Pro Football Weekly- Risers and Fallers

[In space no one can hear]

Link

 

 

 

Prospects who are rising

 

 

 

Georgia Tech RB Tashard Choice

Unlike most NFL draft prospects, Choice has survived the elimination process for most teams with no considerable flaw and could wind up being drafted sooner than later because teams are giddy about his competitiveness and overall intangibles.

 

Kansas OT Anthony Collins

The mushroom club known as the OL coaches see a coachable prospect with upside that pure evaluators have more difficulty seeing. As a result, he is being discussed as a potential selection in the second round. Could struggle to earn respect from veterans and fit into a locker room.

 

East Carolina RB Chris Johnson

Continues to inch up draft boards because of his blazing speed, regardless of how much he may struggle when asked to carry a full workload.

 

Arkansas S Tyrell Johnson

Stepping up vs. big-time competition put him on the map. Outstanding Combine performance pushed him to the top of the safety boards in the eyes of some evaluators.

 

Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo

Has size, speed, toughness and versatility and is warranting top-15 consideration.

 

 

 

Prospects who are slipping

 

Arkansas DT Marcus Harrison

Has had issues with drugs and authority and has been knocked off many draft boards. Could still be drafted as high as the second round, as Tank Johnson was, because of the lack of depth at the DT position but has rarely played like the first-rounder he showed flashes of becoming during his career. Could struggle to earn a second contract from the team that drafts him after he receives a big payday.

 

Maryland OLB Erin Henderson

Questions about his knees and overall tightness could send him spiraling down draft boards the same way Brandon Siler did a year ago.

 

Purdue TE Dustin Keller

Questions about his maturity, his tendency to get into fights and his football intelligence could push him down a round or two from where his athletic ability and tape suggest he should be drafted.

 

Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly

Has been removed from many teams' draft boards because of his two bad knees, one of which has been reconstructed and the other in which he has arthritis. Questionable work ethic, attitude and intelligence will not make it easy to invest heavily in him. Teams that buy the hype and think he is a great value in the second round could be disappointed. Has big-time bust potential at a position where there is a great tendency to bust.

Georgia Tech LB Phillip Wheeler

Physically, he could warrant looks in the second round, but his football playing demeanor, passion for the game and questionable football intelligence have dropped him to the fifth round in the eyes of some teams.

[ans4e64]

I honestly think Mayo will be picked in the top 20, with how fast he is rising.

 

And that's good news on Keller, maybe we can get a steal in the 3rd round.

[berndogg]

I honestly think Mayo will be picked in the top 20, with how fast he is rising.

 

And that's good news on Keller, maybe we can get a steal in the 3rd round.

 

It's weird, but I always feel better picking a "faller" than a "riser". College game film is the best indicator of NFL sucess, and thats all available months before the combine. Picking guys or passing on guys because of how they did at the combine and pro days is always very risky in my opinion. Unless a guy is falling because of some serious injury problems that are revealed in physicals, I don't see a reason why a guy should rise or fall in march and april. And even the fallers with injuries can be steals sometimes (see: Thomas, Thurman).

[Pete]

It's weird, but I always feel better picking a "faller" than a "riser". College game film is the best indicator of NFL sucess, and thats all available months before the combine. Picking guys or passing on guys because of how they did at the combine and pro days is always very risky in my opinion. Unless a guy is falling because of some serious injury problems that are revealed in physicals, I don't see a reason why a guy should rise or fall in march and april. And even the fallers with injuries can be steals sometimes (see: Thomas, Thurman).

I agree somewhat. Getting a player who fell based on overanalysis or poor combine or an injury- but produced on the field makes for good value. Malcolm Kelly is gonna be a bargain wherever he falls to. I have a feeling we might wait until the second round to get our WR- and the front office might be eyeing Kelly. Late risers includes workout warriors and is based on potential rather then past performance. I would rather the player who played great in their college career

[BeastMode54]

All this new Kelly talk is just ridiculous. These same people who thought he was a can't miss, best WR on the board, now say he has bust written all over him. He did well in all his receiving drills. If he ran 2 tenths of a second faster all these draft gurus would be singing a different tune. Unbelievable. I;m not saying we should or shouldn't take him, but to say he has no value in the second round and is totally removed from teams draft boards is a bunch of bull.

