Kipers 2006 Draft Success

[JimBob2232]

I did this quick, but here is the results I was able to get out of the 2006 draft. (Based on an early April 06 Kiper Mock)

 

First Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 4 (D'Brick, Hawk, Davis, Mercedes Lewis)

Of the 32 picks, Kiper correctly identified 26 of them (missed Carpenter, Hali, Joseph, Mangold, Addai and Kiwi) as being first round picks

 

Second Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 0

Correct Team, but wrong Pick number - 2 (McIntosh, Justice)

Of the 32 picks, Kiper correctly identified 15 of them as being 2nd round picks

 

Third Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 0

Correct Team, but wrong Pick number - 3 (Winston, Youboty, Pope)

Of the 33 picks, Kiper correctly identified 12 of them as being 3rd round picks

 

Summary

In the ENTIRE first 3 rounds, Kiper only identified FOUR correct picks (Team and Number).

In the ENTIRE first 3 rounds, Kiper only correctly identified 9 of 97 picks to the correct team.

Of the 97 players taken in the first 3 rounds, only 76 of them were in his 3 round mock draft.

 

So, someone tell me why we should listen to this Goober?

[DreamOnDan]

I did this quick, but here is the results I was able to get out of the 2006 draft. (Based on an early April 06 Kiper Mock)

 

First Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 4 (D'Brick, Hawk, Davis, Mercedes Lewis)

Correct

That's Hilarious

[JimBob2232]

That's Hilarious

 

Yeah, i hit enter and couldnt figure out how to delete it until I was done!

[Tortured Soul]

Where did he have us taking Youboty?

[JimBob2232]

Where did he have us taking Youboty?

 

I stand corrected. He did NOT have us taking youboty.. He had youboty going 31 overall to Seattle

 

here is the draft. Not sure how I made that mistake.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/ins...&id=2405172

[The Dean]

While I agree Kiper is a douche. is anyone doing a far better job at predicting the draft? That's a thankless job, IMO.

[Nostradamus]

While I agree Kiper is a douche. is anyone doing a far better job at predicting the draft? That's a thankless job, IMO.

Meaning, we all waste a HELL of a lot of time surfin the net checkin mocks out to see which expert got the latest "scoop."

[Dibs]

Meaning, we all waste a HELL of a lot of time surfin the net checkin mocks out to see which expert got the latest "scoop."

I remember last year thinking that all of the mocks that had D'Brick falling to us at #8 were obviously the most insightful & astute mocks out there.

 

A bit like the ones that have Peterson falling to us at #12 this year.

 

Rose coloured glasses......the only way to read mocks.

[Dan]

Don't all these mocks change every other day? That's why I always say if you don't like a certain mock draft... wait a day and it'll change. So which one do you finally judge as right/wrong? The last one just before the draft?

 

I think the only healthy way to look at any of these mocks is as a starting point for discussion. None of them seem very accurate in the end. It's entertaining discussion to help us football junkies get through another month of offseason, that's all.

[Acantha]

Don't all these mocks change every other day? That's why I always say if you don't like a certain mock draft... wait a day and it'll change. So which one do you finally judge as right/wrong? The last one just before the draft?

 

I think the only healthy way to look at any of these mocks is as a starting point for discussion. None of them seem very accurate in the end. It's entertaining discussion to help us football junkies get through another month of offseason, that's all.

And really I think that's how they are meant to be taken (in most cases). These guys are just putting things out there for discussion. I think people put far too much focus on Kiper's mocks. Kiper does a pretty good job with his write-ups and evaluation of talent.

[WVUFootball29]

I hit 6 correct last year (Hawk, Davis, Greenway, Wimbley,Lawson and Williams)

25 players i picked to go in the first round were drafted in the 1st

 

not too bad compared to Kiper if I do say so myself

 

Trades threw off my later rounds, hopefully there won't be as many this year to mess up my mock.

