Quality over Quantity

[CAT]

I think Marv wants to plan for a championship team versus a solid team even if it means we have some gaps next year. That means trading picks for moving up and getting top rookies for 5 years versus depth with ok guys. Especially since we wont pay for impact free agents. We have extra 3s the next 2 years that can be used to move up inthe drafts. Lets say we do this to get 6 picks on the top 50 over 2 years and got impact players at rb,wr,te,lb,cb and dline. Plus resign LE and Jp. Would that be better than havig 2-4 extra picks? Lets shoot for a 12 win caliber team vs the saver/quicker 10 win team. Of course many think we are on the way down,not up.

[DreamOnDan]

I think Marv wants to plan for a championship team versus a solid team even if it means we have some gaps next year. That means trading picks for moving up and getting top rookies for 5 years versus depth with ok guys. Especially since we wont pay for impact free agents. We have extra 3s the next 2 years that can be used to move up inthe drafts. Lets say we do this to get 6 picks on the top 50 over 2 years and got impact players at rb,wr,te,lb,cb and dline. Plus resign LE and Jp. Would that be better than havig 2-4 extra picks? Lets shoot for a 12 win caliber team vs the saver/quicker 10 win team. Of course many think we are on the way down,not up.

Thats an interesting question.. If you look around the NFL, the first thing that comes to mind is the consistently in which the good teams draft well... What I mean by well is that they draft solid contributers in the later rounds, and Pro Bowlers in the top rounds. That being said, there is a ton of talented players in the draft. Therefore; as many picks as possible would make the most sense to me. One thing for certain, is that last year Buffalo drafted very very well in rds 3-7. Assuming Youboty earns the starting cb role. I doubt that our front office views that as an abberation. My opinion is that they believe that this is possible each and every year. I'd love to see Calvin Johnson in Blue and Red this year. But is there anybody else in this draft that is worth losing 2-3 potential starting football players for? When there is a possibility of Peterson falling to us, I don't believe its a smart decision to trade up quite yet. If anything, I'm all for trading down far enough to aquire an extra 2nd rd pick.

[NewEra]

I think Marv wants to plan for a championship team versus a solid team even if it means we have some gaps next year. That means trading picks for moving up and getting top rookies for 5 years versus depth with ok guys. Especially since we wont pay for impact free agents. We have extra 3s the next 2 years that can be used to move up inthe drafts. Lets say we do this to get 6 picks on the top 50 over 2 years and got impact players at rb,wr,te,lb,cb and dline. Plus resign LE and Jp. Would that be better than havig 2-4 extra picks? Lets shoot for a 12 win caliber team vs the saver/quicker 10 win team. Of course many think we are on the way down,not up.

 

 

I agree...while we do have several holes, quality players are the key. I'd rather 1 superstar rather then 2 decent players. We WILL fill the holes, maybe not this year, its not like we are going to win the SB this year. So get your stars when you have a chance and the rest of the pieces will fall into place. Get Adrian Peterson Marv. This is a chance to get a difference maker. Thats what we need right now. We have several role players. We need STARS

[DreamOnDan]

I agree...while we do have several holes, quality players are the key. I'd rather 1 superstar rather then 2 decent players. We WILL fill the holes, maybe not this year, its not like we are going to win the SB this year. So get your stars when you have a chance and the rest of the pieces will fall into place. Get Adrian Peterson Marv. This is a chance to get a difference maker. Thats what we need right now. We have several role players. We need STARS

 

One thing I'd be interested in knowing... How many STARS come out of the top 50 picks? I guess my point is, I'd rather take my chances, trust in my scouting department, and draft 10 guys that they think have star potential. I think we have poential STARs in Youboty, Simpson, Ellison, and potentially Pennington. The list goes on from previous picks that were made after the 50 mark. In my opinion, the top 50 guys don't pan out as often as we all wish...

[BillsVet]

There's only one problem with trying to build a dominating team year in and year out. The salary cap seems to involve itself at the most inopportune moment.

 

Few teams who continually draft well and are effective in free agency remain excellent for a lengthy period. At some point, coaching and savvy front offices have to make the difference. You look at what Philly, NE, and Indy have done. They've all jettisoned name players when their demands get high and/or their abilities drop. In their sted, they've acquired lesser names who fit the team concept and included some difference-makers at specific positions (DE, OT, QB, perhaps CB and RB)

 

I'm not convinced the Bills front office can play hardball and retain the talented players that may be drafted. Marv has spoken about retaining our own picks and not placing too much emphasis in FA. That's not a knock on them for letting Clements go...he was bound to leave anyway. Buffalo featuring a cash to the cap fiscal policy, does not lend itself to retaining your draft picks who become stars during their first contract. You want to sign them before they hit star-level, but if not, in our market they're gone.

