marck Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 As free agency comes to an end, pro day workouts are concluding and days to the 2008 NFL draft are counting down, now is a good time to have a realistic discussion of Buffalo Bills draft strategy. Let's first address the concept. The ultimate is when best player available + position of need is equal to the same prospect. In the Bills case here are the needs in order: WR, TE, CB, DE, OC, LB, S, RB, QB, K At the time of the 11th pick, I believe the best player available will be Derrick Harvey, the freakish DE from the University of Florida. After Harvey the next hot player is Illinois RB, Rashard Mendenhall. We know that Detrot wants a RB and this would be a perfect fit. The Bills need a WR and will have a shot at the top WR on the board either at 11 or 15 as neither Denver, Carolina or Chicago will spend their picks at WR. The Bears may take Mendenhall based on they also need a RB to replace "Cedric Bust Benson", making our pick potentially viable for the Lions to come and get. In my opinion, the Bills should take Harvey at 11 period. An explosive edge pass rusher makes an immediate impact and with other additions to the defense and health could make the Bills a much better defensive team in 2008. In round 2 the decision comes to selecting the best available TE or going for a 2nd level WR. Here again we have Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish who are established mid-level players and are not the answer as a complimentary WR. Our TE situation is even more desperate even with the offseason additions. The best case scenario for the Bills if somehow Notre Dame TE John Carlson falls to us in the 3rd round, but I believe he will be the 3rd TE selected behind Fred Davis and Martellus Bennett. The top WR's are Sweed, Kelly, Jackson, Thomas, Hardy and Manningham. Assuming the Bills at either 11 or 15 (assuming we can get a trade with Detroit for their 3rd round pick) will have the choice of the 1st receiver off the board we and pass and take Harvey instead lets see what the chances are of landing a WR in the 2nd round. Between our 1st round and our 2nd round let's see which teams are probable WR picks, Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Rams and Jets. This is 7 teams who could make either their 1st or 2nd round pick a WR. This would also put Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Simpson and even an Adualius Bowmen in danger of not being available. The question is, do you risk the selection of the top WR for maybe the 7th or 8th on the board and select what could be a monster DE, or lose out on Harvey (Could be very early Javon Kearse like) to select a WR who will be a compliment to Lee Evans and will not be ready to start until 2009 at the earliest. The TE selection of John Carlson would be a dream if he were to be available to the Bills in the 3rd round. Here is my dream draft (1st 3 rounds) 1ST - Derrick Harvey -DE Florida 2ND - Jordy Nelso - WR Kansas State 3RD - John Carlson -TE Notre Dame Always looking forward to reading your thought and opinions.
AKC Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 1ST - Derrick Harvey -DE Florida2ND - Jordy Nelso - WR Kansas State 3RD - John Carlson -TE Notre Dame Always looking forward to reading your thought and opinions. Carlson looked bad running at Indy, although I understand he had a later workout and improved in that bad 40 time with the claim he'd had the flu in Indy- Is he really ready to come in and block effectively at the NFL level? If he's as good a blocker as reputed, it seems likely he could get productive time on the field in 2008. On WR Jordy- does he have any realistic chance of pushing Josh Reed to the bench over the course of the season, or would he simply be a project playing in extra wideout sets?
marck Posted March 27, 2008 Author Posted March 27, 2008 Carlson ran 4.67 at his Pro Day is 6'5" and 259. Perfect TE size for the NFL. Sure he is not a down the seam threat but could be just the guy to have on 3rd and short which is exactly what the Bills need now. Plus coming out of a Charlie Weiss system his technique is probably better then most TE's coming out of college and he still will be their in the 3rd round. I remember the 2003 draft and begged for the Bills to take Whitten with the pick spent on Chris Kelsay, and look how that turned out. Jordy Nelson is a high character player with size, good speed and performance history. This is the type of guy you want as a #2. Think of him being a Joe Jerivicous or Ed McCraffry type. Carlson looked bad running at Indy, although I understand he had a later workout and improved in that bad 40 time with the claim he'd had the flu in Indy-Is he really ready to come in and block effectively at the NFL level? If he's as good a blocker as reputed, it seems likely he could get productive time on the field in 2008. On WR Jordy- does he have any realistic chance of pushing Josh Reed to the bench over the course of the season, or would he simply be a project playing in extra wideout sets?
