jri111 Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 **Disclaimer: I started this analysis a few weeks ago with the idea of writing a detailed analysis of the top four to five linebackers in the upcoming NFL Draft. However, day after day, I added more player and more analysis until it morphed into this final project: A comprehensive 14 page (as a word document at least) analysis of all the linebacker projected to go in the first 4 rounds of the NFL Draft. I apologize for the length, but if you're able to wade through it I think you will find it pretty informative! here's a link to where i originally posted this: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/story/2007/4/19/185328/484 The 2007 NFL Draft is just over a week away and Bills fans everywhere are anxiously awaiting to see who the newest members of the Buffalo Bills will be. The Bills are a young team on the rise, but to stay competitive need to fill many holes on draft day. Perhaps no hole is larger then at linebacker. With the loss of London Fletcher-Baker to free agency and the trade of Takeo Spikes to Philadelphia, Buffalo will probably be looking to add at least two linebackers to their roster during the NFL Draft (most likely in the first 4 rounds). What follows below is a comprehensive analysis all of the linebackers graded in the first 4 rounds in the upcoming draft. Note: Group 1 consists of potential first round linebackers while Group 2 contains linebackers projected to go between rounds 2 and 4. Group 1 (Potential Round 1 Linebackers): Patrick Willis (Mississippi) - MLB (OLB) Paul Posluszny (Penn State) - OLB (MLB) Lawrence Timmons (Florida State) – OLB Jon Beason (Miami) – OLB (MLB) Group 2: (Later Round Linebackers): Brandon Siler (Florida) - MLB (OLB) - (projected: 2) David Harris (Michigan) – MLB - (projected: 2-3) Stewart Bradley (Nebraska) – OLB – (projected: 2-3) Justin Durant (Hampton) – MLB (OLB) - (projected: 2-3) Tim Shaw (Penn State) – OLB – (projected: 3) Buster Davis (Florida State) – MLB – (projected: 3) Quincy Black (New Mexico) – OLB – (projected: 3) Stephen Nicholas (South Florida) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Rufus Alexander (Oklahoma) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Michael Okwo (Stanford) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Zak DeOssie (Brown) – MLB - (projected: 4) Earl Everett (Florida) – OLB (ILB) – (projected: 4) Let’s start by looking at the player’s strengths and weaknesses: Group 1: Patrick Willis - Mississippi – MLB (OLB) (6'1 ", 242) – ESPN Grade: 95 Strengths: Aggressiveness Speed (sideline-to-sideline pursuit linebacker) Tackling technique Very instinctive Areas of Improvement: Lateral movement Pass coverage skills May need to add some weight Plays too high at times Durability – Lots of lingering injuries Intangibles: Leadership Intensity High character Versatile – can play more than one position Best suited for MLB in the cover-2 Gets a deep drop in zone and displays above average range Paul Posluszny: Penn State – OLB (MLB) - (6'1 ", 238) – ESPN Grade: 92 Strengths: Aggressiveness Discipline Very Instinctive (good angles) Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage skills Durability (Knee) Could add weight to his frame Intangibles: Intensity Smart Leadership High character Versatile – can play more than one position Best suited for WLB in cover-2 (size is adequate, but not elite for SLB) Great range in zone coverage Lawrence Timmons: Florida State – OLB - (6'0 ", 234) – EPSN Grade: 93 Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism (sideline-to-sideline verses run) Change of direction (fluid hips) Good in coverage Areas of Improvements: Discipline Instincts – does not diagnose plays quick enough/lack ideal awareness in coverage Raw – one year of starting experience Intangibles: Quick and Explosive Good pass rusher Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Very good range in coverage when he diagnoses the play quickly enough Jon Beason: Miami – OLB – (6'0 ", 237) – ESPN Grade: 89 Strengths: Athleticism Foot Quickness Change of Direction Instinctive and aggressive Good open field tackler Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Lacks elite height Lacks elite range in coverage Durability (shoulder and knee injuries) Stiffness in hips Intangibles: Great special-teamer Leadership High motor Versatile – has played all three positions in college, but because of size probable suited for WLB in cover-2 defense He displays adequate