Are we underestimating Travis Henry's worth?

[seq004]

I think if you look at the past 2 years Travis is a top 10 back especially if you consider the line he has run behind. It's obvious to me that he wants out and I think it's very possible we could give him to Oakland for Jake Grove maybe straight up. If not I think we can get a second for him. I think most teams realize the situation with him and Willis and will recognize is worth when giving 100%. I know some will disagree but I honestly think he is somewhere between 7 and 10 if you eliminate his 4 games played this year. I like Shaud Williams as a back-up to Willis. Fire away!

[VABills]

No he is worth at late 2nd to early 3rd round pick. His value has not increased or decreased much becuase of the 4 games. Just remember Faulk only went for a 3rd and a 5th. Dillon a 2nd, and these guys are much better runners, plus do the other things a lot better than Travis ever will.

[stuckincincy]

I agree - a low 2nd would be the best they could get IMO.

 

I don't understand how Grove's name comes up. The Raiders seem to be getting good service out of Zereoue - no surprise to me, there.

[Bill from NYC]

No he is worth at late 2nd to early 3rd round pick.  His value has not increased or decreased much becuase of the 4 games.  Just remember Faulk only went for a 3rd and a 5th.  Dillon a 2nd, and these guys are much better runners, plus do the other things a lot better than Travis ever will.

69586[/snapback]

 

A late second or early 3rd could be possible because his salary is low. I am thinking that high salaries may have hurt the value of those you mentioned who are in fact clearly superior to Henry.

 

Also, rbs are usually not so hard to get. Terrell Davis was a sixth round pick. I am sure they may exist, but I dont know of teams who are using a sixth round LT. If so, my compliments to the GM.

[seq004]

No he is worth at late 2nd to early 3rd round pick.  His value has not increased or decreased much becuase of the 4 games.  Just remember Faulk only went for a 3rd and a 5th.  Dillon a 2nd, and these guys are much better runners, plus do the other things a lot better than Travis ever will.

69586[/snapback]

I would take Travis over Dillon any day. So again are we talking about the old productive Dillon or the moody not so productive Dillon?

[VABills]

I would take Travis over Dillon any day. So again are we talking about the old productive Dillon or the moody not so productive Dillon?

69732[/snapback]

You obviously don't watch football outside of Bills games. Dillon, maybe moody, but he is producing what NE needs him to. He catches well, blocks great and still runs well. I guess I am glad you're not our GM.

[seq004]

You obviously don't watch football outside of Bills games.  Dillon, maybe moody, but he is producing what NE needs him to.  He catches well, blocks great and still runs well.  I guess I am glad you're not our GM.

69736[/snapback]

Well, I live in Columbus and have watched his entire career or what was left of it. If that's YOUR opinion then so be it, you and TD would make a great team Travis almost tripled Dillon in yards last year and is 4 yrs the younger. There now go ahead and make excuses for last year genius

[Guest Guest]

Travis tripled him in yards because Travis played every game but one. Dillon hardly even saw the field last year.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff notes begin: TH's worth in draft picks is more a relative statement of what the market will provide than any judgment you an I have about how good he is as a player. For example, the post below explores a little the Milloy signing and the Bledsoe deal when assessing the worth of a player. Cliff notes end

 

 

The mistake here is that a players worth is not determined by some absolute judgement by us of how good of a player he is but by how much a particular team is willing to give up for him at a particular time.

 

If my number 1 RB has suffered a season ending injury and I am all set at other positions and I feel a starting RB will make the difference for me in wether I make the SB or not, then I might judge TH as easily being worth a 1st round choice in next year's draft, particularly if Oakland is offering Jake Grove straight up or someone else is offering a 2nd rounder.

 

 

Worth is a relative and not an absolute statement of value.

 

Supply andf demand rule the day. An example of this Lawyer Milloy. At the time he surprisingly entered the market because BB miscalculated whether he would take a cut an re-sign supply of recent Pro Bowl safeties was low (Milloy was the only one available). As it turned how, demand was also constrained because few teams had the cap room to sign him. However, their were enough teams around like the Bills who had not only an opening but a need after Cota and Battle had retired and cap room because we had set aside money just in case to sign Winfield.

 

The Bears also has a convergence of cap room and need and it only takes 2 teams tto make for a bidding war.

 

So what is TH worth. It pretty much depends upon the supply of starting RBs out there and the demand caused for RBs by failed players and injuries. Our judgments about how good he is comes into play, but mostly as a comparison to what other players are available at what cost and how does TH compare to them.

 

Another example is question of was Bledsoe worth what the Bills gave to NE for him? At the time the answer was clearly yes, because he cost the Bills nothing the year they got him as they only had to give up a future draft pick even if it was a first. A year after the trade the answer was still unequivocally yes, because he qualified for the Pro Bowl with his play and of even greater dollar cents import was a key to exciting fans after a 3-13 season. Even better for the Bills, the need for a replacement 1st round choice was part of the impetus for tagging PP and getting a 1st rounder for AT. Added further into this equation was that he cost the Pats big time to trade as his accelerated cap hit was a big part of not allowing them to make the playoffs as they could not sign marginal FAs under the salary cap after their SB win.

 

As time went on, Bledsoe simply sucked on the field and NE unburdened by the cap penalty last year won the SB. TD added insult to our injury by resigning Bledsoe and thus the trade and resign is now a clear loser for the Bills.

 

Suffice to say its more complicated than a simple judgment.

 

A players worth is not only relative in terms of the market at he time but is relative over time as events occur.

