Derrick Harvey

[In space no one can hear]

He's a reply you might be able to comprehend.

 

Don't compare two players who had very different college careers and talent levels and try to correlate the two by assuming every great player has a bad game.

 

 

I would actually say that every great player has had a bad game.

 

So again we disagree.

[seq004]

I would actually say that every great player has had a bad game.

 

So again we disagree.

Yes I agree that every great player has a bad game but that's not the disagreement but that's ok.

[Captain Hindsight]

Good DE, but why throw first round money at another DE?

 

Both of our DE's are already ridiculously overpaid, so why would we give a rotational player starters money?

 

I like him, I'm not saying he's not worthy of it, but I see no point.

Ya thats my thinking too, good player just not worth the money at one position but i wouldnt hate the pick

[bills_red]

Ya thats my thinking too, good player just not worth the money at one position but i wouldnt hate the pick

 

Did you not read my post?

 

Ryan Denney

2008: $2.3 million, 2009: $2.4 million, 2010: Free Agent

 

Aaron Schobel

2008: $1.5 million, 2009: $3.5 million, 2010: $6.025 million, 2011-2012: $6.5 million, 2013: $8.5 million, 2014: Free Agent

Probley be cut or re-work deal in 2010ish

 

Chris Kelsay

2008: $1.4 million, 2009: $3 million, 2010: $3.7 million, 2011: Free Agent

 

Last years 11th pick

$16.655 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $500,000, 2010: $760,000, 2011: $900,000, 2012: $900,000 (Voidable Year), 2013: Free Agent

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

That's kind of what worries me with Harvey. How much better is he than what the Bills have already? He's the 3rd or 4th best DE on most people's boards and posted a pretty mundane 8.5 sacks this year. I don't have the sack totals for their defense overall, but they were ranked 98th in the country this season allowing 258 yards per game. Opposing QBs completed just a shade under 60% against them and threw 19 TDs vs 11 INTs.

 

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?ye...ef&site=org

 

So was he a difference-maker in their pass D? If he was, then their pass D must be truly awful without him. That's not to say he can't play, but I have a hard time believing that his addition is going to turn this into a great defense. He didn't at Florida and the Gators are hardly lacking in talent at that level of competition. He looks like a solid 1st round DE prospect, but not a gamechanger, IMO.

 

One update: I did find the Florida team defense stats. They had 29 QB sacks as a team in 13 games.

 

http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/fbc/07stats/uf.htm

 

The stat differential between 06-07 is easily explained. When you take into account the gators had 9 different defensive starters in the 07 season, compared to the 06 season. Losing Dt's Ray McDonald/Steven Harris. As well as De- Jarvis Moss, probably accounts for the 2.5 fewer sacks he had this past year. Although he did finish with more tackles for a loss, and more tackles this year, then he did in 06. The rest of the losses losing guys like brandon siler at lb and reggie nelson in the secondary probably didn't help matters either.

 

 

As far as the breakdown of it in 06. I think the loss in talent level bears it out. They were worse on 3rd downs in 07 then they were in 06. Allowing opposing offenses to complete 33% of 3rd downs in 06, compared to 41% in 07. About 2 minutes more posession time allowed for opposing offenses. 16 more tds allowed. I imagine you'll be hard pressed to find a team that lost as many starters as the Gators did, and repeat, or exceed their efforts from the previous season.

 

When you're taking into account his overall affect on team pass defense it's not the most concrete argument to make against him. Unless you can find quarterback pressure stats, and hurried throws. Again you have to go back Are Markihe Anderson/Joe Haden/Major Wright/Tony Joiner, giving the effort that say Reggie Lewis/Ryan Smith/Reggie Nelson/Tony Joiner gave. My best assumption would be no.

 

I find it sorta difficult as to measuring what Derrick Harvey you're going to be getting. The one who absolutly destroyed Ohio state in the NC game in 06, or the one who had to work harder for the numbers he achieved this past season, with overall lesser talent. For me it comes down to our current group of ends, just not being very good. Other then Schobel, offenses just don't have to account for either Kelsay or Denney. High effort players sure. Both are poor fits for a tampa 2 defense.

 

I'd rather take a shot, at someone who can be a 8 sack a season guy and a long term option at starter after this year, then be stuck with an anemic pass rush, with 2 guys opposite schobel. Who both lack the closing burst, to apply consistent pressure. Lack the strength to bull rush linemen. Who both have poor technique, with a very limited pass rush repertoire.

 

I wouldn't put Harvey as some can't miss prospect. I think he's a more polished end, then his former teammate Jarvis Moss. Although not as fast. He holds up well against the run, has a very good closing burst. Is very quick off the snap. He has to learn to play with better technique and leverage, but he has natural ability, and quickness that can't be taught. No he's not gonna make our defense amazing, but he's simply a better prospect at a position of need. That will help us accquire the talent to be better on defense. Compared say any of the wide receivers available at 11, would make our offense. Put the choice in front of me. Potential 8-10 sacks a year pass rusher, or Complimentary wr, with a 1st rd pick. 10 times out of 10 You go pass rusher.

