More evidence that JP should be the starter

keepthefaith · April 17, 2008

Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch are the best talent that the Bills have at their positions. Interestingly when looking at the production by Lee and Marshawn for last season in games played by JP or Trent, there is a noteworthy difference in their performances.

Lee avaraged 65 yards per game receiving when JP was QB (455 yards in 7 games - including Jets game while JP was in there)and 40 yards per game (394 yards in 10 games - including Jets game while Trent was in there).

Marshawn ran for a 4.3 yards per carry (88 carries for 380 yards) with JP at QB and 3.8 yards per carry (192 carries for 735 yards) with Trent at QB.

Could it be that opposing defenses respect the pass more with JP in there giving Marshawn a bit more running room? I doubt that anyone on the board would dispute that JP finds Lee more more big plays more often than does Trent. Wouldn't you want the guy in there that can best utilize the best offensive players this team has? Looks like a no-brainer to me.

destro32 · April 17, 2008

If you like 7-9 or worse and missing the play-offs every year, JP is your guy.... It's not always about the numbers and he has had ample time to improve yet he makes the same mistakes and has shown very little growth.... The jury is still out on Trent but I like his improvement already and I like what he did last year in critical situations - i.e. end of Wash game and taking us down to the 10 in the Clev game!!

C.Biscuit97 · April 17, 2008

No offense but this is completely stupid. The teams JP started against were terrible defensive teams (DEN, CIN). Trent played against much better defensive competition. But please conionue to slant the stats to win your argument.

Also, there is no dumber justification to playing a QB than his #1 receiver's stats. Here's something you didn't think of. If Lee Evans is the one getting the ball, guess what teams are gonna do to Evans. Take him out of gameplans. Thus, and this is something Losman has always struggled with, teams force other guys to beat them. If a QB can spread the ball around more, it is much harder to defense. So there goes that argument.

And finally to end this whole stupid premise for all, JP is a 4 year veteran and Trent is a rookie. The fact they are even comparable speaks volumes. And check the stats: Trent has completed more 20+ yard passes per pattempt than JP. There goes the notation of JP is a much better big play making.

Seriously, this is act is so tiring. Trent is the starting QB of the Bills. If you are a fan of the team, support them man and realize he is light years ahead of Losman after both their first years of starting. Losman lose his job because he couldn't get the job done. You Losmanics are the sole reason why I can't way for Losman to get traded. Nails on a blackboard. :wallbash:

MartyBall4Buffalo · April 17, 2008

Marshawn Lynch sucked against Miami when JP played, vs his excellent game vs miami the 2nd time around when Trent played.

10 Nov 11 @ MIA W 13-10 19 61 3.2 18 1

14 Dec 9 MIA W 38-17 23 107 4.7 11 0

This doesn't really prove anything other then you can twist stats to state anything you basically want to say

Oh and we actually had a better running game with trent at qb in this game, then any previous game that JP ever started.

Curse Of Rusty Jones · April 17, 2008

No matter how you slice it, this crusade must live on...remember, being right IS the only thing that matters

Being Right about JP > Winning

C.Biscuit97 · April 17, 2008

I would have loved to see Detroit boards after they finally cut Joey Harrington.

Adam · April 17, 2008

We should give Vince Ferragamo another shot at starting

Dibs · April 17, 2008

What is the point of this?

Mikie2times · April 17, 2008

Your logic has so many holes it's beyond comprehension. Without getting incredibly in depth the only real fair way to compare is only counting the games one or the other attempted all the passes in, especially if your counting rushing yards. It also means counting all rushers towards the average yards per rushing attempt, not just Lynch. You might say Lynch didn't start all the games for JP, then I might say thats counteracted by the improved RYPA Losman brings with scrambling, which I saw in numerous games after I broke this down. Before I digress to much lets get back to the idiocy.....

You don't factor in the run defense/pass defense strength the two faced, or the weather conditions Trent faced at the end of the year that JP never faced. Conditions that screamed stack the box. I'll break it down for you in a fair way, but before I do I know one thing for sure, Evans should always have better numbers with JP then Trent. Wouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They both excel at the same thing, namely getting the ball down field. Thats why they both got drafted together, and thats why Lee was crying for JP the whole year. If you want to build an offense around a QB who can only go deep, because his best wide outs best strength is to go deep, I'll show you a thousand ways to defend that. Actually, I don't have to show you anything, just watch the Bills games during the JP era when he and this team was riddled with inconsistency.

