Are we becoming a mirror of the Detroit Lions?

[dave mcbride]

The Giants could take three DTs in the past two drafts because they addressed their offensive problems. They have their QB and they have starting caliber WRs at the 1 and 2. They have a good two back system that gains a lot of yards and Jeremy Shockey helps them to stretch the field. Also, they have one of the better O-Lines in the league. Thus, they could afford to draft three D-Lineman in the last draft and not have a problem. Buffalo doesn't currently have that luxury. We have offensive needs that we have to address. We used FA to address the issues on D. Not fully, but they have solidified three of our need positions. Now we need to fix the offense. I think there is good DT talent to be had in the later rounds for depth, and next year there will be some very good players at the position as there are every year. Next draft is the time to address those wants, after we fill our positions of need. Also, there are two schools of thought on how to stop that short pass offense, which, by the way, was also prevalent in the late eighties and early nineties. See the 49ers and Packers for two solid examples. A 3-4 defense, much like the Bills of old used to use was used to counteract this and many teams have gone to that. However, good LBs and a solid group at safety can stop that stuff early before the short receiver can get those YACs that are so pivotal to success in the West Coast, dink and dunk type of system. Also, watching the SB this year, and the Patriots of the past eight years, I find it hard to say that the old school offenses are dead. The Pats don't exactly favor a dunk system, as they go long and deep on the corners and over the middle more than almost any other team that I have watched. Your suppositions, I think, are not as clearly demonstrable as you seem to believe.

 

AKC definitely has a point about WRs, but it falls apart when QBs enter the picture. Jimmy Johnson made sure to nab his QB (grossly underrated by AKC despite his absolulte skewering of the Bills in a certain game in January 1993) before adding to the D-line. Parcells--recognizing a dog in Quincy Carter--made sure to get his QB (Bledsoe -- a bust as it turned out) before grabbing Ware and Spears. And Cincy drafted untold numbers of D-linemen highly in the 90s before finally landing a good QB. Palmer is the only reason they ever did anything -- Kitna started the year before with the same offense, and they were the same old Bengals. Good organizations -- the Giants, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Pats, Eagles -- try to land the franchise first and then focus on d-line. If you're looking for a team with an excellent d-line strategy who is always destroyed by lousy QB play, look no farther than the team that drafted Haloti Ngata when it probably could have moved up and drafted Cutler. Now they're a team without a credible QB.

[BillsVet]

AKC definitely has a point about WRs, but it falls apart when QBs enter the picture. Jimmy Johnson made sure to nab his QB (grossly underrated by AKC despite his absolulte skewering of the Bills in a certain game in January 1993) before adding to the D-line. Parcells--recognizing a dog in Quincy Carter--made sure to get his QB (Bledsoe -- a bust as it turned out) before grabbing Ware and Spears. And Cincy drafted untold numbers of D-linemen highly in the 90s before finally landing a good QB. Palmer is the only reason they ever did anything -- Kitna started the year before with the same offense, and they were the same old Bengals. Good organizations -- the Giants, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Pats, Eagles -- try to land the franchise first and then focus on d-line. If you're looking for a team with an excellent d-line strategy who is always destroyed by lousy QB play, look no farther than the team that drafted Haloti Ngata when it probably could have moved up and drafted Cutler. Now they're a team without a credible QB.

 

QB is the most important position on the field. Second to that are blindside OT, and a pass rushing DE. Most rational fans see it that way.

 

The Bills have anointed their QB of the future. They've got their potential perennial LT. Their DE's are getting older and cannot win battles with OT's on their own. On the surface, the first position to draft shouldn't be hard.

 

The question for the next month will be: Is it better to grab a potential dominating DL or get another weapon for Edwards? The front office has a hard decision to make, but at this point, they've isolated themselves into going after option 2. As Badol mentioned earlier in the thread, what's better (I'm paraphrasing): A possession WR or a pass rusher who regularly gets to opposing QB's with the first pick?

 

The front office has a habit of being forced a certain way early in the draft. They did it in 06 with Whitner and McCargo. The scenario played out again when they required a RB and LB right away in 2007. Why should it change on draft day this year?

[Ramius]

QB is the most important position on the field. Second to that are blindside OT, and a pass rushing DE. Most rational fans see it that way.

 

The Bills have anointed their QB of the future. They've got their potential perennial LT. Their DE's are getting older and cannot win battles with OT's on their own. On the surface, the first position to draft shouldn't be hard.

 

The question for the next month will be: Is it better to grab a potential dominating DL or get another weapon for Edwards? The front office has a hard decision to make, but at this point, they've isolated themselves into going after option 2. As Badol mentioned earlier in the thread, what's better (I'm paraphrasing): A possession WR or a pass rusher who regularly gets to opposing QB's with the first pick?

 

The front office has a habit of being forced a certain way early in the draft. They did it in 06 with Whitner and McCargo. The scenario played out again when they required a RB and LB right away in 2007. Why should it change on draft day this year?

 

While your arguemnt holds some water, there is inherent bias in it. You automatically assume the DT we draft is going to be great, and that the WR is going to be so-so. You are saying that drafting a DT will give us the next tommie harris, while drafting a WR will give us a reggie williams. Theres just as good of a chance that we draft the next Roy Williams instead of the next John Sullivan.

 

I am not opposed to taking a DE at #11. But if we do, and dont get a good WR in the draft, we are going to end up still scoring 13 ppg and complaining that we have no offensive weapons when we have scored 12 TD's through the first 10 games AGAIN.

