Kiper's Latest Mock Draft

[Lothar]

FWIW, looking at a bunch of post-season pre-workout analyses of players is I think a great basis for deciding if a player has the right intangibles and performance history to succeed. To that end, the Sporting News and a couple other online publications detailed some of their best picks and why others are extremely risky.

 

I really think it comes down to 3 questions and their corollaries:

1. Did you have solid production in school? If not, why not?

2. Can you compete athletically with NFL caliber competition? This is where workouts allow you to compare kids from schools that don't have top-flight competition

3. Do you have the instincts and smarts to play your position? Are you competitive?

 

CB: With respect to cornerbacks, consensus was that Rogers-Cromartie looked like an average player against mediocre competition on game tape. His rise up the charts coincided with his Senior bowl practices and his workout numbers. Buyer beware. McKelvin and Jenkins seem like more complete and tested players at this position.

 

DE: While I wouldn't be disappinted in the selection of the 250lb Harvey (the first choice in this poll), he really would have to put on 15-20 pounds to be effective at this level since I don't see him as on OLB. Frankly, Calais, the 6-8 defensive end fom Miami has received comparisons to Julius Peppers. If you buy into the idea that the inept offense at UM this past year affected the play of their D, he may also be worth a look as a potential star at this position

 

WR: If it comes down to it, I'd rather take Kelly - who has far better hands and is a better blocker than Sweed (who has off-the-field issues and his own wrist injury to make me think he's red flagged on our board). Thomas, from MSU, seems to have a great blend of breakaway speed and size and production - albeit for just 1 year given MSU's coaching flubs the last few years - that I think the Bills consider him if they have doubts about Kelly's knees.

[obie_wan]

I still hold on to the belief that we've got enough picks to grab DE Derrick Harvey, WR Devin Thomas and solid CB in this draft. If we can dump JP Losman for a 4th I like our chances even more.

 

After giving away JP for nothing (when we have extra picks anyway) who is the backup QB?

 

Stupid move to trade JP for less than a high #2.

 

So he walks next year - we lost out on a 4th rounder ---wow!

 

 

Would be a typical Bills move, though, to keep an ex-player happy while creating another huge hole on the current roster with no reasonable way to fill it.

[obie_wan]

FWIW, looking at a bunch of post-season pre-workout analyses of players is I think a great basis for deciding if a player has the right intangibles and performance history to succeed. To that end, the Sporting News and a couple other online publications detailed some of their best picks and why others are extremely risky.

 

I really think it comes down to 3 questions and their corollaries:

1. Did you have solid production in school? If not, why not?

2. Can you compete athletically with NFL caliber competition? This is where workouts allow you to compare kids from schools that don't have top-flight competition

3. Do you have the instincts and smarts to play your position? Are you competitive?

 

CB: With respect to cornerbacks, consensus was that Rogers-Cromartie looked like an average player against mediocre competition on game tape. His rise up the charts coincided with his Senior bowl practices and his workout numbers. Buyer beware. McKelvin and Jenkins seem like more complete and tested players at this position.

 

DE: While I wouldn't be disappinted in the selection of the 250lb Harvey (the first choice in this poll), he really would have to put on 15-20 pounds to be effective at this level since I don't see him as on OLB. Frankly, Calais, the 6-8 defensive end fom Miami has received comparisons to Julius Peppers. If you buy into the idea that the inept offense at UM this past year affected the play of their D, he may also be worth a look as a potential star at this position

 

WR: If it comes down to it, I'd rather take Kelly - who has far better hands and is a better blocker than Sweed (who has off-the-field issues and his own wrist injury to make me think he's red flagged on our board). Thomas, from MSU, seems to have a great blend of breakaway speed and size and production - albeit for just 1 year given MSU's coaching flubs the last few years - that I think the Bills consider him if they have doubts about Kelly's knees.

 

Harvey has already bulked up to 277 and is showing he can maintain the speed and quickness.

[Steely Dan]

FWIW, looking at a bunch of post-season pre-workout analyses of players is I think a great basis for deciding if a player has the right intangibles and performance history to succeed. To that end, the Sporting News and a couple other online publications detailed some of their best picks and why others are extremely risky.

 

I really think it comes down to 3 questions and their corollaries:

1. Did you have solid production in school? If not, why not?

2. Can you compete athletically with NFL caliber competition? This is where workouts allow you to compare kids from schools that don't have top-flight competition

3. Do you have the instincts and smarts to play your position? Are you competitive?

 

CB: With respect to cornerbacks, consensus was that Rogers-Cromartie looked like an average player against mediocre competition on game tape. His rise up the charts coincided with his Senior bowl practices and his workout numbers. Buyer beware. McKelvin and Jenkins seem like more complete and tested players at this position.

