meazza Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Maybe me or others... But, that is not the averge people... The masses... Are they even in the market? They pick up the vibes just being a consumer and seeing the price of milk and gas on the rise... No? Do they even have anything... Except consuming...?? I think we are analyzing this way too much... Maybe. I enjoy analyzing this though. It's what I'd eventually like to do for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 I love the way people freak that the market is down 16% since October but nobody is saying anything about the fact that the S&P was up 80% from March of 2003 to this past October. Are all of you new to this investing stuff?? Sure, markets go up and markets go down. But there's one big difference this time. The exotic derivative instruments that nobody--even their creators--fully understand or know how to value. We're not talking about a normal earnings-driven investment cycle. This time it's credit and counterparty risk, which mean a lot of investment vehicles can go to zero in a matters of weeks if the liquidity squeeze gets worse or the Fed can't intervene sufficiently. If the commercial paper market get's fugged up, even the blue chips will be hurting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Sure, markets go up and markets go down. But there's one big difference this time. The exotic derivative instruments that nobody--even their creators--fully understand or know how to value. We're not talking about a normal earnings-driven investment cycle. This time it's credit and counterparty risk, which mean a lot of investment vehicles can go to zero in a matters of weeks if the liquidity squeeze gets worse or the Fed can't intervene sufficiently. If the commercial paper market get's fugged up, even the blue chips will be hurting. It's always different this time isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 It's always different this time isn't it. Not different, just more severe. There have been numerous credit crunches in our history, 1998, LTCM and the Russian default come immediately to mind. This one just promises to be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 It's always different this time isn't it. Way more leverage and intangible assets this time. "Credit crunch" used to mean that banks pulled back on making conventional loans to businesses and consumers. That was the normal ebb and flow of commerce, which the Fed had a great deal of ability to control. This time it means having enough liquidity from bank and non-bank sources to meet the short-term re-funding of debt used to leverage huge derivitives bets, as well as the market-accounting treatment of asset-backed securities that can change on a dime. It's 'no country for old men' territory as economic cycles go. The Perils of Leverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Not different, just more severe. There have been numerous credit crunches in our history, 1998, LTCM and the Russian default come immediately to mind. This one just promises to be more widespread. I'm not talking in terms of the severity of the credit issue this time. I'm talking in general with financial panics in general in this country. Whether it's the crash of '29, recession of the 70's, the real estate crash of the 90's or the tech bubble of the 2000's they've all included headlines that created panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 This is really an excellent article on the whole Bear mess, if anyone is interested... http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 How in God's name can you find a fund that doesn't have some sort of link to the US market mess that is going on at the moment? The question is: Why would you want to? In reality, this kind of stuff is where smart people make a ton of money because there are bargains galore. It's funny to watch people throw money at a red hot market and then act surprised when stuff like this happens and the lose their asses. Would you go to the store if they advertised: EVERYTHING MUST GO! MARKED UP 40%! That's pretty much what continually goes on in the financial markets. Now is a great time to buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 I love the way people freak that the market is down 16% since October but nobody is saying anything about the fact that the S&P was up 80% from March of 2003 to this past October. Are all of you new to this investing stuff?? It always amuses me to watch the reaction of the retirees and investors who gather at the the cigar store and watch CNBC. It's like they are watching a football game, for Christ's sake. And, the CNBC coverage makes it seem as if every gain and loss is a life-defining event (of course that's what they want to promote as it helps viewership). Having worked the bar at Yacht Clubs and Country Clubs, and worked with very high net worth people in television, they almost ALL act like they are "new to this investing stuff". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Way more leverage and intangible assets this time. "Credit crunch" used to mean that banks pulled back on making conventional loans to businesses and consumers. That was the normal ebb and flow of commerce, which the Fed had a great deal of ability to control. This time it means having enough liquidity from bank and non-bank sources to meet the short-term re-funding of debt used to leverage huge derivitives bets, as well as the market-accounting treatment of asset-backed securities that can change on a dime. It's 'no country for old men' territory as economic cycles go. The Perils of Leverage There is, however, a solution. Resolution Trust Company circa 2008. Thats about where I think this is headed. Resolution Trust Company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Having worked the bar at Yacht Clubs and Country Clubs, and worked with very high net worth people in television, they almost ALL act like they are "new to this investing stuff". That's because they've "got people" for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 There is, however, a solution. Resolution Trust Company circa 2008. Thats about where I think this is headed. Resolution Trust Company At some point--probably after the fall elections--that's very likely to happen. The Fed's acting as the Little Dutch Boy right now, but ultimately the Treasury Department's going to have to step in and commit funds to bailout insolvent U.S. asset backed securities issuers/holders. One thing to think about is that this is not exclusively a U.S. problem. Due to globalization, many of the European and Asian investors who gorged on mortgage backed securities in 2005-06 are going to be left holding the bag. Opps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 The question is: Why would you want to? In reality, this kind of stuff is where smart people make a ton of money because there are bargains galore. It's funny to watch people throw money at a red hot market and then act surprised when stuff like this happens and the lose their asses. Would you go to the store if they advertised: EVERYTHING MUST GO! MARKED UP 40%! That's pretty much what continually goes on in the financial markets. Now is a great time to buy. For sure... but that's if you're able to spot the bargain. I mean the example I was giving was of someone who just simply trusted their banker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Gotta (love A) Love Supreme: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme http://youtube.com/watch?v=92T4DQqQApE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Gotta (love A) Love Supreme: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme http://youtube.com/watch?v=92T4DQqQApE beautiful stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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