[Ramius]

Pittsburgh is a natural to try to use as support for the nonsense that Buffalo’s current 4 DTs represent the same type of quality and depth the better teams in the league employ since they play a 3-4, but even in that scheme the Steelers have 5 guys on their roster playing their DLine who are over 290. That includes their starting Nose Tackle Casey Hampton who was a 19th overall pick in the draft. Hampton just went to his 4th Pro Bowl in the offseason. We have absolutely no match for the quality the Steelers have in Hampton on our roster. If the Jags thought Stroud was going to the 2009 Pro Bowl, he wouldn’t be a Bill right now. John McCargo has yet to prove anything on the field- he may turn out to play up to his potential but we have no sign that will be the case.

 

Bottom line is, in the 3-4 we expect the Steelers will roster extra Linebackers before they’ll roster extra DTs, and yet even they have 5 guys rostered who would play the interior on a 4-3 team.

 

You can stay stuck on trying to find some exception, but the rule is The Rule. The best teams follow it.

 

I’ve mentioned the Pats* model that employs 6 interior linemen, 3 of whom were taken in the first round and 2 of those early; Also Philly (I think most fans of the game would call them a team worthy of studying for their long stay near the top of the NFC) who have used 3 first round picks this decade at DT, and you seem to downplay the Giants- who rostered 6 interior Defensive Lineman for their Super Bowl run last year.

 

So let’s look at some other teams:

 

How about Baltimore- a leading defense for years- they roster 5 DTs and even then, last year used the #12 pick to take Haloti Ngata. Some might ponder whether we’d have been a better team last year with Ngata versus Lynch, but I don’t need to think about that for a second.

 

Chicago- a DE with their first pick in 2004 and BOTH their #1 and #2 went for DTs in 2005. Super Bowl within 2 seasons.

 

Tennessee has paid due diligence to their DLine in the draft- they not just draft high, they draft a LOT of DTs looking for quality in their rotation. They’ve been among the better teams for a long time because they’ve brought in top pick DLine talent and then supported it big time. In their 2004 draft alone, of 13 picks they took 5 DLinemen! Imagine the meltdown on this board if we ever approached that type of dedication to the most important segment of any NFL roster!

 

I know you’ve declared 1st round DT Ryan Simms a bust- but he’s the same Ryan Simms who (along with 3 more 1st rounders on their DLine) was part of the Tampa DT rotation in 2007 that were second league-wide in total Defense.

 

What I’m talking about are teams that consistently top the wins and defense numbers every year. And these teams have paid MUCH more attention, drafted higher deeper at DT than have the Buffalo Bills.

 

The trend has been passing us by in the NFL for too long. We’re still a bottom feeder thinking we’re going to enter the 2008 season with the razor thin DT rotation we have right now. We DON’T have numbers and we have only hope that there is quality there- yet one premium DT added to our roster would put us in the same league with some of these better teams in the NFL. Finally. After far too long.

 

Or we can ignore the fact that we’ve neglected this and that what we’ve done so far hasn’t really addressed the issue. We’re an injury from being the same bottom dwelling run defense we were last year, in a division where we’ll pay mightily for that sin. And no matter what growing pains we might have to go through on the other side of the ball, if we have the opportunity to add quality to our DLine in round 1, there is probably no single move our Front Office could take to make us a better football team this coming season.

 

I recognize the talent at DL might not be there at 11. But one thing that's sure is that under no circumstances will there be a #11 quality WR on the draft board. That first pick might tell us much about our fortunes in the coming few seasons; have we lost all ability to pay attention to what the teams beating us every year have been doing for years and do we want to adopt it to the best of our ability, or do we remain ignorant to the emphasis the best teams put on their lines?

 

So, hampton went to the pro-bowl. He's one of the best DTs in the game. But, according to you, pittsburgh should have kept drafting DL, because thats the only way to win in this league, to keep drafting DL, irregardless of how weak you may be at other positions. Instead, they solidified the position, and addressed other, more pressing needs in subsequent drafts. The Bills also have a pro-bowler on their DT squad.

 

As for the offense, whats the definition of insanity? Repeating the same process over and over and expecting the same results. So we are supposed to just trot the 2007 offense (one of the worst in Bills' history) and expect it to all of a sudden to better? I certainly hope the 6 DTs you would draft if you were GM would be able to score a lot of defensive TDs, because thats the only way the Bills would win.

[Dibs]

While your arguemnt holds some water, there is inherent bias in it. You automatically the DT we draft is going to be great, and that the WR is going to be so-so. You are saying that drafting a DT will give us the next tommie harris, while drafting a WR will give us a reggie williams. Theres just as good of a chance that we draft the next Roy Williams instead of the next John Sullivan.

 

I am not opposed to taking a DE at #11. But if we do, and dont get a good WR in the draft, we are going to end up still scoring 13 ppg and complaining that we have no offensive weapons when we have scored 12 TD's through the first 10 games AGAIN.

Well said.

It seems to me that the major flaw being made by certain posters is that instead of arguing the overall importance of the DL they argue that the way to get a good DL is by regularly drafting DL high in the 1st. Not only does this not marry up with hardly any of the successful teams but it dilutes the importance of the original point.

Obtaining a good DL is what matters......not how you get one. Teams that fail with their high DL picks(eg Browns) can still develop a strong DL through 'lucky' lower round picks & via FA. Teams that get lucky like that may never need to spend their high 1st round picks on the DL......teams that don't may end up drafting DL every second year till they get what they want....the same goes for every position.

