Would drafting Keith Rivers be a much smarter move

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

You havent heard of him, so he's no good? I'm guessing the Bills scouting staff has probably heard of Devin Thomas before, and perhaps even saw a game or 2 of his.

Yeah !!! No one had heard of Eric Flowers until we took him late in the first round and looked how he turned out.

Actually, Thomas looks the part but who is to know ? He has the great size/speed ratio and we could sure use a receiver. I'm sure the Bills have so much tape on these guys to make an informed decision .. Dear Lord I hope so !!

[Mike formerly from Florida]

Bingo...We have four areas of immediate need...maybe five if you include cornerback (I don't..but many do). I see us trading down and getting one of many quality wr's late in the first, a TE, DE and Center in the next few choices. I can go sooo far (although I'm not big on the idea) of drafting a can't miss corner if there is one available in round 2. Linebacker is looking pretty good just the way it is.

 

 

If Rivers is available at 11, we take him. He will be the highest graded player when our spot comes up. Many so-called experts feel that Rivers will be a good pash-rusher and super play-maker in the NFL. The linebacker position looks good today--maybe not next year. The Bills lack linebacker depth and the chances of one of them getting hurt is 50/50. I'll take a dynamic player in my rotation anytime. We can draft a solid wide receiver in the second (maybe Kelly slips) and even move up by trading our fourth if necessary. Then get your TE or CB (whoever grades out higher) in the third and desperately needed center with the compensation pick in the fourth.

 

ALTHOUGH I have no problem going back to 19 and getting Lito Shepherd, but I would think we have to give up something else too.

[ax4782]

Here's what I think...

 

Probability of Rivers being an very good player (possible pro bowler) on the next level should be around 90%. (given the high success rate at the LB position)

Probability of Devin Thomas (not pro bowl material) being a very good player on the next level should be around 40-50%. (given the high bust rate at the WR position)

 

 

There's a big risk in taking Devin Thomas at #11 and passing over players that are almost guaranteed high impact like Rivers. I'd much rather finish off the defensive rebuild and get a WR with a much longer track record.

 

There's a big risk in taking almost anyone in the draft. However, where you get you "%s" on success and failure must be from the same place that the original post emerged. The fact is you clearly did not see Devin Thomas play a single game at MSU, against Big Ten competition. The guy is a straight baller and has the same size and speed as most of the solid or better receiving talent in the league. His chances are better than you give for him. Also Rivers is overrated. Sorry, but that's my opinion. His stock is slipping and I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to the mid teens. We don't need an LB and we do need a receiver, more than any other position.

[deep2evans]

This thread is a perfect microcosm of the entire board over the past few months. Everyone insisting that player X is better than player Y, but it's all just a huge guess at this point. I understand the addicting nature of the draft, as I get completely consumed in it every April, but to throw out these defining comments like "Thomas will be bust while Rivers is a sure fire stud," is just foolishness. Mike Williams and Charles Rogers were sure fire studs too.

 

And as the only thing I can have a definitive opinion on at this point is Angelo Crowell. Last year I watched that guy mature into one of the better OLBs I've seen. Not sure why we want to run him out of town but whatever.

[K-9]

This thread is a perfect microcosm of the entire board over the past few months. Everyone insisting that player X is better than player Y, but it's all just a huge guess at this point. I understand the addicting nature of the draft, as I get completely consumed in it every April, but to throw out these defining comments like "Thomas will be bust while Rivers is a sure fire stud," is just foolishness. Mike Williams and Charles Rogers were sure fire studs too.

 

And as the only thing I can have a definitive opinion on at this point is Angelo Crowell. Last year I watched that guy mature into one of the better OLBs I've seen. Not sure why we want to run him out of town but whatever.

 

With all due respect, if Crowell is one of the better LBs you've seen, what is the basis for your comparison then? He's one of the best LBs I've seen on the Bills the last 2 seasons but that's absolutely as far as I'll go. Watching him on game tapes is maddening. For every good play he makes he makes 2 bad ones. His pursuit angles are inconsistent at best which tells me he's not disciplined and he is below average in pass coverage, despite his INT against the 'Pukes. I just don't see greatness in him at all. Hopefully he proves me wrong and gives the Bills a reason to re-up and the rest of the league a reason to take him away after his contract is up.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[deep2evans]

With all due respect, if Crowell is one of the better LBs you've seen, what is the basis for your comparison then? He's one of the best LBs I've seen on the Bills the last 2 seasons but that's absolutely as far as I'll go. Watching him on game tapes is maddening. For every good play he makes he makes 2 bad ones. His pursuit angles are inconsistent at best which tells me he's not disciplined and he is below average in pass coverage, despite his INT against the 'Pukes. I just don't see greatness in him at all. Hopefully he proves me wrong and gives the Bills a reason to re-up and the rest of the league a reason to take him away after his contract is up.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

he was highlighted by a few national all-pro teams for a reason. LBs thrive behind solid D-lines, and to say ours was weak last year is a gross understatement. the guy is a gamer and a future pro-bowler in my opinion.

