TSW NFL Draft Party West 2008

[Ramius]

If you'd like to study trend from the 1920s to the 1940s, I'd invite you to do it. In my case I thought a contemporary look at the draft offered more meaningful information.

 

BTW, as I mentioned earlier, all this is explained in my orginal post, where the methodology is outlined and detailed. There is a clear decline in Super Bowl teams beyond 5 years, and unlike you I'm more interested in how the Bill's are trending versus the best teams in the league- not the Raiders. 7 years is the average a 1st round pick stays with their original team.

 

why havent the chiefs won a bunch of super bowls recently? they;ve spent 50% of their "draft equity" on DL?

 

Oh wait, i know why, its because they drafted Dwayne Bowe last year, a sure fire method for failure.

[GG]

If you'd like to study trend from the 1920s to the 1940s, I'd invite you to do it. In my case I thought a contemporary look at the draft offered more meaningful information.

 

BTW, as I mentioned earlier, all this is explained in my orginal post, where the methodolgy is outlined and detailed. There is a clear decline in Super Bowl teams beyond 5 years, and unlike you I'm more interested in how the Bill's are trending versus the best teams in the league- not the Raiders. 7 years is the average a 1st round pick stays with their orignal team.

 

And therein lies the fundamental flaw. A valid analysis bases the conclusion off the entire sample, not just the outliers.

 

You are correct that average playing age is about 6-7 years, but it doesn't account for the actual contributors to the team, and ignores free agents. Giants would not have won the SB without Plex & Strahan, yet they're excluded from your very subjective sample. Plus, if you stick to the 6-7 yr rule, why bother looking at the past 5 SB teams? To do a proper sample, you need to look back 7 years of draft history from each of the last 5 SB teams. Until you do that, your analysis is flawed.

[Kelly the Dog]

You guys are trying to use logic with AKC? Give it up already. That never works. I know, I have tried.

[AKC]

And therein lies the fundamental flaw. A valid analysis bases the conclusion off the entire sample, not just the outliers.

 

You are correct that average playing age is about 6-7 years, but it doesn't account for the actual contributors to the team, and ignores free agents. Giants would not have won the SB without Plex & Strahan, yet they're excluded from your very subjective sample. Plus, if you stick to the 6-7 yr rule, why bother looking at the past 5 SB teams? To do a proper sample, you need to look back 7 years of draft history from each of the last 5 SB teams. Until you do that, your analysis is flawed.

 

A "valid analysis" is based upon an accurate protrayal of the study.

 

My title and methodology clearly states that it is a study of "Super Bowl Teams" trends versus the "Buffalo Bills". If I said it was study of trends of "The Whole NFL" versus the "Buffalo Bills" your false statement would then be accurate.

 

You guys are trying to use logic with AKC? Give it up already. That never works. I know, I have tried.

 

It's especially tough when the math is exactly what it's been represented to be. Facts are the toughest of all opponents, although as is clearly recorded here, that doesn't stop some from contesting them.

[GG]

A "valid analysis" is based upon an accurate protrayal of the study.

 

My title and methodology clearly states that it is a study of "Super Bowl Teams" trends versus the "Buffalo Bills". If I said it was study of trends of "The Whole NFL" versus the "Buffalo Bills" your false statement would then be accurate.

 

Which is precisely why your data and conclusion is flawed. Using your design, the only valid comparison would be Bills draft over last 7 years vs * and Giants over the same period. But that would only give you a sample of 3 teams for your data to be comparable. If you want to introduce other SB teams, you have to look back 7 years. But I think we went over that before.

 

Methodology & data are flawed, therefore the conclusion is flawed. Simple.

[Ramius]

A "valid analysis" is based upon an accurate protrayal of the study.

 

My title and methodology clearly states that it is a study of "Super Bowl Teams" trends versus the "Buffalo Bills". If I said it was study of trends of "The Whole NFL" versus the "Buffalo Bills" your false statement would then be accurate.

 

 

 

It's especially tough when the math is exactly what it's been represented to be. Facts are the toughest of all opponents, although as is clearly recorded here, that doesn't stop some from contesting them.

 

And therein lies the problem. For your "study" to be valid, you need to prove that the reason the above teams got to the super bowl was because they spent "high draft equity" on the DL. The only way to prove that drafting DL = super bowl is to show that the rest of the league doesnt draft DL at the same rate as the super bowl teams, which you havent done.

 

You have also conveniently ignored the examples made of KC and Houston, both teams who has similar "draft equity" spent on the DL and WRs, but neither of them.

 

All you are doing is finding a simple correlation, incorrectly assuming that there is direct causality, and then ignoring the data points that refute your point and dont fit your little "system."

[AKC]

Which is precisely why your data and conclusion is flawed. Using your design, the only valid comparison would be Bills draft over last 7 years vs * and Giants over the same period. But that would only give you a sample of 3 teams for your data to be comparable. If you want to introduce other SB teams, you have to look back 7 years. But I think we went over that before.

 

Methodology & data are flawed, therefore the conclusion is flawed. Simple.

 

The methodology used is exactly what has been portrayed- it's an "equity" or "budget' percentage study of the positional drafting trends of Super Bowl teams versus the Buffalo Bills in the most coherent and valuable time window. If you had some background in math, and you took the time to read the methodology I offerd in the originsal post, you could have done something productive with the time you've wasted making false statements over and over and over in this string. But keep saying them- even if no one else is paying attention to you, it's clearly more soothing to you than recognizing you don't know even the most basic rules of establishing a mathemetical study.

