Turner likely to stay in SD

[BUFFALOTONE]

Why trade a player who does a very good job at filling a vital role on the team for a 2nd round draft pick that may not be able to contribute immediately?

 

AJ Smith isn't going to lower his asking price, nor should he. Turner's value to the Chargers is greater than his value to the teams interested in trading for him.

 

But it wont be in a year. So what you have Turner for one more year then he leaves and you get shiit for home. Only one guy can carry the ball at one time, they can find a very capable RB to spell LT when he needs it. granted he might not be as good as Turner but none the less it makes sense to get what you can. Who knows the pick they trade for could be a huge difference maker. SD needs WR's badly and another corner to go with Cromartie on the other side. It makes alot of sense to let him walk after a year and get absolutely nothing when teams are offering 2nd round picks.

 

Smith is waiting to see what he can get in the draft. He is a smart guy and knows that this years class is fairly weak and Turner could be a desperation choice for some teams in need of a RB.

[Brandon]

That's not true. he could be very valuable to the Bills, Titans, Packers or another team. A serviceable back-up could keep the Chargers on basically the same level. Unless, he is a top five or so back in the league, the Chargers arent winning the SB without LT.

 

I agree that AJ doesn't have to trade him and won't for a crappy deal just so he gets something. I just think it's coming down to the wire and it's extremely difficult for the Bills or Titans as well as the Chargers to know just how far to go without going over.

 

Yes, a serviceable back-up could adequately replace Turner, but that's the problem. There are absolutely no guarantees that the Chargers can find a serviceable backup. And in what round do they have to draft him? Its a pretty questionable trade for the Chargers if they gain a 2nd from Turner, only to have to turn around and use a 2nd-4th on a totally unproven rookie to replace him. It only makes sense for the Chargers to take that risk if they reasonably believe that doing so can make a dramatic upgrade to their team in 2007. That's why AJ seems to be insisting on a #1 and rightfully so.

[Pyrite Gal]

This draft is so weak that only about 18 players carry real 1st round grades.

 

The Bills have a chance to get one at #12.

 

Why would they give up a likely starter for multiple back up / scrubs in a weak draft?

 

The problem is that even of the best 18 there few are really all that great.

 

Even in a draft with a lot talent (by most folks estimate) like last year, the 1st round was far from a certainty in terms of the choices being definite great players.

 

The facts simply are that of the 32 first round choices in what was viewed as a pretty strong draft my review a couple of weeks ago found that only 18 of these players were first on their team's depth chart at their position.

 

The conventional wisdom is that the 1st round of a draft should produce a player who will contribute as a starter his first year and if one does it right will be an immediate starter if he is a top 10 choice. The reality was that this proved to be true even in last year's fairly strong draft to be true a bit above 50% of the time.

 

Particularly at LB where this class overall looks fairly weak with none of the players (Willis being the best of them) is seen as a consensus choice to be a top 10 player, this draft unfortunately looks too much like a crap shoot.

 

What are the Bills to do? How do we choose in the quantity versus quality quandary?

 

My sense is that the obvious answer is that you try to go for both. The top grade talent at both RB and LB have too many limitations for us to bank on them as would be required if we invest everything in them.

 

None of the 1B choices look all that strong, but then neither do the 1A choices so if we can trade down and get two 1Bs to compete against each other, this strikes me as a far better strategy than simply assuming that any of the 1As (Peterson and Willis) will work out for sure.

 

Even IF either of these players are as good as advertised, the possibility of injury which wrecks our season are too high.

 

Even IF either of these players ultimately turn out to be multi-time Pro Bowl quality, this may be that their course to glory is like that of a Larry Johnson and his first two years before he starts his Pro Bowl run were pretty unproductive.

 

It is not so much that I have faith in any specific players it that I do have more faith in competition than I do in any specific players. Even of they are good there is simply too much that can go wrong for us to bet the ranch and the dog on either Peterson or Willis.

[Brandon]

But it wont be in a year. So what you have Turner for one more year then he leaves and you get shiit for home. Only one guy can carry the ball at one time, they can find a very capable RB to spell LT when he needs it. granted he might not be as good as Turner but none the less it makes sense to get what you can. Who knows the pick they trade for could be a huge difference maker. SD needs WR's badly and another corner to go with Cromartie on the other side. It makes alot of sense to let him walk after a year and get absolutely nothing when teams are offering 2nd round picks.