apuszczalowski Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 Carlson looked bad running at Indy, although I understand he had a later workout and improved in that bad 40 time with the claim he'd had the flu in Indy-Is he really ready to come in and block effectively at the NFL level? If he's as good a blocker as reputed, it seems likely he could get productive time on the field in 2008. On WR Jordy- does he have any realistic chance of pushing Josh Reed to the bench over the course of the season, or would he simply be a project playing in extra wideout sets? Thats going to be the problem that many aren't thinking of. There is no one available in FA right now that would be a decent #2 right now, or an upgrade to what they had, thats a fact. The idea that the Bills only need a #2 so they can get a WR later is not going to work well for this coming season. The desperatly need a #2 WR, unless they are happy scoring 3 points at a time like last season. What they need is a guy that is better then Reed (and peerless) right now, but doesn't have to be better then Evans. they don't need a #1 WR , but they need someone who is going to be good enough to start for them and keep other teams from double teaming Lee, so they need one of the better WR's in the draft, not someone who will eventually become a #2. They need someone who is good enough to step in as a #2, and get better (possibly even become a serious threat to be a #1) Picking a DE at 11 would be nice, but a luxury at this point. Passing on a DE right now won't kill the defence, passing on one of the better WR's will seriously hurt their chances of making the playoffs this year. So unless they are working on a trade for a #2 right now before the draft, I would say its almost 95% guaranteed they will go with a WR/TE
AKC Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 Carlson ran 4.67 at his Pro Day is 6'5" and 259. Perfect TE size for the NFL. Sure he is not a down the seam threat but could be just the guy to have on 3rd and short which is exactly what the Bills need now. Plus coming out of a Charlie Weiss system his technique is probably better then most TE's coming out of college and he still will be their in the 3rd round. I remember the 2003 draft and begged for the Bills to take Whitten with the pick spent on Chris Kelsay, and look how that turned out. Jordy Nelson is a high character player with size, good speed and performance history. This is the type of guy you want as a #2. Think of him being a Joe Jerivicous or Ed McCraffry type. What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? My question about Nelson is really limited to whether he'll be on the field in our regular offense much in 2008- do you think he can put Reed on the bench? So unless they are working on a trade for a #2 right now before the draft, I would say its almost 95% guaranteed they will go with a WR/TE Give me some insight into how you would handle this scenario: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher?
stuckincincy Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? Different QB?
Pete Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? My question about Nelson is really limited to whether he'll be on the field in our regular offense much in 2008- do you think he can put Reed on the bench? What would you do if you were in the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stayed in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we pick a player we know we're reaching for, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher? I think the biggest reason for the drop in production was a subpar Notre Dame team with lackluster QB play
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 So, we have a great DE in Schobel, and two other good DE's in Kelsay and Denney, with Neill and an additional depth player in late FA or draft, but we should take a DE first overall? If we want to win soon, we need to fill all the holes that are needed. What we NEED, is a #2 Wide Reciever. We have good DE's, a Good TE, and two solid Corners. Going by the DraftTek needs thing, this is what I see. QB, HB - 9 FB - 3 TE - 2 WR - 1 OL - 8 DE, DT, LB- 9 DLine Rotational - 6 CB - 4 S - 7 K, P - 9 LS - 5 This, is of course, based on starters. We obviously need depth at LB, O-Line and QB (On a serious note folks, Gibran Hamdan just won't cut it). Going for anything other than WR just won't make sense to me. I've said it a thousand times, the reason you have a high draft pick is to get the best player that you need. Just because Mike Mayock says that Mendenhall is the best at 11 doesn't mean that we should get him. Harvey may be a freakish athlete, but that won't put points on the board if Lee's getting double teamed and Robert Royal is dropping clutch passes. There's no point in me arguing this, I'm just waiting for the draft, but it bothers me when people say we need things that the front office doesn't see as a threat, and I just need some valid points rather than just hearing "we'll take him because he's good". I'm always open to change my mind, so if I can get a legitimate, well thought out answer, I'll gladly think it over.
