The Definition Of A Reach - A Lot Of People Are Confused IMO

[ans4e64]

I still don't believe that there are teams willing to part with a third rounder to move up every time. How do you think it works? Do you think the Bills start calling teams to trade up? If they do then they haven't gotten trade partners in the past. Also, it may be a risk to lose the guy they want. I say stick where they are but if someone calls and offers a third round pick to move up 15 spots and they think a couple of guys they have targeted will still be there I think they'd do it anyway. I just don't think there are that many teams willing to part with high draft picks that much.

 

I understand, but the point I was trying to make was that you get out of there for whatever you can, even if its a 4th rounder. Teams at the end of the round are there because they have good/great teams, and more likely than not they don't need many positions to fill in the draft. I think many of the later teams would give trade up 10-15 spots if they didn't have to give up the rest of their picks (which is what teams ask for because of the trade chart).

[Steely Dan]

I understand, but the point I was trying to make was that you get out of there for whatever you can, even if its a 4th rounder. Teams at the end of the round are there because they have good/great teams, and more likely than not they don't need many positions to fill in the draft. I think many of the later teams would give trade up 10-15 spots if they didn't have to give up the rest of their picks (which is what teams ask for because of the trade chart).

 

Their caps are also probably stretched thin paying the great players they have. The Colts picked up Joseph Addai at the 30th pick. A lot of teams in that position probably don't feel the need to move up because they are so set at every position.

[ans4e64]

Their caps are also probably stretched thin paying the great players they have. The Colts picked up Joseph Addai at the 30th pick. A lot of teams in that position probably don't feel the need to move up because they are so set at every position.

 

Here is an example of what I am talking about.

 

After us, there are a glut of teams who could use a RB and are reportedly interested in Mendenhall. The range goes from Denver at #12 to Dallas at #22. In there, you've got Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Houston and Dallas all who need or want a RB.

 

Now, maybe none of those teams would be willing to give up their second rounder to move up. I THINK there would be someone who would give up a 2nd or 3rd, BUT even if there aren't, I would almost guarantee that one of those teams would be willing to jump all of those teams to take the RB they covet for only an extra 4th round pick. I think we could get a 3rd, but lets just say 4th. You don't think ONE of those teams would part with a 4th rounder to move up ahead of everyone else to get Mendenhall?

[1gap2gap]

Here is an example of what I am talking about.

 

After us, there are a glut of teams who could use a RB and are reportedly interested in Mendenhall. The range goes from Denver at #12 to Dallas at #22. In there, you've got Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Houston and Dallas all who need or want a RB.

 

Now, maybe none of those teams would be willing to give up their second rounder to move up. I THINK there would be someone who would give up a 2nd or 3rd, BUT even if there aren't, I would almost guarantee that one of those teams would be willing to jump all of those teams to take the RB they covet for only an extra 4th round pick. I think we could get a 3rd, but lets just say 4th. You don't think ONE of those teams would part with a 4th rounder to move up ahead of everyone else to get Mendenhall?

 

 

I think they would!

[Steely Dan]

Here is an example of what I am talking about.

 

After us, there are a glut of teams who could use a RB and are reportedly interested in Mendenhall. The range goes from Denver at #12 to Dallas at #22. In there, you've got Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Houston and Dallas all who need or want a RB.

 

Now, maybe none of those teams would be willing to give up their second rounder to move up. I THINK there would be someone who would give up a 2nd or 3rd, BUT even if there aren't, I would almost guarantee that one of those teams would be willing to jump all of those teams to take the RB they covet for only an extra 4th round pick. I think we could get a 3rd, but lets just say 4th. You don't think ONE of those teams would part with a 4th rounder to move up ahead of everyone else to get Mendenhall?

 

Check this out. Bill Polian discusses moving up in the draft;

 

Polian said good teams like the Colts are less likely than in the past to trade up for an early pick because of the required financial commitment. Last year's top pick, JaMarcus Russell, missed all of training camp in a contract dispute before getting $29 million in guarantees.

