Tipster19 Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 I think that there could be three schools of thought on this matter. 1. That making a WR a priority in the first rd will increase our percentage of success in finding a bonafide #2 WR. 2. That drafting a WR in the first rd is risky based on if he doesn't fulfill his potential or value. 3. That no matter where you draft a WR it still takes time to develope the bulk of the prospects before they contribute in a significant way. I'm thinking that #3 is the most applicable. There is always the exception to the rule either way but the teams that are most solidified are the ones who have the luxury of time to develope their young prospects. I don't believe that Buffalo is quite to the point of having the priviledge of using a top pick on a player/position that has either a high risk success to failure ratio or the margin for a time consuming developement process. The Bills are best served to continue to fortify both sides of the lines and other positions. Running a ball control offense with a good ground game and well managed possessions will bear the most fruit. We have a premiere RB, a solid WR and supporting cast and a OL that has started to jell. I believe that if a #2 WR were crucial than it would have been fulfilled in free agency. This didn't happen, most likely due to the economics. Why would this principle be abandoned now in the draft? I want to go on record as saying that a WR or two and a valid TE is very important to our young offense's growth, it's not the end all that some believe. A good percentage of fans are clamoring for the sexy pick but the overall shape of our roster should be top priority. It wasn't too long ago that we were all squawking for playmakers and bulldozers for our DL and OL. While we have made tremendous strides in these two areas in the last year or so, we are still not there. I still have two questions rolling around in my head. First, although we did address the DL in this year's off season let's keep it in our perspective that Stroud is a great addition but he's approaching 30, came off a big surgery and even if this is all overcomed, no one is immune to injuries. Spencer Johnson just might be a real pleasant find but before we signed him I never heard of him, and though I'm not any kind of an expert, I'm not quite ready to drink the Kool-Aid of belief that these two players are going to deliver us to the promised land, at least just not yet. The other question I've got is well I was feeling quite smitten with our OL as the year progessed, I was brought crashing down to earth when T Jason Peters was injured. There was a huge drop off immediately, not just in his replacement but more importantly in the whole OL's continuity. Where was our depth? All I want for this team, franchise and community is success with the Bills' return to glory and post season and not just for a year or two. It's about foundation and we just started building a solid one. We are so close to really solidifying ours, let's not stop one step too short. A good draft here could provide us success and continuity for years to come. I've spoke too much. Here's the last 5 past drafts. I think that 5 years is a proper barometer to the current times and trends of what is going on in the league. Judge for yourselves. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1
BillnutinHouston Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 If the Bills' brain trust shares your view that #3 is the most applicable, they had a funny way of showing it - going defense in the FA period and just goofing around with the WR's they brought in.
Tipster19 Posted March 24, 2008 Author Posted March 24, 2008 If the Bills' brain trust shares your view that #3 is the most applicable, they had a funny way of showing it - going defense in the FA period and just goofing around with the WR's they brought in. Quite the contrary. Going and building the rest of the roster would only validate this thought all the more. Obviously the Bills' FO didn't determine that the available players in free agency were the solution.
Lofton80 Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Basically, if we expect a first round pick to come in and be a #1 receiver, it is rare that this happens. We need a contributor particularly on third down and in the red zone. There are many examples of rookie receivers who are strong contributors. I can think of Plexico Burress being that kind of receiver as a rookie in Pittsburgh, Steve Smith for the Giants last year and Greg Jennings with the Packers, Chris Chambers of Miami, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston. I believe a #2 wasn't addressed in free agency due to the pricey market that developed for some mediocre talent at the position. I am all for fortifying either side of the line early but a WR/TE is surely on the radar in the first three picks.
Tipster19 Posted March 24, 2008 Author Posted March 24, 2008 Basically, if we expect a first round pick to come in and be a #1 receiver, it is rare that this happens. We need a contributor particularly on third down and in the red zone. There are many examples of rookie receivers who are strong contributors. I can think of Plexico Burress being that kind of receiver as a rookie in Pittsburgh, Steve Smith for the Giants last year and Greg Jennings with the Packers, Chris Chambers of Miami, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston. I believe a #2 wasn't addressed in free agency due to the pricey market that developed for some mediocre talent at the position. I am all for fortifying either side of the line early but a WR/TE is surely on the radar in the first three picks. Only one out of the four WRs that you mentioned was a 1st rd pick but I do agree that the WR position does need to be addressed no later than the 3rd rd. I challenge everybody to either make a mental list, or even write them down, of the upper echelon WRs in the game today and look them up with the links that I provided and see where they were drafted. I think that you may be in for a surprise.
MattM Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Basically, if we expect a first round pick to come in and be a #1 receiver, it is rare that this happens. We need a contributor particularly on third down and in the red zone. There are many examples of rookie receivers who are strong contributors. I can think of Plexico Burress being that kind of receiver as a rookie in Pittsburgh, Steve Smith for the Giants last year and Greg Jennings with the Packers, Chris Chambers of Miami, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston. I believe a #2 wasn't addressed in free agency due to the pricey market that developed for some mediocre talent at the position. I am all for fortifying either side of the line early but a WR/TE is surely on the radar in the first three picks. Wasn't Burress' rookie year somewhat of a bust? 22 catches for 273 yards and 0 TDs, and he was a Top 10 pick, if I recall correctly. How is that a good rookie year by any stretch?
