Mikie2times Posted April 10, 2008 Author Share Posted April 10, 2008 Just shows how badass Sweed is. Not many people can say their dick was mistaken for a rocket ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 I'm with ya. He's a perfect fit for the 2nd round now. Small risk but produced on the field. You do realize that even a safety can cover him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 You do realize that even a safety can cover him. No, and neither do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 I think folks are making the mistake that they are deciding where a player will be based on their assessment of his talent when the actual occurrence of where he will be picked will be based on the assessment of MULTIPLE evaluators based on their player assessments/team needs assessment/and the unknowable of how this draft is going to actually occur. One can easily assess Kelly as being a WR talent who merits a #2 choice, but if the draft plays out like it has for the Bills the last two years in a row where a player they did not have an immediate need for but was high on their charts slipped to the 3rd pick they chose Youbouty (who many professional evaluators had as a 1st round talent) and Edwards (who many professional evaluators had easily being snapped early in the second round. My sense is that any evaluation worth being taken seriously has to be either an exhaustive treatment which shows analysis of what each team needs and then factors in slippage (and of course the more detailed it is the quicker it will be come null and void by surprises in the draft from a Whitner going earlier than anyone but Maycock predicted or a Brady Quinn slipping to a spot far lower than expectations) or provide their assessment of him as a player separate from where folks predict he will go in the draft as these are simply two different things. My sense from years of watching the draft at least semi-closely and years of getting it wrong in significant ways is that the two factors which bode most badly for Kelly is that he has screwed up the all important expectation game and provided enough substantive ammo for the debates which occur on all teams for him to drop on charts across the league, Further this appears to be a strong year for the number but not the quality of WRs (a bunch of low first round talents. My guess is that Kelly actually pulls a Youbouty and slips to the 3rd before someone deems him too much of a steal to pass on. He is probably a 2nd rounder in demographics and raw talent even with the lousy 40 (an overrated stat if there ever was one) but the psychology really works against someone taking him in the 2nd round as the GM would need to be a true believer in Kelly as there will likely be several other hard to rag on choices available in the second. Ironically, I think the 40 time makes it more likely he may be a Bill as our braintrust has shown a clear willingness to buck history and convention and also we have 10 picks so we are going to take a flyer or two in this draft. Add to that we will likely need to pick up two WRs in this draft and Kelly is looking more and more like a Bill to me but it may well be as late as the 3rd round pick despite the fact that I still assess his talent as justifying a higher choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 well he ran a 4.68 too - so he's getting there already.... had a 32-inch vertical jump, 9-foot, 9-inch long jump, 4.24 short shuttle, 7.00 cone drill, and ran position drills. Kelly looked very good. » DB Reggie Smith (6-0 1/8, 192): Ran the 40 in 4.65 and 4.61, had a 39 ½-inch vertical jump, 10-foot, 9-inch long jump, 4.03 short shuttle, 6.70 cone drill, ran position drills. Vertical was not great. and his short shuttle was just ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynchMob23 Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 To me, getting Kelly as a LATE 2nd or 3rd round pick would be ideal. The speed thing doesn't matter to me - the tantrums, blaming his coaching staff, medics, surface (which isn't used in the NFL anymore anyway) and talking about how much money his school cost him...That drops him the extra round. Did we ever hear that Limas Sweed lost it on Texas? Heck, I was jumping down Hardy's throat on a post, but he at least owned up to the fact his coach called him out on his behavior before his passing. Malcolm has just done the reverse - set himself up as a high character guy and then adversity hits...and he crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 I think that's its more pass or fail on the character and measurables. Its not about minute differences in measurables, but whether he meets certain standards. If he doesn't, his draft stock is impacted accordingly. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 You do realize that even a safety can cover him. our DEs could cover him at that speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 To me, getting Kelly as a LATE 2nd or 3rd round pick would be ideal. The speed thing doesn't matter to me - the tantrums, blaming his coaching staff, medics, surface (which isn't used in the NFL anymore anyway) and talking about how much money his school cost him...That drops him the extra round. Did we ever hear that Limas Sweed lost it on Texas? Heck, I was jumping down Hardy's throat on a post, but he at least owned up to the fact his coach called him out on his behavior before his passing. Malcolm has just done the reverse - set himself up as a high character guy and then adversity hits...and he crumbles. and he has bad knees which may be the cause of the slow time. bad knees that will not improve with pounding in the NFL bad knees that don't get better in the 2nd or 3rd round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynchMob23 Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Bad knees are relative - Lee has two reconstructed knees if I recall from his pre draft notes...he's done alright for himself in the league. As well as the former malcontent that was in the pro bowl at running back. Youtube can show how good his knees used to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Two points: 1.) Regarding his 'measureables', his performance in all categories may be directly linked to the quad tear. He's run much better in the past if reports of his times from last year are true. Why would he, his agent, or medical personnel LET him perform if he wasn't 100%? Don't know why. But if medical personnel from a team interested in drafting him deems that the injury WILL heal completely then he's less of a physical risk and his 'measureables' will improve accordingly. 