Bill from NYC Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 My opinion of the pick is well known but believe it or not, I am willing to listen to some degree of reason. I do wonder just how good this kid has to play to satisfy those of you who wanted yet another first round defensive back, and think that Jauron is something less than a loser/jackass for drafting one. At the #11 slot, do we have right to reasonably expect this kid to be a solid player? Should he be more of an impact player than Whitner? Should we expect him to develop into the equal of Clements? Should we expect the next Mel Blount? I have never seen this small college kid play football. I have zero idea how good he is. Do you guys think that he will be as good as Winfield? Burress? Deoin Sanders? I pay no attention to defensive backs in terms of players that I think the Bills need to win. The reason for this is that I have watched 1st round dbs come and go, as the Bills continue to lose. Is there something special about McKelvin that should/would make me think that this time will be different?
drnykterstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 I kind of hope he doesn't start. I think Winfield only started like twice his rookie year. With James, McGee and Greer, we've got pretty good starters. That's what I expect of him in year one (not starting).
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 i think expectations in any/all aspects of life are unfair to the person youre placing them on, and you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. that being said, since he will most likely be getting well compensated and since this IS the NFL we're talking about, i can not say there shouldnt be any expectations placed on him. personally, i wanted a Dlineman or Olineman drafted myself. that didnt happen. but i am still happy with this pick because i understand our need on Defense for a true playmaker in the backfield. i think a fair expectation for him, AS OF THE DAY AFTER THE DRAFT, would be that he is the #1 or #2 CB on our squad come opening day. as far as the long run goes, i think everyone from the Front Office on down hopes and expects him to be AT LEAST the next nate clements. any sort of statistical expectations thrust upon him this year are ridiculous.
Bill from NYC Posted April 28, 2008 Author Posted April 28, 2008 I kind of hope he doesn't start. I think Winfield only started like twice his rookie year. With James, McGee and Greer, we've got pretty good starters. That's what I expect of him in year one (not starting). OK, that covers his first year. Do you think we have a right to expect him to develop into a probowl player? We shunned other positions of need to take him, no? Jauron has drafted 5 defensive backs with his first highest 12 picks since the 3 drafts he has been involved in, and some here like this. Is it because you think McKelvin is that good, or do you think that constantly using their best resources on defensive backs is a good thing for an NFL Franchise to do?
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 if i may respectfully flip the script on you Bill, had we taken Albert, what would your expectations for him be? just totally out of curiosity.
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 OK, that covers his first year. Do you think we have a right to expect him to develop into a probowl player? no, but i dont think we'd have the right to expect that out of Albert or Harvey at this point either.
IDBillzFan Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 I'm not sure what to expect of McKelvin, but if Hardy is a bust, we're all gonna die.
drnykterstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 OK, that covers his first year. Do you think we have a right to expect him to develop into a probowl player? We shunned other positions of need to take him, no? Jauron has drafted 5 defensive backs with his first highest 12 picks since the 3 drafts he has been involved in, and some here like this. Is it because you think McKelvin is that good, or do you think that constantly using their best resources on defensive backs is a good thing for an NFL Franchise to do? Yeah I do expect pro-bowl type talent out of him over the next 4 years. Starting and dependable. Or at least you really hope for that. I hear what you are saying with Jauron and the DB's. It worries me also. Keep drafting these tiny players. Our team was small enough last year and suffered injury abounding for it. I'm just really glad we got Stroud and Spencer to make up for it (hopefully).
