Numbers moving in favor of Kerry

[Mickey]

If you are not interested in discussing poll numbers or want to point out how they are not much better than guesses, don't bother responding as we all know that. Taking polls for what they are worth however, some interesting scenarios are emerging.

 

I think the state by state numbers show things are moving in favor of Kerry however, he was definitely trailing so that movement doesn't really mean he is ahead at this point. I have been following this over the last few weeks so I have had the chance to watch the numbers in each state move this way and that.

 

A lot of states look close when really, they aren't. Take Arizona for example. Bush leads in the latest poll there 49%-44% with 7% undecided. That seems close but actually, Kerry would have to pick up 70% of those undecided voters to pass Bush or else he would have to get some Bush voters to change his mind. For that reason, I think that for now anyway, based only on the most recent poll there, Bush is going to take Arizona. Using that same reasoning for a lot of "close" states really cuts down on the number of states that are seriously in play and will likely decide the race. Apart from those states, the electoral vote total is Kerry 234 and Bush 226.

 

The states that are in play right now anyway, are Florida (27), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (20), Iowa (7), Arkansas (6),New Hampshire (4) and Maine (4). The most recent polls in Florida show Bush ahead by 4% in one and Kerry ahead by 2% in another overlapping poll with around 6% undecided. You just can't make a call on Florida yet though, for now, I would give Bush a slight edge in Florida.

 

Wisconsin had been giving Bush a small but consistent lead but that has suddenly reversed. Kerry now leads by 4% with 8% undecided. I give Kerry the edge as the numbers are moving his way there clearly and the state has gone for the democratic candidate in the last 4 elections.

 

Ohio had been polling in favor of the president with, like Wisconsin, a small but consistent lead. The last two polls there however have Kerry moving ahead. The older poll had him only ahead by 1% but the most recent poll shows him having built on to that lead so that he is now ahead by 4% with only 5% undecided. Bush would have to get pretty much all of the undecideds to catch Kerry in Ohio. Still too close to call but definitely bad new for the President.

 

New Hampshire is dead even at 47% each. Maine is also a toss up as the latest numbers are 42-39 for Kerry with a whopping 15% undecided. Nader does better here than almost anywhere else polling ar 4%. It should be noted though that this poll is one of the older ones and I think dates back to before the debates.

 

The most interesting states involved here are Arkansas and Iowa because until a short time ago, Bush had great numbers in both. An Arkansas poll between 10/2 and 10/4 had Bush up a whopping 52% to 43% with only 5% undecided. Kerry was out of it basically. Even if he got 100% of the undecideds, he'd still lose 52-48. The latest poll however has it Bush 46%, Kerry 45% and 6% undecided. That is a huge switch and I think it reflects how well Kerry did in the debates. Arkansas is out of the Bush column and back in play.

 

A 3% Bush lead in Iowa has evaporated and it is now dead even at 47% each.

 

If you give Bush the benefit of the doubt in Florida and Arkansas and have Kerry hang on to his growing leads in Wisconsin and Ohio, the whole shebang goes to Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa. That would put Kerry at 264 and Bush at 259. Bush would not be able to win without Iowa, even if he won the other two. Kerry could not win with just one of the smaller states if he in fact lost Iowa.

 

This all adds up to a very, very close election. For Kerry supporters, you have to take heart at the reversals in favor of him in Arkansas, Iowa and Wisconsin and you have to like the situation in Ohio. For Bush supporters, you have to like how competetive he is in Maine and New Hampshire and now that the debates are over, Kerry may have peaked already.

[Jock Sniffer]

I have been reading here for a while now, posting comment here and there. I have to say that Mickey is one the best posters here. Always informative, always factual. Doesn't mud sling or call folks names. Just states the facts. I like it. Good post.

[DC Tom]

I have to say that Mickey is one the best posters here. Always informative, always factual. Doesn't mud sling or call folks names. Just states the facts. I like it.

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Kind of makes you wonder if he's on the wrong board, doesn't it?