[eball]

All this new Kelly talk is just ridiculous. These same people who thought he was a can't miss, best WR on the board, now say he has bust written all over him. He did well in all his receiving drills. If he ran 2 tenths of a second faster all these draft gurus would be singing a different tune. Unbelievable. I;m not saying we should or shouldn't take him, but to say he has no value in the second round and is totally removed from teams draft boards is a bunch of bull.

What bothers me about Kelly is not his workout -- I'd much rather place emphasis on how he plays the game -- but his immaturity and reaction to the workout.

 

Why not just come out and say "my track speed isn't great, but anyone who has watched me knows I have game speed" and be done with it?

 

I suppose the guy could eventually grow up, but in this year's draft the Bills can't afford to wait for that to happen.

[In space no one can hear]

What bothers me about Kelly is not his workout -- I'd much rather place emphasis on how he plays the game -- but his immaturity and reaction to the workout.

 

Why not just come out and say "my track speed isn't great, but anyone who has watched me knows I have game speed" and be done with it?

 

I suppose the guy could eventually grow up, but in this year's draft the Bills can't afford to wait for that to happen.

 

 

Not to mention that at the combine, the most important " job interview" of his life,

 

he showed up overweight and out of shape.

[Ozymandius]

All this new Kelly talk is just ridiculous. These same people who thought he was a can't miss, best WR on the board, now say he has bust written all over him. He did well in all his receiving drills. If he ran 2 tenths of a second faster all these draft gurus would be singing a different tune. Unbelievable. I;m not saying we should or shouldn't take him, but to say he has no value in the second round and is totally removed from teams draft boards is a bunch of bull.

 

Right, and if I ran just ONE second faster in MY 40 time, all the draft gurus would be slobbering over ME because I currently run a 5.2. Look, .2 seconds is an eternity in the NFL, and a 4.65 means you are slow. It's a meaningless difference if you're an accountant, a significant difference if you're a wide receiver.

[Beerball]

Prospects who are rising

Kansas OT Anthony Collins

The mushroom club known as the OL coaches see a coachable prospect with upside that pure evaluators have more difficulty seeing. As a result, he is being discussed as a potential selection in the second round. Could struggle to earn respect from veterans and fit into a locker room.

bad teeth?

[Steely Dan]

It's weird, but I always feel better picking a "faller" than a "riser". College game film is the best indicator of NFL sucess, and thats all available months before the combine. Picking guys or passing on guys because of how they did at the combine and pro days is always very risky in my opinion. Unless a guy is falling because of some serious injury problems that are revealed in physicals, I don't see a reason why a guy should rise or fall in march and april. And even the fallers with injuries can be steals sometimes (see: Thomas, Thurman).

 

Riser: Erik Flowers. If a team doesn't have it's draft board 99% done by now they are idiots. The only reason they should change things if is they find out about a recent injury, an undisclosed serious crime, or that he has become out of shape since the combine. I see no reason for putting a player higher just lower.

 

As berndogg pointed out college film is the best way to judge talent. 95% of judging a player should be based on college film. If he runs a little faster or slower it should at most drop him one position on the teams board IMO. There can be other reasons but those are strictly to put a guy down on the list. (i.e. Malcolm Kelly's tantrum after his pro-day.)

 

 

What bothers me about Kelly is not his workout -- I'd much rather place emphasis on how he plays the game -- but his immaturity and reaction to the workout.

 

Why not just come out and say "my track speed isn't great, but anyone who has watched me knows I have game speed" and be done with it?

 

I suppose the guy could eventually grow up, but in this year's draft the Bills can't afford to wait for that to happen.

 

That tantrum of getting into the coaches faces and his agents and having to be escorted out due to his meltdown

would be enough for me to throw the magnetic board with his name on it in the trash.

[BeastMode54]

That would be a red flag to me. I didn't know that he was getting in anyone's face or having to be escorted out.

[Steely Dan]

That would be a red flag to me. I didn't know that he was getting in anyone's face or having to be escorted out.

 

I can't remember where I heard that. I just went looking for an article that would support that exactly but I couldn't find one. It may just be faulty memory or the reporting from one guy.

 

I did find this though:

Kelly complained after the workout last week that he had expected to run on the AstroTurf inside Oklahoma's indoor track facility, but was forced instead to run on a softer surface, resulting in the slower time. He has since apologized and thanked OU for setting up the latest workout.