 

"Trades are a unique thing in the first round anymore because of the cost of the top 10 picks financially," he said. "To take on that cost ... is almost counterintuitive."

 

Polian said agents have driven up the cost of the early picks, making it more difficult than ever for struggling franchises to improve. He said that cost can hamper teams for years, especially if they make a mistake on a pick or the player gets injured.

 

"The draft was designed to either allow the weakest teams, based on record, to choose the best players, or if they chose not to take a particular player, to gather a bunch of picks to further accelerate their growth and competitiveness," he said. "That's now been skewed by the cost of the picks in the first round.

 

"When that's skewed and changed because of the agents, that isn't a good thing for the game."

 

Linkage

 

I think this is why it's difficult to find trade partners.

[ans4e64]

Check this out. Bill Polian discusses moving up in the draft;

 

Polian said good teams like the Colts are less likely than in the past to trade up for an early pick because of the required financial commitment. Last year's top pick, JaMarcus Russell, missed all of training camp in a contract dispute before getting $29 million in guarantees.

 

"Trades are a unique thing in the first round anymore because of the cost of the top 10 picks financially," he said. "To take on that cost ... is almost counterintuitive."

 

Polian said agents have driven up the cost of the early picks, making it more difficult than ever for struggling franchises to improve. He said that cost can hamper teams for years, especially if they make a mistake on a pick or the player gets injured.

 

"The draft was designed to either allow the weakest teams, based on record, to choose the best players, or if they chose not to take a particular player, to gather a bunch of picks to further accelerate their growth and competitiveness," he said. "That's now been skewed by the cost of the picks in the first round.

 

"When that's skewed and changed because of the agents, that isn't a good thing for the game."

 

Linkage

 

I think this is why it's difficult to find trade partners.

 

I agree with Polian. But that is one guy, do you think Jerry Jones is worried about the financial commitment of Darren McFadden?

[1gap2gap]

Polian was talking about moving up into the top five or top ten. Not moving up in general! Bills are in an excellent position because they are the first pick out of the top ten and the money drops.

[Steely Dan]

I agree with Polian. But that is one guy, do you think Jerry Jones is worried about the financial commitment of Darren McFadden?

 

Yes, do you really think Parcells would turn down an offer from Jones which would probably be his two first round picks and more?

 

Would you believe Jones himself?

 

Why? Because I listened to what Jones had to say on this subject, and believed him. Believed him because Jerry has been consistent in recent years on how he spends his football money.

 

"I have no intent at all of moving into the top five," Jones said, while also stressing this was not a comment on McFadden's talent, but a fear factor of paying any rookie today's top-five going rate.

 

"A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six. It's a real negative.

 

"Nobody wants in there, and the teams in there, they want out. This is a very tough draft anyway when it comes to evaluating the talent, and then trying to match up that with the millions it takes to operate at the top of the draft."

 

Linkage

[ans4e64]

Yes, do you really think Parcells would turn down an offer from Jones which would probably be his two first round picks and more?

 

Would you believe Jones himself?

 

Why? Because I listened to what Jones had to say on this subject, and believed him. Believed him because Jerry has been consistent in recent years on how he spends his football money.

 

"I have no intent at all of moving into the top five," Jones said, while also stressing this was not a comment on McFadden's talent, but a fear factor of paying any rookie today's top-five going rate.

 

"A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six. It's a real negative.

 

"Nobody wants in there, and the teams in there, they want out. This is a very tough draft anyway when it comes to evaluating the talent, and then trying to match up that with the millions it takes to operate at the top of the draft."

 

Linkage

 

Okay, once again, to reiterate what 1gap2gap said, he is talking about moving into the top 5. We are not in top 5, or even the top 10. We are at #11 where the money drops significantly.

[1gap2gap]

Yes, do you really think Parcells would turn down an offer from Jones which would probably be his two first round picks and more?

 

Would you believe Jones himself?

 

Why? Because I listened to what Jones had to say on this subject, and believed him. Believed him because Jerry has been consistent in recent years on how he spends his football money.