Adam Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 As I have said, if our first two picks are WR James Hardy and DT Kentwan Balmer, I would be ecstatic. Hardy could be a #2 this year if he wins the spot, or start off in the slot. He eventually could become the #1, which would allow Evans to just focus on doing what he is best at. Balmer showed a lot of improvement when Butch Davis got to NC. A rotation of Stroud, McCargo, Balmer and Johnson could be pretty dang good. Again, the WR's may not do much this year, but thats fine- let 'em develop- unless you want a mediocre team that goes 7-8 or bombs in the first round of the playoffs. If you want a good team, then act like it! WR's I like later on (and if they don't run EXCELLENT routes, forget it): Devin Thomas (Michigan State), Adaries Bowman (Oklahoma State), Jerome Simpson (Coastal Carolina), Kevin Robinson (Utah State) and Todd Blythe (Iowa State) I also like Owen Schmitt from West Virginia at FB Not too high on any tight ends....maybe a UFA to be dug up? OL: Brandon Albert (Virginia), Eric Young (Tennessee), Gosder Cherilus (Boston College), Kirk Barton (Ohio State) DL: Johnny Dingle and Kellen Dykes (West Virginia), Joe Clermond (Pittsburgh), Lionel Dotson (Arizona)
ax4782 Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 I think that there could be three schools of thought on this matter. 1. That making a WR a priority in the first rd will increase our percentage of success in finding a bonafide #2 WR. 2. That drafting a WR in the first rd is risky based on if he doesn't fulfill his potential or value. 3. That no matter where you draft a WR it still takes time to develope the bulk of the prospects before they contribute in a significant way. I'm thinking that #3 is the most applicable. There is always the exception to the rule either way but the teams that are most solidified are the ones who have the luxury of time to develope their young prospects. I don't believe that Buffalo is quite to the point of having the priviledge of using a top pick on a player/position that has either a high risk success to failure ratio or the margin for a time consuming developement process. The Bills are best served to continue to fortify both sides of the lines and other positions. Running a ball control offense with a good ground game and well managed possessions will bear the most fruit. We have a premiere RB, a solid WR and supporting cast and a OL that has started to jell. I believe that if a #2 WR were crucial than it would have been fulfilled in free agency. This didn't happen, most likely due to the economics. Why would this principle be abandoned now in the draft? I want to go on record as saying that a WR or two and a valid TE is very important to our young offense's growth, it's not the end all that some believe. A good percentage of fans are clamoring for the sexy pick but the overall shape of our roster should be top priority. It wasn't too long ago that we were all squawking for playmakers and bulldozers for our DL and OL. While we have made tremendous strides in these two areas in the last year or so, we are still not there. I still have two questions rolling around in my head. First, although we did address the DL in this year's off season let's keep it in our perspective that Stroud is a great addition but he's approaching 30, came off a big surgery and even if this is all overcomed, no one is immune to injuries. Spencer Johnson just be a real pleasant find but before we signed him I never heard of him, and though I'm not any kind of an expert, I'm not quite ready to drink the Kool-Aid of belief that these two players are going to deliver us to the promised land, at least just not yet. The other question I've got is well I was feeling quite smitten with our OL as the year progessed, I was brought crashing down to earth when T Jason Peters was injured. There was a huge drop off immediately, not just in his replacement but more importantly in the whole OL's continuity. Where was our depth? All I want for this team, franchise and community is success with the Bills' return to glory and post season and not just for a year or two. It's about foundation and we just started building a solid one. We are so close to really solidifying ours, let's not stop one step too short. A good draft here could provide us success and continuity for years to come. I've spoke too much. Here's the last 5 past drafts. I think that 5 years is a proper barometer to the current times and trends of what is going on in the league. Judge for yourselves. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...mp;round=round1 If you want an offense that continues to RUN RUN PASS and be unsuccessful at converting third downs because they can't do anything with play number three, then we should follow your theory. I really hate these continual posts on how Buffalo should take DL or OL in the first round. That would be the absolute DUMBEST thing we could do this year. I don't care if you take some prospects in later rounds, say four and up. But in the first? With all the other needs we have on offense? C'mon. Buffalo needs to draft a WR or TE in the first two rounds, preferably both, one in each round. We don't need the rookie WR to come in and catch 95 passes next year. We need him to be a legitimate 45-50 and 700 yd guy who can take some pressure off Evans and allow Reed to play the position where he excels and can help the offense: the slot. Then you mix in Parrish and a pass catching TE and that not only opens up the passing game, but helps the run. When you have an offense that is actually a threat in the passing game, that allows you to run a ball control offense much more effectively. Also, the Bills had one of the better O-Lines in the league last year. One of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal offense. The D-Line sucked and the FO addressed that immediately. We now have three guys who could be legitimate starters at DT at any given time. We don't need to get another high paid guy at the position right now. At DE you already have over 70 mil tied up in Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney. No way they sink another 20 mil into a position that isn't great but is above average. Likely they will add another FA like Jason Hall for depth and be done with it. We have actual NEEDS on offense that need an infusion of young talent to help this franchise. I don't care that the WR we draft in the 1st isn't going to be GREAT for 2 years. I just want him to come in and be AVERAGE or GOOD. That would be better than what we've had at #2 for the last three years. And a TE who can actually catch the ball might actually mean the offense can score more points than the defense on any given Sunday. Just stop the line-drafting madness.
Tcali Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 If you want an offense that continues to RUN RUN PASS and be unsuccessful at converting third downs because they can't do anything with play number three, then we should follow your theory. I really hate these continual posts on how Buffalo should take DL or OL in the first round. That would be the absolute DUMBEST thing we could do this year. I don't care if you take some prospects in later rounds, say four and up. But in the first? With all the other needs we have on offense? C'mon. Buffalo needs to draft a WR or TE in the first two rounds, preferably both, one in each round. We don't need the rookie WR to come in and catch 95 passes next year. We need him to be a legitimate 45-50 and 700 yd guy who can take some pressure off Evans and allow Reed to play the position where he excels and can help the offense: the slot. Then you mix in Parrish and a pass catching TE and that not only opens up the passing game, but helps the run. When you have an offense that is actually a threat in the passing game, that allows you to run a ball control offense much more effectively. Also, the Bills had one of the better O-Lines in the league last year. One of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal offense. The D-Line sucked and the FO addressed that immediately. We now have three guys who could be legitimate starters at DT at any given time. We don't need to get another high paid guy at the position right now. At DE you already have over 70 mil tied up in Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney. No way they sink another 20 mil into a position that isn't great but is above average. Likely they will add another FA like Jason Hall for depth and be done with it. We have actual NEEDS on offense that need an infusion of young talent to help this franchise. I don't care that the WR we draft in the 1st isn't going to be GREAT for 2 years. I just want him to come in and be AVERAGE or GOOD. That would be better than what we've had at #2 for the last three years. And a TE who can actually catch the ball might actually mean the offense can score more points than the defense on any given Sunday. Just stop the line-drafting madness. ?????????????????????? N E W Y O R K Giants. 30 th D. O line which cant run block. And you want to blow the 11th pick on a WR?? Go back to football school.
Dwight Drane Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 You seem to miss the point that the Bills will be taking the 1st WR off the board in all probability. When you look at it that way the past 5 years would yield you: Calvin Johnson - Could be your #2 right now Santonio Holmes- Would be your #2 right now Bralon Edwards-Would be your #1 Larry Fitzgerald-Would be your #1 Charles Rogers- Miss All of these guys minus Rogers contributed in major ways by their 2nd year. By their 3rd year, 2 of 3 are all pros and it looks as if the other 2 aren't far off. We have an 80% chance to draft an impact player if we go WR at pick #11 and he is the best of the crop. If you'd like to go back further, feel free.
Pete Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 2007 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 2 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech Detroit Lions 1 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Ohio State Miami Dolphins 1 23 Dwayne Bowe Louisiana State Kansas City Chiefs 1 27 Robert Meachem Tennessee New Orleans Saints 1 30 Craig Davis Louisiana State San Diego Chargers 1 32 Anthony Gonzalez Ohio State Indianapolis Colts 2 44 Sidney Rice South Carolina Minnesota Vikings 2 45 Dwayne Jarrett USC Carolina Panthers 2 51 Steve Smith USC New York Giants 3 73 Jacoby Jones Lane Houston Texans 3 74 Yamon Figurs Kansas State Baltimore Ravens 3 75 Laurent Robinson Illinois State Atlanta Falcons 3 76 Jason Hill Washington State San Francisco 49ers 3 78 James Jones San Jose State Green Bay Packers 3 79 Mike Walker Central Florida Jacksonville Jaguars 3 80 Paul Williams Fresno State Tennessee Titans 3 99 Johnnie Lee Higgins Texas-El Paso Oakland Raiders 4 103 Isaiah Stanback Washington Dallas Cowboys 4 118 Ryne Robinson Miami (Ohio) Carolina Panthers 4 128 Chris Davis Florida State Tennessee Titans 5 142 Steve Breaston Michigan Arizona Cardinals 5 146 Aundrae Allison East Carolina Minnesota Vikings 5 157 David Clowney Virginia Tech Green Bay Packers 5 169 Roy Hall Ohio State Indianapolis Colts 5 172 Legedu Naanee Boise State San Diego Chargers 6 188 Joel Filani Texas Tech Tennessee Titans 6 197 Courtney Taylor Auburn Seattle Seahawks 6 210 Jordan Kent Oregon Seattle Seahawks 7 227 Dallas Baker Florida Pittsburgh Steelers 7 229 John Broussard San Jose State Jacksonville Jaguars 7 233 Chandler Williams Florida International Minnesota Vikings 7 234 Syndric Steptoe Arizona Cleveland Browns 7 235 Chansi Stuckey Clemson New York Jets 7 249 Derek Stanley Wis.