awareness and range in zone coverage Group 2: Brandon Siler: Florida – ILB - (6'1 ", 241) - ESPN Grade: 77 – Projected: 2 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Change of Direction Strength Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage skills Instincts – poor angles Intangibles: Intensity High motor Plays with mean streak Versatile – can fit in a number of defensive system Lacks ideal range in zone coverage David Harris: Michigan – ILB - (6'2 ", 243) - ESPN Grade: 82 – Projected: 2/3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism Instincts Good run defender Areas for Improvement: Pass Coverage Skills Shedding Ability Durability Intangibles: High motor Best suited for ILB in 3-4 defense Best suited for MLB in cover-2 Struggles in man coverage, but better in zone Steward Bradley: Nebraska – OLB - (6'3 ", 254) –ESPN Grade: 83 – projected: 2/3 Strengths: Size Strength Toughness Instincts (good angles/always in position) Areas of Improvement: Speed (lacks sideline-to-sideline range) Lateral movements Pass Coverage Skills Inefficient: over pursues Durability (knee) Intangibles: High-motor Best suited For ILB in 3-4 Defense Best suited for SLB in the cover-2 Gets good depth and reads the quarterback's eyes when asked to drop into zone coverage Justin Durant: Hampton – OLB – (6'0 ", 230) – ESPN Grade: 79 – Projected: 2/3 Rd. Strengths: Discipline Instincts Lateral movements Speed Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Plays too high Size Intensity Developmental – may not be a first year starter Intangibles: Special team potential High motor Leadership Versatile Tim Shaw: Penn State – OLB – (6'1 ", 236) – ESPN Grade: 75 – projected – 3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism Instincts – reads and reacts well and good angles Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage ability Shedding ability Size A bit Stiff in hips Intangibles: Versatile – has played OLB, ILB, and DE Good motor Smart Leadership High character He reads quarterbacks' eyes well in zone coverage and gets good depth in his drop Buster Davis: Florida State – ILB - (5'9 ", 239) – ESPN Grade: 72 – Projected: 3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Foot Quickness Areas for Improvement: Size Strength Playmaking ability in coverage Intangibles: Could be good special teamer Intensity Quicker then fast Best suited for MLB in cover-2 Compared to London Fletcher-Baker A LOT Quincy Black: New Mexico – OLB – (6'1 ", 240) – ESPN Grade: 72 – Projected: 3 Strengths: Athleticism Change of Direction Speed Good Instincts (reads keys/rarely out of position) Great Coverage skills Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Size – problems anchoring against run Instincts Intangibles: Physically gifted High motor Versatile – Will probable be best suited for WLB, maybe even SS Developmental player Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Adequate depth and shows good range when dropping into zone coverage Stephen Nicholas: South Florida – OLB - (6'1 ", 232) – ESPN Grade: 76 – Project: 3/4 Strengths: Change of Direction Instincts Lateral Movements Areas for Improvement: Shedding Ability Speed Size Intangibles: Three year starter High motor Best suited for WLB in cover-2 (but lacks idea speed so potential is capped) Shows adequate range when asked to drop in zone coverage Plays with mean streak Rufus Alexander: Oklahoma – OLB – (6'0 ", 228) – ESPN Grade: 66 – Projected: 3/4 Strengths: Agility Athleticism Change of Direction Instincts – Ball hawk Good tackler Areas for Improvement: Size Strength Speed Takes plays off sometimes Intangibles: Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Played at high level at big school, but lacks ideal size, speed, and strength for NFL At his best in space Sideline to sideline run defender Michael Okwo: Stanford – OLB - (5'11 ", 232) – ESPN Grade – 67 – Projected -3/4 Strengths: Change of Direction Lateral Movement Speed Instincts – good angles Areas of Improvement: Shedding Ability Size Run support Durability Intangibles: Football intelligence Developmental player Best suited for WLB in cover 2 High motor Plays with mean streak Good special teamer Gets adequate depth when asked to drop into zone coverage Zak DeOssie: Brown – OLB/MLB - (6'4 ", 250) – ESPN Grade – 63 – Projected: 4 Strengths: Good Size Good speed for size Excellent in Coverage Areas for improvement: Durability (Knee, shoulder) Shedding blocks Awareness and Instincts Plays too high Intangibles: High motor