[BrooklynBills]

Why draft a backup with the first pick?

 

Rivers would immediately be our best LB. Crowell and his lack of gap responsibility and his poor zone drops can go to the bench.

[BrooklynBills]

This thread is a perfect microcosm of the entire board over the past few months. Everyone insisting that player X is better than player Y, but it's all just a huge guess at this point. I understand the addicting nature of the draft, as I get completely consumed in it every April, but to throw out these defining comments like "Thomas will be bust while Rivers is a sure fire stud," is just foolishness. Mike Williams and Charles Rogers were sure fire studs too.

 

And as the only thing I can have a definitive opinion on at this point is Angelo Crowell. Last year I watched that guy mature into one of the better OLBs I've seen. Not sure why we want to run him out of town but whatever.

 

Mike Williams had bust written all over him. Charles Rogers is a bit of different story. He could have been good. Plenty of talent...too much cocaine. As far as Crowell goes, no one wants to run him out of town, but an upgrade would not be a terrible thing.

[The Jokeman]

he was highlighted by a few national all-pro teams for a reason. LBs thrive behind solid D-lines, and to say ours was weak last year is a gross understatement. the guy is a gamer and a future pro-bowler in my opinion.

And again he is only under contract for this season and with no guaranteeing he's going to return in 2009 it might be wise to get his replacement here sooner then later. Not to mention do we know how good Poz really is based on less then a handful of regular season games? Not to mention Kawika Mitchell isn't an All Pro either, and while he might be better then Ellison but there's no telling how he'll fit in. I would much rather get a quality guy like Rivers at 11, take a WR like Malcolm Kelly or Early Doucet at pick #41 as again the draft is about the best collection of players. As by most scouting reports Rivers grades out higher then Sweed and/or Thomas when comparing player by player.

[K-9]

he was highlighted by a few national all-pro teams for a reason. LBs thrive behind solid D-lines, and to say ours was weak last year is a gross understatement. the guy is a gamer and a future pro-bowler in my opinion.

 

I'd be interested in seeing what publications mentioned him and in what context. Number of tackles maybe? Our best starting LB should have high tackle totals when he's on the field as long as ours was last year.

 

Yes we had problems with our D-line and we had to adapt different responsibilities for our DLmen in light of all the injuries last year. Especially early on. But I would ask you to review Crowell's performance. It's easy to say it's the Dlines fault but on many occassions they did their job correctly only to have Crowell take one of his patented bad angles and miss a tackle. He does the same thing on pass drops. I'm not saying he doesn't have SOME ability. But he's terribly inconsistent in every facet. I agree he's a gamer but a great attitude only gets you so far. Here's to hoping you're right and another year in a healthier defense does the trick for his consistency.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[obie_wan]

I'd be interested in seeing what publications mentioned him and in what context. Number of tackles maybe? Our best starting LB should have high tackle totals when he's on the field as long as ours was last year.

 

Yes we had problems with our D-line and we had to adapt different responsibilities for our DLmen in light of all the injuries last year. Especially early on. But I would ask you to review Crowell's performance. It's easy to say it's the Dlines fault but on many occassions they did their job correctly only to have Crowell take one of his patented bad angles and miss a tackle. He does the same thing on pass drops. I'm not saying he doesn't have SOME ability. But he's terribly inconsistent in every facet. I agree he's a gamer but a great attitude only gets you so far. Here's to hoping you're right and another year in a healthier defense does the trick for his consistency.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

He's better than Coy Wire.

 

Not hard to pile up a lot of tackles when you're playing with the pizza boy.

[Búfalo Blanco]

Actually, in the "Amazon gift card" thread I predicted Rivers as our first pick.... I think I took a big chance, considering he very well may not be there... But if he is, I believe he is a good pick for Buffalo... Certainly not the only option, but he could help this team... As many in this thread already stated, Crowell is a UFA next offseason... In addition, Digiorgio and Ellison are RFAs... If you also consider other UFAs next offseason, which include Fowler, Preston, and of course, Evans, then the Bills have to consider some of these possible losses now...