 

Smith is waiting to see what he can get in the draft. He is a smart guy and knows that this years class is fairly weak and Turner could be a desperation choice for some teams in need of a RB.

 

You're right about one thing. His value to the Chargers next year will next to nothing (they rarely sign FAs and probably will get an '09 compensatory for him). But the Chargers are a Super Bowl contending team NOW. They don't need draft picks. They need players they can rely on this upcoming season.

 

Additionally, if this is such a weak RB class (and I believe it is), Turner becomes even more valuable to the Chargers as it would seem to be more difficult to replace him.

[The Tomcat]

He's definitely not going to like it, but at the same time, he's right. Turner could potentially benefit from this a year down the road. In fact, teams may be willing to pay him a LOT more money knowing that they also don't have to give up a draft pick in the process.

 

I don't know...there are supposed to be a lot of good to great backs coming out next year.

[Gordio]

He plays RB. They have a genuine opportunity to get injured on every single play. I don't think RB's like the idea of 'waiting until next year' to sign their extension. Even RB's who get franchised make good coin for one year, but are risking A LOT more coin because of the injury potential while playing out that one-year franchise contract.

 

I totally agree with this. Turner could cut wrong in a non contact drill in training camp & blowout his knee. Why would you want to wait a year when if traded a guaranteed 17-20 million is likely sitting on the table for you this year.

[Brandon]

I don't know...there are supposed to be a lot of good to great backs coming out next year.

 

Possibly, but as I remind everyone that touts the '08 RB class, its almost entirely reliant upon juniors declaring themselves eligible. Its also dependent upon those guys having good seasons and staying healthy. None of that is a given and these classes that look great a year out have often evaporated by the time the draft actually occurs.

[Kelly the Dog]

People are always looking for the bad guy and the fool but there really doesn't appear to be one here. The simple fact appears to me that Michael Turner is a very good RB prospect, worth somewhere between the first and second round. He's quite valuable to both the team that has him and the teams that want him. Everyone is trying to put a monetary/draft pick value on him, an inexact science, and they're all pretty close to each other. The Chargers are asking for the most, hoping for something close, unwilling at something too far away. The Bills and Titans are mirror opposites. None of the teams have to make this move. It's becoming more likely to me that something creative, a combination of choices in this draft and next year's draft will eventually be what two teams can settle on, save face, and make it worthwhile.

[IDBillzFan]

You know what makes absolutely no sense to me? "AJ The Godlike" insists that six teams are interested and he's not budging from his 1st and 3rd, despite being open to creative ways to meeting those demands. Then, a moment later in the same interview, he says this:

“If nothing happens, I'm perfectly happy to have Michael return here at $2.35 (million),” Smith says. “He'll be a backup here and kick returner. People say A.J.'s stupid to bring him back and (eventually) let him walk. The league probably will throw me a No. 4 (compensatory pick) if that happens. I'll take a 4.

 

I don't get it, AJ. You'll take a 4, but you won't back down off your 1st and 3rd?

 

I've always like AJ, but he's starting to believe his own press ("If you want what he's got, don't plan on robbery. Isn't going to happen while The Duke's wearing the badge and holding the ace.") and I have to admit he's starting to sound a bit stupid.

[Kelly the Dog]

You know what makes absolutely no sense to me? "AJ The Godlike" insists that six teams are interested and he's not budging from his 1st and 3rd, despite being open to creative ways to meeting those demands. Then, a moment later in the same interview, he says this:

“If nothing happens, I'm perfectly happy to have Michael return here at $2.35 (million),” Smith says. “He'll be a backup here and kick returner. People say A.J.'s stupid to bring him back and (eventually) let him walk. The league probably will throw me a No. 4 (compensatory pick) if that happens. I'll take a 4.

 

I don't get it, AJ. You'll take a 4, but you won't back down off your 1st and 3rd?

 

I've always like AJ, but he's starting to believe his own press ("If you want what he's got, don't plan on robbery. Isn't going to happen while The Duke's wearing the badge and holding the ace.") and I have to admit he's starting to sound a bit stupid.

I think he's being pretty straight forward here. He's already said numerous times that he will accept less than first and third, but is holding out for a #1 at this time. People are apparently offering him a #2 which he at this time is unwilling to agree to. The choice of getting a 2 or a 3 and losing Turner this year is not worth it to him, as opposed to keeping Turner this year and getting a #4. That makes perfect sense to me, and is probably true.

[IDBillzFan]

The choice of getting a 2 or a 3 and losing Turner this year is not worth it to him, as opposed to keeping Turner this year and getting a #4. That makes perfect sense to me, and is probably true.

It just doesn't make sense to me, but I don't do this for a living, so my opinion is pretty lame. I suspect beneath all of this is a GM who knows there is a very, very good chance that before this season ramps up, someone will be in desperate need for a running back and won't have a choice but to meet his requirements to fill an unexpected hole.

[silvermike]

IF he gets a 4th round pick, questionable at best, it would be in the 2009 draft. So the options for the Chargers are a 2007 2nd round pick or a year of Turner being your backup and a 2009 4th round pick.

[Steely Dan]

You know what makes absolutely no sense to me? "AJ The Godlike" insists that six teams are interested and he's not budging from his 1st and 3rd, despite being open to creative ways to meeting those demands. Then, a moment later in the same interview, he says this:

“If nothing happens, I'm perfectly happy to have Michael return here at $2.35 (million),” Smith says. “He'll be a backup here and kick returner. People say A.J.'s stupid to bring him back and (eventually) let him walk. The league probably will throw me a No. 4 (compensatory pick) if that happens. I'll take a 4.

 

I don't get it, AJ. You'll take a 4, but you won't back down off your 1st and 3rd?

 

I've always like AJ, but he's starting to believe his own press ("If you want what he's got, don't plan on robbery. Isn't going to happen while The Duke's wearing the badge and holding the ace.") and I have to admit he's starting to sound a bit stupid.

 

What he means is he gets Turner as insurance for one year and then will get a fourth rounder. If he settles for a second rounder this year the two round fall is worth the insurance policy. He's doing the smart thing. There is always someone willing to pay way too much. Cough, does anyone remember a guy called RJ, Cough, cough!! This actually helps Buffalo because the high second round pick is what Buffalo owns. Now if one of the other four teams, that may or may not exist, has a higher pick then they might lose and if not they might win Turner.

 

TSN's draft guide give the RB position in this draft an A- and Lindy's gives it a B. Not too bad. Personally I would avoid Peterson and Lynch. They aren't first rounders IMO. Peterson because he's brittle and Lynch because of character problems.

 

The second round is where the gems of this draft are. Last Year Maurice Jones-Drew was a second rounder. Jerious Norwood was a third rounder. Leon Washington a fourth rounder.

 

The best depth in this draft for RB's is second round. Brian Leonard (my favorite in this draft), Antonio Pittman and Kenny Irons carry second round grades.

 

The teams that need RB's are; Buffalo, Browns, Houston, Tenessee, Oakland, Green Bay, Arizona.

 

6 teams other than Buffalo. The Browns have Lewis but he's only a short term answer. They may wait til next year to take a back. It also depends on how much faith Oakland has in Jordan for this year. They may be willing to wait until next year. Green Bay is definitely going for one. Houston, I believe, will grab Peterson. Tenessee definitely wants one and Arizona may be willing to wait another year.

 

So let's say Houston grabs Peterson and Green Bay takes Marshawn Lynch. Now only four teams need a RB. The mock drafts I've seen have the Browns and Oakland passing on a RB in the second round. I believe, and hope that Leonard will be there and I think Buffalo will have taken the best back in the draft. The other possibility is that SD sees it's opportunity slipping away and trades Turner for Buffalo's second rounder. I'd rather have that than Leonard but not by much.

 

If the Browns and Oakland take RB's then one of the backs I listed will be left for Buffalo. Things aren't as dire as they seem.

[obie_wan]

What he means is he gets Turner as insurance for one year and then will get a fourth rounder. If he settles for a second rounder this year the two round fall is worth the insurance policy. He's doing the smart thing. There is always someone willing to pay way too much. Cough, does anyone remember a guy called RJ, Cough, cough!! This actually helps Buffalo because the high second round pick is what Buffalo owns. Now if one of the other four teams, that may or may not exist, has a higher pick then they might lose and if not they might win Turner.

 

TSN's draft guide give the RB position in this draft an A- and Lindy's gives it a B. Not too bad. Personally I would avoid Peterson and Lynch. They aren't first rounders IMO. Peterson because he's brittle and Lynch because of character problems.