 

"I have no intent at all of moving into the top five," Jones said, while also stressing this was not a comment on McFadden's talent, but a fear factor of paying any rookie today's top-five going rate.

 

"A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six. It's a real negative.

 

"Nobody wants in there, and the teams in there, they want out. This is a very tough draft anyway when it comes to evaluating the talent, and then trying to match up that with the millions it takes to operate at the top of the draft."

 

Linkage

 

/quote]

 

 

 

The key is "top Five" IMO #6 and Mcfadden is there and the Jets might be in for a trade down situation. Jones was specifc about Top Five - but he never said that he would not trade up.

[Steely Dan]

More from the article;

 

I asked Jones, if McFadden started sliding on draft day, at what point would the Cowboys become interested. Jerry hesitated. Finally, I said, "How about out of the top 10, and he's there at 11?"

 

"You would be safe with that assumption," he replied.

 

The word from Valley Ranch is running back, cornerback and offensive line are the depth positions in this draft. The first two, of course, have high first-round interest for the Cowboys.

 

The odds of McFadden being there are slim to none. You have to remember that the guys teams are willing to trade for will be gone by number 11. If say Gholston or Ellis falls to number 11 I'd rather see Buffalo pick that guy rather than trade unless they could get a lot for it.

[ans4e64]

More from the article;

 

I asked Jones, if McFadden started sliding on draft day, at what point would the Cowboys become interested. Jerry hesitated. Finally, I said, "How about out of the top 10, and he's there at 11?"

 

"You would be safe with that assumption," he replied.

 

The word from Valley Ranch is running back, cornerback and offensive line are the depth positions in this draft. The first two, of course, have high first-round interest for the Cowboys.

 

The odds of McFadden being there are slim to none. You have to remember that the guys teams are willing to trade for will be gone by number 11. If say Gholston or Ellis falls to number 11 I'd rather see Buffalo pick that guy rather than trade unless they could get a lot for it.

 

I really don't understand why you keep posting stuff about Dallas, Darren McFadden, and the top 5, 10, now 11.

 

I not talking about that at all. I gave you an example already. McFadden won't be there when we pick, we all know that.

[1gap2gap]

More from the article;

 

I asked Jones, if McFadden started sliding on draft day, at what point would the Cowboys become interested. Jerry hesitated. Finally, I said, "How about out of the top 10, and he's there at 11?"

 

"You would be safe with that assumption," he replied.

 

The word from Valley Ranch is running back, cornerback and offensive line are the depth positions in this draft. The first two, of course, have high first-round interest for the Cowboys.

 

The odds of McFadden being there are slim to none. You have to remember that the guys teams are willing to trade for will be gone by number 11. If say Gholston or Ellis falls to number 11 I'd rather see Buffalo pick that guy rather than trade unless they could get a lot for it.

 

So your saying that nobody will want Mendenhall, or Sedric Ellis if he drops, or Matt Ryan if he drops like Leinhart did last year? Maybe someone will want to move up to get Kentwan Balmer, or how about one of the CB's, like Cromartie, Jenkins, McKelvin. My point is that anything is possible if you are willing to trade and take less then that stupid draft chart suggest you should take. If the players you target can be had later then move out and gain another pick. It doesn't matter what round the extra pick is in because there is talent all over the draft in every round. You just have to be willing to take what is offered. trading down is always an option that just about every team that is not in the top ten will have. You just have to be willing.

[Steely Dan]

I agree with Polian. But that is one guy, do you think Jerry Jones is worried about the financial commitment of Darren McFadden?

 

 

I really don't understand why you keep posting stuff about Dallas, Darren McFadden, and the top 5, 10, now 11.

 

I not talking about that at all. I gave you an example already. McFadden won't be there when we pick, we all know that.

[Dibs]

As 1gap2gap pointed out, they are talking about top 5/6 type money. The money given to the #11 in the overall scheme of things would not be that much of an encumbrance......what are we talking about? 2-3mil/year difference from the #11 to #22? We just signed a backup DT to a 3.5mil/year deal. I can't see the money being an issue for trade up to #11.

