Hold On, Not so Fast.

[Dr. Trooth]

The Doc here... bringing trooth, reality, and most of all, sanity to the board. I realize everyone's got their predidtions and prognostifications... and I do as well. We think we have a clue... but we don't and neither do I.

 

 

First, let me say this about Peterson and Willis. Peterson is not a good fit for this offense. This offense is looking for a runner who hits the hole up the middle, can be an asset in the passing game and in short yardage. Peterson is an angular, down hill, always looking to hit the corner, runner. He needs a few steps to get started. He is not a quick hitter up the middle, and he needs space to be effective.... so, at #12, if he's there... pass. As for Willis, well, there's been a lot of conjecture over the past month on him. Some say he's moving up, some say he's moving down. I say, remember Mike Mamula, one of the great character guys and work out warriors in the pre-draft circus a scant few years back.

 

That out of the way, lets look at the big picture. Last draft the Bills plugged in 4 starters on defense (McCargo might have been the 5th had he stayed healthy) and one on offense. That's pretty damn good. But, take a look at Whitner at #8. Did he make a huge impact? Not really. Ko Simpson, taken in the 3rd rd., had slightly better stats than did Whitner. This is not to say that Whiner is not a very good player. He flat out is, and he's going to be a fixture for some time to come. My point is the Bills have demonstrated they can get value in Rds. 2-7 and get it right.

 

That said, the word on the street is that this draft is deep, albeit there are not a lot of home run hitters. After #10... there may not be a lot of distance between #11 and the next 40. But there sure is salary wise. Thus, the Bills could benefit enormously in this draft by selecting a lot of players to fill many holes on this team. It's no secret that they could use at least 3 LBs...one as a starter and the others for ST, depth, and starting potentiial. They need a RB, a WR, CB, depth at safety, and another DE (Schobel is 30 by the season opener, and a small, high motor guy like him will wear down in another year or two).

 

So, when the Bills are on the clock at #12., don't crap if they give that pick up for an extra 2 and 3. In rounds 2, 3, 4 there are players like Siler, Davis, Beason, Pittman, Walker, Ball, Tenard Jackson, etc. that the Bills could immediatley fill rolls on this team.

 

So, the moral is... don't get hung up on the Bills taking that one player at #12. There is no forgiveness if they select the wrong guy... and Peterson and Willis, IMO are the wrong guys for this team to take at #12.

[Beerball]

That aint my twooth, but I wouldn't have any problem with trading down for extra picks. Unless of course a player the Bills could have had at 12 turns into an overnight perennial All Pro and wins multiple Superbowls.

[JStranger76]

The thingy about Peterson not fitting the offense we run, what offense is that exactly? Many posters here think we run the Rams offense because Fairchild coached under Martz in St. Louis. THIS IS NOT TRUE. Fairchild has said he would run an offense to fit AFC East conditions because he knows we play in an outdoor stadium way up north people. I have been pleased with Fairchild so far because he seems to be willing to be flexible with his personel, which sadly hasn't been very good. Whether we take Peterson or any other back, I'm pretty confident Fairchild would be willing to tweak this offense a little bit to fit whatever skillset our new RB brings to the table. Make no mistake though, there will be a new RB on this team after the first day of the draft. Oh, by the way, good post Dr. I am in agreement about keeping our options open, but as far Peterson or Willis being the wrong guys, we shall see my good Dr...................

[obie_wan]

The Doc here... bringing trooth, reality, and most of all, sanity to the board. I realize everyone's got their predidtions and prognostifications... and I do as well. We think we have a clue... but we don't and neither do I.

First, let me say this about Peterson and Willis. Peterson is not a good fit for this offense. This offense is looking for a runner who hits the hole up the middle, can be an asset in the passing game and in short yardage. Peterson is an angular, down hill, always looking to hit the corner, runner. He needs a few steps to get started. He is not a quick hitter up the middle, and he needs space to be effective.... so, at #12, if he's there... pass. As for Willis, well, there's been a lot of conjecture over the past month on him. Some say he's moving up, some say he's moving down. I say, remember Mike Mamula, one of the great character guys and work out warriors in the pre-draft circus a scant few years back.

 

That out of the way, lets look at the big picture. Last draft the Bills plugged in 4 starters on defense (McCargo might have been the 5th had he stayed healthy) and one on offense. That's pretty damn good. But, take a look at Whitner at #8. Did he make a huge impact? Not really. Ko Simpson, taken in the 3rd rd., had slightly better stats than did Whitner. This is not to say that Whiner is not a very good player. He flat out is, and he's going to be a fixture for some time to come. My point is the Bills have demonstrated they can get value in Rds. 2-7 and get it right.

 

That said, the word on the street is that this draft is deep, albeit there are not a lot of home run hitters. After #10... there may not be a lot of distance between #11 and the next 40. But there sure is salary wise. Thus, the Bills could benefit enormously in this draft by selecting a lot of players to fill many holes on this team. It's no secret that they could use at least 3 LBs...one as a starter and the others for ST, depth, and starting potentiial. They need a RB, a WR, CB, depth at safety, and another DE (Schobel is 30 by the season opener, and a small, high motor guy like him will wear down in another year or two).

 

So, when the Bills are on the clock at #12., don't crap if they give that pick up for an extra 2 and 3. In rounds 2, 3, 4 there are players like Siler, Davis, Beason, Pittman, Walker, Ball, Tenard Jackson, etc. that the Bills could immediatley fill rolls on this team.

