The Draft Quandary

[Pyrite Gal]

Looking at our depth chart and our moves so far this off-season it appears to me that all indications point to the most reasonable team building action on our part to be to trade down. This is tough though as one must have a partner to trade and its tough to go into a draft relying on somebody else to do something like trade to make it work.

 

The basic problem I see is that for our areas of greatest need (a credible passing threat from the offense and the ability to stop the run and the pass for our D) are likely not going to be greatly improved by anyone we can get at #11 in a greater degree than it might improved by someone we would acquire later.

 

Specifically:

 

1. DL- Even with acquisition of Stroud (due to his recent history of injuries) and the tradeoff of the failed Triplett going and the depth acquisition of Johnson, the rotation we are running means we could use an elite player on the DL. However, elite players from the draft are generally top 10 picks and it is doubtful a Dorsey or Gholston drops to us at #11.

 

2. CB- Many folks are still whining about us letting Clements walk away and us getting no compensation for him. Actually, us getting compensation for someone like Peerless leaving was the exception rather than the rule actually and by rule and by practice loss of FAs without compensation is the norm actually. Looking for a shutdown CB makes even less sense for us given the D scheme we use where the CB actually is used primarily as a short cover and run contain guy in the Cover 2 and it makes little football sense for us to expend our limited team resources drafting a shutdown corner in the 1st round who will not be used that way primarily in our D. The Bills have made a habit of taking players based on quality rather than need late on the first day (Neither Youbouty or Edwards were need picks at the time) but it really would seem like an incredible waste of resources for us to take a CB in the 1st (or even the 2nd) round. If your interest is better downfield coverage acquiring a better safety is a better place for us to improve this facet of the game than wasting money on a shutdown CB, unless you want to change our whole D style of play which I do not think Jauron/Fewell are likely to do at all.

 

3. WR- Particularly with the cut of PP, there is a glaring need for a #2 WR. In fact, we held out the promise of becoming a pass happy team and now with Evans as a definite #1, Parrish as a #3 at best and Reed as a insufficient #2 we could actually stand to need two WRs this off-season. The good news is that this draft is generally seen as deep in WR talent. There does not appear to be a player worth taking with the #11 choice. However, if we can trade down and get a player who merits a low 20s pick (Kelly for example) and also get another WR with a second pick I think we would meet a lot of our needs.

 

All in all I hope we can trade down as I doubt any of the DL players worth taking will drop to #11, there is no CB worth the expenditure for us in the first two rounds, and that there is no WR worth taking until about pick 20.

[Captain Hindsight]

Looking at our depth chart and our moves so far this off-season it appears to me that all indications point to the most reasonable team building action on our part to be to trade down. This is tough though as one must have a partner to trade and its tough to go into a draft relying on somebody else to do something like trade to make it work.

 

The basic problem I see is that for our areas of greatest need (a credible passing threat from the offense and the ability to stop the run and the pass for our D) are likely not going to be greatly improved by anyone we can get at #11 in a greater degree than it might improved by someone we would acquire later.

 

Specifically:

 

1. DL- Even with acquisition of Stroud (due to his recent history of injuries) and the tradeoff of the failed Triplett going and the depth acquisition of Johnson, the rotation we are running means we could use an elite player on the DL. However, elite players from the draft are generally top 10 picks and it is doubtful a Dorsey or Gholston drops to us at #11.

 

2. CB- Many folks are still whining about us letting Clements walk away and us getting no compensation for him. Actually, us getting compensation for someone like Peerless leaving was the exception rather than the rule actually and by rule and by practice loss of FAs without compensation is the norm actually. Looking for a shutdown CB makes even less sense for us given the D scheme we use where the CB actually is used primarily as a short cover and run contain guy in the Cover 2 and it makes little football sense for us to expend our limited team resources drafting a shutdown corner in the 1st round who will not be used that way primarily in our D. The Bills have made a habit of taking players based on quality rather than need late on the first day (Neither Youbouty or Edwards were need picks at the time) but it really would seem like an incredible waste of resources for us to take a CB in the 1st (or even the 2nd) round. If your interest is better downfield coverage acquiring a better safety is a better place for us to improve this facet of the game than wasting money on a shutdown CB, unless you want to change our whole D style of play which I do not think Jauron/Fewell are likely to do at all.

 

3. WR- Particularly with the cut of PP, there is a glaring need for a #2 WR. In fact, we held out the promise of becoming a pass happy team and now with Evans as a definite #1, Parrish as a #3 at best and Reed as a insufficient #2 we could actually stand to need two WRs this off-season. The good news is that this draft is generally seen as deep in WR talent. There does not appear to be a player worth taking with the #11 choice. However, if we can trade down and get a player who merits a low 20s pick (Kelly for example) and also get another WR with a second pick I think we would meet a lot of our needs.

 

All in all I hope we can trade down as I doubt any of the DL players worth taking will drop to #11, there is no CB worth the expenditure for us in the first two rounds, and that there is no WR worth taking until about pick 20.