 

My 2006 Mock First round

Round 1 Pick # Player Position College

Houston 1 Reggie Bush RB USC

New Orleans 2 D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT Virginia

Tennessee 3 Matt Leinart QB USC

NY Jets 4 Mario Williams DE NC State

Green Bay 5 AJ Hawk OLB Ohio State

San Francisco 6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland

Oakland 7 Vince Young QB Texas

Buffalo 8 Michael Huff DB Texas

Detroit 9 Jimmy Williams DB Virginia Tech

Arizona 10 Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt

St. Louis 11 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon

Cleveland 12 Kamerion Wimbley DE/LB Florida State

Baltimore 13 Broderick Bunkley DT Florida State

Philadelphia 14 Winston Justice OT USC

Denver 15 Chad Jackson WR Florida

Miami 16 Santonio Holmes WR Ohio State

Minnesota 17 Chad Greenway OLB Iowa

Dallas 18 Donte Whitner S Ohio State

San Diego 19 Jonathan Joseph CB South Carolina

Kansas City 20 Tye Hill CB Clemson

New England 21 Ashton Youboty CB Ohio State

San Francisco 22 Manny Lawson DE/OLB NC State

Tampa Bay 23 Ernie Sims OLB Florida State

Cincinnati 24 Marcedes Lewis TE UCLA

NY Giants 25 Bobby Carpenter OLB Ohio State

Chicago 26 Antonio Cromartie CB Florida State

Carolina 27 DeAngelo Williams RB Memphis

Jacksonville 28 Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College

NY Jets 29 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota

Indianapolis 30 LenDale White RB USC

Seattle 31 Richard Marshall CB Fresno State

Pittsburgh 32 Sinorice Moss WR Miami

[Steely Dan]

Kiper knows a lot about the draftable players. I don't think anyone knows more. His achilles heel is that he doesn't know the teams very well. He doesn't factor things in like the Bills liking smart, high character, self motivated guys. He doesn't factor in that Matt Millen is going to make the dumbest pick he can for Detroit.

 

It is amazing he knows every prospect so well. Mike and Mike say they are amazed at how you can mention anyone draft eligible and he knows just about everything about them. Kiper also doesn't go as in depth on these players as teams do. I doubt Kiper talks to their pee-wee football coaches. NFL teams will.

 

I think it would take an Einstein (Albert not Norman) to know all the picks AND all the teams well enough. I don't know if he does this or not but, he should hire 16 guys to study two teams each and give him feedback on the type of guys each team covets.

 

You can't blame him for his shock at the Whitner pick. I don't know anyone who wasn't. I do fault him for saying the Bills should have traded down. First of all does he know they had a viable trading partner? Does he know that Detroit, who took a S in the second round, wouldn't have taken him if the Bills passed? The Bills would have only netted an extra 7th round pick to trade down. Whitner is looking like a stud so nobody can say it was a bad pick.

 

My brother who was listening to ESPN radio draft coverage with Mike and Mike asked if Levy was crazy for taking Whitner or Crazy like a fox. I'd say crazy like a fox. Ignore all the guys the Bills have talked about. Most likely they'll take someone else. I really like Brian Leonard out of Rutgers. Best all around back in the draft IMO. Very high character, smart, self motivated and versatile. However, The Bills website had an article on him which I think means he's not in their draft plans. They didn't even invite Whitner in for a pre-draft powow at the stadium. That's one reason I think Carriker may be taken but I don't think he'll still be there at the Bills pick. With character taking a much more important role now he's rising up the draft board.

[GG]

You're mixing two concepts rating potential draftees and guessing where those players end up. For draftnicks, it's much more valuable to know whether a player is Round 1 worthy vs Round 2 worthy, etc. Guessing where the players end up is more luck than anything else, given the multiple permutations each team goes through on draft day.

 

So for Mel to have ranked 76 of 97 players as having Round 3 talent (78%) is pretty damn good. It's also not too shabby to have ranked 81% as 1st round, 47% as 2nd round and 38% as 3rd round talent correctly.

[MDH]

You're mixing two concepts rating potential draftees and guessing where those players end up. For draftnicks, it's much more valuable to know whether a player is Round 1 worthy vs Round 2 worthy, etc. Guessing where the players end up is more luck than anything else, given the multiple permutations each team goes through on draft day.

 

So for Mel to have ranked 76 of 97 players as having Round 3 talent (78%) is pretty damn good. It's also not too shabby to have ranked 81% as 1st round, 47% as 2nd round and 38% as 3rd round talent correctly.