 

So, the moral is... don't get hung up on the Bills taking that one player at #12. There is no forgiveness if they select the wrong guy... and Peterson and Willis, IMO are the wrong guys for this team to take at #12.

 

You'd best be seeing a dentist, you have a serious absess in your logic.

 

 

You are probably correct that there is not a lot of difference of talent between #12 - 40. HOwever, not because this is a deep draft. This is actually a very weak draft with small pockets of good players. It is deep for WRs but very shallow in MLBs and RBs. Most mid round players from last years draft would be going 2-3 rounds higher in this draft.

 

 

The Bills need impact playmakers. The only way to get them is through the draft.

 

Willis will be a playmaker especially in this defense. You don't pass on him for more backups and training camp fodder. There's plenty of that already with our later day picks.

[Captain Hindsight]

not to harp on details but ko was a 4th round pick not a third

[MDH]

As for Willis, well, there's been a lot of conjecture over the past month on him. Some say he's moving up, some say he's moving down. I say, remember Mike Mamula, one of the great character guys and work out warriors in the pre-draft circus a scant few years back.

 

Willis is not a "work out warrior". The guy produced on the field during his time at Ol' Miss. He was the Butkus award winner and consensus 1st team all American last year and was on quite a few 1st team all American lists in 2005 as well. As we all know college awards don't necessarily translate into NFL production but to say he's a "work out warrior" and insinuate that he has shot up draft boards only because he has good combine numbers is ridiculous.

 

Personally, I'm all for trading down into the bottom portion of the 1st round (if there is a trading partner available) and grabbing Poz. I think he'd be just as effective as Willis and get us an extra pick to boot. I also wouldn't object to the Bills grabbing Willis at 12 and then trading back up into the 1st round (like the Bills did last year) and grabbing Poz too.

[Dr. Trooth]

not to harp on details but ko was a 4th round pick not a third

 

Thank you. If the Bills can score that type of player in Rd. 4 this year, it would be real sweet.

[Pete]

I would love to see the Bills trade down and stockpile day 1 picks!

[Bob in STL]

The thingy about Peterson not fitting the offense we run, what offense is that exactly? Many posters here think we run the Rams offense because Fairchild coached under Martz in St. Louis. THIS IS NOT TRUE. Fairchild has said he would run an offense to fit AFC East conditions because he knows we play in an outdoor stadium way up north people. I have been pleased with Fairchild so far because he seems to be willing to be flexible with his personel, which sadly hasn't been very good. Whether we take Peterson or any other back, I'm pretty confident Fairchild would be willing to tweak this offense a little bit to fit whatever skillset our new RB brings to the table. Make no mistake though, there will be a new RB on this team after the first day of the draft. Oh, by the way, good post Dr. I am in agreement about keeping our options open, but as far Peterson or Willis being the wrong guys, we shall see my good Dr...................

 

 

Your comments on Fairchild are right on. He never agreed with the pass happy Martz and pleaded to feature S. Jackson first.

 

Fairchild will tweak based on the talent and besides, how can a runner like AP not be a good fit?

[BuffaloBilliever]

English.

[clownments22]

to the dr.-

good post, however- i would be very suprised to see marv trade down, and all you need to do is look at last year's draft. while whitner became solid starter, he still was taken 8th overall, which almost everyone, including many on this board thought was a reach. i'm sure he has a player he wants, so i think he'll take a player at 12 rather than trade down. JMO.

[ExWNYer]

to the dr.-

good post, however- i would be very suprised to see marv trade down, and all you need to do is look at last year's draft. while whitner became solid starter, he still was taken 8th overall, which almost everyone, including many on this board thought was a reach. i'm sure he has a player he wants, so i think he'll take a player at 12 rather than trade down. JMO.

 

You're assuming that Marv and his staff are targeting one specific player at 12. What if they have three or four players in mind that they feel have similar grades? Why wouldn't you trade down? Don't assume that the Bills won't move up or down based on last year's draft. Much like a season, each draft is its own unique entity.

[mannc]

I agree with your logic, Doc, but trading down is easier said than done. For a lot of reasons, many more teams are looking to trade down than to trade up. Therefore, the price for trading down goes down--if you can find any partner at all. The only way it happens is if another team falls in love with someone who's on the board when your number comes up. I believe that's why the Bills did not trade down last year, and probably won't this year.

[The Cincinnati Kid]

I would also like the trade down but I do realize the unlikelyhood of it. I am a PUZ fan. I think that kid is going to be a pro bowl payer for years in the NFL and why not do it for the BILLS? I just feel like Willis is more of a freak athlete than great middle linebacker. I feel that sometimes people place too much emphasis on the 40 time and the vertical jump and other semi-important tests. Puz is a flat out great LB from Linebacker U and I do not see any risks in taking him at 12 but I would prefer it be later like 18ish. Plus if we trade down and get more picks we could have like 5 or 6 first day picks...NICE!

[ndirish1978]

You'd best be seeing a dentist, you have a serious absess in your logic.

You are probably correct that there is not a lot of difference of talent between #12 - 40. HOwever, not because this is a deep draft. This is actually a very weak draft with small pockets of good players. It is deep for WRs but very shallow in MLBs and RBs. Most mid round players from last years draft would be going 2-3 rounds higher in this draft.

The Bills need impact playmakers. The only way to get them is through the draft.

 

Willis will be a playmaker especially in this defense. You don't pass on him for more backups and training camp fodder. There's plenty of that already with our later day picks.

 

 

Thank you. The original post was actually quite bad and I appreciate that you managed to point out his flawed logic.