Can Someone Explain the Logic in reaching for a WR

[DreamOnDan]

I appreciated your posts. I do a lot of studying to form my own opinions. I can tell that you and a handful of other posters do the same. I appreciate everybody's points of view and try very hard to not be a jerk, or push my feelings onto others. I very much agree with you on a ton of stuff, this being one of the biggest topics recently.

 

The Bills have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Hardy will help the Bills score more td. Davis is the most NFL ready te out there in my opinion. It would be awesome to add a TD maker and a every down TE that is a threat.

 

I think that most people really need to check their expectations for the player that they are trying to "push". I for one am trying to talk about positions of need and players available at those positions. Realistically, what does somebody expect to get from a wr? I can expect 50 catches from our #2 wr this year. Is that realistic? I think so... Ok, so how many td could Thomas score this year? I don't know. I can honestly say that I think that Hardy is good for 10td every year. Maybe he catches 50 passes maybe he catches 100 passes. But I think he can step right in and cause matchup problems all day.

 

Think of what a combination of a TD making wr and a legit threat at TE can open up for an offense? With the safety unable to play in the box, we can realistically expect Lynch's average per carry to skyrocket. We can realistically expect less sacks, more under routes open, more screens, better play action success, and most importantly more points. The main reason that our rb position doesn't catch screen/flare passes is because he can't get away from the safety. Currently, Who else does the strong safety have to worry about? Reed? Royal? I don't expect that to change with an addition of whoever slips(for good reason) into the 2nd at Wr and whoever slips(for good reason) into the 3rd at TE.

 

So let me ask this question, not to you Astro. But to everyone in complete disagreement with what I have to say. What do you realistically expect to get out of our 1st and 2nd rd draft pick this season? How about beyond that? I expect that our 1st and 2nd rd pick does something to change the way defenses defend us. It is not Fairchilds fault. I would be able to come up with a sure fire plan to stop this offense. Double Lee, stack the box, safety keys on RB. Bills are stopped. LOL, its funny cause its true.

 

The way I see it is like this. This is the perfect scenario for the Bills to be drafting. Teams aren't putting a high value on Wr in this draft. The Bills can't afford to miss at WR. They will have their choice of all of them. TE is a similar position this year. The Bills should realistically have thier choice of TE this year. If they take anything else other than WR in rd 1 and TE in rd 2, they run a very high risk of not getting the best player available at these positions in this draft. What more can you ask for than the absolute best WR and absolute best Te when they are obviously a teams biggest needs. Every addition after that is just great! Its not like the Bills are gonna ignore our needs elsewhere. Its just that they won't be getting the top player at those positions. Its not very likely that Buffalo will be able to address their needs with the best player at their biggest weekness every season. At this point will be impossible to convince me that there isn't at least one superstar available at every single position in every single NFL draft. Show me otherwise...

[ax4782]

I appreciated your posts. I do a lot of studying to form my own opinions. I can tell that you and a handful of other posters do the same. I appreciate everybody's points of view and try very hard to not be a jerk, or push my feelings onto others. I very much agree with you on a ton of stuff, this being one of the biggest topics recently.

 

The Bills have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Hardy will help the Bills score more td. Davis is the most NFL ready te out there in my opinion. It would be awesome to add a TD maker and a every down TE that is a threat.

 

I think that most people really need to check their expectations for the player that they are trying to "push". I for one am trying to talk about positions of need and players available at those positions. Realistically, what does somebody expect to get from a wr? I can expect 50 catches from our #2 wr this year. Is that realistic? I think so... Ok, so how many td could Thomas score this year? I don't know. I can honestly say that I think that Hardy is good for 10td every year. Maybe he catches 50 passes maybe he catches 100 passes. But I think he can step right in and cause matchup problems all day.

 

Think of what a combination of a TD making wr and a legit threat at TE can open up for an offense? With the safety unable to play in the box, we can realistically expect Lynch's average per carry to skyrocket. We can realistically expect less sacks, more under routes open, more screens, better play action success, and most importantly more points. The main reason that our rb position doesn't catch screen/flare passes is because he can't get away from the safety. Currently, Who else does the strong safety have to worry about? Reed? Royal? I don't expect that to change with an addition of whoever slips(for good reason) into the 2nd at Wr and whoever slips(for good reason) into the 3rd at TE.