[Mickey]

Kind of makes you wonder if he's on the wrong board, doesn't it? 

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This is the Christians for Satan board isn't it?

[DC Tom]

This is the Christians for Satan board isn't it?

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Nope. That's down the hall, second door on the right. Right next to the Lyndon Larouche-David Duke '08 campaign headquarters.

 

Don't forget to take your human sacrifice with you...I nominate Boomer...

[stuckincincy]

If you are not interested in discussing poll numbers or want to point out how they are not much better than guesses, don't bother responding as we all know that.  Taking polls for what they are worth however, some interesting scenarios are emerging.

 

I think the state by state numbers show things are moving in favor of Kerry however, he was definitely trailing so that movement doesn't really mean he is ahead at this point.  I have been following this over the last few weeks so I have had the chance to watch the numbers in each state move this way and that.

 

A lot of states look close when really, they aren't.  Take Arizona for example.  Bush leads in the latest poll there 49%-44% with 7% undecided.  That seems close but actually, Kerry would have to pick up 70% of those undecided voters to pass Bush or else he would have to get some Bush voters to change his mind.  For that reason, I think that for now anyway, based only on the most recent poll there, Bush is going to take Arizona.  Using that same reasoning for a lot of "close" states really cuts down on the number of states that are seriously in play and will likely decide the race.  Apart from those states, the electoral vote total is Kerry 234 and Bush 226.

 

The states that are in play right now anyway, are Florida (27), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (20), Iowa (7), Arkansas (6),New Hampshire (4) and Maine (4).  The most recent polls in Florida show Bush ahead by 4% in one and Kerry ahead by 2% in another overlapping poll with around 6% undecided.  You just can't make a call on Florida yet though, for now, I would give Bush a slight edge in Florida.

 

Wisconsin had been giving Bush a small but consistent lead but that has suddenly reversed.  Kerry now leads by 4% with 8% undecided.  I give Kerry the edge as the numbers are moving his way there clearly and the state has gone for the democratic candidate in the last 4 elections.

 

Ohio had been polling in favor of the president with, like Wisconsin, a small but consistent lead.  The last two polls there however have Kerry moving ahead.  The older poll had him only ahead by 1% but the most recent poll shows him having built on to that lead so that he is now ahead by 4% with only 5% undecided.  Bush would have to get pretty much all of the undecideds to catch Kerry in Ohio.  Still too close to call but definitely bad new for the President.

 

New Hampshire is dead even at 47% each.  Maine is also a toss up as the latest numbers are 42-39 for Kerry with a whopping 15% undecided.  Nader does better here than almost anywhere else polling ar 4%.  It should be noted though that this poll is one of the older ones and I think dates back to before the debates.

 

The most interesting states involved here are Arkansas and Iowa because until a short time ago, Bush had great numbers in both.  An Arkansas poll between 10/2 and 10/4 had Bush up a whopping 52% to 43% with only 5% undecided.  Kerry was out of it basically.  Even if he got 100% of the undecideds, he'd still lose 52-48.  The latest poll however has it Bush 46%, Kerry 45% and 6% undecided.  That is a huge switch and I think it reflects how well Kerry did in the debates.  Arkansas is out of the Bush column and back in play.

 

A 3% Bush lead in Iowa has evaporated and it is now dead even at 47% each.

 

If you give Bush the benefit of the doubt in Florida and Arkansas and have Kerry hang on to his growing leads in Wisconsin and Ohio, the whole shebang goes to Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa.  That would put Kerry at 264 and Bush at 259.  Bush would not be able to win without Iowa, even if he won the other two.  Kerry could not win with just one of the smaller states if he in fact lost Iowa.

 

This all adds up to a very, very close election.  For Kerry supporters, you have to take heart at the reversals in favor of him in Arkansas, Iowa and Wisconsin and you have to like the situation in Ohio.  For Bush supporters, you have to like how competetive he is in Maine and New Hampshire and now that the debates are over, Kerry may have peaked already.

