Thunderstealer Posted April 17, 2008 Posted April 17, 2008 Staring at "Interesting numbers" is the only way to lobby for Losman as starter. You could never come to this belief by watching games.
keepthefaith Posted April 17, 2008 Author Posted April 17, 2008 This might be the dumbest post I've seen in the offseason. Let's address this one claim at a time, pretending that they deserve merit. Lee had more yds per game with JP in there. While that looks true statistically, you forget to take REAL LIFE into account. The O was far less likely to throw the ball with a rookie in there than with a veteran. That sucked for Lee but that was the reality. LE's numbers had nothing to do with JP being a BETTER PLAYER, but more to do with the fact that Trent was a NEW PLAYER with a shorter leash. Thus, fewer passes, fewer catches, lower stats. Very simple. Marshawn had more yards when JP was playing than when Trent was playing. Again, looking purely at the stats, this sure looks good. However, again, REAL LIFE comes into play to strike down another stupid theory. When a Rookie QB is in, the offense is far more likely to run than throw. That's born out by the stat we just discussed a moment ago. Also, two of Trent's starts were in blizzard conditions. Again, that even further diminishes the odds that on a given play a team is going to throw the ball. And lastly, looking at the pure stats, Marshawn had twice as many total carries while Trent was in the game. Over that time he was much more likely to have a lower average as he had many more chances of getting stuffed. As for the "big play" non-dispute, I would disagree for one simple reason. Again, JP has had more time with Evans, and is thus more comfortable throwing to him on all routes. At least, that was the case at the beginning of last season. However, IIRC, TE and LE hooked up on a number of long TD completions in the later half of the season, at about the time LE stopped suggesting that JP should be the starter. Also, IIRC, TE had a nice bomb to RP as well. Once the offense is a bit less conservative with SF gone and TE ready to take complete and comfortable charge, the passes to LE going long will go up. This whining is ridiculous. JP had his three years in the sun and he got baked. He's backup material and no more. This debate really has to stop and is really getting old. TE is the starter now. Get behind him 100% and lets see what the season bring. Thanks for taking the bait. We may never know all the reasons the Bills went with Trent last year. Trent will have alot to prove this year along with a coach that has to operate more now from a sense of urgency.
Orton's Arm Posted April 17, 2008 Posted April 17, 2008 Your logic has so many holes it's beyond comprehension. Without getting incredibly in depth the only real fair way to compare is only counting the games one or the other attempted all the passes in, especially if your counting rushing yards. It also means counting all rushers towards the average yards per rushing attempt, not just Lynch. You might say Lynch didn't start all the games for JP, then I might say thats counteracted by the improved RYPA Losman brings with scrambling, which I saw in numerous games after I broke this down. Before I digress to much lets get back to the idiocy..... You don't factor in the run defense/pass defense strength the two faced, or the weather conditions Trent faced at the end of the year that JP never faced. Conditions that screamed stack the box. I'll break it down for you in a fair way, but before I do I know one thing for sure, Evans should always have better numbers with JP then Trent. Wouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They both excel at the same thing, namely getting the ball down field. Thats why they both got drafted together, and thats why Lee was crying for JP the whole year. If you want to build an offense around a QB who can only go deep, because his best wide outs best strength is to go deep, I'll show you a thousand ways to defend that. Actually, I don't have to show you anything, just watch the Bills games during the JP era when he and this team was riddled with inconsistency. On to the FAIR comparison. JP started and finished Denver Pittsburgh Cincinnati Miami New England Jacksonville Average rush defense faced: 4.3RYPA Average pass defense faced: 198.7YPPG Average Temperature: 60 Average Wind: 7.8mph Bills average RYPA in these games: 4.06 Evans average yards in these games: 51.8 Trent started and finished vs New York Jets Dallas Baltimore Washington Miami Cleveland New York Giants Philadelphia Average rush defense faced: 3.9RYPA Average pass defense faced: 211YPPG Average Temperature: 50.4 Average Wind: 13.9mph Bills average RYPA in these games: 4.05 Evans average yards in these games: 49.1 Edwards and our RB's faced run defenses .4 yards better then JP and finished with a YPC average of .01 yards worse. JP and Lee faced pass defenses 12.3 yards better then Trent and Lee. JP and Lee averaged 2.7 more yards in then Trent and Lee did. JP averaged playing in temperatures 9.4 degrees warmer then Trent, and with 6.1MPH winds less then Trent. Trent played in three times the amount of precipitation then JP. Putting stats in context suck for those who don't, and form theories based on that. If you wanna come back latter, I'll be watching you got served. That's a great post!
keepthefaith Posted April 17, 2008 Author Posted April 17, 2008 Interesting points. I suspect JP isn't dead yet, and this is probably the best place for him. If TE gets injured or if he outplays him he may actually get another shot somewhere down the line. For now the question appears to be settled, but who knows how the cards will play out, and JP's numbers have not been all that bad. I suspect you'll take a lot of hits on this board for your position though! The "heat" was expected. It'll be an interesting season.