[GG]

And to conclude before I go out to damage the liver, math and statistics are not one and same. While you need to know math to do statistics, adding 2 + 2 isn't the same as finding causality based on a perceived correlation.

 

You have an opinion, and happened to stumble on a percentage that supports that opinion. But it does not equal a trend.

[GG]

The methodology used is exactly what has been portrayed- it's an "equity" or "budget' percentage study of the positional drafting trends of Super Bowl teams versus the Buffalo Bills in the most coherent and valuable time window. If you had some background in math, and you took the time to read the methodology I offerd in the originsal post, you could have done something productive with the time you've wasted making false statements over and over and over in this string. But keep saying them- even if no one else is paying attention to you, it's clearly more soothing to you than recognizing you don't know even the most basic rules of establishing a mathemetical study.

 

I've provided sufficient data that disproves your conclusion. Feel free to ignore it.

[AKC]

And to conclude before I go out to damage the liver, math and statistics are not one and same. While you need to know math to do statistics, adding 2 + 2 isn't the same as finding causality based on a perceived correlation.

 

You have an opinion, and happened to stumble on a percentage that supports that opinion. But it does not equal a trend.

 

Trend- 1. the general course or prevailing tendency

 

The tendancy of Super Bowl teams to select specific positions early in the draft is precisely what the study reveals.

 

I'll be at the bar before you. I need to do a walkthrough of the scene of the Draft Party and it's two blocks from my office. Slainte'

[Ramius]

The methodology used is exactly what has been portrayed- it's an "equity" or "budget' percentage study of the positional drafting trends of Super Bowl teams versus the Buffalo Bills in the most coherent and valuable time window. If you had some background in math, and you took the time to read the methodology I offerd in the originsal post, you could have done something productive with the time you've wasted making false statements over and over and over in this string. But keep saying them- even if no one else is paying attention to you, it's clearly more soothing to you than recognizing you don't know even the most basic rules of establishing a mathemetical study.

 

And my statistical study says that the Bills havent been as good as the "top teams" because they draft too many players that come from colleges with the word "state" in their name. They drafted 16 since 2001, and the "top teams" average 11.

 

My study and yours are eerily similar. Both of us took a loose correlation, ignored opposing data points, and passed it off as "fundamental statistics."

[Ramius]

Trend- 1. the general course or prevailing tendency

 

The tendancy of Super Bowl teams to select specific positions early in the draft is precisely what the study reveals.

 

I'll be at the bar before you. I need to do a walkthrough of the scene of the Draft Party and it's two blocks from my office. Slainte'

 

Your study doesnt take into account teams that spend high picks on the DL and are unsuccessful, such as KC and houston. The simplest reason you ignore these facts is because they dont fit your little rant.

[AKC]

Your study doesnt take into account teams that spend high picks on the DL and are unsuccessful, such as KC and houston. The simplest reason you ignore these facts is because they dont fit your little rant.

 

My study is complete. It shows that the best teams in the game invest more at thet top of the draft in defense than the Bills, that the best teams invest in TE where the Bills have not and that the best teams substantially favor DL investment over WR while the Bills do just the opposite.

 

You have demanded earlier that the only information you would accept was a complete study of all teams in the NFL and that anything else would be incomplete. If you'd care to do a study of all the NFL teams for the same period, I'm all ears. If instead you wish to display your own hypocrisy by trying to make some point supporting your desire to reach for a WR at the 11 pick, I'm not interested in listening. Let me know when you "complete" the study you insisted would be the only valid use of the positional trending information, or for goodness sakes give yourself a break from embarrassing yourself.

[R. Rich]

This year's annual Los Angeles Bill's Backers Draft Party, sponsored by a contingent of TSW alumni, takes place at 3110 Santa Monica Blvd. in Santa Monica. More details and directions on our wesbite-

 

TSW West Draft Party

 

You won't want to miss the action-

 

Big Bob Lamb will once again be balancing the Hot Waitress Contest against his deft management of the Draft Board.

 

You'll discover whether Kelly the Dog was actually raised by a feral pack of wolves.

 

And we'll be holding the "Find The Lost Ramius Marbles" contest. The winner will recieve signed busts of Peter Warrick, Koren Robinson and Mike Williams.

 

PM me with any questions-

 

 

One of these days, bro. I swear.

[AKC]

One of these days, bro. I swear.

 

We've taken to setting up a stool with a half empty plate of wings in front of it and pretending you're there ;-)

[R. Rich]

We've taken to setting up a stool with a half empty plate of wings in front of it and pretending you're there ;-)

 

 

Half empty???

[Fan in San Diego]

Sounds like a lot of fun ! Too far to drive though for me ! I'll watch round 1 and our pick in round 2 at home and then head out to a casino on Saturday !

[AKC]

Sounds like a lot of fun ! Too far to drive though for me ! I'll watch round 1 and our pick in round 2 at home and then head out to a casino on Saturday !

 

Take the train to Downtown LA and grab RTD #4, it'll drop you off a block from the scene of the crime.

[AKC]

Got some calls about the regular $2.50 Bills draft special being in effect for the Draft Party- I just confirmed it's a go.

[Fan in San Diego]

Take the train to Downtown LA and grab RTD #4, it'll drop you off a block from the scene of the crime.

Thanks for the tip AKC.