Some Possible Solutions to the RB situation:

[JuanGuzman]

As of right now RB is a glaring hole in an offense that has a a lot of potential. A-Train should not be a #1 option and I don't see Fred Jackson as a viable option either. Moreover having such unreliable running game could adversely affect the development of our key player -- JP Losman. Something needs to be done prior to the season, here is my take on some of logical plans posters have suggested:

 

Solution 1: Draft Adrian Peterson, if he miraculously falls to us. I love this quote about him: "[AP]might be the best back I've ever seen coming out of college." "Every time he carries the ball," Gruden said, "he tries to hurt you. He's bad. And he's fast. He's mean. He's tough. This guy is something else. He sure gets your attention." ( Sure Gruden might be draft posturing but i tend to agree this is one of the best RB prospects the NFL has seen in a long time) However I do not recommend trading up to get him unless its minor. This team has too many holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball to be giving up 1st day picks.

 

Verdict: If he falls to us so be it, but a team with so many defensive holes should not be trading away first day draft picks.

 

Solution 2: Trading for M. Turner. If I'm not in favour of giving draft picks to get Peterson, similarly I'm not in favour of giving up picks to get Micheal Turner. While I agree Turner appears to be an incredible talent he is not worth the price AJ Smith has been advertising. Moreover since he will become an URFA after next season and the Bills will have plenty of cap money to throw at him. The Bills with or without Turner are not Super Bowl bound. While we need an adequate RB this year we don't need to dole a bunch of money and draft picks for a career backup (although a damn good one). If we want Turner we should just wait till 2008 Free agency and offer him the most enticing offer....

Verdict: Don't trade for him. If we want him that bad just sign him next year.

 

Solution 3: FA + midround pick: This is the situation that I hope plays out (excluding AP somehow falling to us at 12) sign a talented veteran to a deal that pays him a lot of money upfront for 07 (to entice him hopefully incentive laden) but allows terms to make it easy for us to cut next year without facing major cap penalties. Much like the 1 year deal the Browns gave Jamaal Lewis. I see Corey Dillon and Chris Brown as options and Domanick (Davis) Williams depending on his knee. Add to the Mix a rookie RB drafted with a 3rd round pick or later I like Tony Hunt, Brandon Jackson, Jackie Butler, Lorenzo Booker.

 

Verdict: A stop gap solution unless the draft pick studs out. Nevertheless provides the offense with adequate play at the RB position with out giving up draft picks.

 

Solution 4: Marshawn Lynch. I do not see this guy as a first round talent and I hated the thought of using the 1st round pick on him. Yet with rumours of his stock falling there is the distinct possibility he might fall to us in the 2nd round. I might have to re-evaluate my opinion on him @ #43 overall he would represent tremendous value for that pick.

 

Verdict : Anywhere in the top 20 is to high for Lynch IMO. Although If he falls to us in the 2nd RD he might be able to address our need.

 

 

Final observation: For the sake of offensive balance we need to add a quality RB but by no means do we have to "give up the farm" for a so called great running back of the future. With or without A.P, M. Turner or even the best runningback in the league LT the 2007 Bills will not be Super Bowl bound. Lets concentrate on filling our substantial defensive holes through the draft unless we get lucky (AP falls to #12, Marshawn falls to #43, AJ Smith gives up Turner for virtually nothing eg. ( at most our 3rd pick acquired from Baltimore # 92). Runningback is a concern but lets not mortgage the future... Its my opinion that if we add impact players through the 2007 draft the Bills could be talking Super Bowl in 2008/2009. Lets add at least 1LB 1 CB and 1 DL with 3 of our 4 first day picks.

 

 

1st. Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss

2nd. Marcus McCauley CB Fresno St.

3rd. Marcus Thomas DT Florida

 

or

 

1st. Amobi Okoye DT Louisville

2nd Marcus McCauley CB Fresno St.

3rd. Quincy Black OLB New Mexico

 

or

 

1. Leon Hall CB Michigan

2. David Harris ILB Michigan

3. Marcus Thomas DT Florida

[Dibs]

Though I don't believe it an easy thing to simply slot in a rookie/FA RB, the recent superbowl success of the Colts, Ravens & Patriots has me thinking. All three of those teams built the a superbowl caliber unit....then added a RB. Ravens in 00 with Lewis. Patriots in 01 with Smith & 03 with Dillon. Colts in 06 with Addai. This has me thinking about solution #5.....

 

Solution 5: Basically ignore RB this year. Draft at best a 3rd rounder(you never know) and give the team(esp. the OL) a year to gel. Use all the resources available this year to fix the rest of the team. Then, next off-season....hopefully the team is looking to be on the verge.....add a 1st round RB or decent FA RB. With a young defense with a few years experience, a probowl level QB & WR and a very solid OL, one would hope that any half good RB would produce at above average levels......and with a bit of luck the team might emulate the superbowl winners mentioned above.