Stenbar Posted April 17, 2008 Posted April 17, 2008 Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch are the best talent that the Bills have at their positions. Interestingly when looking at the production by Lee and Marshawn for last season in games played by JP or Trent, there is a noteworthy difference in their performances. Lee avaraged 65 yards per game receiving when JP was QB (455 yards in 7 games - including Jets game while JP was in there)and 40 yards per game (394 yards in 10 games - including Jets game while Trent was in there). Marshawn ran for a 4.3 yards per carry (88 carries for 380 yards) with JP at QB and 3.8 yards per carry (192 carries for 735 yards) with Trent at QB. Could it be that opposing defenses respect the pass more with JP in there giving Marshawn a bit more running room? I doubt that anyone on the board would dispute that JP finds Lee more more big plays more often than does Trent. Wouldn't you want the guy in there that can best utilize the best offensive players this team has? Looks like a no-brainer to me. Here we go again....
keepthefaith Posted April 17, 2008 Author Posted April 17, 2008 No offense but this is completely stupid. The teams JP started against were terrible defensive teams (DEN, CIN). Trent played against much better defensive competition. But please conionue to slant the stats to win your argument. Also, there is no dumber justification to playing a QB than his #1 receiver's stats. Here's something you didn't think of. If Lee Evans is the one getting the ball, guess what teams are gonna do to Evans. Take him out of gameplans. Thus, and this is something Losman has always struggled with, teams force other guys to beat them. If a QB can spread the ball around more, it is much harder to defense. So there goes that argument. And finally to end this whole stupid premise for all, JP is a 4 year veteran and Trent is a rookie. The fact they are even comparable speaks volumes. And check the stats: Trent has completed more 20+ yard passes per pattempt than JP. There goes the notation of JP is a much better big play making. Seriously, this is act is so tiring. Trent is the starting QB of the Bills. If you are a fan of the team, support them man and realize he is light years ahead of Losman after both their first years of starting. Losman lose his job because he couldn't get the job done. You Losmanics are the sole reason why I can't way for Losman to get traded. Nails on a blackboard. What's so surprising to me is how sure so many folks on this board are sure that Trent is the answer and that JP will never be a good QB in this league. Both of these premises are a long way from being determined.
UticaBill Posted April 17, 2008 Posted April 17, 2008 I am a huge JP supporter, but I wasn't blind to what I saw from TE in the preseason and I wasn't blind to the efficiency TE moved the chains once he took over... he has the one thing JP has lacked as a starter, the ability to keeps the chains moving.... Maybe we get even more from TE this year, or maybe he flops, we shall see, but TE has done everything a backup should do, and earned himself a starting position last year. JP is usually at his best when challenged, but he seems to not be able to sustain the energy level and gets lazy. He is up for a contract, if he wants starter money, then he had better out play TE in the preseason and EARN his job back, otherwise when the FA opens he's going to be surprised how thin the air is out there..... as I said, I am a JP supporter, I liked the Kid, and would love for him to do well either here or elsewhere, but JP has lost his job to a Rookie and says a lot about where JP is in his development right there..... I know he's had hardships and new offenses to learn and coaching turnover and a line that was still jelling.... but he lost his job to a ROOKIE at the hardest position in football!!!! Trent out played JP, not by much, but what does that say about JP??? He's NOT a rookie anymore, and he'll be in his 3rd year with the same offense for the first time.... he has NO EXCUSES not to go out there and earn his job right back from TE... and if he can't... Then support Trent and stop trying to drive a wedge into the team you claim to love.
Billadelphia Posted April 17, 2008 Posted April 17, 2008 So, Trent Edwards as a ROOKIE, put up comparable stats to our veteran QB, and you think this is a sign we should start the veteran? Interesting.... Thank you, Ray. At least you're speaking the truth, unlike the original poster.
K-9 Posted April 18, 2008 Posted April 18, 2008 What's so surprising to me is how sure so many folks on this board are sure that Trent is the answer and that JP will never be a good QB in this league. Both of these premises are a long way from being determined. The premise of JP becoming a good QB in this league is FAR FAR more determined than Edwards'. GO BILLS!!!
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