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Don't worry. Between the media and state-wide suits to gum up the election (see Ohio as an example), Kerry will win. The vote matters not. Be happy.

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

Bush has 178 EV wrapped up, Kerry has 153.

 

Throw in the EV that is leaning (more strongly than tossups) towards either candidate.....Bush has 249, Kerry has 203.

 

Then you have the tossups......Bush leaning ones are Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio. Kerry leaning ones are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. New Mexico is a virtual dead heat.

 

Bush's objective is to win Florida and Ohio. Both have polled favorably for the Prez. And he certainly could still grab Pennsylvania. Kerry has about a 2 point lead in PA.

 

There could be a 269-269 tie.....Bush wins Florida and Ohio.....Kerry has to win Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. I don't think Kerry is going to win all of those 8 states.

 

The left-leaning Zogby tracking poll has Bush up by 4 points today.

 

Kerry is in the thick of things, but he has a lot of work to do to win the election.

[Mickey]

Don't worry. Between the media and state-wide suits to gum up the election (see Ohio as an example), Kerry will win.  The vote matters not. Be happy.

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c'mon, don't sell the republicans short. Have you missed what apparently happened in Nevada and Oregon regarding the destruction of democratic voter registration apps? Somebody is going to jail, either the ones who destroyed or "lost" the registrations or the accusers who have signed affidavits that this was done. Perjury or fraud, either way, someone is going to the hoosegow.

[Mickey]

Bush has 178 EV wrapped up, Kerry has 153.

 

Throw in the EV that is leaning (more strongly than tossups) towards either candidate.....Bush has 249, Kerry has 203.

 

Then you have the tossups......Bush leaning ones are Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio.  Kerry leaning ones are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  New Mexico is a virtual dead heat.

 

Bush's objective is to win Florida and Ohio.  Both have polled favorably for the Prez.  And he certainly could still grab Pennsylvania.  Kerry has about a 2 point lead in PA. 

 

There could be a 269-269 tie.....Bush wins Florida and Ohio.....Kerry has to win Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.  I don't think Kerry is going to win all of those 8 states.

 

The left-leaning Zogby tracking poll has Bush up by 4 points today. 

 

Kerry is in the thick of things, but he has a lot of work to do to win the election.

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Check the interactive map at the LA Times, you have to register but it is for free and it has all the latest state by state polls updated daily. Some of what you say would have been correct two weeks ago but not now. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Arkansas have moved significantly. Minnesota and Pa are not that close. By the same token, despite closing the gap, I think Fla. is a Bush state for now and I don't think Kerry is going to get an upset in Arizona or Nevada, maybe New Mexico but probably not. Maine, NH and Iowa are toss ups. and based on the latest and greatest, that is where it will be decided but that will all change with tommorow's numbers, right?

 

The national poll that has been the most favorable to Bush is the Gallup poll which at one point had him up 13 points. That changed fast after the debates and by 10/10 they had Kerry up by 1. Not much but huge considering where he was.

The real problem with Kerry though is that he may have hit his zenith and though arguably ahead, he has almost no room to slip without losing. Bush doesn't have to hit a home run to win, a double will do. Kerry needs at least a triple.

[SilverNRed]

-150 means you have to bet $150 on Bush to win $100 if he wins.

 

+120 means you win $120 when you bet $100 on Kerry to win.

 

So the oddsmakers, at least on that site, are still going with Bush.

 

As usual, everyone is only pointing at the polls they like.

[webtoe]

Another good site is Slate.com. It has a summary of each recent poll by State along with a number of other interesting polling data.

 

Right now there summary shows Bush 270 Kerry 268

 

Interestingly though it shows only 46% think Bush should be re-elected, and 53% think that the Country is on the wrong track.

 

It is definitely going to be a long night/early morning on Nov 9-10.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Check the interactive map at the LA Times, you have to register but it is for free and it has all the latest state by state polls updated daily.  Some of what you say would have been correct two weeks ago but not now.  Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Arkansas have moved significantly.  Minnesota and Pa are not that close.  By the same token, despite closing the gap, I think Fla. is a Bush state for now and I don't think Kerry is going to get an upset in Arizona or Nevada, maybe New Mexico but probably not.  Maine, NH and Iowa are toss ups. and based on the latest and greatest, that is where it will be decided but that will all change with tommorow's numbers, right?