 

So let me ask this question, not to you Astro. But to everyone in complete disagreement with what I have to say. What do you realistically expect to get out of our 1st and 2nd rd draft pick this season? How about beyond that? I expect that our 1st and 2nd rd pick does something to change the way defenses defend us. It is not Fairchilds fault. I would be able to come up with a sure fire plan to stop this offense. Double Lee, stack the box, safety keys on RB. Bills are stopped. LOL, its funny cause its true.

 

The way I see it is like this. This is the perfect scenario for the Bills to be drafting. Teams aren't putting a high value on Wr in this draft. The Bills can't afford to miss at WR. They will have their choice of all of them. TE is a similar position this year. The Bills should realistically have thier choice of TE this year. If they take anything else other than WR in rd 1 and TE in rd 2, they run a very high risk of not getting the best player available at these positions in this draft. What more can you ask for than the absolute best WR and absolute best Te when they are obviously a teams biggest needs. Every addition after that is just great! Its not like the Bills are gonna ignore our needs elsewhere. Its just that they won't be getting the top player at those positions. Its not very likely that Buffalo will be able to address their needs with the best player at their biggest weekness every season. At this point will be impossible to convince me that there isn't at least one superstar available at every single position in every single NFL draft. Show me otherwise...

 

Very nice post. I couldn't have said it any better. The Bills have NEEDS to fill and frankly, I don't care which person they get to fill those needs, as long as it is the best player available at that position. I feel like Thomas, Hardy, or Kelly are all viable options, though I would prefer Hardy or Thomas. I like you expect our #2 to have a 50-700-5 TD year. That would be enough to take the pressure off of Evans. I believe our needs in order are as follows.

 

1. WR

2. TE

3. C

4. CB

5. DE

6. LB

7. FB

8. DT

9. RG

10. S

11. T

12. P

13. K

 

Buffalo should address their needs in order of necessity. I frankly wounldn't mind us taking two WRs this draft. One at #11 and another with one of our 4s. I think Buffalo takes a TE in the second, be it Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett or Dustin Kellar. Any of the three are play makers.

 

Again, really nice post. I like it when people think with logic and reason.

[Brandon]

The probability that a defender will make an immediate impact is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than that of a WR -- that's a fact.

 

If the team's scouting department is good, they should be able to find a good receiver after round 1 and get immediate help from a defensive playmaker at #11.

 

I'm not sure that its a fact or not. Defensive linemen, in particular, often take a couple of years to adjust to the strength of the OL they face in the NFL.

 

The one area where I think a rookie WR can certainly have a big impact on this team is in the redzone. Even in the worst case scenario, if you bring in a 6'4" WR against the 5'10" CBs in the AFC East, at the very least, he's going to draw some attention away from the other receivers on the team, allowing them to make plays, even if the rookie himself may not be doing so on a consistent basis. It might indirectly lead to an additional 10 TDs next year and that's worth a lot, especially on a team that scored only 20 TDs offensively last year.

[Brandon]

Buffalo should address their needs in order of necessity. I frankly wounldn't mind us taking two WRs this draft. One at #11 and another with one of our 4s. I think Buffalo takes a TE in the second, be it Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett or Dustin Kellar. Any of the three are play makers.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills take as many as three WRs in this draft, though obviously two probably wouldn't be high picks. They have only three quality WRs on the roster. They need at least five, if not six. I think they'll probably draft Devin Thomas at 11, followed by another in R4-6, and one more in the 7th. That 4th-6th will probably be a slot guy to compete with Reed and Parrish, while the R7 guy a backup redzone target.

 

I'm not as sure about a R2 TE, though. I believe they will select a CB in R2, while the quality is still there. They should still get a solid TE prospect in R3 or could even consider trading back up late into R2 if necessary.

[DreamOnDan]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills take as many as three WRs in this draft, though obviously two probably wouldn't be high picks. They have only three quality WRs on the roster. They need at least five, if not six. I think they'll probably draft Devin Thomas at 11, followed by another in R4-6, and one more in the 7th. That 4th-6th will probably be a slot guy to compete with Reed and Parrish, while the R7 guy a backup redzone target.