Maybe we should just pass on the pick. Worked for the vikes

[Steely Dan]

Looking at our depth chart and our moves so far this off-season it appears to me that all indications point to the most reasonable team building action on our part to be to trade down. This is tough though as one must have a partner to trade and its tough to go into a draft relying on somebody else to do something like trade to make it work.

 

The basic problem I see is that for our areas of greatest need (a credible passing threat from the offense and the ability to stop the run and the pass for our D) are likely not going to be greatly improved by anyone we can get at #11 in a greater degree than it might improved by someone we would acquire later.

 

Specifically:

 

1. DL- Even with acquisition of Stroud (due to his recent history of injuries) and the tradeoff of the failed Triplett going and the depth acquisition of Johnson, the rotation we are running means we could use an elite player on the DL. However, elite players from the draft are generally top 10 picks and it is doubtful a Dorsey or Gholston drops to us at #11.

 

2. CB- Many folks are still whining about us letting Clements walk away and us getting no compensation for him. Actually, us getting compensation for someone like Peerless leaving was the exception rather than the rule actually and by rule and by practice loss of FAs without compensation is the norm actually. Looking for a shutdown CB makes even less sense for us given the D scheme we use where the CB actually is used primarily as a short cover and run contain guy in the Cover 2 and it makes little football sense for us to expend our limited team resources drafting a shutdown corner in the 1st round who will not be used that way primarily in our D. The Bills have made a habit of taking players based on quality rather than need late on the first day (Neither Youbouty or Edwards were need picks at the time) but it really would seem like an incredible waste of resources for us to take a CB in the 1st (or even the 2nd) round. If your interest is better downfield coverage acquiring a better safety is a better place for us to improve this facet of the game than wasting money on a shutdown CB, unless you want to change our whole D style of play which I do not think Jauron/Fewell are likely to do at all.

 

3. WR- Particularly with the cut of PP, there is a glaring need for a #2 WR. In fact, we held out the promise of becoming a pass happy team and now with Evans as a definite #1, Parrish as a #3 at best and Reed as a insufficient #2 we could actually stand to need two WRs this off-season. The good news is that this draft is generally seen as deep in WR talent. There does not appear to be a player worth taking with the #11 choice. However, if we can trade down and get a player who merits a low 20s pick (Kelly for example) and also get another WR with a second pick I think we would meet a lot of our needs.

 

All in all I hope we can trade down as I doubt any of the DL players worth taking will drop to #11, there is no CB worth the expenditure for us in the first two rounds, and that there is no WR worth taking until about pick 20.

 

I disagree with the CB thought. The Bills have to have a big fast CB to take on the Randy Moss' and Terell Owens' of the league if they want to win a SB. A great CB and upfront pressure will make the Bills D very hard to beat and that's how I like it!! I agree with you on WR and DL though.

 

As far as trading down goes a lot of people think Dallas will be a trading partner but they want McFadden and he'll be long gone. I don't see them trading down with anyone else.

[K-9]

If they don't trade down and get a player they're targeting (and expecting) to be there later on then just take the best player available. Can NEVER have enough good players, regardless of position.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ.]

I disagree with the CB thought. The Bills have to have a big fast CB to take on the Randy Moss' and Terell Owens' of the league if they want to win a SB. A great CB and upfront pressure will make the Bills D very hard to beat and that's how I like it!! I agree with you on WR and DL though.

 

As far as trading down goes a lot of people think Dallas will be a trading partner but they want McFadden and he'll be long gone. I don't see them trading down with anyone else.

OK I am going to try this from memory so it may be off a little. Since 93 DB taken in the first round by the Bills. JD Williams, Henry Jones, Thomas Smith,Jeff Burris, Antwain Winfield, Nate Clements, Donte Whitner. So almost 50% of the last 15 drafts we have gone secondary, and I belive only Henry Jones played past his first contract(Clements recieved the Franchise tag so he played one year more, and I cant remember about Smith). I am not saying this team does not need another CB, I am just saying not in the first round again.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

OK I am going to try this from memory so it may be off a little. Since 93 DB taken in the first round by the Bills. JD Williams, Henry Jones, Thomas Smith,Jeff Burris, Antwain Winfield, Nate Clements, Donte Whitner. So almost 50% of the last 15 drafts we have gone secondary, and I belive only Henry Jones played past his first contract(Clements recieved the Franchise tag so he played one year more, and I cant remember about Smith). I am not saying this team does not need another CB, I am just saying not in the first round again.

Only quibble is that JD Williams was in the 1990 draft. We may no draft one (CB) in the first round but there is no depth so we at least need two to three "warm" bodies to give us some depth.

[Lofton80]

One thing never mentioned in the cb debate is their role as a run defender. The cover 2 requires them to be tacklers and McGee is terrible at it. Not sure on Greer as well. I think we take a cb in the first 3 rounds.

[BillsVet]

PG, I'd add that there are merely spare parts for TE's. The common denominator among playoff caliber teams is having that pass catching TE who poses matchup problems for opposing secondaries down the seam.