 

The national poll that has been the most favorable to Bush is the Gallup poll which at one point had him up 13 points.  That changed fast after the debates and by 10/10 they had Kerry up by 1.  Not much but huge considering where he was.

The real problem with Kerry though is that he may have hit his zenith and though arguably ahead, he has almost no room to slip without losing.  Bush doesn't have to hit a home run to win, a double will do.  Kerry needs at least a triple.

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You'd best check on PA again as well as NJ.

 

PA is a statistical dead heat and there's a VERY good chance it'll go for Bush.

 

The entire state outside of Philly and Pittsburgh is Bush country. He came close in 2000 and may take it in 2004.

[RCow]

You'd best check on PA again as well as NJ.

 

PA is a statistical dead heat and there's a VERY good chance it'll go for Bush.

 

The entire state outside of Philly and Pittsburgh is Bush country. He came close in 2000 and may take it in 2004.

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Bush is pulling out of PA and NJ -- it's not in play. (No, I don't have a link).

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

PA is certainly in play......New Jersey, prolly not.

[Mickey]

You'd best check on PA again as well as NJ.

 

PA is a statistical dead heat and there's a VERY good chance it'll go for Bush.

 

The entire state outside of Philly and Pittsburgh is Bush country. He came close in 2000 and may take it in 2004.

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I agree on NJ, a new poll came out that has a dead heat but an overlapping poll has Kerry ahead by 5%. Kerry has a small but consistently polled lead in Pa and Bush would have to nab more than 1/2 of the few undecideds left (4%), to take a lead. On top of that, Pa has gone for the democratic candidate 3 of the last 4 and NJ has as well. The only recent time either has gone for the repulican is Bush-Dukkakis.

 

Clearly, neither state is a lock for Kerry but as close as they are, they are not as close as NH, Maine and Iowa. I could make a similar argument about Arkansas, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico maybe going for Kerry and then there is the strange situation in Colorado where that ballot initiative might split the award of EV's from there. Still, I am giving all of those to Bush for now. Statistically, all of those are swing states as well as Pa and NJ.

 

What is startling about these numbers is that almost every swing state that has moved over the debate period has moved Kerry's way. Mainly Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa which had been polling pretty strongly for Bush. What remains to be seen is whether the movement generated by the debates has any depth or staying power.

 

Bush is a war president and voters simply don't usually change leadership during a war. I am pretty amazed that Kerry is keeping it this close.

[Paco]

Bush is a war president and voters simply don't usually change leadership during a war. I am pretty amazed that Kerry is keeping it this close.

 

Please don't take this as talking-point tripe when I say that there is little wonder Kerry is able to keep it close. He does what he's supposed to do when you don't have a prayer: tell people that their lives suck...regardless of whether their lives suck or not...then tell them Bush is the reason for their lives sucking, then tell them you can make it all better.

 

Create a problem. Create a fear of the problem. Point to someone as the cause of the problem. Present yourself as the person who can fix the problem that may or may not even exist ("Hope is on the way"). When you do it that way, it doesn't matter that you are running around saying "I have a plan that can't be explained to you."

 

It's marketing, plain and simple, and the only reason Kerry is as close as he appears is because he absolutely, positively says things that people just accept as gospel because most people are too lazy to double-check anything. People don't pay attention to, as an example, the dire difference between "unilateral" and "bilateral" talks with North Korea, probably one of THE biggest issues we're going to face in ther near term. They don't pay attention to the fact that his people say Republicans hate blacks when two of the president's key advisors are black. They don't pay attention to the fact that Kerry's 20-year Senate record is basically an abyss.

 

They just hear what they hear and accept it because they are suddenly too afraid and too lazy to challenge any of it.