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

Henry is much younger than Dillon

[KD in CA]

Travis a top ten back? NFW. Not even close.

 

 

Edge

Martin

Brown

Lewis

Holmes

LT

Alexander

Green

Portis

Barlow

Faulk

McAlister

Rickey (if he's not high)

T. Jones

Tiki

 

 

There are 15 that are definitely better.

 

Dillon

Davis

Westbrook

Dunn

 

are closer, but still better than TH. And we're not even considering guys like K. Jones and Lee Suggs who are projected as their team's starters, or guys like L. Johnson and S. Jackson who are waiting on the bench for their turn.

 

There just aren't very many teams that would consider TH an upgrade from what they already have. Bills won't do better than a 3d round pick for him.

[VABills]

Travis a top ten back?  NFW.  Not even close.

Edge

Martin

Brown

Lewis

Holmes

LT

Alexander

Green

Portis

Barlow

Faulk

McAlister

Rickey (if he's not high)

T. Jones

Tiki

There are 15 that are definitely better.

 

Dillon

Davis

Westbrook

Dunn

 

are closer, but still better than TH.  And we're not even considering guys like K. Jones and Lee Suggs who are projected as their team's starters, or guys like L. Johnson and S. Jackson who are waiting on the bench for their turn.

 

There just aren't very many teams that would consider TH an upgrade from what they already have. Bills won't do better than a 3d round pick for him.

69864[/snapback]

 

Not sure that I would have little Wicki and Barlow right now ahead of him, but the rest I agree on. However, Mcgahee is better is my opinion, from what I have seen.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The caveat I'd add to your list is that the important thing is not where TH ranls among a ranking of all RBs but where TH ranks among a list of RBs who are available. Sure Edge is better but cannot be had until FA which I think is this coming off-season while TH can be had for a song for a year under his extended contract with the Bills. Martin isn't even available even after this season as are most of the RBs on your list.

 

Trading is not about a simple assessment of how good a player is, but it is a supply and demand question. Next Tuesday is the trading deadline and we (unfortunately) need to see a season ending injury to an RB with a questionable back-up who plays for a team with an SB shot with an RB.

 

If I'm NE and Dillon goes down, I'd trade a lot for a starting RB and if TH is the onlu one available bwecause WM does well, I'd trade my first in a hot second for him because the investment might meen an SB for me and saving Brady\s neck from Ds that certainly stop TH, but have to key on him to do it.

 

Trade worth is a statement of supply and demand and not simply an assessment f how good a player may or may not be.

 

 

Travis a top ten back?  NFW.  Not even close.

Edge

Martin

Brown

Lewis

Holmes

LT

Alexander

Green

Portis

Barlow

Faulk

McAlister

Rickey (if he's not high)

T. Jones

Tiki

There are 15 that are definitely better.

 

Dillon

Davis

Westbrook

Dunn

 

are closer, but still better than TH.  And we're not even considering guys like K. Jones and Lee Suggs who are projected as their team's starters, or guys like L. Johnson and S. Jackson who are waiting on the bench for their turn.

 

There just aren't very many teams that would consider TH an upgrade from what they already have. Bills won't do better than a 3d round pick for him.

69864[/snapback]

[Bear]

Travis a top ten back?  NFW.  Not even close.

Edge

Martin

Brown

Lewis

Holmes

LT

Alexander

Green

Portis

Barlow

Faulk

McAlister

Rickey (if he's not high)

T. Jones

Tiki

There are 15 that are definitely better.

 

Dillon

Davis

Westbrook

Dunn

 

69864[/snapback]

 

Nice list...did you print it directly off a fantasy football site?

Just becasue your opinion is ALL of those guys are better than Henry, doesn't make it so. Why are some people so biased torwards our players, and not others?

(Whether in the Pos. or the Neg.)

 

Using some names off your list, lets look at some very simple stats:

Using rankings: NA=not in top 30

2002

RUSHING YARDS /// RUSHING TD'S

 

(5) Henry /// (6) Henry

(7) Tiki /// (9) Tiki

(10) Dillon /// (19) Faulk

(12) Green /// (20) Martin

(15) Martin /// (21) Dillon

(23) Faulk /// (22) Davis

(27) Davis /// (23) Green

(NA) T. Jones /// (NA) T. Jones

(NA) Barlow /// (NA) Barlow

 

 

2003

 

RUSHING YARDS ///RUSHING TD'S

 

(2) Green /// (2) Green

(7) Davis /// (9) Henry

(11) Henry /// (10) Faulk

(12) Martin /// (15) Davis

(14) Tiki /// (23) Barlow

(18) Barlow /// (NA) Martin

(22) Faulk /// (NA) Tiki

(NA) Dillon /// (NA) Dillon

(NA) T. Jones /// (NA) T. Jones

 

These are very simple stats on 8 guys from your list that jumped out at me when I saw them. I didn't look up every person, though many of them would rank lower in these two categories than Henry.

Now, you can go much further into stats. You can do it all day for a week and not have all the possibilites worked out.

My point is, don't you think there is a coach out there who would like a Back that has been in the top 11 of rushing yards and TD's the past two seasons? He's had a pretty bad start to 04, but hell, the whole team has. Other GM's/Coaches know that. They know what he is capable of.

 

Now, do I think Travis is traded before next Tuesday? No. I don't think TD is even trying to trade him. But to say he is below 15 other backs in the league and on par with about 8 more is a little blind-sighted.

[Pete]

yes!

[Bear]

yes!

70622[/snapback]

 

Hmph...Lazy!