finknottle Posted April 28, 2008 Share Posted April 28, 2008 Now that we have current state-by-state polling, I took the most recent poll for each state and computed the electoral outcome for each matchup. In a McCain-Obama contest, McCain wins by 40 electoral votes. In a McCain-Clinton contest, Clinton either loses to McCain by 2 electoral votes or wins by 18 (depending on Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, where they are in a dead heat.) Here are the differences between what Obama and Clinton carry: Obama loses Arkansas handily, Clinton wins it handily. (6 delegates) Obama narrowly wins Colorado (9), Clinton loses it handily. Obama loses Florida (27) handily, Clinton wins it narrowly. Obama wins Iowa handily (7), Clinton loses it handily. Obama loses Missouri handily (11), Clinton wins it narrowly. Obama wins NH narrowly (4), Clinton loses it handily. This one suprised me. Obama loses Ohio narrowly (20), Clinton wins it handily. Obama loses WV (5) handily, Clinton wins it narrowly. Obama wins Wisconsin (10) narrowly, Clinton and McCain are tied. The key differences IMO are Florida and Ohio. On paper these results heavily favor Clinton. But Obama puts a few more states in play, such as Texas where he only narrowly loses but Clinton loses handily. So what I did was separate the states into those where a candidate has a lock (polling 6% or higher) and those which are effectively in play. This gives a slight edge to Obama. McCain: 190 Obama: 199 In play: 149 McCain: 209 Clinton: 190 In play: 139 (My apologies for not including Ron Paul. The Media told me not to.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molson_golden2002 Posted April 28, 2008 Share Posted April 28, 2008 If Reverend Wright keeps getting his stupid mug on tv Obama is sunk. At the NAACP last night he made a serious point that he had a book coming later this year and the crowd broke out laughing. He looked surprised, but I guess its pretty obvious he wants to cash in on his 5 minutes of fame while he can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted April 28, 2008 Share Posted April 28, 2008 Can't say I agree with Texas being in play if Obama is the candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted April 28, 2008 Share Posted April 28, 2008 These polls comparing the Democrats to McCain are useless until the general election starts and they're directly competing against each other in September. At this point in 1992 Ross Perot was beating Bush I, with Clinton in 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted April 28, 2008 Author Share Posted April 28, 2008 Can't say I agree with Texas being in play if Obama is the candidate. Me neither. I'm just crunching the numbers as reported - the most recent poll has McCain up only by 1 over Obama, but up 7 over Clinton. I have no explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 These polls comparing the Democrats to McCain are useless until the general election starts and they're directly competing against each other in September. At this point in 1992 Ross Perot was beating Bush I, with Clinton in 3rd. Not a solid predictor, but far from useless, especially with the prospect of a fight looming at the convention. As long as the Obama camp argues that his candidacy puts traditionally red states in play, and the Clinton camp argues that she will carry the large battleground states, I think it makes sense to look at how the electoral map shakes out in terms of what is in play with each candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 ........I'd be one happy mother !@#$er that this shiit was finally over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 ........I'd be one happy mother !@#$er that this shiit was finally over. DING!!! DING!!! DING!!! We have a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 DING!!! DING!!! DING!!! We have a winner! Yeah but the B word would be that campaigning for 2012 would be starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Yeah but the B word would be that campaigning for 2012 would be starting tomorrow. She's been campaigning for 2012 since Obama took the delegate lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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