 

Kelly said the workout went well.

 

"Like I said, last week I made a lot of immature decisions going off like that," who complained that the slow time would cost him money, a red flag for NFL teams.

 

He said he spoke with OU coach Bob Stoops for more than an hour and there are no hard feelings.

 

"He told me I never game him any trouble. He just said there's no bad blood between us."

 

Speck dismissed speculation that Kelly's outburst about the first workout would cause his draft stock to fall.

 

 

Speck is his agent.

[eball]

Speck dismissed speculation that Kelly's outburst about the first workout would cause his draft stock to fall.

 

Speck is his agent.

That's a neat trick by Speck -- speaking with his balls in his throat.

[Mickey]

I can't remember where I heard that. I just went looking for an article that would support that exactly but I couldn't find one. It may just be faulty memory or the reporting from one guy.

 

I did find this though:

Kelly complained after the workout last week that he had expected to run on the AstroTurf inside Oklahoma's indoor track facility, but was forced instead to run on a softer surface, resulting in the slower time. He has since apologized and thanked OU for setting up the latest workout.

 

Kelly said the workout went well.

 

"Like I said, last week I made a lot of immature decisions going off like that," who complained that the slow time would cost him money, a red flag for NFL teams.

 

He said he spoke with OU coach Bob Stoops for more than an hour and there are no hard feelings.

 

"He told me I never game him any trouble. He just said there's no bad blood between us."

 

Speck dismissed speculation that Kelly's outburst about the first workout would cause his draft stock to fall.

 

 

Speck is his agent.

If I thought the guy could play based on what my scouts have said, what I had seen on his film, etc, I would have no problem taking him despite his so called "outburst". He is a college kid under a lot of pressure with limited experience with the press. He said a few things that a seasoned pro well versed in giving cliche responses to the press might not have said. It means less than nothing. The rush to label this kid as having character issues based on one interview is ridiculous. I am worried about his knees, I am worried about his 40 time. As for his ability to handle the press, I figure we can teach him to shut up a lot easier than we can teach Josh Reed to be taller.

[Steely Dan]

If I thought the guy could play based on what my scouts have said, what I had seen on his film, etc, I would have no problem taking him despite his so called "outburst". He is a college kid under a lot of pressure with limited experience with the press. He said a few things that a seasoned pro well versed in giving cliche responses to the press might not have said. It means less than nothing. The rush to label this kid as having character issues based on one interview is ridiculous. I am worried about his knees, I am worried about his 40 time. As for his ability to handle the press, I figure we can teach him to shut up a lot easier than we can teach Josh Reed to be taller.

 

What will undoubtedly be a deal breaker for many N.F.L. teams is that Kelly reportedly yelled at Oklahoma strength and conditioning coach Jerry Schmidt after his workout, and then told Jake Trotter of The Oklahoman and other members of the media that his slow times were not his fault, but the fault of the coaching and medical staffs at Oklahoma:

 

“Certain people have tried to hold me down, and they know who they are,” Kelly said. “I wouldn’t say the whole OU coaching staff, but certain people, I would say that.”

 

After hearing those comments, and others in which Kelly suggested that his thigh injury worsened because Oklahoma’s trainers misdiagnosed it, Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops felt the need to stick up for his program, insisting that Kelly was treated properly.

 

In N.F.L. circles, Stoops is one of the most respected college coaches, and if Kelly thinks a verbal back-and-forth with Stoops two weeks before the draft is the way to endear himself to N.F.L. teams, he’s in for an unpleasant surprise on draft day. Kelly likely dropped out of the first round on Wednesday, and not because of his 40 time.

 

Linkage

 

I see T.O. style sideline blowups with this kid. Don't need that. Let someone else deal with that !

[Fewell733]

More on Kelly from Chris Brown - seems the Bills staff wasn't too shaken by the outburst

 

 

http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?post_id=3308

 

BILLS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT WR KELLY OUTBURST: Much has been made of Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly's criticism of his own school after he ran some disappointing times at his pro day earlier this month, even here in this space. He criticized Oklahoma for switching the venue of his pro day from an astroturf surface to field turf. It wasn't a good way to handle adversity, though one could understand with his NFL future on the line why he was upset after the workout. Bills scouts Joe Haering and Shawn Heinlen tried to set the record straight on Kelly.