 

It also seems to me that certain posters totally ignore the concept that even with a strong DL you still need decent/good players throughout the rest of the team to become a champion.......where do those players come from? Answer: The same places you get DLmen from.

[Dibs]

I had a momentary lapse because our receivers really are a disgrace.

I've wanted to discuss this for a little while now......

Are our receivers really such a disgrace?

WR1 Evans: With better playcalling, QBing & better support he could be a top 10 WR.

WR2 ???: HIGH NEED

WR3(4) Parrish(& Reed): Well above the average for the 3rd/4th WRs on most teams.....could perhaps shine(see Evans)

RB Lynch: Supposedly a natural receiver....coming into 2nd season could perhaps shine(see Evans)

TE Royals: No true pass catching threat at the TE position.

 

Generally in the passing game a good WR3(4), TE & RB are not all required. Many successful offenses do not use the RB much at all in the passing game.....similarly with TE & WR3(4).

 

Last season our offense was extremely predictable......running on 1st down was the rule.....we had basically rookie production at QB and a rookie RB who's receiving skills seemed much underutilized. We had nobody at WR2. IMO if we find a good WR2, get improvement from Edwards and use a professional offensive game-plan we could well have a very dynamic passing game.

Evans/Big fast WR2/Parrish/Lynch......this combination could be great with 3/4 already in place.....all we may need is one player(Big Fast WR2)

[BillsVet]

While your arguemnt holds some water, there is inherent bias in it. You automatically assume the DT we draft is going to be great, and that the WR is going to be so-so. You are saying that drafting a DT will give us the next tommie harris, while drafting a WR will give us a reggie williams. Theres just as good of a chance that we draft the next Roy Williams instead of the next John Sullivan.

 

I am not opposed to taking a DE at #11. But if we do, and dont get a good WR in the draft, we are going to end up still scoring 13 ppg and complaining that we have no offensive weapons when we have scored 12 TD's through the first 10 games AGAIN.

 

I assume nothing with the draft. I didn't even say it would need to be a DT selected, but words were placed in my mouth. I simply place a premium on pass rushers over WR at #11 in the draft.

 

Neither Sweed nor Kelly represent the legitimate WR who can stretch the field and dominate. This isn't the Big 12 anymore. OTOH, Roy Williams in 2004 was heralded as a much better talent than any receiver available in this years draft. Even so, it takes two to tango, and only upon having an average QB in Kitna did Williams excel.

 

The chances of a WR changing games is a lot less than a DE with pass-rushing ability, especially in a rookie season. A DE doesn't need someone throwing the ball to them in order to affect the final outcome. Tom Brady learned it the hard way on SB Sunday. Randy Moss, meanwhile, was not so much the receiver without Brady throwing something into his zip code.

 

There will be decent WR's available in round 2. While they may not be instant impact, which the Bills will require because they've ignored the position in FA, Buffalo will have to get by with what they've got or with rookies. It's a sobering thought, but a result of having principle (no 1 year deals for 20somethings) supercede product (desperately needing another WR to assist the development of their QB)

[Ramius]

I assume nothing with the draft. I didn't even say it would need to be a DT selected, but words were placed in my mouth. I simply place a premium on pass rushers over WR at #11 in the draft.

 

Neither Sweed nor Kelly represent the legitimate WR who can stretch the field and dominate. This isn't the Big 12 anymore. OTOH, Roy Williams in 2004 was heralded as a much better talent than any receiver available in this years draft. Even so, it takes two to tango, and only upon having an average QB in Kitna did Williams excel.

 

The chances of a WR changing games is a lot less than a DE with pass-rushing ability, especially in a rookie season. A DE doesn't need someone throwing the ball to them in order to affect the final outcome. Tom Brady learned it the hard way on SB Sunday. Randy Moss, meanwhile, was not so much the receiver without Brady throwing something into his zip code.

 

There will be decent WR's available in round 2. While they may not be instant impact, which the Bills will require because they've ignored the position in FA, Buffalo will have to get by with what they've got or with rookies. It's a sobering thought, but a result of having principle (no 1 year deals for 20somethings) supercede product (desperately needing another WR to assist the development of their QB)

 

I'm amazed at your ability to determine that neither Sweed nor Kelly will amount to much in the NFL. That is the exact bias i am talking about.

[AKC]

So, hampton went to the pro-bowl. He's one of the best DTs in the game. But, according to you, pittsburgh should have kept drafting DL, because thats the only way to win in this league, to keep drafting DL, irregardless of how weak you may be at other positions. Instead, they solidified the position, and addressed other, more pressing needs in subsequent drafts. The Bills also have a pro-bowler on their DT squad.

 

As for the offense, whats the definition of insanity? Repeating the same process over and over and expecting the same results. So we are supposed to just trot the 2007 offense (one of the worst in Bills' history) and expect it to all of a sudden to better? I certainly hope the 6 DTs you would draft if you were GM would be able to score a lot of defensive TDs, because thats the only way the Bills would win.

 

Pittsburgh has Casey Hampton, a monster DT in the middle of their 3-4 defense who is supported by 4 more big guys to keep their rotation of interior bodies up to the task they accomplish when the go on the field Sundays- the task of being the #1 Defense in the NFL in 2007.