 

If they re-sign Crowell and give Digiorgio and Ellison qualifying offers, that gives them less cap room to sign Evans, who will probably break the bank whether the Bills decide to be his Daddy Warbucks or not... They could still franchise him, but the qualifying offer (I'm guessing 8-10 mil for a year) is also quite a cap hit... I don't expect Buffalo to re-sign Fowler or Preston, which means in this draft, and possibly next offseason too, we will address C and G... Regardless, I question whether Buffalo will really be able to re-sign both Crowell and Evans next offseason while addressing any other free agent/draft needs they may have... Some of the people questioning the possibility of drafting Rivers are arguing that Crowell is an all-pro talent... I agree that he is a very good player in his prime, which means he will command a hefty contract next year... especially if he has an above average season... If that is the case, I really question whether the small market, "cash to the cap" Bills will be able to re-sign both Evans and Crowell while also giving decent qualifying options to Digiorgio, Ellison, and filling other needs in 2009...

 

Considering all of this info, do the Bills draft Evans replacement at 11, letting him go cash in next year? They would then have a 2nd year WR as their #1, along with Parrish and Reed... and maybe another young or rookie WR if they draft/sign another this year or next... However, if they are lucky enough to have Rivers fall and they draft him, then they can allow Crowell to walk away, use the money to spend as much as they need to franchise/re-sign a more experienced, very talented WR in Evans, and whatever cap room is left can be used to retain Digiorgio and/or Ellison (or get draft picks if other teams are interested) and fill other future needs...

 

Ultimately, I believe WR is a harder position to fill due to the amount of time it takes, generally speaking, to develop in the position... If this draft is truly as deep at WR as many are saying, I believe Buffalo should draft a guy like Rivers first (assuming he's there), draft a WR in the 2nd (and perhaps another later in the draft), and do whatever it takes (short of a ridiculous signing bonus) to re-sign Lee Evans... or franchise him, if need be...

 

I'm sure some on this board don't like to think as far as next offseason's goals, but I'm certain that the Bills have already considered all of these scenarios as well as others going 2-3 years into the future...

[KOKBILLS]

Dude, no one even heard of Devin Thomas when the draft evaluation process started once the 2007 season was in the books. Devin is only on top because of default from bad times, lagging injuries and character issues. Thomas' biggest plus is his speed yet when I see video on him he looks way more like a Josh Reed kind of receiver. He's certainly wasn't a deep threat. It looks like the bulk of his work came after the catch. That's fine and dandy for a second or third round WR, but NOT when you are looking for a game breaking first round WR! The more I look at him, the more I see first round bust that will struggle to even be a starting NFL receiver. He has slot receiver written all over him, which is BAD news if you picked the guy in the first freaking round.

 

I'll say it now...40 times be damned...Kelly, Hardy and Sweed will ALL be better pro receivers than Thomas.

 

Mark it down...Keith Rivers will be a pro bowler, he's has that kind of game changing talent. Devin Thomas will be a bust for whoever picks him, he just doesn't play up to his timed speed or have the game changing attributes you expect from a WR picked in the first round.

 

I like Rivers, I have nothing against Him as a Player...I'm not sure about the Pro Bowl part but we'll see...

 

I think Your evaluation of Thomas is WAY off...I have watched nearly every Down of Tape on that Kid I could get My hands on and there are only 2 possible negatives...One...He is a one year wonder of sorts, though there were extenuating circumstances behind that...Two...He did have a few too many drops in certain Games...Otherwise the Kid was a MAJOR spark for a Team with little Top line talent...At times He just jumps off the Film with His ability...His 20 yard time has to be one the quickest in this entire Draft because He blows by defenders with His initial burst. He will go up and get the Ball and when He catches with His Hands He usually comes down with it...He adds Kick Return skills...He's full of talent...Granted that may never show in the NFL because plenty of Kids with talent don't blossom...But there is really no question why He moved to the Top of this WR class...His Upside is clearly greater than the other WR Prospects...It's that simple...

[obie_wan]

I like Rivers, I have nothing against Him as a Player...I'm not sure about the Pro Bowl part but we'll see...

 

I think Your evaluation of Thomas is WAY off...I have watched nearly every Down of Tape on that Kid I could get My hands on and there are only 2 possible negatives...One...He is a one year wonder of sorts, though there were extenuating circumstances behind that...Two...He did have a few too many drops in certain Games...Otherwise the Kid was a MAJOR spark for a Team with little Top line talent...At times He just jumps off the Film with His ability...His 20 yard time has to be one the quickest in this entire Draft because He blows by defenders with His initial burst. He will go up and get the Ball and when He catches with His Hands He usually comes down with it...He adds Kick Return skills...He's full of talent...Granted that may never show in the NFL because plenty of Kids with talent don't blossom...But there is really no question why He moved to the Top of this WR class...His Upside is clearly greater than the other WR Prospects...It's that simple...