Plays with mean streak Stand out special teamer Versatile – can play both inside and outside Workout warrior Best suited for ILB in cover 2 Gets good depth and can cover a lot of ground when asked to drop into zone coverage Earl Everett: Florida – OLB – (6'2 ", 238) – ESPN Grade: 58 – Projected: 4 Strengths: Athleticism Change of direction Size Areas of Improvement: Aggressiveness Toughness Intensity Instincts Intangibles: Great size and speed Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Leadership Now lets look at combine times: [40 Yard Dash: The 40 yard dash is a test of speed and explosion. The player starts from a three-point stance and runs 40 yards as fast as possible. The player is timed in 10, 20 and 40 yard increments, to gauge the player’s explosion of the line and time to top speed. Note: All times are from the NFL combine. Since all players ran on the same turf in the same conditions, its the fairest and most neutral way to rank them (times in parentheses are pro-day times) Group 1: Patrick Willis: 5.51 (4.37) Lawrence Timmons: 4.66 (4.63) Paul Posluszny: 4.70 (4.58) Jon Beason: 4.72 (4.62) Group 2: Quincy Black: 4.42 Tim Shaw: 4.51 (4.46) Justin Durant: 4.51 (none) Zak DeOssie: 4.58 (none) David Harris: 4.59 (none) Brandon Siler: 4.62 (none) Buster Davis: 4.64 (4.74) Stephen Nicholas” 4.64 * pro day number, did not run at combine Michael Okwo: 4.70 Stewart Bradley: 4.72 Rufus Alexander: 4.79 Earl Everett: 4.88 (*pulled hamstring on 1st run) In my opinion these numbers do not tell you much. Linebackers rarely have to run 40-yards in a straight line to make a tackle. So what would be a better indication of linebacker speed? How about 10-yard and 20-yard times? Since the first 10 or 20 yards are what a linebacker is going to traditionally need to cover, these times might be a better indication ‘explosiveness’ and ‘attacking’ ability. First we’ll look at 20 yard times and then the 10 yard times: 20 Yards: Group 1: Patrick Willis: 2.62 (2.52) Jon Beason: 2.64 (none) Lawrence Timmons: 2.68 (2.69) Paul Posluszny: 2.73 (2.61) Group 2: Quincy Black: 2.48 (none) David Harris: 2.59 (none) Justin Durant: 2.60 (none) Tim Shaw: 2.62 (2.54) Brandon Siler: 2.66 (none) Zak DeOssie: 2.66 (none) Stephen Nicholas: 2.68* pro day numbers, did not run at combine Stewart Bradley: 2.71 (none) Michael Okwo: 2.71 (none) Buster Davis: 2.74 (2.72) Rufus Alexander: 2.75 (none) Earl Everett: 2.81 (*Pulled hamstring on 1st run – ran in mid 4.7’s at pro day not at 100%) 10 Yards: Group 1: Lawrence Timmons: 1.50 (1.56) Patrick Willis: 1.53 (1.52) Paul Posluszny: 1.56 (1.53) Jon Beason: 1.60 (none) Group 2: Quincy Black: 1.53 (none) David Harris: 1.53 (none) Justin Durant: 1.55 (none) Brandon Siler: 1.56 (none) Zak DeOssie: 1.56 (none) Stewart Bradley: 1.56 (none) Michael Okwo: 1.58 (none) Stephen Nicholas: 1.58 *pro day number, did not run at combine Tim Shaw: 1.59 (1.49) Earl Everett: 1.62 (*pulled hamstring on first run) Rufus Alexander: 1.64 (none) Buster Davis: 1.65 (1.62) A couple of things stick out to me here: 1. Willis is consistently fast. He doesn’t tail off like most of the other guys do and carries a good frame for how fast he is. 2. Poz, Timmons, and Beason were all much more comparable to Willis in the first 20 yards then in the final 40 time. This tells me that all their playing speeds are relatively similar and good instincts may be the separating factor. 3. Buster Davis seems to be the only player who doesn’t improve much when looking at his 10-yard and 20-yard times. His 4.64 in his combine 40 was not bad, but then he ran a 4.74 at his pro-day and has the slowest 10-yard and 20 yard times. His small frame also scares me off as a cover-2 middle linebacker. He reminds me of London Fletcher, he may be a great Middle linebacker but is not suited for the cover-2 defense. 4. Davis, Alexander, and Everett seem slow no matter which time you look at. 20-yard shuttle: (maybe the most important drill for linebackers) The 20 yard shuttle test lateral speed and coordination. The player starts in a three point stance, straddling a yard line facing the sideline. When the whistle blows, the player runs 5 yards to one side, touching the yard line. He then sprints 10 yards in the other direction and again touches the yard line, at which point he sprints back to the yard line he started from. Group 1: Paul Posluszny: 4.20 Lawrence Timmons: 4.32 (4.34) Jon Beason: 4.33* - taken from personal day (4/5) – did not run at combine or pro day due to a strain