UticaBill Posted April 15, 2008 Posted April 15, 2008 Well I am a pretty big Fantasy Football nut and while I fully realize that there are huge differences between the two, I think the draft strategies used in FF can be also applied to the real world. One of the winningest techiniques in FF is Value based drafting or VBD. This is a method of looking ahead at other teams needs to estimate where the best value is on any given pick. So looking at everyone's mocks... I started thinking about doing a VBD mock for the real draft and see what happens.... I've used a few sources to compile rankings and then averaged them to get a feel for each tier of players... #11 Derrick Harvey -DE- He makes our front seven better and in turn helps the back four... Schobel is 30 and has or is at his peak.... #41 Martellus Bennett -TE- he is a better value than any of the WR's that will still be here... and there are some good WRs to be had in the 3rd. #72 Earl Bennett -WR- he isn't the big WR everyone wants, but he is a good complimentary weapon to Evans and is at least 6ft. #114 Mike McGlynn -OG- Not a pretty pick but great value and provides needed depth with future potential #132 Doug Legurski -C- Both Fowler and Preston are FAs next season.... Doug would be a nice fit and has potential to start #147 Jacob Hester -FB- Top rated FB this draft, and a potential weapon right away. #179 Taj Smith -WR- Watched this kid all year... mostly a personal choice... but I think he could be a nice backup and STer #219 Kennard Cox -FS/CB- depth and is versatile. #224 Mark Margo -LB- Depth and can play inside or outside... #251 Matt Flynn -QB- Not sure he would still be available, but I expect the Bills to take a QB somewhere...and this guy would be great value if he lasts.
UticaBill Posted April 16, 2008 Author Posted April 16, 2008 I guess the MOCKs aren't getting any attention now that the schedule is out?
Astrobot Posted April 16, 2008 Posted April 16, 2008 Exactly. As Willy Wonka put it, "We have so little to do, and so much time!" Like the early part of your mock. I just don't understand VBD.
UticaBill Posted April 16, 2008 Author Posted April 16, 2008 Exactly. As Willy Wonka put it, "We have so little to do, and so much time!" Like the early part of your mock. I just don't understand VBD. Basically you group the various positions into tiers, such as the first 5 wrs are all about the same talent this year so that would be tier #1.... then the next group and so on.... then you look a head and see how many teams have needs at each positions you are considering and determine where the shortest supply is hopefully allowing the larger supply to last a little longer (and maybe back to you) by causing a run at the shorter position... also, you would be getting a higher valued tier at say TE in the 2nd round where as the WR tier is mostly the same where we would pick in the 3rd... however losing that top tier TE would force us to possibly the 2nd or 3rd tier by the time we would pick in the 3rd... There is also a grading system used on the tiers since some are not as big a jump from one to the next as others... sometimes the drop is only one tier, but the talent level is 3 tiers lower! (IF you understand all that drivel)
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