 

The second round is where the gems of this draft are. Last Year Maurice Jones-Drew was a second rounder. Jerious Norwood was a third rounder. Leon Washington a fourth rounder.

 

The best depth in this draft for RB's is second round. Brian Leonard (my favorite in this draft), Antonio Pittman and Kenny Irons carry second round grades.

 

The teams that need RB's are; Buffalo, Browns, Houston, Tenessee, Oakland, Green Bay, Arizona.

 

6 teams other than Buffalo. The Browns have Lewis but he's only a short term answer. They may wait til next year to take a back. It also depends on how much faith Oakland has in Jordan for this year. They may be willing to wait until next year. Green Bay is definitely going for one. Houston, I believe, will grab Peterson. Tenessee definitely wants one and Arizona may be willing to wait another year.

 

So let's say Houston grabs Peterson and Green Bay takes Marshawn Lynch. Now only four teams need a RB. The mock drafts I've seen have the Browns and Oakland passing on a RB in the second round. I believe, and hope that Leonard will be there and I think Buffalo will have taken the best back in the draft. The other possibility is that SD sees it's opportunity slipping away and trades Turner for Buffalo's second rounder. I'd rather have that than Leonard but not by much.

 

If the Browns and Oakland take RB's then one of the backs I listed will be left for Buffalo. Things aren't as dire as they seem.

 

I wopuld prefer to have Brandon Jackson as an everydown back with upside or Lorenzo Booker as a 3rd down homerun hitter rather than the 2nd tier backs listed.

[JAMIEBUF12]

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/charg...1s17canepa.html

 

 

 

 

read this article.......they are now saying michael will be traded on draft day.and that a.j smith is god or jesus or something...lol lol..go bills in"07

[Steely Dan]

I wopuld prefer to have Brandon Jackson as an everydown back with upside or Lorenzo Booker as a 3rd down homerun hitter rather than the 2nd tier backs listed.

 

If Michael Bush is available in the fifth round no matter what Buffalo has done at RB they should take him. It sounds unlikely he'll be there but with his recent second surgery he may well be. If he comes back strong they may be able to trade him for a higher draft pick.

 

Jackson is ok but Leonard is 4"'s taller and runs the same 40. He also is a great team leader who oozes character and smart. He is the most versatile back in the draft.

 

Booker wasn't even good enough to start in college. He shared carries. A seventh rounder in my opinion that will be taken long before then.

[Saint Doug]

I know everyone wants to be a stand-up "character guy," but why isn't Turner and his agent crying for a trade like everyone else in the NFL? I just find it weird. We have people making over 8 million per year crying for trades. Turner will be making 2.5 million next year, but this is only a 1 year contract. Just like everyone else with a 1 year contract, he is one injury away from being out of the NFL. Why isn't Turner pleading for a trade? He could be looking at a least a $30 million contract over multiple years and would be set.

[Kent H Jr]

I know everyone wants to be a stand-up "character guy," but why isn't Turner and his agent crying for a trade like everyone else in the NFL? I just find it weird. We have people making over 8 million per year crying for trades. Turner will be making 2.5 million next year, but this is only a 1 year contract. Just like everyone else with a 1 year contract, he is one injury away from being out of the NFL. Why isn't Turner pleading for a trade? He could be looking at a least a $30 million contract over multiple years and would be set.

So let the high character bum stay there! we already have a very good back up form a great runner, why don't we go and take AP? forget about his ?'s on injuries, last time we drafted a "bum knee" guy from Oklahoma we fared pretty well if I rememeber right...

Go Bills!

[ndirish1978]

This draft is so weak that only about 18 players carry real 1st round grades.

 

The Bills have a chance to get one at #12.

 

Why would they give up a likely starter for multiple back up / scrubs in a weak draft?

 

Just cause a player doesn't have a 1st rd grade doesn't mean they're a scrub. There are plenty of starters to be found in later rounds.

[Brandon]

Just cause a player doesn't have a 1st rd grade doesn't mean they're a scrub. There are plenty of starters to be found in later rounds.

 

I think that's probably true this year, but lets not forget the 2000 draft. Everyone remembers that draft for being terrible for the Bills, but that draft was a turd almost from start to finish. There were a few good players after the middle of R2, but they were few and far between. Those drafts happen about once every decade or so, and while I don't think that this draft sucks THAT bad, its probably the weakest since that time.