[JinWPB]

I think you left out the one option that could have us in the playoffs this year.

 

Trade a couple 2nd day picks to draft hungry Miami (as reported in Palm Beach Post they want quantity over quality to rebuild their roster) for Ricky Williams,our problem is solved for 3-4 years. Use our top picks on D and there you go.

 

Miami understands they are dead fish this year with or without Ricky , as they have Ronnie Brown(#1 pick)

they will trade Ricky to whoever is willing to deal.

 

GITERDONE Marv.

[tennesseeboy]

I tend to agree with you and would go along with both of your pick scenarios. I'm big on Jonathan Wade of Tennessee as our second round CB, but I guess some might argue its my Tennessee bias. I'm more impressed by his speed and potential upside. I'm starting to wonder if the kid might not go in the late first round.

[Pyrite Gal]

Solution 6: Trade down the#12 choice if possible.

 

For example, according to draft choice equivalent value charted published at the Redzone site, the # 12 has a value of 1200 points and if you traded down even to #20 (depending upon how risk averse we are we can go down further and get more value in return but still be on the board for Poz) with its value set at 850. In order for us to receive equivalent value the other team needs to give us another draft pick (or combination of picks) equivalent to the 23rd pick in the second round for flipping firsts.

 

If the Bills pull off this type of deal, they then draft Poz at OLB (or Timmons if you believe in him) and have him start at SLB with Crowell at MLB and Ellison at WLB, but then have at least 2 2nd round picks or some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks which gives us multiple first day choices.

 

They then are able to select two of the folks considered likely first day choices at RB such as Pittman, Irons (and even have enough resources to after all-purpose FB Brian Leonard if they chose.

 

I think they should go this route even if Willis is available at #12 and if they have any doubts about the health of a Peterson should he drop. Willis looks good, butby definition in this case (and this certainly appears to be the consensus theory) Willis is not a top 10 pick (what I define as an elite prospect). He looks good, but he is merely the strongest of a non-10 consensus pick LB class and I have no problem trading down if we can pull it off because I think we are better quicker with this optuion.

 

With two first day RB choices they have a reasonable potential that one of these candidates might emerge as a #1 or if not and they are forced to go RBBC these two join with A-Train to provide great flexibility.

[BuffaloBilliever]

Why isn't Anthony Thomas a viable #1 option? This blows my mind that people don't think he wouldn't fill in nicely switching time with another RB. I think the once Rookie of the Year is definitley a prime prospect to lead this teams backfield, but that's just me.

[obie_wan]

Solution 6: Trade down the#12 choice if possible.

 

For example, according to draft choice equivalent value charted published at the Redzone site, the # 12 has a value of 1200 points and if you traded down even to #20 (depending upon how risk averse we are we can go down further and get more value in return but still be on the board for Poz) with its value set at 850. In order for us to receive equivalent value the other team needs to give us another draft pick (or combination of picks) equivalent to the 23rd pick in the second round for flipping firsts.

 

If the Bills pull off this type of deal, they then draft Poz at OLB (or Timmons if you believe in him) and have him start at SLB with Crowell at MLB and Ellison at WLB, but then have at least 2 2nd round picks or some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks which gives us multiple first day choices.

 

They then are able to select two of the folks considered likely first day choices at RB such as Pittman, Irons (and even have enough resources to after all-purpose FB Brian Leonard if they chose.

 

I think they should go this route even if Willis is available at #12 and if they have any doubts about the health of a Peterson should he drop. Willis looks good, butby definition in this case (and this certainly appears to be the consensus theory) Willis is not a top 10 pick (what I define as an elite prospect). He looks good, but he is merely the strongest of a non-10 consensus pick LB class and I have no problem trading down if we can pull it off because I think we are better quicker with this optuion.

 

With two first day RB choices they have a reasonable potential that one of these candidates might emerge as a #1 or if not and they are forced to go RBBC these two join with A-Train to provide great flexibility.

 

they don;t need to trade down to draft a RB.

 

Brandon Jackson and Lorenzo Booker would be better options than Irons and Pittman.

[Mike formerly from Florida]

Solution 6: Trade down the#12 choice if possible.

 

For example, according to draft choice equivalent value charted published at the Redzone site, the # 12 has a value of 1200 points and if you traded down even to #20 (depending upon how risk averse we are we can go down further and get more value in return but still be on the board for Poz) with its value set at 850. In order for us to receive equivalent value the other team needs to give us another draft pick (or combination of picks) equivalent to the 23rd pick in the second round for flipping firsts.