pectoral muscle suffered at combine Patrick Willis: 4.46 (4.37) Group 2: Justin Durant: 4.09 Tim Shaw: 4.12 (4.28) Stewart Bradley: 4.17 Zak DeOssie: 4.22 David Harris: 4.29 Rufus Alexander: 4.30 Quincy Black: 4.34 Brandon Siler: 4.39* pro day time – did not run at combine Buster Davis: 4.37 Michael Okwo: 4.43 Stephen Nicholas: 4.45 Earl Everett: None What stands out here: VERY impressive times from Justin Durant, Tim Shaw and Paul Posluszny, also surprisingly on the slower side for Willis. Good times also for DeOssie, and Harris. Perhaps most impressive however is Bradley though. At nearly 6-4, 250 pounds being able to get the 3rd best time among Linebackers is pretty amazing. He seems like a great athlete, I don’t think he would be the best fit the cover-2, however (see his areas for improvement above). I was going to mention Shaw and Durant in the 40-yard section, but I figured I would hold off and see how they compared in the rest of the categories, so far, pretty impressive. Since this drill tests lateral speed and coordination, two very important traits for a successful NFL linebacker to have, it may be the most important drill at the Combine for linebackers. So for guys like Poz, Durant, Shaw and Harris, good times could mean big things for them come draft day. Side note on Beason: Since he ran on his personal day at his former high school weighing 8 pounds lighter than his ideal weight, his numbers are hard analyze. Not having the added weight may have allowed him to move quicker and record better times. That said, his times are still impressive though. *Also it’s important to note that Black had the best 60 yard shuttle time (11.23). Other notables: Poz had the third best time amongst linebackers (11.42), Durant fourth (11.44), Deossie fifth (11.50), Harris sixth (11.67), and Timmons ninth (11.78). 3 Cone Drill Tests speed, agility and cutting ability. Three cones are set up in a triangle or L shape, with each cone 5 yards apart. The player starts in a 3-point stance at the first cone. The whistle blows and the player sprints 5 yards ahead to the first cone, reaches down and touches a white line and then sprints back to the starting cone. At the starting cone, he reaches down and touches a white line, then heads back to the second cone. This time, he runs around the outside of the second cone, and cuts right to the third cone. He runs a circle around the third cone from the inside to the outside, then runs around the second cone before returning to the first cone. Group 1: Jon Beason: 6.89** taken from personal day (4/5) – did not run at combine or pro day due to a strain pectoral muscle suffered at combine Lawrence Timmons: 6.92 Paul Posluszny: 6.94 Patrick Willis: 7.23 (7.1) Group 2: Justin Durant: 6.77 Quincy Black: 6.86 Zak DeOssie: 6.89 Tim Shaw: 7.01 (6.9) Rufus Alexander: 7.06 Michael Okwo: 7.12 David Harris: 7.25 Buster Davis: 7.28 Stewart Bradley: 7.29 Stephen Nicholas: 7.29 Brandon Siler: 7.34 (7.7) Earl Everett: 7.39 * Pro day after pulling hamstring at combine, still not 100% What sticks out here: •Durant AGAIN with an impressive and fast 6.77 for a linebacker, I’m starting to see a trend here (highest among all linebackers, actually). •Timmons and Poz were nearly identical also putting up good numbers (5 and 6 among linebackers overall) •Here we find Willis in the middle of the pack, again somewhat surprising for his athleticism. Lets end with two other drills that may not be as important for linebackers as some of the others: The broad and vertical jumps: Broad Jump The broad jump is also done from a standing position, but this drill measures how far a player can jump. This drill is most important to positions that use lower body strength to gain an advantage (i.e. offensive and defensive linemen and running backs). The length of the jump is measured from the starting point to the back of the heel closest to the starting point upon landing. Group 1: Lawrence Timmons: 10’3” Patrick Willis: 9’11” Paul Posluszny: 9’8’’ Jon Beason: 9’3’’ (10’) Group 2: Quincy Black 10’4’” Zak DeOssie: 10’2” Justin Durant: 10’1” Michael Okwo: 10’1” Rufus Alexander: 9’9” Tim Shaw: 9’8’’ (10’6”) Earl Everett: 9’55” Stewart Bradley: 9’4” Stephen Nicholas: 9’2” Brandon Siler: 9’1” (9’8”) David Harris: 8’11” (9’2”) Buster Davis: 8’8’’ Vertical Jump Most important to wide receivers and defensive backs. To measure vertical jump, a player stands flat-footed in front of pole with a multitude of plastic flags sticking out. The bottom of the pole is