 

I was going to post something similar to this as well. I'm not even sure it's important if he correctly guesses which round they go in. The important thing is is how accurate are his assessments? In the end, are the players as good in the Pros as he predicts they will be. Kiper (or any draftnick) can't control what teams take which players in which rounds but he should be accountable to how well he assesses the players.

[nodnarb]

I've been signing this tune for a long time. Some people erroneously believe that Kiper is an insightful college scout. He was hired by ESPN to monetize the NFL draft for them. Make it palatable for viewing. He can speak a mile a minute and remember all kinds of forgettable data. Perfect. They also encouraged him to be controversial. In the early days, he was more than he is now that he's established and doesn't need to be controversial. He had fun blasting the Jets and Bengals for their 1st round picks and had very public arguments with their front offices. It's all in the ESPN archives. Might even see some of it in a couple weeks.

 

Kiper gets the vast majority of his information from others, not his own research. As a result, he has a history of being used by teams as a vehicle for misinformation. Hence his lousy track record. There are amateur websites with a far, far better record of predicting players per round and team per player/round than Kiper.

 

He's entertainment. That's it.

 

I did this quick, but here is the results I was able to get out of the 2006 draft. (Based on an early April 06 Kiper Mock)

 

First Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 4 (D'Brick, Hawk, Davis, Mercedes Lewis)

Of the 32 picks, Kiper correctly identified 26 of them (missed Carpenter, Hali, Joseph, Mangold, Addai and Kiwi) as being first round picks

 

Second Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 0

Correct Team, but wrong Pick number - 2 (McIntosh, Justice)

Of the 32 picks, Kiper correctly identified 15 of them as being 2nd round picks

 

Third Round

Correct Picks (Team and Number) - 0

Correct Team, but wrong Pick number - 3 (Winston, Youboty, Pope)

Of the 33 picks, Kiper correctly identified 12 of them as being 3rd round picks

 

Summary

In the ENTIRE first 3 rounds, Kiper only identified FOUR correct picks (Team and Number).

In the ENTIRE first 3 rounds, Kiper only correctly identified 9 of 97 picks to the correct team.

Of the 97 players taken in the first 3 rounds, only 76 of them were in his 3 round mock draft.

 

So, someone tell me why we should listen to this Goober?

[Brandon]

There are really only two media talking heads I bother paying attention to in the lead-up to the draft. Rick Gosselin, who is usually the most accurate of all the mock drafters (though its the last one published on the morning of the draft that you should read). The other is Mike Mayock of NFL Network.

 

The rest have about as much of a clue as I do, which isn't saying much.

[OnTheRocks]

I like Kiper, but I don't like him so much that I feel I would need to defend his picks.

However I think a better way to judge a draft nik is to see how many players he selected correctly would go in each round respectively.

Sure it is cool to see a guy go to the exact team correctly, but the chances of that are never very high.

[Steely Dan]

I was going to post something similar to this as well. I'm not even sure it's important if he correctly guesses which round they go in. The important thing is is how accurate are his assessments? In the end, are the players as good in the Pros as he predicts they will be. Kiper (or any draftnick) can't control what teams take which players in which rounds but he should be accountable to how well he assesses the players.

 

The problem you run into there is that some teams don't draft according to their own systems. A guy Kiper has rated as a first rounder may be contingent upon him going to a West Coast Offense or a 3-4 defense. If a team not running either of those systems takes the offensive or defensive talent they may not pan out. You also have to take coaching into account. If the teams coaching staff sucks it can hurt a lot. Some people think David Carr could have been much better if the team had ever bothered to get him an O-Line.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I'd be curious to see over a few years how he's done. Last year was sort of out of the ordinary the way the Reggie Bush/Texans thing shook out. Nobody thought twice that Bush was not going to Houston. This changed a lot, IMO.

[Bflojohn]

First off, I gave up on Mel's guide years ago. I subscribe to Ourlads who have their own set of problems predicting, but I like their steadfast belief in their "methods". This is strictly entertainment folks as they are NOT privy to physical exams, interviews, and internal scouting reports from 32 teams. Just consider it fun and you'll enjoy it more. One positive about Mel Kiper though, is his near perfect recall of prospects well into the 6th and 7th round.... they (ESPN's talking heads!) don't let him talk anywhere near enough, IMO!! The second day is truly BRUTAL for real football fans as they rehash EVERY pick on day one.