 

DE: While I wouldn't be disappinted in the selection of the 250lb Harvey (the first choice in this poll), he really would have to put on 15-20 pounds to be effective at this level since I don't see him as on OLB. Frankly, Calais, the 6-8 defensive end fom Miami has received comparisons to Julius Peppers. If you buy into the idea that the inept offense at UM this past year affected the play of their D, he may also be worth a look as a potential star at this position

 

WR: If it comes down to it, I'd rather take Kelly - who has far better hands and is a better blocker than Sweed (who has off-the-field issues and his own wrist injury to make me think he's red flagged on our board). Thomas, from MSU, seems to have a great blend of breakaway speed and size and production - albeit for just 1 year given MSU's coaching flubs the last few years - that I think the Bills consider him if they have doubts about Kelly's knees.

 

I haven't heard anything about off field issues with Sweed.

[Lothar]

Harvey has already bulked up to 277 and is showing he can maintain the speed and quickness.

If he has - and can still play - I stand corrected. Too many guys gain or lose weight to hit the requisite specs for the combine or pro day. Bottom line is if our personnel guys feel good about him at that weight, he seems a good choice.

[stinky finger]

Stupid move to trade JP for less than a high #2.

Not as stupid as some team actually agreeing to trade a high 2 for him.

[BuffOrange]

Why did you not include the guy that is the most probable of all to be drafted by the Bills? Malcom Kelly.

 

Kelly Ripa is more likely.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Someone needs to explain to me why we need other DE. Schobel is good and the split between Denney and Kelsay was effective 2 years ago.

[dubj04]

draft daddy has us taking DRC, but if he's gone a wouldn't mind Harvey. If we go WR I think Hardy is going to end up being the best coming out this year.

[John from Riverside]

If he has - and can still play - I stand corrected. Too many guys gain or lose weight to hit the requisite specs for the combine or pro day. Bottom line is if our personnel guys feel good about him at that weight, he seems a good choice.

 

How does this guy compare to the last number one DE we took....what was his name.....Flowers?

 

It seemed to me I heard about him bulking up before the draft as well.......

[PNW_Bills_Fan]

How does this guy compare to the last number one DE we took....what was his name.....Flowers?

 

It seemed to me I heard about him bulking up before the draft as well.......

 

 

I think they will look to trade. They may couple JP with the 11, and get a bunch of picks.

[Steely Dan]

Hardy has character issues;

 

Weaknesses: Rounds off too many cuts, doesn't set corners up by changing speeds and is an inconsistent route-runner at this point. Lacks ideal explosiveness and is going to have a harder time separating from man coverage at the NFL level. Takes too long to reach top speed, isn't going to make defenders miss in space and isn't much of a big-play threat after the catch. While has great size and flashes the ability to get into position doesn't play with enough of a mean streak and effort is inconsistent when blocking. Indiana suspended him for two games for an off-the-field incident in 2006 and character is somewhat of a concern.

[obie_wan]

How does this guy compare to the last number one DE we took....what was his name.....Flowers?

 

It seemed to me I heard about him bulking up before the draft as well.......

 

Harvey played at a very high level for a team that played in the SEC on a weekly basis and won the national Championship.

 

Flowers was a nobody from nowhere who was John Butler's parting gift to Ralph Wilson

[Brandon]

How does this guy compare to the last number one DE we took....what was his name.....Flowers?

 

It seemed to me I heard about him bulking up before the draft as well.......

 

The better question, IMO, is how he compares to the other DEs that have been drafted in R1 in the last 8-10 years.

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/de.html

 

Call me crazy, but that's one hell of a sorry group. Unless you know that you're getting an elite player, you're probably better off rolling the dice on a 2nd or 3rd rounder. There seems to be little middle ground at the position. You either get a very good/great player or you get mediocrity. Aaron Schobel, BTW, leads all 1st and 2nd round DEs selected since 2000 with 67.5 sacks.

 

The moral of this story? If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey, they'd better be absolutely sure about him. It seems any DE in R1 is basically boom or bust.

[obie_wan]

The better question, IMO, is how he compares to the other DEs that have been drafted in R1 in the last 8-10 years.

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/de.html

 

Call me crazy, but that's one hell of a sorry group. Unless you know that you're getting an elite player, you're probably better off rolling the dice on a 2nd or 3rd rounder. There seems to be little middle ground at the position. You either get a very good/great player or you get mediocrity. Aaron Schobel, BTW, leads all 1st and 2nd round DEs selected since 2000 with 67.5 sacks.

 

The moral of this story? If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey, they'd better be absolutely sure about him. It seems any DE in R1 is basically boom or bust.

 

Probably about the same expectation for WRs drafted in the 1st round.

 

Expect WRs with pre-exsiting injuries to bust even more often - no matter how tall they are.

[Brandon]

If anyone actually cares, Kiper has updated his top 25.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/melkiper/index

 

The three obvious notables:

 

Malcolm Kelly: out of the top 25

Derrick Harvey: Now 23rd.

Devin Thomas: Up to 20th.