-Whitewater St. Louis Rams 7 254 Johnathan Holland Louisiana Tech Oakland Raiders 2006 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 25 Santonio Holmes Ohio State Pittsburgh Steelers 2 36 Chad Jackson Florida New England Patriots 2 44 Sinorice Moss Miami (Fla.) New York Giants 2 52 Greg Jennings Western Michigan Green Bay Packers 3 78 Travis Wilson Oklahoma Cleveland Browns 3 82 Derek Hagan Arizona State Miami Dolphins 3 84 Brandon Williams Wisconsin San Francisco 49ers 3 90 Maurice Stovall Notre Dame Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 95 Willie Reid Florida State Pittsburgh Steelers 4 103 Brad Smith Missouri New York Jets 4 104 Cory Rodgers Texas Christian Green Bay Packers 4 109 Jason Avant Michigan Philadelphia Eagles 4 111 Demetrius Williams Oregon Baltimore Ravens 4 119 Brandon Marshall Central Florida Denver Broncos 4 125 Skyler Green Louisiana State Dallas Cowboys 4 130 Domenik Hixon Akron Denver Broncos 5 144 Marques Hagans Virginia St. Louis Rams 5 147 Jeremy Bloom Colorado Philadelphia Eagles 6 171 Mike Hass Oregon State New Orleans Saints 6 172 Jonathan Orr Wisconsin Tennessee Titans 6 184 Adam Jennings Fresno State Atlanta Falcons 6 190 Jeff Webb San Diego State Kansas City Chiefs 6 193 Reggie McNeal Texas A&M Cincinnati Bengals 7 218 Todd Watkins Brigham Young Arizona Cardinals 7 231 Bennie Brazell Louisiana State Cincinnati Bengals 7 233 Devin Aromashodu Auburn Miami Dolphins 7 249 Ben Obomanu Auburn Seattle Seahawks 7 251 David Anderson Colorado State Houston Texans 7 252 Marques Colston Hofstra New Orleans Saints 7 255 Kevin McMahan Maine Oakland Raiders 2005 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 3 Braylon Edwards Michigan Cleveland Browns 1 7 Troy Williamson South Carolina Minnesota Vikings 1 10 Mike Williams USC Detroit Lions 1 21 Matt Jones Arkansas Jacksonville Jaguars 1 22 Mark Clayton Oklahoma Baltimore Ravens 1 27 Roddy White Alabama-Birmingham Atlanta Falcons 2 35 Reggie Brown Georgia Philadelphia Eagles 2 39 Mark Bradley Oklahoma Chicago Bears 2 55 Roscoe Parrish Miami (Fla.) Buffalo Bills 2 58 Terrence Murphy Texas A&M Green Bay Packers 2 61 Vincent Jackson Northern Colorado San Diego Chargers 3 68 Courtney Roby Indiana Tennessee Titans 3 83 Chris Henry West Virginia Cincinnati Bengals 3 96 Brandon Jones Oklahoma Tennessee Titans 4 114 Jerome Mathis Hampton Houston Texans 4 116 Craphonso Thorpe Florida State Kansas City Chiefs 4 118 Chase Lyman California New Orleans Saints 4 131 Fred Gibson Georgia Pittsburgh Steelers 4 136 Roydell Williams Tulane Tennessee Titans 5 140 Airese Currie Clemson Chicago Bears 5 174 Rasheed Marshall West Virginia San Francisco 49ers 6 185 Chad Owens Hawaii Jacksonville Jaguars 6 190 Tab Perry UCLA Cincinnati Bengals 6 192 Dante Ridgeway Ball State St. Louis Rams 6 195 Craig Bragg UCLA Green Bay Packers 7 223 Marcus Maxwell Oregon San Francisco 49ers 7 225 Paris Warren Utah Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 226 LeRon McCoy Indiana (PA) Arizona Cardinals 7 240 Harry Williams Tuskegee New York Jets 7 253 J.R. Russell Louisville Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2004 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 3 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh Arizona Cardinals 1 7 Roy Williams Texas Detroit Lions 1 9 Reggie Williams Washington Jacksonville Jaguars 1 13 Lee Evans Wisconsin Buffalo Bills 1 15 Michael Clayton Louisiana State Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 29 Michael Jenkins Ohio State Atlanta Falcons 1 31 Rashaun Woods Oklahoma State San Francisco 49ers 2 50 Devery Henderson Louisiana State New Orleans Saints 2 54 Darius Watts Marshall Denver Broncos 2 62 Keary Colbert USC Carolina Panthers 3 77 Derrick Hamilton Clemson San Francisco 49ers 3 78 Bernard Berrian Fresno State Chicago Bears 3 82 Devard Darling Washington State Baltimore Ravens 4 99 Carlos Francis Texas Tech Oakland Raiders 4 105 Samie Parker Oregon Kansas City Chiefs 4 108 Jerricho Cotchery North Carolina State New York Jets 4 120 Ernest Wilford Virginia Tech Jacksonville Jaguars 5 134 Johnnie Morant Syracuse Oakland Raiders 5 149 Maurice Mann Nevada-Reno Cincinnati Bengals 5 157 D.J. Hackett Colorado Seattle Seahawks 5 163 Drew Carter Ohio State Carolina Panthers 5 164 P.K. Sam Florida State New England Patriots 6 168 Jamaar Taylor Texas A&M New York Giants 6 171 Triandos Luke