 

Buffalo has no Casey Hampton. We also don't have the 4 other quality support people. And of even more concern should be that we play a 4-3 rotational defensive interior scheme, whereas Pittsburgh puts extra roster depth at OLB because of their 3-4 based D.

 

We have a guy who USED to be a Casey Hampton quality player, but has not shown that for two full seasons. We have no idea right now what we have with Stroud. We also have a pretty good idea that John McCargo is not going to become a Hampton or the "former" Stroud quality player. So we have four guys right now in rotation. We really don't know right now that we have any "more" than we had last year, when we were 31st in the league in Defense.

 

So as far as Pitt and who they should draft- let's see. They have the same fine interior rotation that they had last year when they were #1 overall. I think it's safe to say that they have the type of base that the better teams have at their D interior- which gives them the luxury of looking at other positions at the top of the draft.

 

But as far as the Bills, we aren't really sure we're any better off going into 2008 for the scheme we play. Right now our second wave of interior D linemen, who get about 40% of the snaps in our system, are even smaller than they were last year. The new starter you've pinned a huge responsibility to make us better against the run missed 30% of his team's snaps in 2006 and 50% in 2007.

 

Anyone objectively considering the rosters of the best teams in the league would recognize that we are razor thin at DT. We were awful against the run in 2007, and if Stroud's health situation simply stabilizes and doesn't get worse (missing 8 games) we are LIKELY this season to be the #32 defense in the NFL against the run. Don't read my position wrong, I like the moves so far. I like the penetrating second wave guy- I like the starting big man with good first steps, but short of adding one more talented player to that rotation, it's simply a full player shy of the way the best teams playing in 4-3s approach the game.

 

And the talk about "if we don't score points" is nearly total nonsense. We have more talent on the O side of the ball than our results last year would suggest. With a D that doesn't cave in on every running play and third down throw, we would give our offense more chances. Last year our offense was under as much pressure from our own defense as any opponent's. Our D allowed no room for error- if our O made any mistake our D on very few occasions had the horses to make up for it. Improving our defense and in the process taking pressure off our offense and increasing their number of opportunities will do far more for this football team than reaching early for a WR who probably won't knock Josh Reed out of a starting job. We can make that type of move in the 3rd round.

 

IMO our Offense looks to benefit most by a scheme adjustment/overhaul and help from the other side of the ball, versus a Detoit Lion-like desperation grab of a WR in the first who may not be in the league in 5 years. We work in the AFC East. We're going to continue to pay for that if we continue to squeeze equity from our lines in favor of guys who catch footballs. We have substantial draft equity right now at WR. Hopefully our front office recognizes this and we aren't embarrassed on April 26th with Fantasy Pick instead of the type of player the better front offices in the league would make if they were running our draft.

[Ramius]

Pittsburgh has Casey Hampton, a monster DT in the middle of their 3-4 defense who is supported by 4 more big guys to keep their rotation of interior bodies up to the task they accomplish when the go on the field Sundays- the task of being the #1 Defense in the NFL in 2007.

 

Buffalo has no Casey Hampton. We also don't have the 4 other quality support people. And of even more concern should be that we play a 4-3 rotational defensive interior scheme, whereas Pittsburgh puts extra roster depth at OLB because of their 3-4 based D.

 

We have a guy who USED to be a Casey Hampton quality player, but has not shown that for two full seasons. We have no idea right now what we have with Stroud. We also have a pretty good idea that John McCargo is not going to become a Hampton or the "former" Stroud quality player. So we have four guys right now in rotation. We really don't know right now that we have any "more" than we had last year, when we were 31st in the league in Defense.

 

So as far as Pitt and who they should draft- let's see. They have the same fine interior rotation that they had last year when they were #1 overall. I think it's safe to say that they have the type of base that the better teams have at their D interior- which gives them the luxury of looking at other positions at the top of the draft.

 

But as far as the Bills, we aren't really sure we're any better off going into 2008 for the scheme we play. Right now our second wave of interior D linemen, who get about 40% of the snaps in our system, are even smaller than they were last year. The new starter you've pinned a huge responsibility to make us better against the run missed 30% of his team's snaps in 2006 and 50% in 2007.

 

Anyone objectively considering the rosters of the best teams in the league would recognize that we are razor thin at DT. We were awful against the run in 2007, and if Stroud's health situation simply stabilizes and doesn't get worse (missing 8 games) we are LIKELY this season to be the #32 defense in the NFL against the run. Don't read my position wrong, I like the moves so far. I like the penetrating second wave guy- I like the starting big man with good first steps, but short of adding one more talented player to that rotation, it's simply a full player shy of the way the best teams playing in 4-3s approach the game.

 

And the talk about "if we don't score points" is nearly total nonsense. We have more talent on the O side of the ball than our results last year would suggest. With a D that doesn't cave in on every running play and third down throw, we would give our offense more chances. Last year our offense was under as much pressure from our own defense as any opponent's. Our D allowed no room for error- if our O made any mistake our D on very few occasions had the horses to make up for it. Improving our defense and in the process taking pressure off our offense and increasing their number of opportunities will do far more for this football team than reaching early for a WR who probably won't knock Josh Reed out of a starting job. We can make that type of move in the 3rd round.

