Willis990 Posted April 19, 2007 Posted April 19, 2007 By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Archive I recently completed an analysis of my major 2006 metrics for inclusion in ESPN's 2007 Fantasy Football Magazine and I thought I might share some of the most interesting metric highs and lows. Tom Brady led all quarterbacks with the lowest bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses. Rex Grossman was roundly criticized last season for forcing passes into coverage. Grossman did lead the league in near interception percentage (7.3), but Brett Favre actually topped Grossman for the highest total of near interceptions (Favre 44, Grossman 37). Already an Insider? Sign in below: MEMBER NAME: PASSWORD: Account info Already an Insider? Sign in below: MEMBER NAME: PASSWORD: Account info To continue reading this article you must be an Insider.
KD in CA Posted April 19, 2007 Posted April 19, 2007 Tom Brady led all quarterbacks with the lowest bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses. Did the calculation include his decisions to not wear a bag with two different chicks??
Bagel Posted April 19, 2007 Posted April 19, 2007 What about JP's numbers? This is what he said about JP in today's chat: Tony (Rochester, NY): Hey KC, Been wondering about JP Losman? What were his 2006 metric like? What's your analysis of his play last year? J (Milwaukee): How were JP Losman's bad decision metrics this year? And were they an improvement over last year? To the untrained eye it sure seemed that way. KC Joyner: (4:05 PM ET ) You guys are something like the 4th or 5th persons to ask me about Losman in the past few days! Losman had very good deep metrics (5th best YPA in bombs) but his combined medium/short metrics were terrible, especially the bad decision percentage. Overall his bad decision percentage was around the Jon Kitna level, if that tells you anything! Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Losman gets help with the additions of Walker, Dockery, and Whittle to the offensive line. Pass protection may have been a part of his bad decisions. Do you think these additions will help him even though there's no running back threat yet? KC Joyner: (4:09 PM ET ) Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that Losman just doesn't see the short/medium parts of the field very well. He's a gunslinger and the best way to use a gunslinger is to try to get his YPA high enough to offset the bad decisions.
Bagel Posted April 19, 2007 Posted April 19, 2007 By KC JoynerESPN Insider Archive I recently completed an analysis of my major 2006 metrics for inclusion in ESPN's 2007 Fantasy Football Magazine and I thought I might share some of the most interesting metric highs and lows. Tom Brady led all quarterbacks with the lowest bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses. Rex Grossman was roundly criticized last season for forcing passes into coverage. Grossman did lead the league in near interception percentage (7.3), but Brett Favre actually topped Grossman for the highest total of near interceptions (Favre 44, Grossman 37). To continue reading this article you must be an Insider. One other interesting note from that article regarding old friend Eric Moulds: There were two surprises in the highest and lowest success percentages for wide receivers. The lowest success percentage belonged to Chris Chambers (44.8). His 16 drops certainly didn't help, so Chambers is capable of bouncing back. The highest success percentage belonged to Eric Moulds (79.7). While his 7.8 YPA was not all that great, any wide receiver still able to post a success percentage that high deserves a roster spot somewhere in this league. Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 19, 2007 Posted April 19, 2007 So in other words, of the 12 INTs and 26 sacks, 33 of them were damn good decisions. That number, 33, could be considerably higher in any of the 203 incompletions were not good decisions.
MadBuffaloDisease Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Funny that the Pats didn't win the SB the past 2 years. I guess it's not Tommy Boy, is it?
Whites Bay Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 This is what he said about JP in today's chat: Tony (Rochester, NY): Hey KC, Been wondering about JP Losman? What were his 2006 metric like? What's your analysis of his play last year? J (Milwaukee): How were JP Losman's bad decision metrics this year? And were they an improvement over last year? To the untrained eye it sure seemed that way. KC Joyner: (4:05 PM ET ) You guys are something like the 4th or 5th persons to ask me about Losman in the past few days! Losman had very good deep metrics (5th best YPA in bombs) but his combined medium/short metrics were terrible, especially the bad decision percentage. Overall his bad decision percentage was around the Jon Kitna level, if that tells you anything! Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Losman gets help with the additions of Walker, Dockery, and Whittle to the offensive line. Pass protection may have been a part of his bad decisions. Do you think these additions will help him even though there's no running back threat yet? KC Joyner: (4:09 PM ET ) Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that Losman just doesn't see the short/medium parts of the field very well. He's a gunslinger and the best way to use a gunslinger is to try to get his YPA high enough to offset the bad decisions. Hot damn! Am I the only one who gets this? Do you know who we have here?!? C'mon boys and girls....we have STABLER!!!! This is the second coming of the Mad Bomber! Turn on John Lennon, pop out the Tums, get ready for the bald spot and the high blood pressure............ ......and a Super Bowl ring. I'm thrilled beyond words. We have Stabler. Oh my God, we have Stabler.