[Captain Hindsight]

Did you not read my post?

 

Ryan Denney

2008: $2.3 million, 2009: $2.4 million, 2010: Free Agent

 

Aaron Schobel

2008: $1.5 million, 2009: $3.5 million, 2010: $6.025 million, 2011-2012: $6.5 million, 2013: $8.5 million, 2014: Free Agent

Probley be cut or re-work deal in 2010ish

 

Chris Kelsay

2008: $1.4 million, 2009: $3 million, 2010: $3.7 million, 2011: Free Agent

 

Last years 11th pick

$16.655 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $500,000, 2010: $760,000, 2011: $900,000, 2012: $900,000 (Voidable Year), 2013: Free Agent

I think i posted before i got down that far. After seeing those numbers it might not be as bad as i thought.

 

But i have to ask does he play shobels side or kelsays? Because we need someone to take hargroves rotation

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Did you not read my post?

 

Ryan Denney

2008: $2.3 million, 2009: $2.4 million, 2010: Free Agent

 

Aaron Schobel

2008: $1.5 million, 2009: $3.5 million, 2010: $6.025 million, 2011-2012: $6.5 million, 2013: $8.5 million, 2014: Free Agent

Probley be cut or re-work deal in 2010ish

 

Chris Kelsay

2008: $1.4 million, 2009: $3 million, 2010: $3.7 million, 2011: Free Agent

 

Last years 11th pick

$16.655 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $500,000, 2010: $760,000, 2011: $900,000, 2012: $900,000 (Voidable Year), 2013: Free Agent

 

Thank you for pointing this out. Should be framed for the "Lets not draft a de cause there's too much tied up there crowd". I'm thinking regardless of whether or not we go de in the 1st. Kelsay is gone after this year. Denney gives us exactly what Kelsay does, but holds up against the run better. What we need is a real pass rusher.

[bills_red]

I think i posted before i got down that far. After seeing those numbers it might not be as bad as i thought.

 

But i have to ask does he play shobels side or kelsays? Because we need someone to take hargroves rotation

 

I think he can play LDE or RDE

[flomoe]

Good DE, but why throw first round money at another DE?

 

Both of our DE's are already ridiculously overpaid, so why would we give a rotational player starters money?

 

I like him, I'm not saying he's not worthy of it, but I see no point.

 

 

Regardless of who gets paid what, is it possible that this guy could and would be an upgrade over any of the DE's on the current roster? I say probably an upgrade over all with the possible exception of one, but after last year, he could come in and be the best DE on the team. With that as a possibility, I think that any time you can upgrade a position that is VERY hard to upgrade at all, Harvey is by far the best choice at 11, if he is still there.

[Brandon]

I only point out Florida's season defensive stats to show that Harvey's presence hasn't prevented them from struggling against the pass. He's been presented as a cure-all by some, and I think that's very misleading. He didn't mask their problems and he's not going to mask ours. Good player and *maybe* capable of 10 sacks per year, but not a true difference-maker, IMO. In his first season or two, I see him simply being used as a part of the rotation and perhaps seeing 30-40% of the total defensive snaps in that time.

[NewEra]

He should be the clear choice at 11. I hope the brass see's it the same. I pray they do.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[In space no one can hear]

I only point out Florida's season defensive stats to show that Harvey's presence hasn't prevented them from struggling against the pass. He's been presented as a cure-all by some, and I think that's very misleading. He didn't mask their problems and he's not going to mask ours. Good player and *maybe* capable of 10 sacks per year, but not a true difference-maker, IMO. In his first season or two, I see him simply being used as a part of the rotation and perhaps seeing 30-40% of the total defensive snaps in that time.

 

 

I'll even take a *maybe* 10 sacks a year, be it Harvey or someone else.

 

2007

 

Schobel 6.5 sacks

Kelsay 2.5 sacks

Denney 1.0 sacks(in 7 games)

 

Improvement is a must IMHO.

[Fewell733]

I used to be a big Harvey supporter at 11, but I just don't think it makes sense this year after the 3 FA additions to our defensive front-7 and no major additions to our offense and Price gone and Reed coming off a serious back injury. Those defensive additions, plus a healthy Denney, should vastly improve the effectiveness of our DEs and our D in general. We still need another guy to rotate in with Schobel as the pass rush specialist and Harvey would fit that bill, but I don't think at 11 it makes sense because we have bigger needs now than that. Also I have some concerns about Harvey's athleticism. His measurables are very mediocre for a highly touted defensive end.