Long Island Phil Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 My opinion of the pick is well known but believe it or not, I am willing to listen to some degree of reason. I do wonder just how good this kid has to play to satisfy those of you who wanted yet another first round defensive back, and think that Jauron is something less than a loser/jackass for drafting one. At the #11 slot, do we have right to reasonably expect this kid to be a solid player? Should he be more of an impact player than Whitner? Should we expect him to develop into the equal of Clements? Should we expect the next Mel Blount? I have never seen this small college kid play football. I have zero idea how good he is. Do you guys think that he will be as good as Winfield? Burress? Deoin Sanders? I pay no attention to defensive backs in terms of players that I think the Bills need to win. The reason for this is that I have watched 1st round dbs come and go, as the Bills continue to lose. Is there something special about McKelvin that should/would make me think that this time will be different? Hi Bill! I already have a good idea of what you will expect from a first round DB and I pretty much feel the same way. (see Darelle Revis) Only an immediate contribution will silence the naysayers. We both agree that 1st round selections are a safer bet when the player is huge, nasty and play either OL or DL or a once every 10 yrs cant miss QB and he is none of these. Must say though that the buzz on this guy is really really positive. Could be a great pick. LI Phil
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 Yeah I do expect pro-bowl type talent out of him over the next 4 years. Starting and dependable. Or at least you really hope for that. I hear what you are saying with Jauron and the DB's. It worries me also. Keep drafting these tiny players. Our team was small enough last year and suffered injury abounding for it. I'm just really glad we got Stroud and Spencer to make up for it (hopefully). and James is a big boy too, i believe
Bill from NYC Posted April 28, 2008 Author Posted April 28, 2008 if i may respectfully flip the script on you Bill, had we taken Albert, what would your expectations for him be? just totally out of curiosity. Hey, that is a totally fair question; one that I appreciate. First round guards are rare as compared to other positions. Their success rate is very high. I would expect Albert (injuries notwithstanding) to perform on a high level, similar to perhaps Ruben Brown. Also, it is said that he might even be equipped to slide over to tackle. I understand that any draftee can be a flop but again....few OGs are selected in round 1, and a lot of the ones who were turned out to be great players. Our history with corners is to draft them in round 1, develop them, and watch them leave town.
BillsVet Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 Last year, 3 corners went in Round 1. Darrelle Revis, Leon Hall, and Aaron Ross. All of them contributed to their respective teams and combined to play in 47 games while starting 35. I'd expect to see McKelvin play in all 16 games and be starting near the end of the year. Revis, Hall, and Ross all were big contributors and none of those teams had worse similar quality at CB last year.
Chilly Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 My baseline expectation of the McKelvin pick is that he will develop into a solid #1 CB within 3 years. In other words, I expect him to be within the top-15 or so CBs in the league. My hope, given the pick, is that he will become a Terrence Newman-like CB.
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 Hey, that is a totally fair question; one that I appreciate. First round guards are rare as compared to other positions. Their success rate is very high. I would expect Albert (injuries notwithstanding) to perform on a high level, similar to perhaps Ruben Brown. Also, it is said that he might even be equipped to slide over to tackle. I understand that any draftee can be a flop but again....few OGs are selected in round 1, and a lot of the ones who were turned out to be great players. Our history with corners is to draft them in round 1, develop them, and watch them leave town. excuse me if im out of line, but i think most of your frustration and protesting (and general bellyaching ) over this pick has more to do with the past regimes' handling of players at McKelvin's position. and less to do with McKelvin himself. that should not be used as a detractor in the case of McKelvin. its not his fault that Butler and Donahoe and Marv let a handful of CBs go while they were all in power.
OCinBuffalo Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 I expect him to do the same thing Whitner did in his first month, win best Defensive Player.... Seriously, if you look at how the draft went, the real studs on D line were long gone by the time it got to us. I hated the Jacksonville trade and I think they got ripped off. I don't care what your grade on one player is, this is the draft, one player is too risky and is not worth 3 players. The difference for them is that they think they are only 1-2 players away, so it makes it OK, but I don't agree. In contrast, I think we were wise to stay put. The O line that was available weren't anywhere near graded as high as McKelvin, if you take the 'experts' word for it, and all of them had a flag or two, mostly injuries. I am not for taking the 4th best or 5th best at any position, when the #1 guy at another position is available, in the first round. Why should we settle for 4th place? Also, since we don't draft in a vacuum, I think that the decision to draft McKelvin was helped out massively by of all people, the Pats*. They needed multiple guys at LB, since all of them are older than I am, and so they kept trading down, because teams kept giving them a reason to, and they needed the picks. Except their strategy failed when Cincy took the LB they wanted, hence they traded down again, leaving the door open for McKelvin. So, we ended up with a guy projected by everybody to go at 7-9, at 11 instead. As far as my personal expectations go, I expect him to start and to do only a decent job against Moss, just like he did with all the top receivers in the nation he faced in college(well actually he kicked a lot of their asses, but that was college). That's why we got him and that's what he's supposed to do. Anything less than that will be a disappointment for me.