On to the FAIR comparison.

JP started and finished

Denver

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

Miami

New England

Jacksonville

Average rush defense faced: 4.3RYPA

Average pass defense faced: 198.7YPPG

Average Temperature: 60

Average Wind: 7.8mph

Bills average RYPA in these games: 4.06

Evans average yards in these games: 51.8

Trent started and finished vs

New York Jets

Dallas

Baltimore

Washington

Miami

Cleveland

New York Giants

Philadelphia

Average rush defense faced: 3.9RYPA

Average pass defense faced: 211YPPG

Average Temperature: 50.4

Average Wind: 13.9mph

Bills average RYPA in these games: 4.05

Evans average yards in these games: 49.1

Edwards and our RB's faced run defenses .4 yards better then JP and finished with a YPC average of .01 yards worse.

JP and Lee faced pass defenses 12.3 yards better then Trent and Lee. JP and Lee averaged 2.7 more yards in then Trent and Lee did.

JP averaged playing in temperatures 9.4 degrees warmer then Trent, and with 6.1MPH winds less then Trent.

Trent played in three times the amount of precipitation then JP.

Putting stats in context suck for those who don't, and form theories based on that. If you wanna come back latter, I'll be watching you got served.

Huuuge Bills · April 17, 2008

:wallbash:

ax4782 · April 17, 2008

This might be the dumbest post I've seen in the offseason. Let's address this one claim at a time, pretending that they deserve merit.

Lee had more yds per game with JP in there. While that looks true statistically, you forget to take REAL LIFE into account. The O was far less likely to throw the ball with a rookie in there than with a veteran. That sucked for Lee but that was the reality. LE's numbers had nothing to do with JP being a BETTER PLAYER, but more to do with the fact that Trent was a NEW PLAYER with a shorter leash. Thus, fewer passes, fewer catches, lower stats. Very simple.

Marshawn had more yards when JP was playing than when Trent was playing. Again, looking purely at the stats, this sure looks good. However, again, REAL LIFE comes into play to strike down another stupid theory. When a Rookie QB is in, the offense is far more likely to run than throw. That's born out by the stat we just discussed a moment ago. Also, two of Trent's starts were in blizzard conditions. Again, that even further diminishes the odds that on a given play a team is going to throw the ball. And lastly, looking at the pure stats, Marshawn had twice as many total carries while Trent was in the game. Over that time he was much more likely to have a lower average as he had many more chances of getting stuffed.

As for the "big play" non-dispute, I would disagree for one simple reason. Again, JP has had more time with Evans, and is thus more comfortable throwing to him on all routes. At least, that was the case at the beginning of last season. However, IIRC, TE and LE hooked up on a number of long TD completions in the later half of the season, at about the time LE stopped suggesting that JP should be the starter. Also, IIRC, TE had a nice bomb to RP as well. Once the offense is a bit less conservative with SF gone and TE ready to take complete and comfortable charge, the passes to LE going long will go up. This whining is ridiculous. JP had his three years in the sun and he got baked. He's backup material and no more. This debate really has to stop and is really getting old. TE is the starter now. Get behind him 100% and lets see what the season bring.

SABURZFAN · April 17, 2008

all i have to tell you is..... keep the faith.

Pyrite Gal · April 17, 2008

JP being named the starter or even having an equal footing shot (and actually even having an unequal footing shot) at the starters job in Buffalo just ain't gonna happen.

He himself declared the Jax game make or break for his career as a Bill and its hard to draw any other conclusion than that he broke.

As long as JP is a Bill he could conceivably get a shot at starting only if Edwards suffered an injury which cost him PT.

Even then there are several things which would have to happen beyond any statistical case in order for him to truly win the starters job. They are:

1. Win the confidence of his teammates- This could conceivably happen in this what have you done for me lately NFL life. Despite what knee-jerk JP detractors say, he clearly has shown as recently as the NYJ game last year where Edwards just simply failed to be productive with the team and got knocked out with an injury (the injury issue is a concern as it should be with any QB in the NFL but even despite his troubled history with injury in college it is way too early to label him injury prone so this concern is not a worry without further evidence).