 

“No one thought he was an elite speed athlete, but the combination of his size to go with the speed he has is good enough for him to be a very productive receiver," said Heinlen who was in attendance at Kelly's pro day. "There is a laundry list of guys that have played receiver in the NFL that have not been 4.4 guys and been very productive. Granted, he was probably just very frustrated at the workout. He was a young guy that came out early and he’s not been put in that kind of situation before."

 

“He probably thought he was that fast and the time didn’t come out and he got a little upset and vented," said Heinlen. "His interview was literally right after he finished working out. He didn’t have time to talk to anyone. He just got a little upset I think. I don’t think it’s an issue talking to the coaches. They all love the kid and speak very highly of him from a work ethic standpoint and his character. There’s no issue there. He was just upset he didn’t run as well as he hoped to run.”

 

Scout Joe Haering who evaluated Kelly on tape believes Kelly he's fast enough along with his size to be a "good player in our league." Haering also cleared up the misperception that timed speed is end all be all factor.

 

"The most important thing is how the guy plays which is called playing speed because the guy has pads on," said Haering. "Then there are the guys that run fast when they’re on the track with shorts. Sometimes the guy runs real fast in shorts and not with his pads on. I thought he ran fast enough. When you’re playing the game especially at receiver and he comes across the middle and gets punched in the mouth and his nose is bleeding maybe some guy running 4.4 is running a 4.8 the next time. My point is when I saw him he is fast enough to play. He has good playing speed."

 

So although the draft gurus interpreted Kelly's disappointing pro day as a significant blow to his draft stock, in all likelihood most NFL teams haven't dropped his grade all that much. I had less of an issue with his timed speed than I did how he handled adversity. Knowing that interview came right as his workout concluded eases my concern about it a bit. Where does that put him in the draft? I'm guessing but probably the lower third of round one.

[lets_go_bills]

Kelly could go either way I think; bust or boom. At age 21, two bad knees is a major concern, especially in a sport where your knees are your most important body part.

 

Mind you, Frank Gore had TWO re-built knees, and well...

[billybob]

I don't know how much Kelly should be downgraded but why should he go a lot higher than Bowman who is now rated as a 6-7 rounder or Marcus Monk now rated as 5-6 rounder.

[Mikie2times]

What bothers me about Kelly is not his workout -- I'd much rather place emphasis on how he plays the game -- but his immaturity and reaction to the workout.

 

Why not just come out and say "my track speed isn't great, but anyone who has watched me knows I have game speed" and be done with it?

 

I suppose the guy could eventually grow up, but in this year's draft the Bills can't afford to wait for that to happen.

Ever say things out of anger or frustration that are in the heat of the moment? If people summarized your maturity and character by these isolated situation would that be indicative of who you are? The guy was questioned before the dust even settled. He didn't even walk off the field before he was inundated by reporters . This was very important to him, for a million reasons. Nobody from Oklahoma ever had a problem with him. They all vouch for his character, I think most teams are putting the situation in proper context.

 

Not to mention that at the combine, the most important " job interview" of his life,

 

he showed up overweight and out of shape.

Overweight and out of shape in the midst of an injury, which is why he couldn't perform. How in shape can you expect him to be when you can't perform any physical activity and his body is used to extremely high levels of physical activity?

 

Right, and if I ran just ONE second faster in MY 40 time, all the draft gurus would be slobbering over ME because I currently run a 5.2. Look, .2 seconds is an eternity in the NFL, and a 4.65 means you are slow. It's a meaningless difference if you're an accountant, a significant difference if you're a wide receiver.

He's not supposed to be a speed racer. He's a possession/red zone/over the middle player, who on film, has very good playing speed (not according to just me, but several scouts, including our own). If you judge even WR's by just 40 times, you'll miss a thousand times over. For who he is, and what he brings, his low 40 only devalues him a round, maybe two.

[Paup 1995MVP]

So what if the kid had an outburst. We need a lot more attitude on our team anyways. All I know is that Malcolm Kelly is a football player. Anquan Boldin I believe ran close to a 4.7 forty when he was coming out four or five years ago. He fell to the second round. The man is a stud. Football speed is much more important than track speed. I have a strong feeling that the Bills are still very interested in Malcolm Kelly, obviously not at #11, but later in the first round or early in the second. If the Bills medical staff feels that his knees will hold up over the long run, than I am all for drafting him.