Simon Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 i think everyone from the Front Office on down hopes and expects him to be AT LEAST the next nate clements. Considering that Clements was the best corner I've ever seen in a Bills uni (with nary a close second) that might be a little high on the expectations side. I mean, I don't think anybody had expectations for Schobel to be the next Bruce Smith AT LEAST. Is it because you think McKelvin is that good, or do you think that constantly using their best resources on defensive backs is a good thing for an NFL Franchise to do?..... Our history with corners is to draft them in round 1, develop them, and watch them leave town. Would any of y'all prefer we not ever take DB's in early rounds and instead pay 50million dollars for a good one in FA? Because if you want good corners it seems you either draft them or pay through the nose for them. While I would prefer to use bluechip picks in the Front7 or OLine, drafting covermen may be a less necessary evil than drastically overpaying for them.
Flbillsfan#1 Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 I wanted a lineman or LB, however I expect him to be at least a nickel back day 1 & a #2 CB by midseason. I also expect him to be a major contributer on special teams & score at least 1 TD (hopefully a game winner)
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 Considering that Clements was the best corner I've ever seen in a Bills uni (with nary a close second) that might be a little high on the expectations side. I mean, I don't think anybody had expectations for Schobel to be the next Bruce Smith AT LEAST. i was only using what we know about McKelvin at this point compared to what we knew about Clements at this point, theyre draft positions. and since McKelvin went at 11 and Clements at 20-something... you see where im going with this.
Dan Posted April 28, 2008 Posted April 28, 2008 OK, that covers his first year. Do you think we have a right to expect him to develop into a probowl player? For me... yes. A player drafted that high should be expected to make the probowl at least a few times in their career. However, I think you can't expect the probowl for at least 3-4 years. Firstly, because it takes several years for most players to develop and become dominating-type players. Secondly, it takes several good years for a player to get the league-wide recognition and be selected to the probowl. So, should he make it? Yes. Should he make it in the next 3 years. No. I think you have to look at this pick in a few ways though. First of all, you clearly think we should have drafted a lineman. Myself, and many others, would agree with that. However, I think we have to consider the possibility that the coaches and FO staff disagree with that. We see Fowler as a liability. Perhaps the FO doesn't. We see guard as an area of upgrade; we see the lack of depth as being a problem. Again, the front office must disagree. Certainly, if they saw the line as an area in need of help they could have drafted for that. And I'm not talking about with pick 11 or even 41. There were plenty of decent linemen on the boards in the later rounds, yet they steadily passed them by. So, my only logical conclusion is that the coaches and FO see the state of our lines differently than we do. Are they right? I don't know. But, I'm certain we'll find out by mid-season. If they're right and the line is creating holes and pass protecting well (regardless of who's in there), then this pick will look alot better. If Trent is rushed and Lynch is fighting to reach the LOS, then this pick will look like a bust, regardless of Mclovin's play. IMO. I think another way you can look at this pick is one of value. They looked at the players and many had McLovin rated in the top 10. So, if a top 10 pick slides to you - do you take him? Add to that the CB is/was a position of (marginal at least) need. And I think they felt they had to select him. If McLovin is off the board, would they have selected a CB? That's perhaps a more important question. Finally, I'll add.. Lori put up some numbers yesterday along the line of 11 starters in the secondary last season, 4 of which are no longer on the team. Just looking at that at face value, CB definitely seems like a much higher need position that OL. So, if you have a highly touted CB and a very good OL guy (Albert) on the board, wo do you pick? The guy that will likely be a starter by the end of the season or a guy that will be a backup? (Again, assuming that they like our line and have no intention of moving a new starter in.) Well, that's all I got as far as trying to justify this pick. My initial reaction was one of uuugh. Similar to the Whitner pick. Although, if he can solidify a spot as well as Whitner has (because like it or not, Whitner has solidified our safety postion) and the line continues to progress as it did last season, then it'll all be water under the bridge. So, we just have to be patient and see if the FO's plan works. But, IMO, they don't have long - one more season. No playoffs this year and heads should role.
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