 

IMO our Offense looks to benefit most by a scheme adjustment/overhaul and help from the other side of the ball, versus a Detoit Lion-like desperation grab of a WR in the first who may not be in the league in 5 years. We work in the AFC East. We're going to continue to pay for that if we continue to squeeze equity from our lines in favor of guys who catch footballs. We have substantial draft equity right now at WR. Hopefully our front office recognizes this and we aren't embarrassed on April 26th with Fantasy Pick instead of the type of player the better front offices in the league would make if they were running our draft.

 

You arent giving enough credit to the current Bills players. We dont know how McCargo will turn out yet, and he showed some real promise last season. With a good DT next to him finally, he's in a position to really shine.

 

You say our D allowed no room for error? What about our offense? They allowed no room for error. If the D couldnt hold the defense to under 17 points, the Bills simply werent going to win the game. Every time our D gave the offense the ball, they could barely manage a FG out of the drive.

 

How again exactly will drafting a WR make the Bills like the Lions? We've taken 2 1st round wRs in the last 12 drafts, NOT 4 of the last 5 as you'd have everyone believe.

 

Again, if selecting WRs in a fantasy football draft mentality, why do so many teams do it year after year, including perennial powerhouses, pittsburgh and indy?

 

You have some solid points about building a DL, but unfortunately they become obscured in your oversimplified, overstated crusade.

[AKC]

You have some solid points about building a DL, but unfortunately they become obscured in your oversimplified, overstated crusade.

 

The only "oversimplification" in this string is your continued suggestion that anyone ever suggested no team should ever draft a WR in the first round.

 

WR is an acknowledged weakness in the draft and we're picking 11. Show me all the draft analyses with ANY receiver in this draft picked as a top 11 talent this year.

 

And your insistance on trying to simplify my equity analysis of defensive line talent to something I've never said still rings hollow even in the vacuum you're viewing it in-

 

Our current roster consumes more of our first two-round draft equity on WR than any other position on the team. I've shown that many of the top teams in the league don't build rosters that way- instead they have more equity in DTs than in WRs at the top of the draft. You appear to be happy to risk the #11 pick and possibly end up with another Josh Reed, and I beleive we'll be better of considering other options. Options I think it's demonstrated the smart teams use- taking top DLine talent when available at the top of the draft.

 

It's all about equity. I'd prefer you recognize the equity equation that I've highlighted all through the string than have you continue falling into the "only drafting DTs" or "DTs can't score" nonsense. There are some in the string who recognize what I've laid out- the top tier teams who built those successful teams with a heavy equity payment in the early part of the draft on DL, and specifically DT. You continue to try to find some exception, using (of all things) a 3-4 team, and even then that team has one of the best DL rotations in the league. You are free to predict that the Bills rushing defense woes have been solved by bringing in what appears to be a twilight player, and I fully recognize that there have been plenty of examples of twilight DTs having a lot bigger tank than they were credited with, but EVEN if he plays well our rotation is still shy the number of quality players our better opponents have there.

 

I for one won't be happy if we make a reckless reach for the next Mike Williams, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick or David Boston- all taken before the 11th pick of the 1st round. I think we can do a whole lot better.

[Steely Dan]

You are still oversimplfying. look at the steeler drafts going back a long time. Their 1st and 2nd round picks from 1999 to 2007 (18 picks) amount to this:

 

5 DB

4 WR

3 LB

1 TE

1 QB

1 DE

1 OG

1 OT

1 DT

 

In the last 9 years, can you explain how a team like the steelers, traditionally successful (including a SB win) spent 1/2 of their first and second round draft picks on WR/DB, and only 2 on the DL, yet somehow managed to remain successful. Because, according to your simplification, they should have gone the way of the Lions a loooong time ago. They havent drafted a DL in those rounds since 2003.

 

Obviously, a strong DL is a good thing to have. But your oversimplifications are going overboard. Simply stocking the DL with draft pick after draft pick, just so you can have DTs, doesnt make sense, especially when a team has other glaring needs and already spent 2 draft picks on a DT. The Bills currently have a very solid, with a potential to be really good DT rotation currently, with Stroud, McCargo, Johnson, and Williams. Sure, if Dorsey or Ellis falls to #11, we should snag them. If they dont, then what DT do we take?

 

The most successfuly teams draft the best players and telent, and more importantly, dont miss draft picks, regardless of position.

 

 

 

awesome post. Even though I disagree with some parts. I question if our dt rotation can be anything over average. Our de rotation is terrible. I do agree past dorsey or ellis there really isn't a dt worth taking at 11. The only dline player worth taking at 11 is Harvey. We could grab a dt in the 3rd or 4th someone like dre moore red bryant, Ahtyba Rubin. There will be solid dt's to add later on. Lucky for the bills though a premiere pass rusher should be available, rather then overdrafting one of these mediocre wideouts.

 

The D line rotation is horrible? Stroud, McCargo, Schobel and Denney with spencer back with the other DL players that played really well during a horrible injury year on defense?

 

McCargo should be a lot better with a good DL to put next to him. If Stroud gets the double teams look for McCargo to have a big year. The Bills need another DT I agree but the guy they need they can get in the third round.

 

 

You are extremely ignorant. You can call the Bills the Lions when we draft WR's when we have no need for them.

 

 

 

Pittsburgh is a natural to try to use as support for the nonsense that Buffalo’s current 4 DTs represent the same type of quality and depth the better teams in the league employ since they play a 3-4, but even in that scheme the Steelers have 5 guys on their roster playing their DLine who are over 290. That includes their starting Nose Tackle Casey Hampton who was a 19th overall pick in the draft. Hampton just went to his 4th Pro Bowl in the offseason. We have absolutely no match for the quality the Steelers have in Hampton on our roster. If the Jags thought Stroud was going to the 2009 Pro Bowl, he wouldn’t be a Bill right now. John McCargo has yet to prove anything on the field- he may turn out to play up to his potential but we have no sign that will be the case.