Alabama Denver Broncos 6 195 Jeris McIntyre Auburn Kansas City Chiefs 6 199 Clarence Moore Northern Arizona Baltimore Ravens 7 206 Mark Jones Tennessee Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 211 Sloan Thomas Texas Houston Texans 7 214 Jonathan Smith Georgia Tech Buffalo Bills 7 216 Patrick Crayton Northwestern Oklahoma State Dallas Cowboys 7 244 Derek Abney Kentucky Baltimore Ravens 2003 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 2 Charles Rogers Michigan State Detroit Lions 1 3 Andre Johnson Miami (Fla.) Houston Texans 1 17 Bryant Johnson Penn State Arizona Cardinals 2 44 Taylor Jacobs Florida Washington Redskins 2 45 Bethel Johnson Texas A&M New England Patriots 2 54 Anquan Boldin Florida State Arizona Cardinals 2 60 Tyrone Calico Middle Tennessee State Tennessee Titans 3 65 Kelley Washington Tennessee Cincinnati Bengals 3 71 Nate Burleson Nevada-Reno Minnesota Vikings 3 74 Kevin Curtis Utah State St. Louis Rams 3 95 Billy McMullen Virginia Philadelphia Eagles 4 106 Shaun McDonald Arizona State St. Louis Rams 4 124 Brandon Lloyd Illinois San Francisco 49ers 4 127 Sam Aiken North Carolina Buffalo Bills 5 139 Bobby Wade Arizona Chicago Bears 5 143 Justin Gage Missouri Chicago Bears 5 158 Adrian Madise Texas Christian Denver Broncos 5 167 Doug Gabriel Central Florida Oakland Raiders 5 169 J.R. Tolver San Diego State Miami Dolphins 6 175 David Kircus Grand Valley State Detroit Lions 6 186 Zuriel Smith Hampton Dallas Cowboys 6 196 LaTarence Dunbar Texas Christian Atlanta Falcons 6 197 Arnaz Battle Notre Dame San Francisco 49ers 6 199 Willie Ponder Southeast Missouri State New York Giants 6 211 David Tyree Syracuse New York Giants 7 221 Keenan Howry Oregon Minnesota Vikings 7 224 Taco Wallace Kansas State Seattle Seahawks 7 226 Walter Young Illinois Carolina Panthers 7 231 Talman Gardner Florida State New Orleans Saints 7 255 Kevin Walter Eastern Michigan New York Giants 7 256 Carl Ford Toledo Green Bay Packers 7 262 Ryan Hoag Gustavus Adolphus Oakland Raiders 2002 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 13 Donte' Stallworth Tennessee New Orleans Saints 1 19 Ashley Lelie Hawaii Denver Broncos 1 20 Javon Walker Florida State Green Bay Packers 2 33 Jabar Gaffney Florida Houston Texans 2 36 Josh Reed Louisiana State Buffalo Bills 2 46 Tim Carter Auburn New York Giants 2 47 Andre Davis Virginia Tech Cleveland Browns 2 48 Reche Caldwell Florida San Diego Chargers 2 62 Antwaan Randle El Indiana Pittsburgh Steelers 2 63 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh Dallas Cowboys 2 65 Deion Branch Louisville New England Patriots 3 86 Marquise Walker Michigan Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 87 Cliff Russell Utah Washington Redskins 3 95 Eric Crouch Nebraska St. Louis Rams 4 123 Ron Johnson Minnesota Baltimore Ravens 5 142 Terry Charles Portland State San Diego Chargers 5 144 Herb Haygood Michigan State Denver Broncos 5 149 Jason McAddley Alabama Arizona Cardinals 5 151 Jake Schifino Akron Tennessee Titans 5 162 Freddie Milons Alabama Philadelphia Eagles 5 170 Sam Simmons Northwestern Miami Dolphins 6 184 Kahlil Hill Iowa Atlanta Falcons 6 195 Lamont Brightful Eastern Washington Baltimore Ravens 6 202 Lee Mays Texas-El Paso Pittsburgh Steelers 6 203 Jamin Elliott Delaware Chicago Bears 6 206 Javin Hunter Notre Dame Baltimore Ravens 7 222 Kendall Newson Middle Tennessee State Jacksonville Jaguars 7 225 Darrell Hill Northern Illinois Tennessee Titans 7 226 Daryl Jones Miami (Fla.) New York Giants 7 253 David Givens Notre Dame New England Patriots 2001 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 8 David Terrell Michigan Chicago Bears 1 9 Koren Robinson North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks 1 15 Rod Gardner Clemson Washington Redskins 1 16 Santana Moss Miami (Fla.) New York Jets 1 25 Freddie Mitchell UCLA Philadelphia Eagles 1 30 Reggie Wayne Miami (Fla.) Indianapolis Colts 2 33 Quincy Morgan Kansas State Cleveland Browns 2 36 Chad Johnson Oregon State Cincinnati Bengals 2 41 Robert Ferguson Texas A&M Green Bay Packers 2 52 Chris Chambers Wisconsin Miami Dolphins 3 74 Steve Smith Utah Carolina Panthers 3 77 Snoop Minnis Florida State Kansas City Chiefs 4 116 Milton Wynn Washington State St. Louis Rams 4 124 Justin McCareins Northern Illinois Tennessee Titans 4 131 Cedric James Texas Christian Minnesota Vikings 5 136 Vinny Sutherland Purdue Atlanta Falcons 5 140 Alex Bannister Eastern Kentucky Seattle Seahawks 5 148 Scotty Anderson Grambling State Detroit Lions 5 153 Onome Ojo California-Davis New Orleans Saints 5 154 Darnerien McCants Delaware State Washington Redskins 5 159 Eddie Berlin