Simon Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that I absolutely love the idea of being able to break down the game in scientific terms in order to get a true picture of who's doing their job and who isn't. But in order to achieve accurate results you have to have the judgements being made by a guy who has a very good grasp of what is heppening on the field. While I love Joyner's concept, there have been numerous things I've seen from him that give me the impression that he really doesn't have much of an idea of what he's actually watching. And I've seen other of his analyses of individual plays where he was soooooo far wrong that it was really bordering on embarassing. And now he's referring to himself as a scout when he couldn't diagram a trap if it was locked on his ankle? Funny stuff.......
The Dean Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 I'd LOVE to see the methodology and data on THIS "analysis".
Saint Doug Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 One other interesting note from that article regarding old friend Eric Moulds: There were two surprises in the highest and lowest success percentages for wide receivers. The lowest success percentage belonged to Chris Chambers (44.8). His 16 drops certainly didn't help, so Chambers is capable of bouncing back. The highest success percentage belonged to Eric Moulds (79.7). While his 7.8 YPA was not all that great, any wide receiver still able to post a success percentage that high deserves a roster spot somewhere in this league. Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor. Speaking of Moulds, any know if or where he is going to play next year? Kinda sad that he was such a great player for us, then starting complaining, then got traded, then fell off the face of the Earth.
smokinandjokin Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 I'd LOVE to see the methodology and data on THIS "analysis". You will have to contact Calvin Johnson for some greenleaf before you start delving into those numbers...
The Dean Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 You will have to contact Calvin Johnson for some greenleaf before you start delving into those numbers... A most excellent idea.
Willis990 Posted April 20, 2007 Author Posted April 20, 2007 Anyone?? Below is the analysis of J.P.: J (Milwaukee): How were JP Losman's bad decision metrics this year? And were they an improvement over last year? To the untrained eye it sure seemed that way. KC Joyner: (4:05 PM ET ) You guys are something like the 4th or 5th persons to ask me about Losman in the past few days! Losman had very good deep metrics (5th best YPA in bombs) but his combined medium/short metrics were terrible, especially the bad decision percentage. Overall his bad decision percentage was around the Jon Kitna level, if that tells you anything! Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Losman gets help with the additions of Walker, Dockery, and Whittle to the offensive line. Pass protection may have been a part of his bad decisions. Do you think these additions will help him even though there's no running back threat yet? KC Joyner: (4:09 PM ET ) Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that Losman just doesn't see the short/medium parts of the field very well. He's a gunslinger and the best way to use a gunslinger is to try to get his YPA high enough to offset the bad decisions.
Peter Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 This is what he said about JP in today's chat: Tony (Rochester, NY): Hey KC, Been wondering about JP Losman? What were his 2006 metric like? What's your analysis of his play last year? J (Milwaukee): How were JP Losman's bad decision metrics this year? And were they an improvement over last year? To the untrained eye it sure seemed that way. KC Joyner: (4:05 PM ET ) You guys are something like the 4th or 5th persons to ask me about Losman in the past few days! Losman had very good deep metrics (5th best YPA in bombs) but his combined medium/short metrics were terrible, especially the bad decision percentage. Overall his bad decision percentage was around the Jon Kitna level, if that tells you anything! Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Losman gets help with the additions of Walker, Dockery, and Whittle to the offensive line. Pass protection may have been a part of his bad decisions. Do you think these additions will help him even though there's no running back threat yet? KC Joyner: (4:09 PM ET ) Lane, all of those things could help him but my scout's eye says that Losman just doesn't see the short/medium parts of the field very well. He's a gunslinger and the best way to use a gunslinger is to try to get his YPA high enough to offset the bad decisions. This confirms what we already knew. JP is very good with deep passes, but struggles with short and medium throws. As the one guy said, hopefully the revamped o-line will help solve this problem. Yet, we better have a running game this year. JP is probably not going to have the luxury of facing 8 man fronts as often as he has the past few years. Defenses have defended against our run game first these past few years. If we do not have a running game for defenses to respect, it is not going to be pretty.
OCinBuffalo Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 I'd LOVE to see the methodology and data on THIS "analysis". Yeah - last time KC did some "analysis" he completely f'ed it up. He compared "good" throws, but didn't take into account that some QBs threw 2-3 times the number of of passes as others - which is how Kelly Holcomb ended up 5th on his good list. It wasn't a consistent model that can be used as a standard for comparison - like a batting average. If this "model" is based KC's poor understanding of stats, ignore this completely.
ThreeBillsDrive Posted April 20, 2007 Posted April 20, 2007 So we get more rocket science from the gurus on pro football analysis: ESPN. Quantity of "Bad decisions" divided by "Decisions" = Bad Decision Percentage But the numerator "Bad decisions" is a highly subjective notion. What are the criteria that go into determining a "Bad decision"? And who makes the determination? Me thinks the lull before the draft, post the free agency period, is causing writers to push the boundaries a bit in what they're writing. So we get this article in the week before the draft, after which the beat writers will spend 90% of their time analyzing team picks for weeks after the draft.
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