Steely Dan Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Like the outcome of any wager, there are odds for correctly picking tournament game winners, Final Four teams and the champion. The chances of picking every outcome correctly - the perfect bracket - are staggeringly low. If you assumed that each game was a toss-up, like a coin flip, your chances of picking every game correctly would be .5 to the 63rd power - one in 9 million trillion, explained Wall Street Journal columnist Carl Bialik. No one has ever filled out a perfect bracket, according to his research. Linkage ___________________________________ If you're in an office or online pool, you'd fill out a "bracket," a tournament chart that shows all the teams. In a bracket, you pick the teams that you think will win each game. You can fill out a second bracket if you want to make a second guess at the outcome of the tournament. Can you write down all possible outcomes in the tournament to be assured of winning the pool? "Not unless you write very fast and get lots of help," said Breen. Since there are 64 games and two possible outcomes for each game-a win and a loss-the number of possible outcomes for the tournament is a staggering 2 to the power of 64--2 multiplied by itself 64 times--or 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 if you want to spell it out. With that many possibilities, every man, woman, child and baby on the planet could fill out 2.8 billion brackets--each of them completely unique--and still not exhaust the possibilities. Want to guarantee winning your office pool? If you put in a dollar for each of those possibilities, that would be equal to paying off the U.S. National Debt (about $7 trillion as of March 2004) 26 million times. Linkage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Of course, estimating it to be a coin flip is way oversimplifying things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Of course, estimating it to be a coin flip is way oversimplifying things. I don't think it's much better when you have knowledge of the game. Some of the best brackets I've seen have been filled out by people who know NOTHING about college B-Ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I don't think it's much better when you have knowledge of the game. Some of the best brackets I've seen have been filled out by people who know NOTHING about college B-Ball. Lots of first round games are virtual guarantees when you look at the statistics. The four 1 seeds, four 2 seeds, four 3 seeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 Lots of first round games are virtual guarantees when you look at the statistics. The four 1 seeds, four 2 seeds, four 3 seeds. True dat. No 16 seed has ever offed a 1 seed but let's say those odds are four times to large. That's still staggering odds to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 True dat. No 16 seed has ever offed a 1 seed but let's say those odds are four times to large. That's still staggering odds to beat. There's a lot of room between a bracket that "sucks" and one that is a perfect 63 for 63. I used to follow college b-ball quite closely back in my 20s and always did well in the pools; analyzing match-ups, identifying the hot guard tandems, mismatches, etc. I probably won $1000 in pools during those years. These days sadly I go more by reputation and rank....and never picking the big favorite to win it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 ....and never picking the big favorite to win it all. I would think the scoring system comes into play there. I've won some pools picking the favorite under the standard "1pt for 1st round, 6 pts for champion" rules.... This year my office has this ridiculous escalating point system where the championship is 25 points. I figured if I took UCLA or UNC to win it all there's a good chance I'd be mathematically eliminated after the 1st weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I still havent seen a better bracket than my neighbor during freshman yr of undergrad. The kid knew his college ball, and nailed 59 of the 63 games correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bullpen Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I still havent seen a better bracket than my neighbor during freshman yr of undergrad. The kid knew his college ball, and nailed 59 of the 63 games correct. The WORST situation I've ever encountered was a guy I know was running a $10.00 pool once (no big deal), but he actually CHEATED so his "girlfriend" won. (we could never prove it, but she supposedly nailed the ENTIRE first round and just to make it look good she missed two in the second round) and then only lost a couple other games on down the road. Once she nailed the first round (this in the year George Mason ruined everyone's bracket) it was all over. She supposedly had them going to the final four!!! He collected all the sheets and we had no reason to assume he would give us the "stiffler" on it. She had it won before the finals even tipped off. Later that summer after a softball game someone mentioned to her that she had great bracket picks and wondered what she did with the prize money? She said "what prize money?" Needless to say the guy never asked any of us to be in his pool again, and we conveniently forgot to ever invite him to poker games, fantasy football drafts or even 25-cent nassau golf outings. He was basically black-balled from anything involving wagering as our way of sending the message that we knew he rooked us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I would think the scoring system comes into play there. I've won some pools picking the favorite under the standard "1pt for 1st round, 6 pts for champion" rules....This year my office has this ridiculous escalating point system where the championship is 25 points. I figured if I took UCLA or UNC to win it all there's a good chance I'd be mathematically eliminated after the 1st weekend. Very good point. You do have to be more conservative in your picks with the escalating points system. I did pick a #1 seed to win it this year, just not UNC (normally my favorite team). I just like to avoid the rush from all the neophytes who pick the #1 ranked team every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 The WORST situation I've ever encountered was a guy I know was running a $10.00 pool once (no big deal), but he actually CHEATED so his "girlfriend" won. (we could never prove it, but she supposedly nailed the ENTIRE first round and just to make it look good she missed two in the second round) and then only lost a couple other games on down the road. Once she nailed the first round (this in the year George Mason ruined everyone's bracket) it was all over. She supposedly had them going to the final four!!! He collected all the sheets and we had no reason to assume he would give us the "stiffler" on it. She had it won before the finals even tipped off. Later that summer after a softball game someone mentioned to her that she had great bracket picks and wondered what she did with the prize money? She said "what prize money?" Needless to say the guy never asked any of us to be in his pool again, and we conveniently forgot to ever invite him to poker games, fantasy football drafts or even 25-cent nassau golf outings. He was basically black-balled from anything involving wagering as our way of sending the message that we knew he rooked us. Nah, my neighbor made copies before the tourney and passed them out to everyone beforehand, so there were no shenanigans. The funny thing is that he missed 3 first round games, so its not like we expected him to go almost perfect the rest of the way. But he just started steamrolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bullpen Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Nah, my neighbor made copies before the tourney and passed them out to everyone beforehand, so there were no shenanigans. The funny thing is that he missed 3 first round games, so its not like we expected him to go almost perfect the rest of the way. But he just started steamrolling. I don't doubt your neighbor's motives at all. I was just sayin this guy sold us dime-bag of oregano and when we found out, we subtly took him to task on it. ... actually picked George Mason... gimme a fuggin break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 The WORST situation I've ever encountered was a guy I know was running a $10.00 pool once (no big deal), but he actually CHEATED so his "girlfriend" won. (we could never prove it, but she supposedly nailed the ENTIRE first round and just to make it look good she missed two in the second round) and then only lost a couple other games on down the road. Once she nailed the first round (this in the year George Mason ruined everyone's bracket) it was all over. She supposedly had them going to the final four!!! He collected all the sheets and we had no reason to assume he would give us the "stiffler" on it. She had it won before the finals even tipped off. Later that summer after a softball game someone mentioned to her that she had great bracket picks and wondered what she did with the prize money? She said "what prize money?" Needless to say the guy never asked any of us to be in his pool again, and we conveniently forgot to ever invite him to poker games, fantasy football drafts or even 25-cent nassau golf outings. He was basically black-balled from anything involving wagering as our way of sending the message that we knew he rooked us. Look, how many times do I have to apologize!! I'M SORRY!! LET IT GO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts