What happens if war with Iran breaks out?

[Adam]

My uneducated opinion is that they cut off our oil supply and our economy severely gets damaged. Having been pretty sick for about three months, I am too busy getting caught up to do any research into this- can anyone either validate or shoot that down for me (I have a feeling I will see a bit of both)

[PastaJoe]

A couple of speedboats packed with explosives targeted towards a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices would go through the clouds (they're already through the roof).

[blzrul]

The question you have to ask is why are oil prices through the roof? Since a good deal of the problem here in the US is our aging and insufficient refinery system, the price of oil is only partly to blame for gas prices. A big part, sure, but not all.

 

What happened to all that Iraqi oil? If we're not getting it, where is it going and more importantly where is the revenue going?

 

I think the current mortgage "meltdown" as it's called is having a domino effect as oil future get bid up, it's an election year with all the uncertainty that entails, there's one war not going anywhere and a bunch of morons calling for another one, and of course it's the last year the Bushista buddies get to rape in, er I mean RAKE in, the obscene profits that they've enjoyed since he took office. I'm not sure how you can separate it all out...

 

But in the end, I paid $3.57 a gallon today. Good think I only need to fill up every 4-6 weeks.

[OCinBuffalo]

A couple of speedboats packed with explosives targeted towards a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices would go through the clouds (they're already through the roof).

Are you kidding? Seriously are you kidding? Speedboats? If we are in a real shooting war with Iran those speedboats die 20 feet out of the harbor/dock.

 

For the OP:

1. First off, the Saudis would never allow Iran to be the potential cause for the break-up of OPEC and an end to their power. A shooting war with Iran ends OPEC permanently. I will explain further if need be. Suffice it to say that most of Saudi Arabia's power comes from being able to moderate the rest of the Muslim states in return for us being their entire armed service. It's a long story and it ends with the Saudis doing everything in their power to make sure we don't fight a real war with Iran.

2. Second, Russia will almost certainly try to intercede. The last thing they need is another customer of their military hardware going down. Why do you think they were against the Iraq war? Because of some moral stance? Please, from a country that has invaded 40 others? They didn't want to lose a customer, period. Now I don't know how much they will try to do, but they will probably do what they did with Iraq = sell them anti-stealth radar, and whatever guns they can get their hands on.

3. China is pissed off because now we have even more control of the area but their won't be much they can do about it

4. Europe plays its game of "being pissed" but actually loving the fact that we are again taking care of one of the problems they left the world since they were in charge, just like Iraq. They get to say all kinds of stuff, but actually get to benefit from the war, and still don't have much of an effect.

 

In all cases, our oil supply isn't going anywhere. Kinda helpful to have all those divisions already in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar now isn't it?.

 

Here's what I would hope we do:

5. We absolutely crush some of Iran's armed services and all of their security police/"Republican Guard" types. Hopefully we do a lot of it with artillery and air, and hopefully we don't try and blitzkrieg through leaving our supply lines and command and control in disarray like last time. We need to use a "castling" strategy and keep drawing their army into a pitched battle for each "castle" we capture. This way, there will be no insurgents to kill, since we already killed them all on the battlefield. Against conventional wisdom, pitched battles, given our military superiority, are actually the best way to limit our casualties. We also don't care if the enemy "melts" away, because we want them to be sent back out for the next pitched battle. We want them to surrender, in uniform, so that we can treat them like prisoners of war, and so that we can hold them until the war is truly over.

6. We use our "castles" to secure and to create solid governmental services, infrastructure and organization and we get the populace to at least elect a local government before we move on to the next "castle". This way we leave an area that is secure, can police itself with a little help, and can provide basic services so that the people have a least some faith in the government before we move on.

7. For each of the pitched battles less and less Iranians show up, ultimately ending in no one showing up, ultimately ending the political will of the opposition to continue, permanently killing the crazies that do show up, and permanently ending the power of the Mullahs to command people to do anything.