2.) Regarding his temper tantrum. Has he shown this tendency in the past? If he has then that's revealing and a far more important issue. If he hasn't, then I can at least understand his frustration and anger even if it was the entirely wrong thing to do. Kids do entirely wrong things all the time. But I ask how a kid would feel KNOWING that his performance, good or bad, would mean the difference of MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Think about that. Like I said, it was immature to get demonstrably angry in front of potential employers but my bet is that if his attitude hasn't been an issue in the past then teams will overlook this in light of the tremendous stakes. If I'm a potential employer I ask him how is he going to go about making up for it in the future? There's one answer I want to hear: "I'm gonna bust my ass to be the best receiver in the draft and prove all the doubters wrong. I'm gonna EARN that next contract on the field!" GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 That 4.75 would probably be enough to scare me away until at least R3 unless he can redeem himself with a faster run in the next two weeks. As we all know, speed can't really be taught. If that really is indicative of his speed, I think he faces very long odds of making it. There comes a point where a player is simply too slow to make it in the NFL. That doesn't mean he's not worth taking a chance on, but I think there will be safer prospects available with about as much upside at their respective positions at least through R2, if not 3. But again, if between now and the draft he runs in the general neighborhood of a 4.55 or even 4.6 for some team in a private workout, it changes matters quite a bit. Totally agree. Im not saying the 40yrd dash is the end all be all but when a speed position like receiver is running in the 4.7's there is in all likelyhood going to be a separation problem when that receiver enters the NFL. It happened to Mike Williams & Dwayne Jarrett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Totally agree. Im not saying the 40yrd dash is the end all be all but when a speed position like receiver is running in the 4.7's there is in all likelyhood going to be a separation problem when that receiver enters the NFL. It happened to Mike Williams & Dwayne Jarrett. It also happens to virtually all receivers as they age. I'd venture a guess that Eric Moulds probably still runs a 4.75. Anyone want to sign him up? Not I. At some point, a poor 40 time becomes indicative not only of poor top end speed, but of poor speed in general. Not only will their 40 time be bad, but the 10 and 20 yard split times will as well. Once in a great while, there will be an exception who will break that mold, but its rare. There are plenty of examples of great college players in every draft who can't run and never do anything in the NFL. In fact, we usually have this same conversation every year about someone and most of them, not all, but most, never make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 It all depends on 2 things: 1. The market- if like Youbouty and Edwards he slips and his available in the 3rd (which I think is likely given the high expectations set for his sprint test which he did not meet and the sense that this is a rich draft in 1st day draft choice talent) the Bills have enough draft picks to meet our needs (another WR to draw attention from Evans or revel in single coverage as Evans is DT'ed, a TE to help 3rd down conversion, even more depth at LB and on DL for penetration and pressure) so we can take a flyer on a second WR (as the loss of Aiken and Price means two WR spots are available). 2. Looking Kelly in the eye- His tantrum raises legit concerns about his character, but as the Bills have shown, while they emphasize character, they are quite willing to take character risks when others testify to the character of a player despite bad moments (Butler is an example) or when they have a clear need (Hargrove is an example). There is a far greater likelihood today than last week that Kelly may slip to the third where we have a recent history of taking talent (Edwards and Youbouty) who slipped down the board. If he slips to the third you take him and if in the interviews he demonstrated to the braintrust that his tantrums were a Butler like aberration in his character, he may even be worth a trade up in the 3rd (like Edwards to get this "near 1st Rd" talent. If however, we shook his hand and looked him in the eye and his excuses post workout were possibly (or probably) the signs of more to come then run do not walk away from him. The funny thing is that some folks on TSW seem so drop dead certain you take him because Jerry Rice has a horrible 40 time or that you avoid him because of his knees (this latter view seems particular mindless of the past since the Bills docs made a far more informed call to take Thurman when injury worries made him slip or even the correct physical call that Willis could come back from knee issue- though mentally this legend in his own mind was not worth the trouble). The key with Kelly are simply pieces of information in terms of looking into his eyes and looking at his X-Rays that posters do not have. My sense is that 2nd round there likely will be too many other viable options to risk taking him but that in the 3rd round he may be the steal of the draft if he drops to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 It also happens to virtually all receivers as they age. I'd venture a guess that Eric Moulds probably still runs a 4.75. Anyone want to sign him up? Not I. At some point, a poor 40 time becomes indicative not only of poor top end speed, but of poor speed in general. Not only will their 40 time be bad, but the 10 and 20 yard split times will as well. Once in a great while, there will be an exception who will break that mold, but its rare. There are plenty of examples of great college players in every draft who can't run and never do anything in the NFL. In fact, we usually have this same conversation every year about someone and most of them, not all, but most, never make it. But ... but ... Jerry Rice had a slow 40 time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 Don't the Bengals still pick ahead of us in Round 2? If so, he'll be off the board by the time our second pick rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 10, 2008 Share Posted April 10, 2008 But ... but ... Jerry Rice had a slow 40 time! LOL, don't get me started about THAT crap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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