 

Bottom line is, in the 3-4 we expect the Steelers will roster extra Linebackers before they’ll roster extra DTs, and yet even they have 5 guys rostered who would play the interior on a 4-3 team.

 

You can stay stuck on trying to find some exception, but the rule is The Rule. The best teams follow it.

 

I’ve mentioned the Pats* model that employs 6 interior linemen, 3 of whom were taken in the first round and 2 of those early; Also Philly (I think most fans of the game would call them a team worthy of studying for their long stay near the top of the NFC) who have used 3 first round picks this decade at DT, and you seem to downplay the Giants- who rostered 6 interior Defensive Lineman for their Super Bowl run last year.

 

So let’s look at some other teams:

 

How about Baltimore- a leading defense for years- they roster 5 DTs and even then, last year used the #12 pick to take Haloti Ngata. Some might ponder whether we’d have been a better team last year with Ngata versus Lynch, but I don’t need to think about that for a second.

 

Chicago- a DE with their first pick in 2004 and BOTH their #1 and #2 went for DTs in 2005. Super Bowl within 2 seasons.

 

Tennessee has paid due diligence to their DLine in the draft- they not just draft high, they draft a LOT of DTs looking for quality in their rotation. They’ve been among the better teams for a long time because they’ve brought in top pick DLine talent and then supported it big time. In their 2004 draft alone, of 13 picks they took 5 DLinemen! Imagine the meltdown on this board if we ever approached that type of dedication to the most important segment of any NFL roster!

 

I know you’ve declared 1st round DT Ryan Simms a bust- but he’s the same Ryan Simms who (along with 3 more 1st rounders on their DLine) was part of the Tampa DT rotation in 2007 that were second league-wide in total Defense.

 

What I’m talking about are teams that consistently top the wins and defense numbers every year. And these teams have paid MUCH more attention, drafted higher deeper at DT than have the Buffalo Bills.

 

The trend has been passing us by in the NFL for too long. We’re still a bottom feeder thinking we’re going to enter the 2008 season with the razor thin DT rotation we have right now. We DON’T have numbers and we have only hope that there is quality there- yet one premium DT added to our roster would put us in the same league with some of these better teams in the NFL. Finally. After far too long.

 

Or we can ignore the fact that we’ve neglected this and that what we’ve done so far hasn’t really addressed the issue. We’re an injury from being the same bottom dwelling run defense we were last year, in a division where we’ll pay mightily for that sin. And no matter what growing pains we might have to go through on the other side of the ball, if we have the opportunity to add quality to our DLine in round 1, there is probably no single move our Front Office could take to make us a better football team this coming season.

 

Razor thin? See above.

 

Baltimore last year 5-11. Your point is....?

Tennessee last year 10-6, 2006 8-8, 2005 4-12, 2004 5-11, 2003 13-5, 2002 11-5 and 2001 9-7 Your point is...?

 

Chicago last year 9-7 and your point is...?

 

Looks to me like stocking up DL's doesn't lead a team to success.

 

 

One trend that I think is being widely acknowledged since the Giants finish is that the importance of superior talent all across the Dline is becoming a necessity of the game. We have more offenses that dump the ball so quickly that there's not time like "the old days" of the 1990s to get to many QBs before they throw. So the time thay are a changin', and the smart have been ahead of this for the past decade. Teams that have spent draft equity for their good DLines have been overwhelmingly the teams who have ended up the most competitive. Is there an occasional exception- Indy would be the one team doing it on the other side o the ball, but the numbers favor any team without Peyton Manning going hard for DLine.

 

New England* drafted Defensive Tackles in the first round in 2001, 2003 and 2005. They used the #6, #13 and #21 picks for those Defensive Tackles. Those also represent the 3 highest picks the Patriots* have had over that time period.

 

Look above again it might sink in.

 

 

I assume nothing with the draft. I didn't even say it would need to be a DT selected, but words were placed in my mouth. I simply place a premium on pass rushers over WR at #11 in the draft.

 

Neither Sweed nor Kelly represent the legitimate WR who can stretch the field and dominate. This isn't the Big 12 anymore. OTOH, Roy Williams in 2004 was heralded as a much better talent than any receiver available in this years draft. Even so, it takes two to tango, and only upon having an average QB in Kitna did Williams excel.

 

The chances of a WR changing games is a lot less than a DE with pass-rushing ability, especially in a rookie season. A DE doesn't need someone throwing the ball to them in order to affect the final outcome. Tom Brady learned it the hard way on SB Sunday. Randy Moss, meanwhile, was not so much the receiver without Brady throwing something into his zip code.

 

There will be decent WR's available in round 2. While they may not be instant impact, which the Bills will require because they've ignored the position in FA, Buffalo will have to get by with what they've got or with rookies. It's a sobering thought, but a result of having principle (no 1 year deals for 20somethings) supercede product (desperately needing another WR to assist the development of their QB)

 

So Buffalo should ignore the WR position every year because it takes time to develop a WR? If Buffalo has the ability to get a Sweed like player they take it. After the first four DL's there is nobody of value more than Sweed, IMO.

 

BTW, What did the Colts spend their first round draft pick on last year?