 

ans4e64 makes a good point.....good enough to make me look at things from a different perspective & change my own opinion. His example with the RB is fitting. Arizona for instance might have Mendenhall as their preferred player when the #11 selection comes. Though they may not want to give up much to get their preferred player, they would probably give up something to move up 5 slots. If we on the other hand are determined to take a WR......and we have 2(or 3) that we rate highly(around the same level).....we could be fairly certain that one will still be there at #16. As long as it is not to a direct divisional rival it makes no sense to not trade down......even if it is for a 5th rounder. We'd still get the player we want with the benefits of saving a few $$$ & getting another pick.

[1gap2gap]

As 1gap2gap pointed out, they are talking about top 5/6 type money. The money given to the #11 in the overall scheme of things would not be that much of an encumbrance......what are we talking about? 2-3mil/year difference from the #11 to #22? We just signed a backup DT to a 3.5mil/year deal. I can't see the money being an issue for trade up to #11.

 

ans4e64 makes a good point.....good enough to make me look at things from a different perspective & change my own opinion. His example with the RB is fitting. Arizona for instance might have Mendenhall as their preferred player when the #11 selection comes. Though they may not want to give up much to get their preferred player, they would probably give up something to move up 5 slots. If we on the other hand are determined to take a WR......and we have 2(or 3) that we rate highly(around the same level).....we could be fairly certain that one will still be there at #16. As long as it is not to a direct divisional rival it makes no sense to not trade down......even if it is for a 5th rounder. We'd still get the player we want with the benefits of saving a few $$$ & getting another pick.

 

 

See now here is a person who gets it!!!!!

[BuffaloBilliever]

I find it majorly interesting that people think that a WR is a reach in the first round, when what they have to back that up with is a DE who by most "experts" is considered a reach hands down.

 

Just intruiging... I won't say my part.

[Steely Dan]

As 1gap2gap pointed out, they are talking about top 5/6 type money. The money given to the #11 in the overall scheme of things would not be that much of an encumbrance......what are we talking about? 2-3mil/year difference from the #11 to #22? We just signed a backup DT to a 3.5mil/year deal. I can't see the money being an issue for trade up to #11.

 

ans4e64 makes a good point.....good enough to make me look at things from a different perspective & change my own opinion. His example with the RB is fitting. Arizona for instance might have Mendenhall as their preferred player when the #11 selection comes. Though they may not want to give up much to get their preferred player, they would probably give up something to move up 5 slots. If we on the other hand are determined to take a WR......and we have 2(or 3) that we rate highly(around the same level).....we could be fairly certain that one will still be there at #16. As long as it is not to a direct divisional rival it makes no sense to not trade down......even if it is for a 5th rounder. We'd still get the player we want with the benefits of saving a few $$$ & getting another pick.

 

This is of course assuming there is a player left on the board that other teams covet and don't think will be there when they pick. I believe most teams have two or three guys they want. Not all of them will be gone by their pick. The difference between a top 5 pick and a pick after that, depending on the draft, may not be worth moving up for.

 

Saying Arizona would want to move up 5 slots seems to be a long shot IMO. The only way they would want to is if there is a guy they covet that they are sure will be gone by their pick. Most teams don't covet one particular player enough to move up and give up stuff. When the cost vs. reward is factored in I don't think most teams want to do it. Not only are they spending picks to get the guy they want but they are handing out more money. Bill Polian was asked one time, before FA existed, why he doesn't move up in the draft and he said that it was better to stay where you were rather than move up because you are giving up too much and if that guy busts you've lost too much. I think a lot of teams think that way.

 

Over the last ten drafts how many trades have occurred in the first round? Not many. I would be willing to bet fewer than there are teams that would have wanted to move back. That's the point I'm making. It's not easy for teams to trade back because there just aren't enough teams intersted in it.