[VRWC]

My uneducated opinion is that they cut off our oil supply and our economy severely gets damaged. Having been pretty sick for about three months, I am too busy getting caught up to do any research into this- can anyone either validate or shoot that down for me (I have a feeling I will see a bit of both)

 

uneducated is right. We get no oil from Iran. none.

[Chilly]

uneducated is right. We get no oil from Iran. none.

 

Lets go to war then!

[/dev/null]

uneducated is right. We get no oil from Iran. none.

We may not get oil from Iran, but they will be able to disrupt the shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. Plus future traders are skittish about any problems in the Gulf and looking for any reason to make a quick buck. So oil prices will soar even higher

[VRWC]

If we drilled our own damn oil we wouldn't have this big a problem.

[boomerjamhead]

We may not get oil from Iran, but they will be able to disrupt the shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. Plus future traders are skittish about any problems in the Gulf and looking for any reason to make a quick buck. So oil prices will soar even higher

 

Wrong. We are prepared, and have been prepared to control the shipping lanes (surface and sub-surface) and airspace in and around Hormuz for a while. Sleep easy tonight because we can do this.

[DC Tom]

uneducated is right. We get no oil from Iran. none.

 

Because if they pull their oil off the market, it'll have no effect on the price we pay, because we don't buy their oil.

[DC Tom]

Wrong. We are prepared, and have been prepared to control the shipping lanes (surface and sub-surface) and airspace in and around Hormuz for a while. Sleep easy tonight because we can do this.

 

In the markets, perception counts more than reality. And the perception is: the US military is spread too thin, and the Iranians only need one lucky shot against a supertanker in the straits to shut down the flow of oil from the Middle East.

 

I know you're right. It just doesn't matter.

[ExiledInIllinois]

In the markets, perception counts more than reality. And the perception is: the US military is spread too thin, and the Iranians only need one lucky shot against a supertanker in the straits to shut down the flow of oil from the Middle East.

 

I know you're right. It just doesn't matter.

 

What is the chance on that lucky shot?

 

I hoping there is absolutely no "seams" when protecting the straits... Or is there?

[Dwight Drane]

Here is the problem, our own economic meltdown may change the way other countries think. Instead of the Arabs and China trying to prop up our dollar, they may sense that we are going to hit "reset" on our debt levels and beat us to the punch. For anyone that doubted the real mess that is going on behind the scenes, this past week should clarify things. We would have lost one of our major banks today, and with it, $1 trillion in swaps would have gone to zero. There is NO market for most of the debt out there. It is up to the Fed to print money and take on all the garbage. This week alone they have fesssed up to hundreds of billions in monopoly money, and there is plenty going on through proxies as well. FDIC, the agency that is supposed to insure our banks, is floating packages of loans outside the banking sector in hopes of saving some of these institutions. In the best case scenario, this is going to cause serious inflation to our economy as a whole, minus housing, and keep oil flying high. In the worst case, the US is going to go bankrupt.

 

If I am in OPEC, I take Hugo Chavez's advice and flip to Euros. If I am China....what would ordinarily look like a death wish could be a brilliant move. I make an agreement with Iran and Russia, sell my dollars, stop sending goods to the US, and watch the fun begin. At the same time, Iran and Syria with bankroll from Russian arsenal, go into Israel from north and south with Hamas and Hezbullah. The US gets pulled into a full scale battle and borders in the region collapse. US military is stretched to the limits, while back home the recession is turning into a depression, and we have to try and manufacture ourselves out of it. With limited oil, and limited resources, we are in tough. China chokes off it's growth, and citizens are in trouble, but thanks to US profits going straight into the military the past 15 years, China takes Taiwan back. There is nothing the US can do now to help without an end game taking place. China now has access to cheap oil, the Muslims take out most of Israel, and with the US obliterated economically and stretched militarily, Putin can now reach back into Europe.