 

I'm not as sure about a R2 TE, though. I believe they will select a CB in R2, while the quality is still there. They should still get a solid TE prospect in R3 or could even consider trading back up late into R2 if necessary.

I agree 100%. Its a personal preferance of mine to get the best TE. If that is not possible at 41 then I love the value of Brandon Flowers or Antoine Cason if one is still available...

[obie_wan]

I'm not sure that its a fact or not. Defensive linemen, in particular, often take a couple of years to adjust to the strength of the OL they face in the NFL.

 

The one area where I think a rookie WR can certainly have a big impact on this team is in the redzone. Even in the worst case scenario, if you bring in a 6'4" WR against the 5'10" CBs in the AFC East, at the very least, he's going to draw some attention away from the other receivers on the team, allowing them to make plays, even if the rookie himself may not be doing so on a consistent basis. It might indirectly lead to an additional 10 TDs next year and that's worth a lot, especially on a team that scored only 20 TDs offensively last year.

 

For any receiver to be a factor in the redzone, the team actually has to use plays designed to throw the ball into teh endzone.

 

Now that Fairchild is gone, all of the WRs on the rosters become much better red zone threats than last year because Turk will hopefully throw to the end zone.

 

A tall WR is not the only answer.

 

A top flight TE is probably more of a need than a tall WR.

[DreamOnDan]

For any receiver to be a factor in the redzone, the team actually has to use plays designed to throw the ball into teh endzone.

 

Now that Fairchild is gone, all of the WRs on the rosters become much better red zone threats than last year because Turk will hopefully throw to the end zone.

 

A tall WR is not the only answer.

 

A top flight TE is probably more of a need than a tall WR.

The dynamic of the offense could significantly change with the acquisition of both. I'm not entirely against drafting on the lines. I like the OL in particular. I actually think that DL is a strength.

[obie_wan]

I certainly agree that WR is a need, and a big one at that. But that doesn't mean you reach for one at #11. If the Bills have the opportunity to take a shut-down corner or a very good lineman at #11, they should simply close their eyes and take him. Yes, the Bills spent tons of $ on the offensive and defensive lines -- that doesn't mean that they have become strengths. While I like the Stroud acquisition, I don't expect him to be a savior by any means. He has a lot of mileage on him and you have to wonder why Jacksonville was so willing to part with him in a trade to a team they will might be competing with for a wildcard berth.

 

There will be good, tall receivers available in the second round. Malcom Kelly's stock has dropped considerably. James Hardy and Jordy Nelson look like very solid prospects. I think the overall TEAM will be better if they take the best player available in Rd 1 and take the top receiver or tight end who falls to their lap in Rd 2.

 

If the Bills would spend high picks on the OL - they would not have to spend $75 mil on other team's castoffs.

 

For the money invested in the line - they were pitiful on getting 1 yard to keep drives alive.

[Pete]

If the Bills would spend high picks on the OL - they would not have to spend $75 mil on other team's castoffs.

 

For the money invested in the line - they were pitiful on getting 1 yard to keep drives alive.

I am betting you are a glass is half empty person Obie

[BrooklynBills]

The dynamic of the offense could significantly change with the acquisition of both. I'm not entirely against drafting on the lines. I like the OL in particular. I actually think that DL is a strength.

 

The facts would disagree with you. How did the Giants stop the patriots? Pass Rush. how is a tall receiver going to put pressure on Tom brady. The Dolphins, the patriots, and the jets are building dominant O-Lines, as are the Bills it would seem. We added a backup DT who had a career high of 3 sacks last year and a starting DT whose career high of 6.5 sacks came in 2002. We have not upgraded our pass rush ability significantly, and all our current DEs will be over 30 by the beginning of next season. You want 50 catches 700 yards and 5 TDs. James Jones had those numbers last year - he was taken in the 3rd round. You do not draft secondary offensive threats - which is what Thomas, Hardy, Sweed, and Kelly will be - with the 11th pick in the draft. Its a waste of a valuable pick. Don't get me wrong. I would love to get one of those wideouts on our team, but not at 11. trade back into the first round and get one at the end of the first round or wait for one to be there at 41.

