Brandon Posted April 5, 2008 Posted April 5, 2008 I just thought I'd do a quick analysis of the four positions we're mostly arguing over (WR, DB, TE and DE) and see exactly where these guys tend to go in the draft. I've taken each Bills pick (11, 41, 72, and 114) and taken an average of the last five drafts to try to help determine exactly who will and who won't be available at those particular spots. Granted, this will vary by draft, but it may prove a useful rule of thumb, so to speak. This compiled from drafthistory.com. Position: Rank at 11, 41, 72, 114 WR: 3rd best, 6th, 10th, 16th TE: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th DB: 3rd, 9th, 16th, 24th DE: 2nd, 5th, 9th, 12th For example, you could reasonably expect that a TE selected at pick 72 will be about the 5th one off the board, while a DE at the same spot would be the 9th. There are two major limitations of this. One, you can probably ignore the 1st round values. It varies too much year-to-year, but begins to normalize the deeper in the draft you go. Second, the DBs at drafthistory are not separated into CBs and safeties. Best guess? You can probably knock 1/3rd of the value presented off of that rank strictly for CBs. So, for example, that 24th ranking at pick 114 is actually probably more like the 16th best CB at that spot. It may be completely worthless, but then again, the mock drafters may find it somewhat useful, so there it is.
San-O Posted April 5, 2008 Posted April 5, 2008 I just thought I'd do a quick analysis of the four positions we're mostly arguing over (WR, DB, TE and DE) and see exactly where these guys tend to go in the draft. I've taken each Bills pick (11, 41, 72, and 114) and taken an average of the last five drafts to try to help determine exactly who will and who won't be available at those particular spots. Granted, this will vary by draft, but it may prove a useful rule of thumb, so to speak. This compiled from drafthistory.com. Position: Rank at 11, 41, 72, 114 WR: 3rd best, 6th, 10th, 16th TE: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th DB: 3rd, 9th, 16th, 24th DE: 2nd, 5th, 9th, 12th For example, you could reasonably expect that a TE selected at pick 72 will be about the 5th one off the board, while a DE at the same spot would be the 9th. There are two major limitations of this. One, you can probably ignore the 1st round values. It varies too much year-to-year, but begins to normalize the deeper in the draft you go. Second, the DBs at drafthistory are not separated into CBs and safeties. Best guess? You can probably knock 1/3rd of the value presented off of that rank strictly for CBs. So, for example, that 24th ranking at pick 114 is actually probably more like the 16th best CB at that spot. It may be completely worthless, but then again, the mock drafters may find it somewhat useful, so there it is. Interesting. Have you seen the draft sight that gives players an actual value? A certain value player would be considered a franchise player, the next a pro-bowl candidate player an so on?
Brandon Posted April 5, 2008 Author Posted April 5, 2008 Interesting. Have you seen the draft sight that gives players an actual value? A certain value player would be considered a franchise player, the next a pro-bowl candidate player an so on? It has no bearing on individual player valuations whatsoever. The point is just to provide a better idea of how many players are typically off the board at each of those major need positions going into those 2nd-4th round picks. As such, it may be of some use as a rough guide to player availability in those spots, but I'd never state that it was perfect by any means.
San-O Posted April 5, 2008 Posted April 5, 2008 It has no bearing on individual player valuations whatsoever. The point is just to provide a better idea of how many players are typically off the board at each of those major need positions going into those 2nd-4th round picks. As such, it may be of some use as a rough guide to player availability in those spots, but I'd never state that it was perfect by any means. Sure. Just curious.
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