[AKC]

Baltimore last year 5-11. Your point is....?

Tennessee last year 10-6, 2006 8-8, 2005 4-12, 2004 5-11, 2003 13-5, 2002 11-5 and 2001 9-7 Your point is...?

 

Chicago last year 9-7 and your point is...?

 

Looks to me like stocking up DL's doesn't lead a team to success.

 

Chicago played in the 2007 Super Bowl (right after shoring up their DT position in the top of the draft).

Minnesota, Baltimore and Tenn? All top 5 run defenses in the NFL in 2007.

 

Maybe having a top defense or playing in the Super Bowl isn't important to you. I know some of the Fantasy people around here would be most enthusiastic about our prospects each approaching season if we only drafted QBs/RBs and WRS and just kept 11 guys on the roster to play that darned defense. But the big leagues just don't work the same way. The fact that you dis the Titans regular playoff appearances is a good sign that you are totally out of touch with the power of a good defense. And if you don't understand what a good defense does for a team, how could I possible expect you to recognize that the best teams invest their highest draft equity in quality DLine prospects?

 

After the first four DL's there is nobody of value more than Sweed, IMO.

 

And there we have it! At least you've gone out on a limb here- there is not one single credible national draft analyst who agrees with you. Now usually we can find one service willing to rate an Ed Gein over a Ted Ginn, but not this year- you're all on your own there! Sweed a top 5 player in this draft - Got it!

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

 

 

 

 

The D line rotation is horrible? Stroud, McCargo, Schobel and Denney with spencer back with the other DL players that played really well during a horrible injury year on defense?

 

McCargo should be a lot better with a good DL to put next to him. If Stroud gets the double teams look for McCargo to have a big year. The Bills need another DT I agree but the guy they need they can get in the third round.

 

DT isn't nearly as bad off, as we are at defensive end. Like I said in my post, we can get that 3rd-4th round player, to fill out the rotation. Horrible was a bit of an overstatement on my part. More like razor thin, and severly lacking, especially at defensive end. .I'm not convinced with our current ends that we'll have anything resmbling a good pass rush yet. All we would need, if one freak injury to Schobel, and we're talking about one of, if not the worst pass rush d in the league. I'm not all that fond of Kelsay. Ryan Denney to me is actually a better player. Denney is ideal in that Israel Idonije role, as the 4th de. A guy with some inital quickness, height, and good technique, who you can move inside on passing downs, and disrupt the pocket. I don't know what exactly Kelsay offers. That you couldn't get from just about every average dend prospect that comes out nearly every season.

 

We're sort of stuck with him due to contract. Maybe he could play that Alex Brown role for us. Although not as talented as Alex Brown, can be a decent #3 type end, who can spell a starter during the rotation, to keep bodies fresh. I just don't get the appeal of having a chris kelsay on your roster. The guy isn't quick, isn't overly strong. Doesn't have a wide array of pass rush moves. Not that good against the run. His closing burst is lacking. He might have some value as a wave player. He just looks out of place as a starter. I actually thought our defense performed better, when Hargrove, was playing for an injured Kelsay. I'd rather see the bills do everything they could to address this area, then rely strictly on hope that somehow a mediocre end will play above and beyond his ability. All because we added a dt. Who the bills are hoping regains his form. I'm not seeing it.

[BillsVet]

So Buffalo should ignore the WR position every year because it takes time to develop a WR? If Buffalo has the ability to get a Sweed like player they take it. After the first four DL's there is nobody of value more than Sweed, IMO.

 

BTW, What did the Colts spend their first round draft pick on last year?

 

 

First, I can't believe I'm arguing with someone who's screen name is used, ahem, for "extracurricular activities" to put it mildly.

 

Second, don't even for a second suggest using the Colts as an example. Just don't. If you can't tell the difference organizationally between the Bills and the team who a little more than a year ago won the SB, you're off your rocker.

 

Third, don't go to extremes with this WR thing. You've been advocating a WR purely because the Bills don't have much besides Evans. Parrish and Reed are not built to be #2 receivers. Unfortuantely, there are some that insist on putting on their brainbucket of ignorance and refuse to understand that certain positions carry more weight on the field of play. There are a host of WR's in the past 15 years who made very nice careers. Meanwhile, DL's that can over the long haul consisnently get to the QB are a rare breed. When you have the chance to fill a position so much in demand leaguewide like DL as opposed to finding a #2 WR, well, the decision's pretty easy.

 

The Bills will be more successful in the long term by taking a top DL as opposed to a top WR in the first. Mark it down.

 

That simple concept is lost on so many, including you. Again, the Bills have painted themselves into a corner at WR, much like they did a S and DT in 2006. Ditto for RB and LB in 2007. Now we're facing WR and TE in 2008. What will it be next season?

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

First, I can't believe I'm arguing with someone who's screen name is used, ahem, for "extracurricular activities" to put it mildly.

 

Second, don't even for a second suggest using the Colts as an example. Just don't. If you can't tell the difference organizationally between the Bills and the team who a little more than a year ago won the SB, you're off your rocker.

 

Third, don't go to extremes with this WR thing. You've been advocating a WR purely because the Bills don't have much besides Evans. Parrish and Reed are not built to be #2 receivers. Unfortuantely, there are some that insist on putting on their brainbucket of ignorance and refuse to understand that certain positions carry more weight on the field of play. There are a host of WR's in the past 15 years who made very nice careers. Meanwhile, DL's that can over the long haul consisnently get to the QB are a rare breed. When you have the chance to fill a position so much in demand leaguewide like DL as opposed to finding a #2 WR, well, the decision's pretty easy.