 

Imagine what would happen if the Dems put a real candidate with substance on the ticket.

[Brandon]

Bush is pulling out of PA and NJ -- it's not in play.  (No, I don't have a link).

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This rumor has been making the rounds and it doesn't appear to be true. In fact, Bush has a scheduled campaign stop in NJ Monday. You'll find proof of that in the right hand column on the following site, in the section dealing with the poll.

 

http://www.politicsnj.com/

 

I don't immediately have anything regarding Bush's visits/ads in Pennsylvania, but given that I think everyone would consider him much more likely to win there than in New Jersey, he's probably not pulling out there, either.

 

BTW, here's a much better article detailing his Monday NJ visit:

 

http://www.nj.com/news/bridgeton/local/ind...18473155771.xml

[Mickey]

Please don't take this as talking-point tripe when I say that there is little wonder Kerry is able to keep it close. He does what he's supposed to do when you don't have a prayer: tell people that their lives suck...regardless of whether their lives suck or not...then tell them Bush is the reason for their lives sucking, then tell them you can make it all better.

 

Create a problem. Create a fear of the problem. Point to someone as the cause of the problem. Present yourself as the person who can fix the problem that may or may not even exist ("Hope is on the way"). When you do it that way, it doesn't matter that you are running around saying "I have a plan that can't be explained to you."

 

It's marketing, plain and simple, and the only reason Kerry is as close as he appears is because he absolutely, positively says things that people just accept as gospel because most people are too lazy to double-check anything. People don't pay attention to, as an example, the dire difference between "unilateral" and "bilateral" talks with North Korea, probably one of THE biggest issues we're going to face in ther near term. They don't pay attention to the fact that his people say Republicans hate blacks when two of the president's key advisors are black. They don't pay attention to the fact that Kerry's 20-year Senate record is basically an abyss.

 

They just hear what they hear and accept it because they are suddenly too afraid and too lazy to challenge any of it.

 

Imagine what would happen if the Dems put a real candidate with substance on the ticket.

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...and I suppose you don't think that Bush is doing the exact same thing? "America is safer" Is that not what we want to hear regardless of whether or not it is true? "Invading Iraq was a decision forced on America." Is that not what we want to hear?

 

As for African Americans, I suppose you are smarter than they are and can see through Kerry while they just aren't sharp enough and so are taken in by his rhetoric? Of course, the alternative would be that the simple fact that he has a few African Americans around is proof enough for you that his policies are what is best for that voting block while African Americans themselves are not so easily fooled. By the way, please give me a link to where Kerry claims "republicans hate blacks" as opposed to having argued that the President's policies have not been of benefit to that block.

 

If you were African American and stumbled on this board and constantly read posts from the right that said Kerry voters were immoral, stupid, kool-aid drinkers, degenerates, junkies, whores and felons and then you looked at the numbers showing that 85% of African Americans are voting for Kerry, would you take offense? If you then kept reading how Kerry was fooling them and Bush was really a much better choice for minorities if only they were not so easily deceived by those evil democrats, would you wonder if maybe a lot of people on the right think African Americans are not very bright? Just curious.

 

Of course, Bush did come out strongly opposed to the Dred Scott decision. Did he mean it or was he pandering to minorities I wonder?

[Mickey]

This rumor has been making the rounds and it doesn't appear to be true.  In fact,  Bush has a scheduled campaign stop in NJ Monday.  You'll find proof of that in the right hand column on the following site,  in the section dealing with the poll.

 

http://www.politicsnj.com/

 

I don't immediately have anything regarding Bush's visits/ads in Pennsylvania,  but given that I think everyone would consider him much more likely to win there than in New Jersey,  he's probably not pulling out there,  either.

 

BTW,  here's a much better article detailing his Monday NJ visit:

 

http://www.nj.com/news/bridgeton/local/ind...18473155771.xml

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I don't see him pulling out of there but the problem is that the ads cost a bundle in that market. That money might be spent better in Arkansas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and Maine. It must be a tough choice for the campaign manager types.