 

what is his background that he only played 1 year.

 

Why is no one asking the question why he went the JUCO route to MSU?

 

For a position that normally takes 3 yeats to adjust to the Pro game, will he be hindered by some learning disablility that forced him into the JUCO program?

 

Why was he a total non-factor in the year before his breakout?

 

In a year with a lot of WRs bunched arouond the same quality, Thomas is an unnecessary risk at #11.

 

He could be another WR with great raw skills which is all negated by his inability to quickly process information.

[colin]

what is his background that he only played 1 year.

 

Why is no one asking the question why he went the JUCO route to MSU?

 

For a position that normally takes 3 yeats to adjust to the Pro game, will he be hindered by some learning disablility that forced him into the JUCO program?

 

Why was he a total non-factor in the year before his breakout?

 

In a year with a lot of WRs bunched arouond the same quality, Thomas is an unnecessary risk at #11.

 

He could be another WR with great raw skills which is all negated by his inability to quickly process information.

 

 

OR he showed that he can step up to a higher level with his determination and work ethic by transfering from juco to MSU.

 

anyone can bust out, and anyone can get hurt, but thomas has MAD TALENT.

 

the reason i like him is how he runs the quick out, slant, and wr screen. he is very fast (nearly evans fast in the 40) and big (6'2" 215). when he gets the medium passes or screens he rips the ball down and punishes the first guy with a strong move or stiff arm. then he breaks out. he just really reminds me of moulds (who would have had 100+ tds if we was around the same time as kelly for his whole career).

[obie_wan]

OR he showed that he can step up to a higher level with his determination and work ethic by transfering from juco to MSU.

 

anyone can bust out, and anyone can get hurt, but thomas has MAD TALENT.

 

the reason i like him is how he runs the quick out, slant, and wr screen. he is very fast (nearly evans fast in the 40) and big (6'2" 215). when he gets the medium passes or screens he rips the ball down and punishes the first guy with a strong move or stiff arm. then he breaks out. he just really reminds me of moulds (who would have had 100+ tds if we was around the same time as kelly for his whole career).

 

and like Moulds, it will probably take him 3 years to figure out the pro game- if does at all.

 

There are only so many fly patterns you can have a WR run before he actually has to learn the offense.

 

A

[Huuuge Bills]

and like Moulds, it will probably take him 3 years to figure out the pro game- if does at all.

 

There are only so many fly patterns you can have a WR run before he actually has to learn the offense.

 

A

 

So, because some WR's take time to develope.... you want to wait even longer to draft one?

 

pssssst, if we wait another year to get a WR, and they take 3 years before they are able to catch a single pass, it will be 2012 before we have a legit WR opposite of Lee.

[Ozymandius]

Taking a linebacker at 11 would be stupid. It's a position that's not that hard to fill and the Bills already have 3 pretty good LBs starting already. If you want additional LB depth, use later round picks. The Bills have a second year QB they need to develop and they still don't have a dominating o-line or d-line. This means the draft should be used for receiving targets and line help. Don't make it more complicated than it needs to be.

[obie_wan]

So, because some WR's take time to develope.... you want to wait even longer to draft one?

 

pssssst, if we wait another year to get a WR, and they take 3 years before they are able to catch a single pass, it will be 2012 before we have a legit WR opposite of Lee.

 

that's why you don;t take one with only 1 year of college production who had to go the JUCO route to college.

 

Not being able to qualify academically at MSU in this era of preferntial treatment for athletes says alot about his ability to process info

[Captain Hindsight]

If Rivers is available at 11, we take him. He will be the highest graded player when our spot comes up. Many so-called experts feel that Rivers will be a good pash-rusher and super play-maker in the NFL. The linebacker position looks good today--maybe not next year. The Bills lack linebacker depth and the chances of one of them getting hurt is 50/50. I'll take a dynamic player in my rotation anytime. We can draft a solid wide receiver in the second (maybe Kelly slips) and even move up by trading our fourth if necessary. Then get your TE or CB (whoever grades out higher) in the third and desperately needed center with the compensation pick in the fourth.

 

ALTHOUGH I have no problem going back to 19 and getting Lito Shepherd, but I would think we have to give up something else too.

Is that based on his ZERO sacks and INTs last season? Whoa nelly i knew these experts didnt watch film