 

I'm not saying that if Buffalo get's the opportunity to trade back that they shouldn't, I think they should. The argument here is how easy is it to do. I don't think it's that easy. Would you want Buffalo to trade up 5 spots? I wouldn't they'd be giving up too much IMO. The Bills most likely don't want to move up. How many other teams do you think are thinking the same way? There aren't a lot of teams who want to move up that much. It's not as easy as it sounds.

[Dibs]

This is of course assuming there is a player left on the board that other teams covet and don't think will be there when they pick. I believe most teams have two or three guys they want. Not all of them will be gone by their pick. The difference between a top 5 pick and a pick after that, depending on the draft, may not be worth moving up for.

 

Saying Arizona would want to move up 5 slots seems to be a long shot IMO. The only way they would want to is if there is a guy they covet that they are sure will be gone by their pick. Most teams don't covet one particular player enough to move up and give up stuff. When the cost vs. reward is factored in I don't think most teams want to do it. Not only are they spending picks to get the guy they want but they are handing out more money. Bill Polian was asked one time, before FA existed, why he doesn't move up in the draft and he said that it was better to stay where you were rather than move up because you are giving up too much and if that guy busts you've lost too much. I think a lot of teams think that way.

 

Over the last ten drafts how many trades have occurred in the first round? Not many. I would be willing to bet fewer than there are teams that would have wanted to move back. That's the point I'm making. It's not easy for teams to trade back because there just aren't enough teams intersted in it.

 

I'm not saying that if Buffalo get's the opportunity to trade back that they shouldn't, I think they should. The argument here is how easy is it to do. I don't think it's that easy. Would you want Buffalo to trade up 5 spots? I wouldn't they'd be giving up too much IMO. The Bills most likely don't want to move up. How many other teams do you think are thinking the same way? There aren't a lot of teams who want to move up that much. It's not as easy as it sounds.

The argument being put forward is that if the team trading down was willing to trade down asking a far lesser cost than what has become the norm(trade value chart), there would probably be plenty of teams willing to slide up a few spots to get their preferred player for a lower round pick.

I personally don't think that any team(including the Bills) would ever do this.....even though it makes sense to do. The media & fans would have a field day. For instance......in that trade with Bills-Cardinals.....the chart says it is worth a very high 3rd rounder(250 pts). If the Bills accepted a high 5th rounder instead(40 pts).....even though it would be a benefit to the Bills(in the situation I described).....they would be touted as morons & the boards here would go ballistic.

[ndirish1978]

I am one of those people and I'll tell you why.

 

Everybody goes nuts over this stupid "trade chart." People think that every little point needs to match up, and if it doesn't, it is not a good trade.

 

Bullsh*t.

 

We are at pick number 11. We want to get out of there because:

 

1.) There is nobody at that slot that is worth the money that fits our team.

2.) The money to be paid out is way too high (my own opinion, this would be if we were in the top 5 or 10).

 

Now, everyone thinks that we need to pick up a second rounder, or even 2 firsts, in order to move down or its not a "good" trade. If we can move down in the draft and pick up even another 3rd, while not having to pay someone top 10 money, who isn't a player we are enamored with anyway, you make the trade. You get out of there. I think there are plenty of teams willing to trade an extra 3rd or 4th, or anything, to move up 10-15 slots.

 

People expect that if we trade back we will get 2 firsts, or a 1st and 2nd. Why is it worth staying there and picking a player you don't want, and paying him all that money, when you could get out of there with another 3rd or 4th AND the player you want? That is a good trade. Forget the god damn trade chart, its ridiculous.

 

 

The trade value chart has value. The fact that front offices around the league use it to determine the value of a pick assigns it its value. The 11th pick has a value of 1250. Move down to 22 and you're looking at 780. The 22nd pick in the 3rd rd has a value of 86, for a total received value of 846. The difference amounts basically to the 15th pick in the 2nd rd. Your "I know better then everyone else" logic has the effect of making our front office look like fools to the rest of the league as well as cheating us out of a good player. It's guys like you who think the Dolphins should pass on their #1 pick, slide down 2 or 3 slots just to save money, absolutely ridiculous.