DreamOnDan Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 As free agency comes to an end, pro day workouts are concluding and days to the 2008 NFL draft are counting down, now is a good time to have a realistic discussion of Buffalo Bills draft strategy. Let's first address the concept. The ultimate is when best player available + position of need is equal to the same prospect. In the Bills case here are the needs in order: WR, TE, CB, DE, OC, LB, S, RB, QB, K Here is my dream draft (1st 3 rounds) 1ST - Derrick Harvey -DE Florida 2ND - Jordy Nelso - WR Kansas State 3RD - John Carlson -TE Notre Dame Always looking forward to reading your thought and opinions. I would be on board with the drafting of Harvey in rd1 but I'd rather have a few different guys. Harvey is good, if not great. He is not a freak, it would be nice to have a freak to come in and dominate his position for a long time. Guys that in my opinion deserve to be a top ten draft pick. Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, James Hardy, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Darren McFadden, Jake Long, Chris Long, Quentin Groves, Mike Jenkins. I honestly think that Hardy has put his character issues behind him and is going to be the best wr in the NFL at some point in his career. He does a weekly spot on sirius radio. Very smart man. Very humble. To me, he is clearly the secret of this draft. My dream draft: trade down with Detroit give them Losman, 5th rd pick, and our 1st for their 1st and 2nd. 15 James hardy http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1246 42 Fred Davis http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1227 46 Lawrence Jackson http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1224 73 Mike Pollack http://walterfootball.com/draft2008_3.php 111 Josh Johnson http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile...rospect_ID=1283 after that I'd like to fill the special teams holes whith best player avialable at lb, OT, fb
AKC Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 If we want to win soon, we need to fill all the holes that are needed. What we NEED, is a #2 Wide Reciever. We have good DE's, a Good TE, and two solid Corners. I'd be interested in your handling of the following scenario also: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher?
John from Riverside Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 My problem with all of this is: - What are we going to do for a offense? Its going to be Lee Evans and ? We have done our free agent spending almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball - Lee Evans is going to be a hard re sign if we dont get a better offense on the field......heck..he is going to be hard anyway - We dont know how good our DE's will look with the improvements in the DT interior.....maybe now that teams are not going to be able to run up the middle so easily and cant just step up into the pocket on every play the DE's will actualy be able to make plays? The other question I would like answered as I simply do not know.....is Harvey hands down a better football player at his position then any of the WR's in this draft at theirs....if someone can say yes to this then fine....lets take him. We still have plenty of cap room left and some widouts are going to available after cuts......
Brandon Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 Give me some insight into how you would handle this scenario: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher? For my part, I'd say that it depends. What are the actual grades on the WR as well as the 16 players ranked above him? If there's very little variation in the grade from player 11 to player 27, for instance, I would definitely consider it. Thinking of it in terms of rankings instead of grades can make a pick look a whole lot worse than it really is, and its part of the reason why those 'reaches' often become outstanding players.
ndirish1978 Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? The reason was because the Claussen family seems to produce monster HS prospects who absolutely suck in college. I submit ND's record and my escalating alcohol consumption last year as proof.