adjusted to the height of the player’s fingertips when raised straight above his head. The player then jumps from a standing position, and tries to swat as many of the plastic flags as he can. The flags, staged every half inch on the pole, rotate and give the event judge a reading of the height the player jumped. Group 1: Patrick Willis: 39 Paul Posluszny: 37 Lawrence Timmons: 35 Jon Beason: 32.5 Group 2: Quincy Black 41.5 Tim Shaw: 36.5 Justin Durant: 36 Stewart Bradley: 35.5 Michael Okwo: 35.5 Rufus Alexander: 35 Zak DeOssie: 34.5 Stephen Nicholas: 33.5 David Harris: 33 Earl Everett: 32 Buster Davis: 31 Brandon Siler: 30.5 FINAL ANALYSIS: When you combine scouting reports with NFL Combine stats many trends are noticeable: 1. This draft seems to significantly favor OLBs to MLBs. According to ESPN rankings there are only 4 MLBs with overall grades over 70, as opposed to 8 OLBs over the grade of 70 (This could indicate that Buffalo might want to grab their MLB early (Willis) and choose from one of the many similarly rated OLBs later). 2. Among all Linebackers, but more specifically OLBs, size seems to be a concern for almost everyone. Only a few OLBs possess elite size and many of the negatives are a direct result from this. 3. In direct correlation to the size concerns, most OLBs project better on the weak side where speed is more important then the strong side where size is preferred. As a result SLB is very poorly represented in this draft. Some players who possess good versatility (Poz, Shaw, Black) may be able to play on the strong side effectively in the NFL. 4. Among the four players in Group 1, I don’t think the Bills can go wrong with any of them. I think Willis is clearly the best bet but both Poz and Beason would fit well in our defense as well. Out of the four, Timmons concerns me the most because he is raw and lacks ideal speed and coverage ability. He is also the only one of the four to not possess good “instincts,” a trait which is important for “attacking” linebackers in the cover-2. 5. Beason really impresses me, but not with the 12th pick. Prior to a few weeks ago he was projected to go high in the second round. Now he’s projected as a mid-late 1st rounder. If he does slip into the beginning of the second round, it may be wise for Buffalo to try to make a move to get him, regardless of what they do with the 12th pick. If Buffalo were really lucky he would still be available with the 43rd pick. 6. Among the 4 MLBs, aside from Willis who is by far-and-away the best of the group, both Harris and DeOssie impress me the most. Harris would be a good pick up in round 2 and a GREAT pick up in round 3 if he lasts that far. DeOssie would have good value in round 4. He has great size (nearly 6-5, 250 pounds) and is considered “excellent” in coverage. He would be a great fit if the Bills decided to go with one of the OLBs (Poz/Beason) earlier in the draft. Among the rest of the OLBs Durant, Shaw, and Black impress me the most (in that order). They all possess good speed and would be great pick ups in the third round. None of the three would have to start right away as they could provide depth/competition on the weak side. Those who I don’t think would be good fits in the cover-2 are Bradley, Davis and Siler. Davis is an undersized middle linebacker (alla Fletcher), while Bradley, although possessing good size, may be too big to be an effective outside backer in the cover-2. Siler is one of the top rated middle linebackers in the draft and is projected to go in round 2, but his two negatives scare me off (pass coverage ability and instincts) because they are two very important traits for a cover-2 MLB to possess. Prediction: 1. Regardless of if the Bills add a MLB (Willis) or an OLB (Poz/Beason) in round 1, I look for them to address OLB with one of the next three picks. Good possibilities would be; Beason (if he somehow fell to the second), Durant, Shaw, or Black. If they went OLB in round one then Harris and DeOssie are also good possibilities. 2. If the Bills decide to skip on LB in round 1 (Which I think is unlikely) I think the best option would be to take a guy like Harris in round two and either Durant, Shaw, or Black with one of the third rounders. 3. In the end, I definitely see Buffalo grabbing two linebackers in the first 4 rounds. Grabbing a guy that can play either MLB or SLB to supplement Crowell is priority one and then adding another guy to back-up/compete with Ellison on the weak side as priority two (among linebackers).