 

One thing I will say about being 10-6 versus 12-4: both records will generally get you into the playoffs. And once you're there, it's a whole new season. Let's concentrate on getting to the playoffs ASAP and worry about being dominating the regular season later.

[JimBob2232]

A football team starts 22 players, a punter and a kicker.

 

If you average 3 starters every draft, and they stick around for 5 years (probably about average before the big payday), and can grab a late round punter and kicker, thats 17 of your 22 position players. Fill the other 5 slots in FA, and you are in good shape.

 

But if you average only 2 starters, thats 12 of 22 position players, leaving you to have to spend BIG BUCKS to fill those 10 remaining holes

 

The bills dont have BIG BUCKS. Even if they did, the salary cap would hurt. The key is really to draft at LEAST 3 quality starters ever year.

 

So, while I am all for quality over quantity, we need to get our 3 quality starters out of this draft. And moving up to get AP or CJ is just not in the long-term interest of the team.

[Original Byrd Man]

My philosophy is more is better. There are no guarantees with high picks(MW as an example but there are many others). As a GM I would try to unearth the diamonds in the rough so to speak. I think you see players after the first round have less emotional baggage, with a small drop in talent often times. Keep in mind Football is a "Team" game, not an individual one on one matchup.

[oregonbbfan]

The whole secret is good talent evaluators. These evaluators should both be scouts, coaches and management. Scouts can help make up a good draft board but the GM must be able to get consensus to determine value ( both financially and talentwise on the existing team also, ) and based on needs make good choices on whether to move up, down or get the best guy on his draft board. A management team who has a plan and sticks to it (unlike Donahoe ) and an owner who knows when to bud out or open the checkbook when necessary.

 

When the above is in place, then go to drafting as many ( quantity) good players as possible until you have a good base. This process gets you to a higher win level faster and before they become free agents. Once that base is in place, then you go for the one or two quality pieces to take you over the top. Now you have a team with home grown quality and stars, free agent quality and a winning team.

 

At the end of eaach year, a post appraisal should be looked at where your weaknesses are in scouting and decision making, and correct them.

 

Hopefully Marv has the talent evaluators, the plan and influence over Ralph to make the right choices through our second draft. We cannot afford misses on picks or FA's and compete. Go Bills!

[bbfan54]

My philosophy is more is better. There are no guarantees with high picks(MW as an example but there are many others). As a GM I would try to unearth the diamonds in the rough so to speak. I think you see players after the first round have less emotional baggage, with a small drop in talent often times. Keep in mind Football is a "Team" game, not an individual one on one matchup.

 

Lets rack up as many 7th round picks as we can then.

[obie_wan]

I think Marv wants to plan for a championship team versus a solid team even if it means we have some gaps next year. That means trading picks for moving up and getting top rookies for 5 years versus depth with ok guys. Especially since we wont pay for impact free agents. We have extra 3s the next 2 years that can be used to move up inthe drafts. Lets say we do this to get 6 picks on the top 50 over 2 years and got impact players at rb,wr,te,lb,cb and dline. Plus resign LE and Jp. Would that be better than havig 2-4 extra picks? Lets shoot for a 12 win caliber team vs the saver/quicker 10 win team. Of course many think we are on the way down,not up.

 

that is why the Bills will trade up to #10 to get Willis if they thinnk SF will take him.

[BillsVet]

I don't think the Bills are in the market to give up picks. With a host of needs, specifically LB, RB, CB, DT, and to a lesser extent WR, and TE, the Bills cannot afford to give up picks. I realize they may have one player on their radar like last season, but flexibility is the key to this draft. If Willis isn't there, well, who's the next best option? If anything, I can see them moving down to add 2nds and 3rds.

 

I'd be happy with Amobi Okoye and Patrick Willis. Both high-character, intelligent, and physically excellent players. If they're gone, the best thing in my mind is to trade down, unless they plan on drafting another DB.

 

Accumulating picks isn't a bad strategy because it provides flexibility. Of course, if there's a guy there that they want and is available, then make the pick.

[obie_wan]

I don't think the Bills are in the market to give up picks. With a host of needs, specifically LB, RB, CB, DT, and to a lesser extent WR, and TE, the Bills cannot afford to give up picks. I realize they may have one player on their radar like last season, but flexibility is the key to this draft. If Willis isn't there, well, who's the next best option? If anything, I can see them moving down to add 2nds and 3rds.

 

I'd be happy with Amobi Okoye and Patrick Willis. Both high-character, intelligent, and physically excellent players. If they're gone, the best thing in my mind is to trade down, unless they plan on drafting another DB.

 

Accumulating picks isn't a bad strategy because it provides flexibility. Of course, if there's a guy there that they want and is available, then make the pick.

 

so if the good players are gone at #12, what team will be moving up for the crap that we don't want?

[Bflojohn]

I recieved my annual Ourlads guide and they "spun out" some interesting numbers! 27% of ALL first rounders become starters, 18% in the second round and, get this.... 16 % of all free agents! The conventional wisdom notwithstanding, theoretically, IF the top 8 picks are right (starters), then the pickings are slim for the rest of us! Inexact science in my view! The only thing is that teams do OFTEN make critical mistakes on draft day and the real talent slides, at times.....Good luck to the Bills is my hope!

[BillsVet]

so if the good players are gone at #12, what team will be moving up for the crap that we don't want?

 

Each team has their own needs. I'm guessing that someone might want a player at 12 the Bills don't want. Like the most overrated WR in the draft, Ted Ginn. If he's available, and someone calls Buffalo for their pick, I say trade down if Okoye and Willis are gone. Because I'd rather have another second than take a guy that isn't a fit for the team.

[obie_wan]

Each team has their own needs. I'm guessing that someone might want a player at 12 the Bills don't want. Like the most overrated WR in the draft, Ted Ginn. If he's available, and someone calls Buffalo for their pick, I say trade down if Okoye and Willis are gone. Because I'd rather have another second than take a guy that isn't a fit for the team.

 

with a deep WR class, no one is going to trade up for Ted Ginn

[Pyrite Gal]

that is why the Bills will trade up to #10 to get Willis if they thinnk SF will take him.

 

I doubt they give up resources to trade up because:

 

1. I think people present a false dichotomy saying that a team has to choose either quantity or quality in the draft. It is obviously a balance being struck and a winning team better factor both items heavily into each choice or they will not be successful.

 

There is ongoing scouting going on at both the college and pro levels. The raw evaluations are collected, but the first cut shaping evaluations of the collected information is based on the end of the year assessments and meetings. The team looks hard at the 2006 season and it is all about needs there in terms of identifying shortcomings and strengths, The availability of talent from the draft, FA, likely UDFAs, trades and internal development are assessed and there is a back and forth as to whether the schemes chosen fit the players and whether players can be found to fit the scheme and depending upon how it fills perhaps a new scheme is needed.

 

2. The major piece of BPA work is done when the team compiles its draft board. They assess all the evaluations and determine for each position who is the best player available in the draft their in order and end up boiling all this BPA assessment down into what order should they pick people in the actual draft. Again they strike a balance between BPA and need.

 

For this season the needs of the Bills are quite concentrated. Rather than a player here or a player there, they essentially may only have two RBs on the roster (A-Train and TE Cieslak who can play FB) now who will be on the final roster. Williams is a vet now so he is in the mix, but dissatisfaction with the 3rd down threat he poses (no one feels he is a threat to go to the house on every play he is in and beyond being likely to gain 5-7 yards on a 3rd and 12 the Bills should be able to do better than SW. Fred Jackson is well regarded as the leading rusher in Europe but he is really simply the leading rusher in Europe and this can easily mean little by the time the roster comes down.

 

We are working hard to get FA Turner but even if we are successful this still we may well see 2 RBs taken in this draft and both will probably make the team.

 

In addition, we are not going to have 2 of the 3 LBs who started last year. We apparently hope that Ellison develops into a fulltime starter at WLB, but we will be picking at least one starter at LB in this draft and maybe two.

 

We currently have 4 first day picks- while these first day picks are most likely to start really none are guaranteed to start. Last years draft class was judged to be relatively strong, but still of the 32 first round draft picks while over a majority of these picks were ranked first on the depth charts at their positions, it was slightly over 50% of the 32 picks with 18 listed as starters but 14 were not. The conventional wisdom is that a first round pick should be a starter (and some folks are disappointed if they are not immediate starters but the fact was even in this strong class, it was more like a crapshoot in terms of real results if your expectation is that a 1st round pick will/should start in his first year. Sometimes it works that way and sometimes it does not.