Northern Iowa Tennessee Titans 5 162 Jonathan Carter Troy State New York Giants 6 169 Cedrick Wilson Tennessee San Francisco 49ers 6 190 Kevin Kasper Iowa Denver Broncos 7 204 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Oregon State Cincinnati Bengals 7 214 Reggie Germany Ohio State Buffalo Bills 7 229 Ken-Yon Rambo Ohio State Oakland Raiders 7 235 Richmond Flowers Tennessee-Chattanooga Jacksonville Jaguars 7 236 Quentin McCord Kentucky Atlanta Falcons 7 245 Andre King Miami (Fla.) Cleveland Browns 2000 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 4 Peter Warrick Florida State Cincinnati Bengals 1 8 Plaxico Burress Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers 1 10 Travis Taylor Florida Baltimore Ravens 1 21 Sylvester Morris Jackson State Kansas City Chiefs 1 29 R.Jay Soward USC Jacksonville Jaguars 2 32 Dennis Northcutt Arizona Cleveland Browns 2 36 Todd Pinkston Southern Mississippi Philadelphia Eagles 2 47 Jerry Porter West Virginia Oakland Raiders 3 66 Ron Dugans Florida State Cincinnati Bengals 3 69 Dez White Georgia Tech Chicago Bears 3 70 Chris Cole Texas A&M Denver Broncos 3 73 Ron Dixon Lambuth New York Giants 3 78 Laveranues Coles Florida State New York Jets 3 79 JaJuan Dawson Tulane Cleveland Browns 3 80 Darrell Jackson Florida Seattle Seahawks 4 99 Gari Scott Michigan State Philadelphia Eagles 4 103 Danny Farmer UCLA Pittsburgh Steelers 4 111 Trevor Gaylor Miami (Ohio) San Diego Chargers 4 114 Anthony Lucas Arkansas Green Bay Packers 4 121 Avion Black Tennessee State Buffalo Bills 5 143 Windrell Hayes USC New York Jets 5 154 Muneer Moore Richmond Denver Broncos 5 165 Troy Walters Stanford Minnesota Vikings 6 172 Mareno Philyaw Troy State Atlanta Falcons 6 175 James Williams Marshall Seattle Seahawks 6 196 Emanuel Smith Arkansas Jacksonville Jaguars 6 200 Sherrod Gideon Southern Mississippi New Orleans Saints 7 208 Desmond Kitchings Furman Kansas City Chiefs 7 233 Drew Haddad Buffalo Buffalo Bills 7 242 Charles Lee Central Florida Green Bay Packers 1999 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 6 Torry Holt North Carolina State St. Louis Rams 1 8 David Boston Ohio State Arizona Cardinals 1 13 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech Pittsburgh Steelers 2 32 Kevin Johnson Syracuse Cleveland Browns 2 53 Peerless Price Tennessee Buffalo Bills 3 71 D'Wayne Bates Northwestern Chicago Bears 3 78 Marty Booker Louisiana-Monroe Chicago Bears 3 82 Karsten Bailey Auburn Seattle Seahawks 3 93 Travis McGriff Florida Denver Broncos 4 98 Craig Yeast Kentucky Cincinnati Bengals 4 102 Dameane Douglas California Oakland Raiders 4 105 Brandon Stokley Louisiana-Lafayette Baltimore Ravens 4 108 Larry Parker USC Kansas City Chiefs 4 118 Wane McGarity Texas Dallas Cowboys 4 130 Na Brown North Carolina Philadelphia Eagles 5 148 Darrin Chiaverini Colorado Cleveland Browns 5 152 Charlie Rogers Georgia Tech Seattle Seahawks 5 164 Eugene Baker Kent State Atlanta Falcons 5 166 Malcolm Johnson Notre Dame Pittsburgh Steelers 6 171 Tai Streets Michigan San Francisco 49ers 6 193 MarTay Jenkins Nebraska-Omaha Dallas Cowboys 6 201 Troy Smith East Carolina Philadelphia Eagles 6 204 Chad Plummer Cincinnati Denver Broncos 7 213 Donald Driver Alcorn State Green Bay Packers 7 218 Billy Miller USC Denver Broncos 7 221 Sulecio Sanford Middle Tennessee State Chicago Bears 7 240 Darnell McDonald Kansas State Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 241 Sean Morey Brown New England Patriots 1998 - Wide Receivers Rd Sel # Player School Team 1 16 Kevin Dyson Utah Tennessee Oilers 1 21 Randy Moss Marshall Minnesota Vikings 1 30 Marcus Nash Tennessee Denver Broncos 2 32 Jerome Pathon Washington Indianapolis Colts 2 34 Jacquez Green Florida Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 42 Pat Johnson Oregon Baltimore Ravens 2 50 Germane Crowell Virginia Detroit Lions 2 52 Tony Simmons Wisconsin New England Patriots 2 55 Joe Jurevicius Penn State New York Giants 2 59 Mikhael Ricks Stephen F. Austin St. San Diego Chargers 3 70 Brian Alford Purdue New York Giants 3 71 E.G. Green Florida State Indianapolis Colts 3 74 Jammi German Miami (Fla.) Atlanta Falcons 3 82 Larry Shannon East Carolina Miami Dolphins 3 92 Hines Ward Georgia Pittsburgh Steelers 4 96 Az-Zahir Hakim San Diego State St. Louis Rams 4 106 Donald Hayes Wisconsin Carolina Panthers 4 114 Tim Dwight Iowa Atlanta Falcons 5 150 Corey Bradford Jackson State Green Bay Packers 6 160 Fred Coleman Washington Buffalo Bills 6 167 Jason Tucker Texas Christian Cincinnati Bengals 6 169 Bobby Shaw California Seattle Seahawks 6 174 Chris Brazzell Angelo State New York Jets 7 192 Alvis Whitted North Carolina State Jacksonville Jaguars 7 193 Phil Savoy Colorado Arizona Cardinals 7 204 Andy McCullough Tennessee New Orleans Saints 7 215 Ryan Thelwell Minnesota San Francisco 49ers 7 228 Jim Turner Syracuse Carolina Panthers 7 234 Kio Sanford Kentucky San Diego Chargers 7 238 Kamil Loud Cal Poly-S.L.O