JP's play was a key to winning the NYJ game where Edwards failed prior to his injury. Further, those who simply rag on JP seem to forget that he took this chance to play well enough that though the Bills coaches wanted to bring Edwards back in he had to sit for at least a week though healthy because JP was simply performing to well to bench.

If he gets into the line-up and patches together a couple of wins like last year he could quite easily win back the confidence of his teammates.

2. However, winning his fellow players loyalty is only part of the equation and actually is the less important piece compared to winning the confidence of the HC, OC and QB coach.

These men like the players are heavily motivated by winning and JP despite whatever statistical case folks want to cobble together to claim he is a bum (these rants as well as the one which is pro-JP which started this thread show how stats can be used to prove just about anything). The coaching braintrust is more of a believer in a player they pickede rather than someone chosen by the old regime.

They are most motivated by winning and like last year if JP is the QB while the team is winning they would not sit him even though they were more enthused about the guy they picked. However. JP could read the handwriting on the wall hence him calling himself out. When he broke in the Jax game it was a simple thing to sit him and go with their guy Edwards (particularly when he showed he came to play upon getting back in the line-up and his outstanding performance for a rookie made the job his as the season ended and he proved unable to play well in bad weather toward the end of the season (I'm sure some statistical excuses for his unproductive play can be found but these excuses simply demonstrate that though Edwards is definitely and correctly our starter he has not shown he deserves this nod with performance rather than potential on the field.

3. He needs to restore the faith of Bills fans. This I think can be done for a majority of the fans. As much as folks like to pretend there is only one right answer to the question of who should be the starting QB, there actually are multiple right answers depending on what type of fan one chooses to be. I think (it is merely MHO) that the majority of Bills fans actually could love either player as the starter. Some our die-hard Bills fans and whoever wears the colors they root for. Many others who root for the team are actually casual rooters and they care little which player is starting.

I think the 3rd largest group are simply ticked at JP for never proving himself and for disappointing them so many times as the playoff droughted Bills have disappointed them. Many of these folks will never forget or forgive and would definitely prefer to see JP gone. The most virulent of these fans concoct statistical fantasy which equal the pro JP statistical bending which started this thread. This is where a bunch of the WGR callers come from.

A fourth group and I think the smallest cadre are JP rooters for some reason and seemingly will forgive him anything.

4. The fourth group he needs to win over is the media and this will never happen. Folks like GR make too much money selling commercials listened to by JP haters and as the one sports radio station in this town. Legends in their own minds like Jerry Sullivan are hard at work trying to provoke the next QB controversy which makes their job of filling column inches easy to do. A swath of the media will never forgive JP and are happy to trade on the loudest voices in the third group to stir up trouble even though it makes the team less effective.

JP start? i don't think so.

todd · April 17, 2008

Or it could be that JP locks on to a single target and doesn't spread the ball around, and marshawn runs more because they are afraid to put the ball in JPs hands.

eball · April 17, 2008

Good strategy, starting this thread after Bill in NYC's bedtime. He'll spit out his breakfast when he sees it today, though.

Mickey · April 17, 2008

Why not include all the stats? This throws out the New England game where Trent played all but the first series and the second Jet game where he played the first three quarters.

These kinds of stat fests don't really show much but if we are going to jump in that swamp, let all the mud fly.

thebug · April 17, 2008

If everyone would just copy their responses to this thread onto the clipboard, then you can save time by just pasting them later when he posts this again another 6 times.....

Go Bills!

nodnarb · April 17, 2008

Well, keepthefaith, the coaches know more than you do and determined that Edwards is better and has more upside. Their analysis runs a lot deeper than a small handful of stats. Ya might wanna get used to JP and his backup status.

He's a good kid and easy to pull for, but....

tennesseeboy · April 17, 2008

Interesting points. I suspect JP isn't dead yet, and this is probably the best place for him. If TE gets injured or if he outplays him he may actually get another shot somewhere down the line. For now the question appears to be settled, but who knows how the cards will play out, and JP's numbers have not been all that bad. I suspect you'll take a lot of hits on this board for your position though!

RayFinkle · April 17, 2008

So, Trent Edwards as a ROOKIE, put up comparable stats to our veteran QB, and you think this is a sign we should start the veteran? Interesting.... :beer:

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