[DreamOnDan]

The facts would disagree with you. How did the Giants stop the patriots? Pass Rush. how is a tall receiver going to put pressure on Tom brady. The Dolphins, the patriots, and the jets are building dominant O-Lines, as are the Bills it would seem. We added a backup DT who had a career high of 3 sacks last year and a starting DT whose career high of 6.5 sacks came in 2002. We have not upgraded our pass rush ability significantly, and all our current DEs will be over 30 by the beginning of next season. You want 50 catches 700 yards and 5 TDs. James Jones had those numbers last year - he was taken in the 3rd round. You do not draft secondary offensive threats - which is what Thomas, Hardy, Sweed, and Kelly will be - with the 11th pick in the draft. Its a waste of a valuable pick. Don't get me wrong. I would love to get one of those wideouts on our team, but not at 11. trade back into the first round and get one at the end of the first round or wait for one to be there at 41.

So are you implying that Plaxico Burress isn't an important component to the Giants team?

 

I know that Hardy isn't going to put pressure on Brady but that is a totally different subject.

 

The DT are going to be signifigantly better than the last 4 years.

 

Don't you think that Kyle Williams is a great #4 DT? I do.

 

I like a healthy Schobel, Kelsay, Denney, Johnson, McCargo combination for a damn good pass rush.

 

I didn't state that I wanted 50 700 and 5 td from a 1st rd WR at any point. I stated that I wanted defenses to actually have to figure out a way to defend our offense.

 

You could seriously gameplan to stop this pathetic bunch of offensive players.

 

ITs not about what # pick the Bills have. It just doesn't. They like every other team evaluate needs and talent then make the most logical pick. Its about needs, not about who is on the board. There are exceptions but it is highly unlikely that any of the exception players (usually 5-8) will be available at #11. If one is take him. Because there are only a handful of potential HOF players in each draft class. The NFL is getting way better at evaluating talent now with so many opinions. There is a tremendous success rate in recent drafts for a very high percentage of teams. The calculated risks usually don't pan out.

 

I think that if they like a guy than that is who they should draft. Only if he is guaranteed not to be there at #41.

[Brandon]

The facts would disagree with you. How did the Giants stop the patriots? Pass Rush. how is a tall receiver going to put pressure on Tom brady. The Dolphins, the patriots, and the jets are building dominant O-Lines, as are the Bills it would seem. We added a backup DT who had a career high of 3 sacks last year and a starting DT whose career high of 6.5 sacks came in 2002. We have not upgraded our pass rush ability significantly, and all our current DEs will be over 30 by the beginning of next season. You want 50 catches 700 yards and 5 TDs. James Jones had those numbers last year - he was taken in the 3rd round. You do not draft secondary offensive threats - which is what Thomas, Hardy, Sweed, and Kelly will be - with the 11th pick in the draft. Its a waste of a valuable pick. Don't get me wrong. I would love to get one of those wideouts on our team, but not at 11. trade back into the first round and get one at the end of the first round or wait for one to be there at 41.

 

I'm not really that concerned about the Patriots or how the Giants beat them. I'm really not. The Bills simply are not competitive with them at this time and realistically will not be for at least another year or two.

 

Its funny that everyone has jumped on the Giants bandwagon as the blueprint to beat the Patriots. And it probably is. The problem? The Giants, for all their goodness, allowed 36 TDs defensively last year (more than the Bills D, I might add). Yes, folks...they allowed 16 more TDs than the Bills offense scored last year. In other words, put all of the Giants defensive players on this team, and this team STILL loses 9-10 games next year. The difference? The Giants actually have an offense, too.

 

This team will not win consistently until it can score at least 20 points per game. It doesn't mean we should definitely take a WR at 11. But the point I'm illustrating is simply this: for all those that are on the defensive end bandwagon, realize that the Giants defense, as good as their pass rush is, still gave up yards and still gave up points. A WR may not turn this team into an instant winner, either, but this team's offense could be stymied by fighting through a wet paper bag. Until that changes, they're not going to win, no matter how many defensive ends you draft.

[BrooklynBills]

I'm not sure that its a fact or not. Defensive linemen, in particular, often take a couple of years to adjust to the strength of the OL they face in the NFL.