bills_fan Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Terrific analysis. I love Willis, but would not be upset if we came out of this with Lynch/Harris/DeOssie.
NewEra Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Terrific analysis. I love Willis, but would not be upset if we came out of this with Lynch/Harris/DeOssie. Seems like there are several serviceable LB's in this years draft....Grab a RB in the 1st and LBs round 2-4
H2o Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Good read 111. It's good to be able to scan through all of the #'s on these guys. The only other thing I would have liked to have seen about these LB's would be the bench press reps they did in the allotted time. Still a good job though man.
Pete Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Great analysis! Thanks for posting- this should be pinned. I will refer to it again on draftday, cheers!
Lothar Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 To echo the above sentiments, that was some outstanding analysis. Thank you. One comment with regard to the vertical jump - I do think it reflects explosion for most every position. A LB's potential to go thru a ball carrier as opposed to just tackling him is often times reflected in this number. Ideally, you want production (stats) and durability (injuries) to be your first pass thru this group. Then the instincts and leadership intangibles get combined with an individual's athleticism to refine that decision. On that basis, I like your thinking - Willis/Poz/Beason all seem like fine choices early. Durant - and lately, Shaw impress me as 3rd round possibilities. Shaw's physical tools and versatility lead me to think he may be better than he's shown thus far if a coaching staff lets him settle into a position.
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 I just went to MYsportsrival.com to look at their mock draft. They had video highlights of certain players. WELL... 90 minutes later I have these observations: 1. You sure lose track of time on Youtube 2. Patrick Willis had many outstanding plays (Obviously, this is a highlight reel !!)He looks like a young Cornelius Bennett or Takeo Spikes at Auburn. I was very impressed. Please, if you have the time....Dozens of plays. 3.Paul Posluszny- PLEASE view them. He is not in the same class. Willis pounds defenders down. POS just kind of rides them down. POS looks and plays smaller. He reminds me of Shane Conlan but not as strong but a very good player. 4. When Marcus McCauley hits you , you go down. I love corners that can tackle like a linebacker. 5. Eric Weddle looks like he has about a 9" vertical. In The Senior Bowl videos he looks he doesn't belong out there. 6. Leon Hall at the Senior Bowl practices looked very slow to react and was beaten by receivers regularly. 7. Ryan Kalil /Center-- Senior Bowl practices dominated Okoye . I understand that drills are not the same as games but, man he came prepared to kick booty. Naturally, these are not their full body of work. I'm just telling you what I saw as I got lost on the internet. Eight days left till my Christmas. I can't wait. P.S. This is not a hate Posluszny post, just telling you my obs... Take Care
Kelly the Dog Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Nicely done with the analysis. That's a dern good post.
Tortured Soul Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 A few questions: Based on everything you've seen, why are you so low on Bradley? The measurables on him seem to look very good, and I don't think you can be "too big" to be SLB in the cover-2. Plus, ESPN seems relatively high on him. If our starting linebackers on Sept. 9th are Durant, Ellison, and Crowell, who do you see lining up at which spot? Who would you guess would be available at 43? 76? Is Willis worth the 12th pick?