 

If the Bills pull off this type of deal, they then draft Poz at OLB (or Timmons if you believe in him) and have him start at SLB with Crowell at MLB and Ellison at WLB, but then have at least 2 2nd round picks or some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks which gives us multiple first day choices.

 

They then are able to select two of the folks considered likely first day choices at RB such as Pittman, Irons (and even have enough resources to after all-purpose FB Brian Leonard if they chose.

 

I think they should go this route even if Willis is available at #12 and if they have any doubts about the health of a Peterson should he drop. Willis looks good, butby definition in this case (and this certainly appears to be the consensus theory) Willis is not a top 10 pick (what I define as an elite prospect). He looks good, but he is merely the strongest of a non-10 consensus pick LB class and I have no problem trading down if we can pull it off because I think we are better quicker with this optuion.

 

With two first day RB choices they have a reasonable potential that one of these candidates might emerge as a #1 or if not and they are forced to go RBBC these two join with A-Train to provide great flexibility.

 

If we trade down I want Robert Meachem. Then draft a rb (Pittman?) and Justin Durant in the second, then Daymeion Hughes in the third along with another linebacker or best DL or TE.

[apuszczalowski]

Why isn't Anthony Thomas a viable #1 option? This blows my mind that people don't think he wouldn't fill in nicely switching time with another RB. I think the once Rookie of the Year is definitley a prime prospect to lead this teams backfield, but that's just me.

Maybe because he has not been a full time starter for a few seasons

 

No one says he is not a good RB, just that he is not the solution as a #1a RB

[Fewell733]

How come you don't consider drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd as a viable option? You seem to be of the belief that its Peterson, Lynch or some anonymous nobody that will be a "stop gap." A guy like Pittman or Jackson complemented by A-Train would be fine. Though if we have a chance to get a freak like Peterson, I have a lot of trouble passing that up.

[apuszczalowski]

How come you don't consider drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd as a viable option? You seem to be of the belief that its Peterson, Lynch or some anonymous nobody that will be a "stop gap." A guy like Pittman or Jackson complemented by A-Train would be fine. Though if we have a chance to get a freak like Peterson, I have a lot of trouble passing that up.

Was this addressed to me?

 

If so, I could care less, as long as who they get is good enough to be the starter for years to come. I think that the arguement you have about drafting peterson or any other good RB in the later rounds is the same as drafting Willis or another LB. Would Willis be a great choice, of course, so would getting Peterson, but its not the end of the world if they don't get them.

[Pyrite Gal]

Why isn't Anthony Thomas a viable #1 option? This blows my mind that people don't think he wouldn't fill in nicely switching time with another RB. I think the once Rookie of the Year is definitley a prime prospect to lead this teams backfield, but that's just me.

 

1. The maximum number of starts he has EVER had in his career is 13 which he did in 2003. This means if he is even able to do as well as he ever has done in terms of work as a #1 RB (certainly possible BUT he will hit the wrong side of 30 during the season so it is not unlikely that being past the prime age for an RB he may probably as likely do worse than his best year).

 

2. In his "career" year of 2003 he produced Willis M like numbers rushing of slightly over 1000 yards.

 

3. The same argument that he has not had a lot of wear and tear these past few years is true but also the flipside is that he was not used because he could not or was at least unlikely to according to his coaches play or produce. His long time not lugging the rock also brings with it the undeniable flipside of age and he is simply not the young rookie he once was.

 

Can A-Train burst forth to be the #1 we want?

 

It certainly is possible.

 

Is this likely to happen.

 

No not at all likely even if possible.

[Fewell733]

Was this addressed to me?

 

If so, I could care less, as long as who they get is good enough to be the starter for years to come. I think that the arguement you have about drafting peterson or any other good RB in the later rounds is the same as drafting Willis or another LB. Would Willis be a great choice, of course, so would getting Peterson, but its not the end of the world if they don't get them.

 

no, it was addressed to Mr. Guzman

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Though I don't believe it an easy thing to simply slot in a rookie/FA RB, the recent superbowl success of the Colts, Ravens & Patriots has me thinking. All three of those teams built the a superbowl caliber unit....then added a RB. Ravens in 00 with Lewis. Patriots in 01 with Smith & 03 with Dillon. Colts in 06 with Addai. This has me thinking about solution #5.....

 

Solution 5: Basically ignore RB this year. Draft at best a 3rd rounder(you never know) and give the team(esp. the OL) a year to gel. Use all the resources available this year to fix the rest of the team. Then, next off-season....hopefully the team is looking to be on the verge.....add a 1st round RB or decent FA RB. With a young defense with a few years experience, a probowl level QB & WR and a very solid OL, one would hope that any half good RB would produce at above average levels......and with a bit of luck the team might emulate the superbowl winners mentioned above.

For what it's worth, I'm with you. If AP fell to 12 I'd try to trade down. I think this gives us a better, more balanced team in the long term and a better shot at going further in the playoffs when we get there. I think the rb draft pick this year should be a third down back who can scare people. If we come out of the gate really well this year, you can trade next years draft picks for someone who can help. I think playoffs are a two year process for us (unfortunately) and we are best served by using this draft class where it's strong and fill as many holes as we can besides a starting rb.

[apuszczalowski]

For what it's worth, I'm with you. If AP fell to 12 I'd try to trade down. I think this gives us a better, more balanced team in the long term and a better shot at going further in the playoffs when we get there. I think the rb draft pick this year should be a third down back who can scare people. If we come out of the gate really well this year, you can trade next years draft picks for someone who can help. I think playoffs are a two year process for us (unfortunately) and we are best served by using this draft class where it's strong and fill as many holes as we can besides a starting rb.

But the Bills really only have 2 major holes needing filling, RB and LB, with CB and a WR/TE/FB coming next.

 

It all depends on what people think will create a winner, a couple of top players at their position, or a bunch of 2nd tier guys fighting for a roster spot. Do the Bills need quantity or quality? Since LB and RB require starters, Quality is a better choice then quantity right now.

[Fewell733]

But the Bills really only have 2 major holes needing filling, RB and LB, with CB and a WR/TE/FB coming next.

 

It all depends on what people think will create a winner, a couple of top players at their position, or a bunch of 2nd tier guys fighting for a roster spot. Do the Bills need quantity or quality? Since LB and RB require starters, Quality is a better choice then quantity right now.

 

FYI - Marv and co. said today that we are not going to carry a FB for next season and will be relying on TE's to fill that need when called for. This is because the offense will almost exclusively be one back sets.

[apuszczalowski]

FYI - Marv and co. said today that we are not going to carry a FB for next season and will be relying on TE's to fill that need when called for. This is because the offense will almost exclusively be one back sets.

Oh, ok, I didn't hear that about the FB spot, I think then going off of what they said last year, Cieslak will be the TE/FB like they tried and said last year. I only used the FB in there because they don't have one on the roster, and I also don't believe they really need a TE but drafting another receiveing threat like a WR or TE would be a nice compliment to their offence

[4BillsintheBurgh]

But the Bills really only have 2 major holes needing filling, RB and LB, with CB and a WR/TE/FB coming next.

 

It all depends on what people think will create a winner, a couple of top players at their position, or a bunch of 2nd tier guys fighting for a roster spot. Do the Bills need quantity or quality? Since LB and RB require starters, Quality is a better choice then quantity right now.

In order to make a run in the playoffs you need quality backups. Not Tim Anderson type backups. They don't have to be world beaters but you need them to play well. If one of our DT's, lb's or cb's goes down, is there a decent backup that can fill in? And as far as holes I think we need a starting OLB for next year, the current situation reminds me of post-Milloy last year. All the other positions at least have a qualified/potential player in them. As for RB, A-Train is not a long term answer. If they are going to do RBBC this year, how many carries will you need from the starter? 10-15 a game? A-Train can do that given his past record. Why use a 1st rnd pick to fill that need? I would be happy with any of Branch, Okoye, L Brown, Willis/Poz, Hall/Revis or Meachem if Marv & co thought the value was there. This would be a great year to be able to trade down a few spots and add picks. Marv has certainly notified every GM in the league that he is dealin'. We can trade up next year with the thought that we are only a player or two away.

[NewEra]

Why isn't Anthony Thomas a viable #1 option? This blows my mind that people don't think he wouldn't fill in nicely switching time with another RB. I think the once Rookie of the Year is definitley a prime prospect to lead this teams backfield, but that's just me.

 

LOL

[Pyrite Gal]

But the Bills really only have 2 major holes needing filling, RB and LB, with CB and a WR/TE/FB coming next.

 

It all depends on what people think will create a winner, a couple of top players at their position, or a bunch of 2nd tier guys fighting for a roster spot. Do the Bills need quantity or quality? Since LB and RB require starters, Quality is a better choice then quantity right now.

 

Someone made a pitch for the importance of back-ups below and I agree, In particular Leonhard currently is second on the depth chart at both safety positions and I pretty much expect the Bills to go for a safety in this draft and probably as early as they can since this player is not going to be an optional development player for this team but he will play in 07 (and if we have some bad luck with injuries or any sophomore slump by our two starting safeties this player may see some critical situations).