 

The one area where I think a rookie WR can certainly have a big impact on this team is in the redzone. Even in the worst case scenario, if you bring in a 6'4" WR against the 5'10" CBs in the AFC East, at the very least, he's going to draw some attention away from the other receivers on the team, allowing them to make plays, even if the rookie himself may not be doing so on a consistent basis. It might indirectly lead to an additional 10 TDs next year and that's worth a lot, especially on a team that scored only 20 TDs offensively last year.

 

2007: 10th pick Amobi Okoye, 11th pick Patrick Willis

2006: 12th pick Haloti Ngata, 13th pick Kameiron Wimbley

2005: 11th pick DeMarcus Ware, 12th pick Shawne Merriman

2004: 12th pick Jonathan Vilma, 14th pick Tommie Harris

2003: 9th pick Kevin Williams, 10th pick Terrell Suggs, 12th pick Jimmy Kennedy (BUST), 13th pick Ty Warren, 14th pick Micheal Haynes (BUST)

2002: 11th pick Dwight Freeney, 12th pick Wendell Bryant (BUST)

 

History would suggest that we would an immediate impact defensive player. Save the three busts, what do all those players have in common? Oh, yeah. We don't have a single defensive player like them. You need those types of players to win in this league and previous draft history suggests that they are drafted between picks 9 and 14. It just so happens that we have a pick right in the middle of that area.

 

Pure pass rushing defensive end vs. number 2 wideout. I don't think there is even a debate about this. You take the DE every time.

[Brandon]

2007: 10th pick Amobi Okoye, 11th pick Patrick Willis

2006: 12th pick Haloti Ngata, 13th pick Kameiron Wimbley

2005: 11th pick DeMarcus Ware, 12th pick Shawne Merriman

2004: 12th pick Jonathan Vilma, 14th pick Tommie Harris

2003: 9th pick Kevin Williams, 10th pick Terrell Suggs, 12th pick Jimmy Kennedy (BUST), 13th pick Ty Warren, 14th pick Micheal Haynes (BUST)

2002: 11th pick Dwight Freeney, 12th pick Wendell Bryant (BUST)

 

History would suggest that we would an immediate impact defensive player. Save the three busts, what do all those players have in common? Oh, yeah. We don't have a single defensive player like them. You need those types of players to win in this league and previous draft history suggests that they are drafted between picks 9 and 14. It just so happens that we have a pick right in the middle of that area.

 

Pure pass rushing defensive end vs. number 2 wideout. I don't think there is even a debate about this. You take the DE every time.

 

I agree, the Bills do need playmakers, but they're needed on both sides of the ball. I have no problems with drafting a DE at 11, but I also hold no illusions that it'll turn this team into a winner alone. It won't. I also remain unconvinced that Harvey is a game-changing DE that will provide a serious upgrade, especially in the immediate term.

 

I do not classify the #2 WR as subordinate in some way to the #1. Both are starters, both will play 90%+ of the snaps. Both need to be able to play. Its just like the supposed #2 CB. If that guy can't play or is limited in some way, the opposing team will game plan around that weakness and use it to cripple your offense/defense as a whole.

[DreamOnDan]

2007: 10th pick Amobi Okoye, 11th pick Patrick Willis

2006: 12th pick Haloti Ngata, 13th pick Kameiron Wimbley

2005: 11th pick DeMarcus Ware, 12th pick Shawne Merriman

2004: 12th pick Jonathan Vilma, 14th pick Tommie Harris

2003: 9th pick Kevin Williams, 10th pick Terrell Suggs, 12th pick Jimmy Kennedy (BUST), 13th pick Ty Warren, 14th pick Micheal Haynes (BUST)

2002: 11th pick Dwight Freeney, 12th pick Wendell Bryant (BUST)

 

History would suggest that we would an immediate impact defensive player. Save the three busts, what do all those players have in common? Oh, yeah. We don't have a single defensive player like them. You need those types of players to win in this league and previous draft history suggests that they are drafted between picks 9 and 14. It just so happens that we have a pick right in the middle of that area.

 

Pure pass rushing defensive end vs. number 2 wideout. I don't think there is even a debate about this. You take the DE every time.

That is some good stuff BrooklynBills! I'd love to have any of those guys. It seems that we are set at their positions, but any upgrade would be great. Most of in not all of these guys would upgrade the Bills talent. History has proven that there are traditionally good Defensive players available around the #11 spot. I disagree about the DE every time though. I really like what James Hardy brings to the table. More so than Harvey or a lesser ranked DE.