 

The Bills have not had a reliable TE in quite some time, and it appears nothing will change this season. Teyo Johnson is a WR in a larger frame without much semblance of blocking skills. Courtney Anderson appears to be bigger, but one wonders why he couldn't make it in Atlanta or Detroit. Schouman has receiving ability, but remains small for the position in the NFL. Royal is the best option, though one with poor hands and an inability to stretch the field. Matt Murphy and Tim Massaquoi are merely campers.

[Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail]

If they don't trade down and get a player they're targeting (and expecting) to be there later on then just take the best player available. Can NEVER have enough good players, regardless of position.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I don't know about that. The best player available at 11 might be considered Rashard Mendenhall. Clearly, we're not going to take another RB.

[ax4782]

PG, I'd add that there are merely spare parts for TE's. The common denominator among playoff caliber teams is having that pass catching TE who poses matchup problems for opposing secondaries down the seam.

 

The Bills have not had a reliable TE in quite some time, and it appears nothing will change this season. Teyo Johnson is a WR in a larger frame without much semblance of blocking skills. Courtney Anderson appears to be bigger, but one wonders why he couldn't make it in Atlanta or Detroit. Schouman has receiving ability, but remains small for the position in the NFL. Royal is the best option, though one with poor hands and an inability to stretch the field. Matt Murphy and Tim Massaquoi are merely campers.

 

Absolutely right on. The Bills need to pick up a talented TE in the draft. If Buffalo can get a top WR in the first round and a receiving threat at TE like Fred Davis, Kellen Davis, or Kellar then our passing attack will be greatly improved. Frankly, that is where the weakness is on offense, as our rushing attack was 15th last year.

 

Also, I think Buffalo will take a CB, or possibly two, but it will be in the last four picks, not the first four. Buffalo is also likely to sign James who was in for a visit this week, which should help with the depth issues. Expect Ashton Youboty to get more playing time this year to see if he deserves to remain on the team as a nickel corner.

 

And Whitner and Simpson have definitely lived up to their potential. Simpson got hurt, but he was playing dominant football at the FS position before the injury. Whitner has been one of the few consistent bright spots on this defense since he was signed two years ago. Buffalo needs to lock these two players up to long term deals next year, BEFORE they reach their FA seasons.

[Pyrite Gal]

PG, I'd add that there are merely spare parts for TE's. The common denominator among playoff caliber teams is having that pass catching TE who poses matchup problems for opposing secondaries down the seam.

 

The Bills have not had a reliable TE in quite some time, and it appears nothing will change this season. Teyo Johnson is a WR in a larger frame without much semblance of blocking skills. Courtney Anderson appears to be bigger, but one wonders why he couldn't make it in Atlanta or Detroit. Schouman has receiving ability, but remains small for the position in the NFL. Royal is the best option, though one with poor hands and an inability to stretch the field. Matt Murphy and Tim Massaquoi are merely campers.

The way we are handling the TE situation is one reason why I think we may be better off trying to create a model of St. Louis Rams east. The Rams used the TE a bit differently this past season after they acquired a stud like McMichael, but even he logged a below average number of catches compared to some of his previous production in a Rams offense that has historically not used the TE as a receiver despite the fact they were throwing the ball all over the place.

 

Part of my sense that we might go for 2 WRs in this seemingly WR deep draft is that it will allow us to use more 3 WR scheme and empty backfield sets using Parrish as a wideout with the 3 WR draftees.

[Pyrite Gal]

I disagree with the CB thought. The Bills have to have a big fast CB to take on the Randy Moss' and Terell Owens' of the league if they want to win a SB. A great CB and upfront pressure will make the Bills D very hard to beat and that's how I like it!! I agree with you on WR and DL though.

 

As far as trading down goes a lot of people think Dallas will be a trading partner but they want McFadden and he'll be long gone. I don't see them trading down with anyone else.

Unfortunately for the next year or two if we are gonna count on a rookie CB to somehow stop Moss or Owens we are likely gonna lose. Any CB that we get at #11 is not likely to prove to be an elite player (which I think of as a player good enough to command a top 10 choice) who we should have any expectation will be ready on day 1 to cover the best vets in the league.

 

Again this is not to mention the fact that typically our CBs will not be covering a Moss or Owens all over the field unless we choose to alter our whole D scheme for these players. The simple likelihood is that if we want to hold Moss's production down the best investments for us to make are 1: penetrating DL players who are going to pressure Brady on every throw. 2. A hard rushing good tackling LB who like Kawika Mitchell in the SB cannot only put Brady on his butt, but also is stout enough against the run to make 3rd down a must pass for the Pats rather than giving them a run/pass option to play with, 3. good safeties as they are gonna have the primary downfield pass D responsibility because in the Cover 2, the CB is playing the short zone.

 

Even after these 3 D choices which are better at holding down Moss production than a shut down corner, the Bills are likely better off blunting Moss by keeping him off the field by picking a WR or a TE who will help them avoid 3 and outs.

 

Picking a stud CB is simply low on our priority list for combating the threats posed by Moss or other stud WRs.