 

Condi Rice was in the Middle East to tell Syria that we have a few nukes trained on Damascus if they get any funny ideas about going into Israel. Cheney was in Oman to shore up defense plans to keep the canal open and visited Saudi Arabia to say "pump it up!" I have a funny feeling the next 18 or so months are going to be the craziest times my generation has ever seen. Nobody is going to claim boredom. Hopefully the scenario I pose is just a nightmare that never happens, but the fact that Bush did a little tap dance routine a few weeks ago on the front lawn of the White House while waiting for John McCain shows just how punch drunk he is. As always, smok'em if you got'em.

[Booster4324]

Are you kidding? Seriously are you kidding? Speedboats? If we are in a real shooting war with Iran those speedboats die 20 feet out of the harbor/dock.

 

Hell, in a stand up fight the USCG could take out the Iranian Navy barring their subs (and could probably take them too). The problem with the scenario is the asymmetrical nature of the combat. All it takes is one speed boat and one supertanker. Of course, I would imagine there would be international repercussions for Iran if they did this. With their backs against the wall though...

[DC Tom]

What is the chance on that lucky shot?

 

I hoping there is absolutely no "seams" when protecting the straits... Or is there?

 

Low, by definition.

 

 

In the Balkans ten years ago, the Serbs shot down an F-117. The Iraqis managed a few air-to-air kills in Desert Storm. In a region like the Persian Gulf, where the ROE would necessarily have to be tight, there would be operational gaps that the Iranians could identify and try to take advantage of. There are always "seams". If you can't accept risk, don't fight wars.

[Adam]

uneducated is right. We get no oil from Iran. none.

Which is why I am asking..............

[Philly McButterpants]

In the markets, perception counts more than reality. And the perception is: the US military is spread too thin, and the Iranians only need one lucky shot against a supertanker in the straits to shut down the flow of oil from the Middle East.

 

I know you're right. It just doesn't matter.

 

 

How does taking out one tanker cut off the flow of oil from the Gulf? What motivation does Iran have to shoot a member of OPEC in the a$$?

[DC Tom]

How does taking out one tanker cut off the flow of oil from the Gulf? What motivation does Iran have to shoot a member of OPEC in the a$$?

 

It doesn't. It disrupts it, because oil transport is a fragile industry and risk-averse industry. "Shut down" was a poor choice of words on my part...but hit one tanker in the Straits of Hormuz, and the world will perceive it as a "failure" of the US to "secure oil supply", and supply will drop and prices will skyrocket until the US can prove it can "guarantee" the safety of tankers.

 

And Iran doesn't really care about the Arab states. The Arab states care, but only because they're rather afraid of the Iranians. Arabs and Persians don't get along too well.

[swede316]

War with Iran right now wouldn't be a smart move...Opening up a third front would not be wise. It would almost certainly call for the use of nuclear bunker busters to take out Irans nuclear facilities.

 

I can see a one off attack on Iran using nuclear bunker busters but no ground war (would almost certainly require a huge war effort..and the draft).

 

Any naval engagement the Iranians might seek would be over in minutes. In fact the first targets might be their Kilo class submarines and their air defense sites and their silkworm sites. We could easily cripple Iran in days but the political fallout might not be worth it.

[Peter]

7. For each of the pitched battles less and less Iranians show up, ultimately ending in no one showing up, ultimately ending the political will of the opposition to continue, permanently killing the crazies that do show up, and permanently ending the power of the Mullahs to command people to do anything.

 

You make some interesting points. This is not one of them. Do you remember the Iran/Iraq war?

 

There are plenty of people in Iran that are itching to meet Allah sooner rather than later.

 

Iran has changed somewhat over the years. There is a younger generation that would like to reach out to the

West. We had our opportunity when Khatami was pm. We pissed that away.

 

I dare say that the surest way to unify the Iranian people behind Ahmadinejad would be to start bombing Iran.

 

Iran presents some interesting challenges and opportunities. W's administration has not been particularly skillful in dealing with Iran.