The Dean Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 I just went to MYsportsrival.com to look at their mock draft. They had video highlights of certain players. WELL... 90 minutes later I have these observations:1. You sure lose track of time on Youtube 2. Patrick Willis had many outstanding plays (Obviously, this is a highlight reel !!)He looks like a young Cornelius Bennett or Takeo Spikes at Auburn. I was very impressed. Please, if you have the time....Dozens of plays. 3.Paul Posluszny- PLEASE view them. He is not in the same class. Willis pounds defenders down. POS just kind of rides them down. POS looks and plays smaller. He reminds me of Shane Conlan but not as instinctive but a very good player. 4. When Marcus McCauley hits you , you go down. I love corners that can tackle like a linebacker. 5. Eric Weddle looks like he has about a 9" vertical. In The Senior Bowl videos he looks he doesn't belong out there. 6. Leon Hall at the Senior Bowl practices looked very slow to react and was beaten by receivers regularly. 7. Ryan Kalil /Center-- Senior Bowl practices dominated Okoye . I understand that drills are not the same as games but, man he came prepared to kick booty. Naturally, these are not their full body of work. I'm just telling you what I saw as I got lost on the internet. Eight days left till my Christmas. I can't wait. P.S. This is not a hate Posluszny post, just telling you my obs... Take Care Great thread. Terrific initial post and nice addition here. Just a warning. Don't judge players based on video highlights. They show the great plays and hits, but not the misses and mistakes. So, for example Willis may hit like a Mack truck while Poz "rides them down", Willis MAY overrun plays, miss tackles trying to hit big, get caught out of position, etc,...while Poz "quietly" makes the plays and misses few. I'm not saying that''s the case...I'm just saying "Beware".
Max Fischer Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 While I congratuate you on your number crunching, I've always wondered where the "cut line" for combine results really are for each position. Since combine skills don't necessarily translate onto the field, what may be the general "cut line" for these tests that suggest they can't cut it on the field? Does a 7.7 in the cone drill mean they can't be a first round pick? Why? Does it really matter? If all things are "generally" equal, instincts in sports are very critical, if not THE critical factor that separates the players. In other words, do they "play fast" or even play stronger, tougher - jump higher on the field? Instinctual timing, getting a jump on the play, knowing how to use your body (etc) can't be measured in combines. You can shave a second off your shuttle speed on the field because the cones are moving and you just "know" how to get around them faster than the next guy, you can out jump taller players because you "know when" to jump, you could out muscle bigger opponents because you can use your leverage. And if you don't know where you're going on the field no amount of speed will get you there. [My favorite example is great outfielders. They are great not because they're the fastest or have the strongest arms, but because they know where the ball will go and get a "jump" on it, shaving a great amount of time of their "40". ] To me, as long as the times are generally the same the only way you can tell the difference between one or the other is what they did on the field and do they possess the capacity to "learn" how to be faster, stronger, quicker on the field.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Great thread. Another thing to be a little suspect of are the times, especially the difference in times from the combine to the pro day. For example, I read that Willis lost 5 pounds from his combine weight (and playing weight) 242 to 237 for the pro day numbers. Now, does he gain that weight back to be the tough player he was and lose that speed all over again? Or does he stay at 237 and lose some strength as "a tackling machine"? Or is he just as good and strong, but faster at 237? It's impossible to know for sure, but all of this stuff has to be taken into consideration. http://nfl.com/draft/analysis/expert/brandt/lb
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 The more I research into Jon Beason the more I come away liking him more then poz and a bit more then patrick willis. While overall I'm not a fan of drafting a lb high as I feel it is a position you can get away with later picks 3rd-4th round even. I believe Beason can be inserted at mlb and play it quite effectively. He's a damn good tackler, and I believe his 20 yard speed is a good indicator that he may well be suited droping deep zone in the middle of the field typical of a mlb in a cover 2 defense
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Great thread. Terrific initial post and nice addition here. Just a warning. Don't judge players based on video highlights. They show the great plays and hits, but not the misses and mistakes. So, for example Willis may hit like a Mack truck while Poz "rides them down", Willis MAY overrun plays, miss tackles trying to hit big, get caught out of position, etc,...while Poz "quietly" makes the plays and misses few. I'm not saying that''s the case...I'm just saying "Beware". Right on. That's why scouts are so important as I'm sure they have to watch hour upon hour of film looking for the flaws in a player as well. And why many of us can't believe we pick a guy when we do ----> Whitner ?. Then after Season 1 we see that our scouts didn't pay attention to the talking heads and picked a Stud; though I must admit, the first two minutes after the Whitner pick, I was in a bad way. Have a nice Weekend All
The Dean Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Right on. That's why scouts are so important as I'm sure they have to watch hour upon hour of film looking for the flaws in a player as well. And why many of us can't believe we pick a guy when we do ----> Whitner ?. Then after Season 1 we see that our scouts didn't pay attention to the talking heads and picked a Stud; though I must admit, the first two minutes after the Whitner pick, I was in a bad way. Have a nice Weekend All Me too, bro...me too.