 

You can get situational pass rushers much later in the draft at a much more reasonable price.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

I used to be a big Harvey supporter at 11, but I just don't think it makes sense this year after the 3 FA additions to our defensive front-7 and no major additions to our offense and Price gone and Reed coming off a serious back injury. Those defensive additions, plus a healthy Denney, should vastly improve the effectiveness of our DEs and our D in general. We still need another guy to rotate in with Schobel as the pass rush specialist and Harvey would fit that bill, but I don't think at 11 it makes sense because we have bigger needs now than that. Also I have some concerns about Harvey's athleticism. His measurables are very mediocre for a highly touted defensive end.

 

You can get situational pass rushers much later in the draft at a much more reasonable price.

 

I guess that's the fundamental difference. Some people want a situational pass rusher. I'm hoping for a starter. Which I think Harvey would be by at most mid season. When it again becomes plainly obvious, just how bad the de rotation or kelsay/denney is. Yeah stroud/spencer johnson/mitchell are decent additions. Hardly makes this a strong defense. Nor does it put the bills in a position, where they dont need massive upgrades. This dline needed the same kind of turnover the oline got last season. With at least 3 new starters on the line.

[Brandon]

I'll even take a *maybe* 10 sacks a year, be it Harvey or someone else.

 

2007

 

Schobel 6.5 sacks

Kelsay 2.5 sacks

Denney 1.0 sacks(in 7 games)

 

Improvement is a must IMHO.

 

That I can agree with. Improvement IS a must. However, I would be more inclined to give this group a chance to recover from a poor season, adding a middle rounder to serve as a rush specialist to bolster the position for '08. If its still a problem going into next year, that's when I would pull the trigger on a 1st rounder and go for the major overhaul.

 

Likewise, I'd also argue that its a must to improve upon the Bills 12 TD passes of a season ago by improving the putrid production at WR and TE. Given how bad this offense is, I do believe that a WR picked 11th overall will get many more opportunities to earn a starting job and make plays this year, so unless their actual draft grades are badly unbalanced, I think that a player like Sweed or Kelly would probably provide more value at least for the next season or two than Harvey.

[Fewell733]

I guess that's the fundamental difference. Some people want a situational pass rusher. I'm hoping for a starter. Which I think Harvey would be by at most mid season. When it again becomes plainly obvious, just how bad the de rotation or kelsay/denney is. Yeah stroud/spencer johnson/mitchell are decent additions. Hardly makes this a strong defense. Nor does it put the bills in a position, where they dont need massive upgrades. This dline needed the same kind of turnover the oline got last season. With at least 3 new starters on the line.

 

it would definitely be a bold move. And I wouldn't hate the move if the Bills had a solid plan to address the offense. 2 receivers and a TE need to be gotten from this draft. They have a better idea of who will be there in the 2nd. That will probably be the most important factor in how our draft shakes out.

[Arkady Renko]

Is it not possible that there is more to DEs than pass rush or that better tackle play leads to better performances from them? Is it not possible that Schobel actually deserved going to the pro bowl?

[BuffaloBilliever]

Yeah it's not like we only got 26 sacks, and can't afford to drastically improve our pass rush. Let's ignore it, and keep it well below average.

 

Could've sworn thats what we added Stroud and Johnson for... so that Kelsay and Schobel would have one on one matchups. Remember when Sammy was there? DE's had free range.

 

I usually don't argue this stuff. but this just bothers me.

 

Our needs are #2 reciever, catching tight end, Tackle depth, DE depth, LB depth, secondary depth (either free or corner), FB, and backup QB.

 

My mock may not show it, but I believe that everythings covered past QB.

 

These arguements are pointless. We're all Bills fans dying for something to talk about in the offseason. Until the draft, who knows what we'll get, and up until 3 years after the draft we'll speculate, but until the draft, lets not shoot shots at each other

[Dibs]

Yeah it's not like we only got 26 sacks, and can't afford to drastically improve our pass rush. Let's ignore it, and keep it well below average.

.....and we had 40 sacks(8th) in 2006 & 38 sacks(13th) in 2005 with pretty much the same guys. Maybe the sack total is not entirely directly related to DE talent.....maybe there are other factors involved.

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

.....and we had 40 sacks(8th) in 2006 & 38 sacks(13th) in 2005 with pretty much the same guys. Maybe the sack total is not entirely directly related to DE talent.....maybe there are other factors involved.

 

I'm sure there are. I'd also point out poor lb play. The dropoff in coverage skills especially at mlb. Say what you want but Flecther-Baker was great in that area, despite his height. Losing Clements hurt a lot more then people are willing to admit. Same goes for Ko Simpson. The corner/safety depth was attrocious. Even with those issues though. Even if Stroud turns out to be all that. I don't see Kelsay/Denney as major contributers, or valuable starters. Schobel is over 30, and our only legit pass rusher. I'd like to have some ends, who have excellent closing burst. Not just ends who can get there, if the secondary, and lb's do their job in coverage.