 

The Bills will be more successful in the long term by taking a top DL as opposed to a top WR in the first. Mark it down.

 

That simple concept is lost on so many, including you. Again, the Bills have painted themselves into a corner at WR, much like they did a S and DT in 2006. Ditto for RB and LB in 2007. Now we're facing WR and TE in 2008. What will it be next season?

 

One would think without addressing it now, that next years problem will be the obvious of defensive line, by nothing other then default. Better to do it now, and let the d build cohesion, and get a later round wideout/te. Who odds are in this draft. Won't be much different then any wr the bills would otherwise overdraft in the 1st.

[AKC]

First, I can't believe I'm arguing with someone who's screen name is used, ahem, for "extracurricular activities" to put it mildly.

 

When we've got someone in here trying to sneak by us their notion that the Bill's draft strategy of the past decade has been more successful than the Titan's, it's hard to imagine any discussion with them being represented as "arguing".

[Booster4324]

When we've got someone in here trying to sneak by us their notion that the Bill's draft strategy of the past decade has been more successful than the Titan's, it's hard to imagine any discussion with them being represented as "arguing".

 

Man, even if I almost agree with you, your debate tactics turn me off so much that I say we draft a WR. Oh and a singular DT > QB. You will never live that down as, even in the now sadly gone thread, you had to revert to the theory that the DL > QB.

[Steely Dan]

Chicago played in the 2007 Super Bowl (right after shoring up their DT position in the top of the draft).

Minnesota, Baltimore and Tenn? All top 5 run defenses in the NFL in 2007.

 

Maybe having a top defense or playing in the Super Bowl isn't important to you. I know some of the Fantasy people around here would be most enthusiastic about our prospects each approaching season if we only drafted QBs/RBs and WRS and just kept 11 guys on the roster to play that darned defense. But the big leagues just don't work the same way. The fact that you dis the Titans regular playoff appearances is a good sign that you are totally out of touch with the power of a good defense. And if you don't understand what a good defense does for a team, how could I possible expect you to recognize that the best teams invest their highest draft equity in quality DLine prospects?

 

 

 

And there we have it! At least you've gone out on a limb here- there is not one single credible national draft analyst who agrees with you. Now usually we can find one service willing to rate an Ed Gein over a Ted Ginn, but not this year- you're all on your own there! Sweed a top 5 player in this draft - Got it!

 

First off by regular playoff appearances you mean that 3 out of the last seven years is regular?

 

Second I already posted three but I guess you missed that.

 

First, I can't believe I'm arguing with someone who's screen name is used, ahem, for "extracurricular activities" to put it mildly.

 

Second, don't even for a second suggest using the Colts as an example. Just don't. If you can't tell the difference organizationally between the Bills and the team who a little more than a year ago won the SB, you're off your rocker.

 

Third, don't go to extremes with this WR thing. You've been advocating a WR purely because the Bills don't have much besides Evans. Parrish and Reed are not built to be #2 receivers. Unfortuantely, there are some that insist on putting on their brainbucket of ignorance and refuse to understand that certain positions carry more weight on the field of play. There are a host of WR's in the past 15 years who made very nice careers. Meanwhile, DL's that can over the long haul consisnently get to the QB are a rare breed. When you have the chance to fill a position so much in demand leaguewide like DL as opposed to finding a #2 WR, well, the decision's pretty easy.

 

The Bills will be more successful in the long term by taking a top DL as opposed to a top WR in the first. Mark it down.

 

That simple concept is lost on so many, including you. Again, the Bills have painted themselves into a corner at WR, much like they did a S and DT in 2006. Ditto for RB and LB in 2007. Now we're facing WR and TE in 2008. What will it be next season?

 

The name is for a band and the band was named after a steel dildo in William Burroghs "Naked Lunch". It never actually existed it's fictional.

 

So let me get this right, the Colts are a great drafting team that the Bills should emulate except when it doesn't make your point strong. In fact it ruins your point. There are TWO sides of the game not counting the kicking game. A team needs to be strong on both sides. A team that succeeds is a team that addresses glaring needs first. The Bills can get the perfect player in the third round in Jason Jones. He plays interior and end. He is the perfect backup to bring along because the starters are strong. A versatile player is much better than a one trick pony.

 

So Whitner sucks? McCargo sucks? Lynch Sucks? Poz Sucks? Looks like when they paint themselves into a corner they come out smelling like a rose. So what's your point?

 

 

When we've got someone in here trying to sneak by us their notion that the Bill's draft strategy of the past decade has been more successful than the Titan's, it's hard to imagine any discussion with them being represented as "arguing".

 

When have I ever said that the Bills draft strategy for the past decade has been better than the Titans? Go back and find it. I'll save you time you won't find it. You have to skew the argument to make yourself look better. The Bills drafting only matters over the last two years. My point is that using a team that has made the playoffs three times in seven years as a model is laughable.

[AKC]

When have I ever said that the Bills draft strategy for the past decade has been better than the Titans? Go back and find it. I'll save you time you won't find it.

 

You shouldn't make this so easy ;-)

 

Tennessee last year 10-6, 2006 8-8, 2005 4-12, 2004 5-11, 2003 13-5, 2002 11-5 and 2001 9-7 Your point is...?