelvin is a great player.

I think if Whitner was surrounded by better players, he would really shine, I like that pick

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Jake Reed would be marginal if he was on the Colts. Hopefully Mckelvin is a great player.

I think if Whitner was surrounded by better players, he would really shine, I like that pick

 

Hard to say I mean Jake Reed did have Carter opposite him, but he was decent enough in his own right. They had a bit of a qb shuffle there. He finished second in 96 in receiving yards. Is second all time on the vikings with 12 plays of 50+ yards. On the colts he wouldn't had the luxury of playing opposite carter, and the colts weren't really a good team in the early 90's. Really hate to knock his talent though.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Hard to say I mean Jake Reed did have Carter opposite him, but he was decent enough in his own right. They had a bit of a qb shuffle there. He finished second in 96 in receiving yards. Is second all time on the vikings with 12 plays of 50+ yards. On the colts he wouldn't had the luxury of playing opposite carter, and the colts weren't really a good team in the early 90's. Really hate to knock his talent though.

That's how forgettable Josh Reed is. If he was as good as Jake was, I would be happy.

Edit

[Ramius]

I liked the McKelvin pick. As for expectations, i hate to put the pro-bowl stigma on a player, because the pro-bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest. the best dont always make it. As for this season, i reasonably expect McKelvin to crack the starting lineup and displace greer in the latter phases of the season. I also expect him to become our #1 CB in his 2nd-3rd year in the league.

 

However, bill, i fully you expect you to trash McKelvin week in and week out in your weekly post-game thoughts as you did last year with whitner. Just try and remember that you can dislike the pick and still like the player. Its not McKelvin's fault he got picked.

[Dibs]

My first reaction to the McKelvin pick was...."Ugg". I really wanted Albert since he was still available. For me one of the main criteria in drafting 1st round is getting a player who does not bust out. OGs have an extraordinary record in this regard....with an exceptional record in becoming at least quality NFL players. Why? I figure it must be a lot easier to evaluate the talent at OG than any other position. In my mind, Albert most likely would have helped us probably immediately & most likely for the next 10-15 years.

Upon looking at McKelvin, apart from us getting a very highly regarded prospect who looks to have a better than average chance of not busting out, I realized something. I realized that he may well be the final piece that the defense needs.

If......and there are still a tonne of 'ifs'.....all the additions on D play to expectations this year, we could be looking at a very solid D.

Stroud & Johnson along with a 3rd year McCargo could see us finally be solid up the middle. IMO this will certainly help our incumbent DEs to produce sacks more akin to 05/06 rather than the 07 season. A 3rd rounder(Ellis) for extra depth could see our 8 DLmen flourish.

 

If Mitchell performs & shows he is not a product of the Giants system, him along with Poz & Crowell.....and backups who have had extensive starter experience.....along with being helped by a strong DL could see us being very solid at LB.

 

If Simpson can show himself to be a decent FS(continuing his growth from 06) we were looking OK in the secondary. Whitner being solid already could excel with the better front 7. McGee & Greer seem decent(particularly considering the T2) but what happens when we are up against 3 WR sets etc? Adding McKelvin has the potential to not only give us great depth at CB but also adds the potential that the CBs could become a strength overall rather than OK-decent.

 

The logic of it I think is that locking up one side of the ball(in this case D) in all areas with talented young players not only enables all individual players to play to their potential but gives great freedom in the future in terms of the draft & FA.

As I said, there are still a lot of 'ifs' in regards to whether we have achieved the 'locking up' of the D....or even having gotten close.....but if we have done, that will greatly help the young players on the O perform closer to their potential.

Simply, the sum of the parts is less than the sum of the whole.

 

What I expect from McKelvin.....

I hope for a solid starter in his rookie season & possibly several pro-bowls throughout his career.

I expect him not to be a bust.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

Methinks this thread betrays some of our posters' ages a bit. The NFL of today, 2008, is a pass-oriented league, more than ever before. More teams are using the slot receiver and spread sets than ever. We just happen to be in a division with the most prolific passing offense ever; a team we have to man-up to twice a season. Interior D-linemen are often as big as the offensive linemen they face now. Tailbacks break down, many teams now use the "tandem" strategy to try to get some sort of run production week after week.

My point is that possessing an elite corner is almost essential to compete today. Jauron knows this. The rest of the front office knows this. McKelvin was the surest bet this draft of securing a player that can develop into an elite at his position. I don't think any of you can argue with that.

Spout the "championships are built from the lines out" line all you want. Its true to a certain extent, and I think the Bills have more than adequately addressed those areas in the last two years by molding Peters into a pro-bowl LT, adding Walker and Dockery, locking up our DEs (who can play, they have showed it in the past), and adding Stroud and Spence.

 

And please stop complaining about McK's height. He's 5'10 1/2". With the kid's athleticism that is plenty tall to cover all but the most monstrous WR's. The front office isn't enamored with midgets. They have added size at the lines where they know it counts the most, and heeded everyone's call for a bigger WR.

[Dibs]

Methinks this thread betrays some of our posters' ages a bit. The NFL of today, 2008, is a pass-oriented league, more than ever before. More teams are using the slot receiver and spread sets than ever. We just happen to be in a division with the most prolific passing offense ever; a team we have to man-up to twice a season. Interior D-linemen are often as big as the offensive linemen they face now. Tailbacks break down, many teams now use the "tandem" strategy to try to get some sort of run production week after week.

My point is that possessing an elite corner is almost essential to compete today. Jauron knows this. The rest of the front office knows this. McKelvin was the surest bet this draft of securing a player that can develop into an elite at his position. I don't think any of you can argue with that.

Spout the "championships are built from the lines out" line all you want. Its true to a certain extent, and I think the Bills have more than adequately addressed those areas in the last two years by molding Peters into a pro-bowl LT, adding Walker and Dockery, locking up our DEs (who can play, they have showed it in the past), and adding Stroud and Spence.

 

And please stop complaining about McK's height. He's 5'10 1/2". With the kid's athleticism that is plenty tall to cover all but the most monstrous WR's. The front office isn't enamored with midgets. They have added size at the lines where they know it counts the most, and heeded everyone's call for a bigger WR.

Ironic post coming from 'Mr. Unreasonable'.