BuckeyeBill Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Excellent post and great thoughts. I can't say I agree with you any more than I already do. With that said... sorry... the Bills are going to pick a WR at #11, be ready for it.
Tipster19 Posted March 24, 2008 Author Posted March 24, 2008 You seem to miss the point that the Bills will be taking the 1st WR off the board in all probability. When you look at it that way the past 5 years would yield you: Calvin Johnson - Could be your #2 right now Santonio Holmes- Would be your #2 right now Bralon Edwards-Would be your #1 Larry Fitzgerald-Would be your #1 Charles Rogers- Miss All of these guys minus Rogers contributed in major ways by their 2nd year. By their 3rd year, 2 of 3 are all pros and it looks as if the other 2 aren't far off. We have an 80% chance to draft an impact player if we go WR at pick #11 and he is the best of the crop. If you'd like to go back further, feel free. It doesn't the likes of Robert Meachem, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, and Rashaun Woods ( isn't he in the CFL right now?) count? Calvin Johnson-#2 pick overall. Santonio Holmes-#25 pick overall and the only WR picked in the 1st rd that year. Braylon Edwards-#3 pick overall. Larry Fitzgerald-#3 pick overall. Charles Rogers-#2 pick overall. Don't we pick 11th overall? There hasn't been anything conclusive stating that there is a sure fire 1st rd WR in this draft class. I know that we are only looking for a #2 WR but that is even more of a reason to not take with our 1st rd pick at #11. Ok, now it's my turn to cherry pick. I'd like the values of James Jones, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian, Kelley Washington, and Nate Burleson that were taken all in the 3rd rds of their drafts. I haven't bothered with some better 2nd rd WRs or Brandon Marshall who was taken in the 4th rd. I haven't seen anything yet on this thread that convinces me to change my opinion of choice #3.
Adam Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 This is why you have to have good scouts.....didn't Green Bay get Rian Grant AFTER the first day of the draft? You never HAVE to reach, unless you panic and do something stupid, which is what fans tend to want.
Dwight Drane Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 It doesn't the likes of Robert Meachem, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, and Rashaun Woods ( isn't he in the CFL right now?) count? Calvin Johnson-#2 pick overall. Santonio Holmes-#25 pick overall and the only WR picked in the 1st rd that year. Braylon Edwards-#3 pick overall. Larry Fitzgerald-#3 pick overall. Charles Rogers-#2 pick overall. Don't we pick 11th overall? There hasn't been anything conclusive stating that there is a sure fire 1st rd WR in this draft class. I know that we are only looking for a #2 WR but that is even more of a reason to not take with our 1st rd pick at #11. Ok, now it's my turn to cherry pick. I'd like the values of James Jones, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian, Kelley Washington, and Nate Burleson that were taken all in the 3rd rds of their drafts. I haven't bothered with some better 2nd rd WRs or Brandon Marshall who was taken in the 4th rd. I haven't seen anything yet on this thread that convinces me to change my opinion of choice #3. If you look at EVERY position, there are hits, misses, steals, etc. That is why you need a good crew for the draft. The draft and free agency is like running a Mutual Fund. Diversify, and you should do well. One stock may triple, while the one you thought was the best ends up going to zero. If you try and simplify the position of WR, you miss the big picture. Can the Bills find a starting WR in the 3rd round, sure. If the Bills take a WR at #11 is he going to be cut in two years, probably not. I don't think there are many good WR's in this group. I don't want the Bills to take one for the sake of taking one. I myself feel there is someone I would take at #11, as well as someone in the 2nd and 3rd if they are still there. Kelly@11, Sweed or Thomas in the 2nd, and Keenan Burton in the 3rd or 4th. I would pretty much wipe off any other WR's I have seen. Hardy, Jackson, Nelson, etc...I don't like. DJ Hall, maybe in the 4th or so. That's it. If my guys aren't there when I pick, I'll sign a veteran in August.