apuszczalowski Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 Give me some insight into how you would handle this scenario: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher? Well, I highly doubt that the Bills have 26 players (the 16 player + the 10 already picked) rated above all the WR's in the draft, so you are dealing with a very hypothetical situation, so in that case my answer would have to be very hypothetical. Then of course it would have to depend on the grade of the players that remain and the needs they fill on the Bills roster. Is one of those 16 players a TE? How about a CB? An OC? A LB? How does the rest of their draft board grade out? Are their grades based on quality of player and team needs? In the real world, if the choice is between a DE who is going to be a rotational player this season, or one of the top WR's in the draft at #11, I would go with a WR if they are a better player then Reed right now, and could be a threat as a #2
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 I'd be interested in your handling of the following scenario also: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher? If I'm handling that situation, and there are honestly 16 more players above Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed, then I look at it this way. Any DE's above 16: Why shell out more ridiculous money to an unproven DE when we already have the most amount of money already invested in our DEs? Any OT's above 16: We have a perennial Pro Bowl LT and a recent signing of great $ to Langston Walker, so there goes that idea out with window. G's, C's, FB's, TE's, S's, K's, P's, all shouldn't be that high on the draft board. Any LB higher, I wouldn't take. The only worthy one seems to be Rivers, and if we have to take a LB it should be in later rounds. DT is a slim possibility, if Ellis happens to fall that far. Other than that I don't see us taking one until later to fill a rotational need. The only position I could fill at 11 other than WR would be Corner, for the sole fact that we could use a bonafide #1 on the team, rather than two really good #2's. I'd hand in my card with Mr. Malcolm Kelly's name on it.
Astrobot Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 So, we have a great DE in Schobel, and two other good DE's in Kelsay and Denney, with Neill and an additional depth player in late FA or draft, but we should take a DE first overall? If we want to win soon, we need to fill all the holes that are needed. What we NEED, is a #2 Wide Reciever. We have good DE's, a Good TE, and two solid Corners. Going by the DraftTek needs thing, this is what I see. QB, HB - 9 FB - 3 TE - 2 WR - 1 OL - 8 DE, DT, LB- 9 DLine Rotational - 6 CB - 4 S - 7 K, P - 9 LS - 5 This, is of course, based on starters. We obviously need depth at LB, O-Line and QB (On a serious note folks, Gibran Hamdan just won't cut it). Going for anything other than WR just won't make sense to me. I've said it a thousand times, the reason you have a high draft pick is to get the best player that you need. Just because Mike Mayock says that Mendenhall is the best at 11 doesn't mean that we should get him. Harvey may be a freakish athlete, but that won't put points on the board if Lee's getting double teamed and Robert Royal is dropping clutch passes. There's no point in me arguing this, I'm just waiting for the draft, but it bothers me when people say we need things that the front office doesn't see as a threat, and I just need some valid points rather than just hearing "we'll take him because he's good". I'm always open to change my mind, so if I can get a legitimate, well thought out answer, I'll gladly think it over. I can always change these DraftTek priorities for the Bills if the majority thinks they'd like to. With the DraftTek Team Priorities the way they are now, the first 4 picks right now are WR Malcolm Kelly and TE Fred Davis, OC Steve Justice, and WR Paul Hubbard (the draft class's best downfield blocker, IMHO). Lemme know if you'd like to try finagling with the numbers that are there: http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2008.html Astro Bills Correspondent, DraftTek
BillsD#1in2008 Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 ok that draft would suck JORDY NELSON SUCKS and that would be a reach in the 2nd round wow man that draft would suck
DreamOnDan Posted March 27, 2008 Posted March 27, 2008 ok that draft would suck JORDY NELSON SUCKS and that would be a reach in the 2nd round wow man that draft would suck lol
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 28, 2008 Posted March 28, 2008 I can always change these DraftTek priorities for the Bills if the majority thinks they'd like to. With the DraftTek Team Priorities the way they are now, the first 4 picks right now are WR Malcolm Kelly and TE Fred Davis, OC Steve Justice, and WR Paul Hubbard (the draft class's best downfield blocker, IMHO). Lemme know if you'd like to try finagling with the numbers that are there:http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2008.html Astro Bills Correspondent, DraftTek Lol I always go by the Drafttek stuff, and I think you're doing a damn good job with it, no need for me to get in the way of that haha.
Spiderweb Posted March 28, 2008 Posted March 28, 2008 What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? The reason was because the Claussen family seems to produce monster HS prospects who absolutely suck in college. I submit ND's record and my escalating alcohol consumption last year as proof. Hard to believe the question was even asked.....
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