[BrooklynBills]

So are you implying that Plaxico Burress isn't an important component to the Giants team?

 

I know that Hardy isn't going to put pressure on Brady but that is a totally different subject.

 

The DT are going to be signifigantly better than the last 4 years.

 

Don't you think that Kyle Williams is a great #4 DT? I do.

 

I like a healthy Schobel, Kelsay, Denney, Johnson, McCargo combination for a damn good pass rush.

 

I didn't state that I wanted 50 700 and 5 td from a 1st rd WR at any point. I stated that I wanted defenses to actually have to figure out a way to defend our offense.

 

You could seriously gameplan to stop this pathetic bunch of offensive players.

 

ITs not about what # pick the Bills have. It just doesn't. They like every other team evaluate needs and talent then make the most logical pick. Its about needs, not about who is on the board. There are exceptions but it is highly unlikely that any of the exception players (usually 5-8) will be available at #11. If one is take him. Because there are only a handful of potential HOF players in each draft class. The NFL is getting way better at evaluating talent now with so many opinions. There is a tremendous success rate in recent drafts for a very high percentage of teams. The calculated risks usually don't pan out.

 

I think that if they like a guy than that is who they should draft. Only if he is guaranteed not to be there at #41.

 

We have to draft a DE who will be able to start by the beginning of the 2010 season. We are in a position to do that right now. We do not have a any young DE talent. Which means next year or two years from now we will be in the same problem that we are in now. Only then it will be the DE position that we will feel forced to draft with our first round pick not a WR. We cannot keep drafting like this. It is what will keep us a mediocre team with mediocre talent. You use the draft to build the foundation of your team, not fill needs.

 

No one is gameplanning to stop Kelly, Sweed, Hardy, or Thomas. They are not that good. Listen, I won't hate Devin Thomas at 11. But its just a bad philosophy to keep going "Oh, what position do I have a hole at? I'll just plug in this rookie." I mean especially with wide receiver. I don't care what anyone says. We do not have a good foundation for the defensive line. Two players under 25, and one of those guys should never be a starter. One guy in his prime. One guy a career backup. One guy on the downside of his career. And one guy coming off a serious leg injury. Every good defense has good young talented defensive lineman. We have one good young talented guy - McCargo. I just don't think that the Bills have spent the past two years rebuilding the defense to stop drafting young defensive players in this draft.

[DreamOnDan]

We have to draft a DE who will be able to start by the beginning of the 2010 season. We are in a position to do that right now. We do not have a any young DE talent. Which means next year or two years from now we will be in the same problem that we are in now. Only then it will be the DE position that we will feel forced to draft with our first round pick not a WR. We cannot keep drafting like this. It is what will keep us a mediocre team with mediocre talent. You use the draft to build the foundation of your team, not fill needs.

 

No one is gameplanning to stop Kelly, Sweed, Hardy, or Thomas. They are not that good. Listen, I won't hate Devin Thomas at 11. But its just a bad philosophy to keep going "Oh, what position do I have a hole at? I'll just plug in this rookie." I mean especially with wide receiver. I don't care what anyone says. We do not have a good foundation for the defensive line. Two players under 25, and one of those guys should never be a starter. One guy in his prime. One guy a career backup. One guy on the downside of his career. And one guy coming off a serious leg injury. Every good defense has good young talented defensive lineman. We have one good young talented guy - McCargo. I just don't think that the Bills have spent the past two years rebuilding the defense to stop drafting young defensive players in this draft.

I respect your point, but I just disagree. I think that the Buffalo Bills have the best DL rotation of any team I can think of. Very deep.

[BrooklynBills]

I respect your point, but I just disagree. I think that the Buffalo Bills have the best DL rotation of any team I can think of. Very deep.

 

DTs I think you are right. and we have some youth there. DEs might get us through this season, but then what. Again, Schobel and Denney will both be 32 at the start of next year and Kelsay will be 30. Not exactly good ages for DEs.

[obie_wan]

I respect your point, but I just disagree. I think that the Buffalo Bills have the best DL rotation of any team I can think of. Very deep.

 

you, sir , are seriously deluded.

[DreamOnDan]

you, sir , are seriously deluded.

Maybe?