jri111 Posted April 20, 2007 Author Posted April 20, 2007 A few questions: Based on everything you've seen, why are you so low on Bradley? The measurables on him seem to look very good, and I don't think you can be "too big" to be SLB in the cover-2. Plus, ESPN seems relatively high on him. If our starting linebackers on Sept. 9th are Durant, Ellison, and Crowell, who do you see lining up at which spot? Who would you guess would be available at 43? 76? Is Willis worth the 12th pick? Thanks to everyone who complemented on the post. As I said, It started out pretty mundane, like every other post, but I just kept adding to it and it became what it became! A few notes and replies: In response to Bradley, here are the negative again that I have found about him: Speed (lacks sideline-to-sideline range) Lateral movements Pass Coverage Skills Inefficient: over pursues Durability (knee) I think you can make the case that the top three on the list are some of the most important traits a cover-2 linebacker should have. Everything I have read about him is that he's an inside the box type of tackler. He doesn't seem to have great range in zone coverage and he's not a sideline-to-sideline 'backer. I think his traits are perfect for the strong side linebacker in the 3-4, but not in the 4-3 where you're asking your linebackers to cover a lot of ground. I like him, I just don't think he'd be a good fit for the Bills and the scheme they run. Just my opinion. As for the starting linebackers being Durant, Crowell and Ellison, I don't see that happening. I really cant see how the Bills come out of this draft without getting either Willis, Poz, Beason, Timmons, or Harris. These are the guys that can come in and start right away. I like guys like Durant and Black, but I think you're taking a big risk asking one of them to be a day one starter. That said, IF it does play out like that Ellison would obviously be the weakside backer with Durant on the strong side and Crowell in the middle (only because Durant would have enough of a hill to climb, and it would be too much to ask him to be the "quarterback" of the defense on opening day). If you're just looking at pure ability or who fits best at what position, then i would switch the two, have durant start in the middle and keep crowell on the strong side, but i just don't see that happening. Who do i think would be available at the 43rd? Well the only ones that would be gone for sure are Willis, Poz, and Timmons. Beason would most likely be gone as well and I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris go early in round 2. That said, I can see Harris still there. If we do pass up on a LB in round 1, then I think it's imperative to try to get either Beason or Harris with our second pick, even if that means moving up. At 76, i can see the above 5 guys gone (Willis, Poz, Timmons, Beason, Harris) and maybe Durant and Bradley as well. Everyone else I think has a good chance of being there. Finally, is willis worth the 12th pick? I'll go one further and say that Poz is also worth the 12th pick (maybe even Beason). The fact is the Bills NEED a starting linebacker out of this draft. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Runningback is the other major need, and although "elite" backs are far and few between, I think you could make the case of adding many later round guys who would be good fits with A-Train (Pittman, Irons, Booker, Jackson, Henry, etc..). Ther are also a few free agents still out there too if worst come to worst (Brown, Dillon, Davis). For linebacker the draft is pretty much your last and only chance to get a linebacker. So although the "experts" might say that taking a guy like Poz or Beason at 12 would be a reach, when it's your number 1 priority then I argue that it isn't. If they guy you want is there and you have even the slightest indication that he wouldn't be there if you trade down, then I think you're foolish just to ignore your needs because he'd be taken a few spots higher then expected. That said, if they Bills like multiple 'backers equally and think they can get a starter in round two (either at 43 or trading back up) then i'm all for taking the best player available. To answer your question though, no, I don't see taking willis as a reach.
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