 

Merely to have adequate starters this year, we need as many first day picks as we can get. Even then its going to be tough and we will need hard work and some luck to field a competitive team.

 

Not only is it a false choice between quantity and quality but the actual real choice to be made is taking an adequate shot this year or choosing to make 07 a rebuilding year with an expectation of a payoff later.

 

I am a future is now fan so I certainly vote take risks to make the team competitive taking a shot at the playoffs this year. I think Marv and co are unlikely to give up picks for a higher choice for several reasons:

 

1. In this business and in American society there is a regrettable but simply real impatience. Particularly after so many years of no playoffs, the Bills will have a tough time (and arguably cannot afford to invest in a long term building strategy which invites any sense that the team is giving up on the playoffs and producing this year, The Bills must work to credibly fill in key gaps at LB and RB and credibility in doing this means getting a few first day picks to fll the many slots and investment in one star at the cost of a couple of starters will probably alienate a lot of the media (its already started with ESPN, and this would be spread by a draft which focused on quality to the exclusion of quality that the bad press and actions would alienate many fans and impact attendance and then who know what happens with the franchise.

 

2. The Golden Boys are gonna wanna win now while their life and vitality are still here when given their age they have to wonder whether they will be around for sure even next season. They probably will but who knows what the future holds.

 

3. In his book, Marv remarked HCs who trade competing this year for building a team for the future were quite likely to not be around when the future came around. Marv's general inclination is to go for it now.

 

The difference between first and last place from year to year is quite small. With a little luck looking at the schedule I think with a good draft we may be able to go for it this season. Probably not but if one gives up before even trying the product is probably going to be less entertaining to all.

[BillsVet]

with a deep WR class, no one is going to trade up for Ted Ginn

 

In a given NFL draft, there are blue chippers and then the other guys. This year it seems like there are about 8 blue chippers and then there are the other less heralded guys.

 

C. Johnson, Russell, Thomas, Gaines Adams, Peterson, Landry, and perhaps Levi Brown and Quinn, are the blue chip guys. Ginn probably falls right after them. The #12 pick is almost no-man's land. Perhaps a team is looking at Ginn to be a deep threat for a woeful passing game. And maybe they're concerned he's going to get away if they don't get to the 12th pick. It's hypothetic, but there are only about 8 guys who are the marquee talent. The others may offer some excellent players, but they're not as obvious.

 

Besides, Ginn has probably the best speed in the draft. Everyone knows he's going to heal a little more and be able to run his 4.32 40s again.

[ThreeBillsDrive]

One thing I'd be interested in knowing... How many STARS come out of the top 50 picks? I guess my point is, I'd rather take my chances, trust in my scouting department, and draft 10 guys that they think have star potential. I think we have poential STARs in Youboty, Simpson, Ellison, and potentially Pennington. The list goes on from previous picks that were made after the 50 mark. In my opinion, the top 50 guys don't pan out as often as we all wish...

 

What a great question. I'd love to see a study that analyzes the historic results of the top 50. Has anyone out there come across a study that analyzes the success ratio of the top 25, top 50, 100, etc. draft picks.

[obie_wan]

In a given NFL draft, there are blue chippers and then the other guys. This year it seems like there are about 8 blue chippers and then there are the other less heralded guys.

 

C. Johnson, Russell, Thomas, Gaines Adams, Peterson, Landry, and perhaps Levi Brown and Quinn, are the blue chip guys. Ginn probably falls right after them. The #12 pick is almost no-man's land. Perhaps a team is looking at Ginn to be a deep threat for a woeful passing game. And maybe they're concerned he's going to get away if they don't get to the 12th pick. It's hypothetic, but there are only about 8 guys who are the marquee talent. The others may offer some excellent players, but they're not as obvious.

 

Besides, Ginn has probably the best speed in the draft. Everyone knows he's going to heal a little more and be able to run his 4.32 40s again.

 

Ginn isn't the best WR on his own college team.

 

He runs fast.

 

No one will be trading up for Ginn.

[CFLstyle]

The NFL draft seems to be, in my opinion atleast, hit and miss. There will be players who go in the first round who turn out no better than players taken in the 7th round, while there will be 7th round players who could become superstars. I think it's good to have as many draft picks as you can get, within reason of course, to make the chances of drafting those star players even better.