Mark Long Beach Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Ok, now it's my turn to cherry pick. I'd like the values of James Jones, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian, Kelley Washington, and Nate Burleson that were taken all in the 3rd rds of their drafts. I haven't bothered with some better 2nd rd WRs or Brandon Marshall who was taken in the 4th rd. Gaaaah! I HATE this logic. We need a WR2. We don't have one on the roster, there are no competent ones in free agency. The way the cards fell, we have a NEED and it's a big one. Josh Reed, who is our current #2 as our second "best" receiver has yearly yards of 449, 410 & 578. So hopefully, a player drafted to fill the roll better than JR should get more yards (and pull off some of the double-teams off of LE) Lets look at the 3rd round WRs like you mentioned, here are all the 3rd rounders that get around 400+ yards / year (approximately matching Josh Reed): 2007 LRobinson-437yds, JJones-676yds 2006 none 2005 Chris Henry -1370yds 2004 Bernard Berrian - 2197yds 2003 Nate Burleson -2675, Kevin Curtis 2824 2002 None 2001 Steve Smith 5927yds 2000 Dez White 2145; Laveranues Coles 7245yds; Darrell Jackson 6942 1999 Marty Booker 6311 1998 Hines Ward 8737 So out of 43 WRs you list going in the 3rd round only 9 exceed the performance of Josh Reed. The career yards of 27 of them don't match JR's worst year. The odds of getting a good WR aren't good. By contrast, lets look at 1st round WRs: 2007: CJ-756 TGjr-420, DB-995, AG-576 2006: SH-1776 2005: BE-2685, MC-1941, RW-2154 2004: LF-4544, RW-3657, RW-1958, LE-3727, MC-2222, MJ-1595 2003: AJ-4804, BJ-2675 2002: DS-4213, AL-3552, JW-3815 2001: DT-1602, KR-3844, RG-3165, SM-5497, RW-6984 2000: PW-2991, PB-7391, TT-4017 1999: TH-11864, DB-4699, TE-2404 1998: KD-2325, RM-12,191 Out of 43 1st round WR, a whopping 32 of them meet or exceed Josh's performance with only 11 busts. Of course I'd be mighty disappointed to just match JR's performance with a first round pick. (although JR was near the top of the 2nd round). using 750 yards as my criteria (higher than above), I get (CJ,DB,SH,BE,LF,RW,LE,AJ,SM,RW,PB,TH,DB,RM) 14 winners plus a few that I'd also add such as AG (rookie with a solid 576 yards) Donte Stallworth averaging over 700+yards, and Koren Robinson as he was good until alcoholism destroyed him. Other rookies have a chance to step up in the years to come. so that brings me to about 17 for a 1 in 3 for a real good receiver. So in summary, a 1st round receiver gives 75% chance of getting a useful NFL quality receiver, and a 1 in 3 chance of a bona fide starter. A 3rd round has around a 1 in 6 chance of being useful. Since we NEED a receiver, we should draft one early, and get our pick of the litter. Even if it's a slight "reach".
Brandon Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 This is why you have to have good scouts.....didn't Green Bay get Rian Grant AFTER the first day of the draft? You never HAVE to reach, unless you panic and do something stupid, which is what fans tend to want. You can find quality players late in the draft at any position. That doesn't mean that the odds of doing so are ever particularly good. Given their poor track record of finding quality offensive players outside of round 1, I have little confidence in the Bills' ability to find a quality starter opposite Lee Evans if they do not use their first round pick at the position. They haven't proven to be that much better defensively, but I do have more faith in their ability to find a quality defensive player in R2-7 than on offense. The Packers traded for Ryan Grant, BTW.
The Tomcat Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Quite the contrary. Going and building the rest of the roster would only validate this thought all the more. Obviously the Bills' FO didn't determine that the available players in free agency were the solution. Agreed but I think the Bills will be making a trade for a wr....just a hunch.
apuszczalowski Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 The Bills are looking for a #2 WR right now, they don't need someone to come out and be a Pro Bowler this year, just someone to be a #2. So the whole "Rookie WR's need 2-3 years to develop" arguement doesn't fully apply because that is refering to becoming a #1. Thats not saying Buffalo should be looking for someone to just be a #2, if the person is good enough to in a few years fight for a #1 spot, that is a serious plus, but right now the WR they take only needs to be a #2, and whats left in FA is not going to fill that need very well. For every great WR taken in the later rounds, theres usually 2-3 that were busts. Right now the 2 biggest needs are TE and WR for starting spots, the rest would all be depth right now. So why not take the best WR they can get to fill a #2 role right now? And comparing what other teams draft is stupid because every team is different in their needs. There is no successful plan to building a team/drafting, its all a matter of finding the best talent at every position and having a coach that can make it all work together.
LynchMob23 Posted March 24, 2008 Posted March 24, 2008 Last time we drafted for a number 2/1a receiver, we did pretty well. In fact, he pissed our number 1 off and he had to peace out!
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