A Few Draft Scenarios

[WVUFootball29]

There is plenty of talk around the message boards, water coolers, and bar stools of Western NY about what the Bills should do with their first round pick this year. With each opinion offered there are plenty of scenarios to go along with them. Here’s what I see as options and scenarios that will be around on draft day.

 

Scenario 1: Staying Put

 

We have quite a few options at number 12. Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Amobi Okoye, and Paul Posluszny should all still be around at this pick. Right now Willis should be the pick to take at 12. We need LBs on this roster and it is a few picks too early to take Lynch or Pos. Okoye is an interesting and intriguing prospect because of his upside and almost limitless potential. However, with 5 DTs on the roster already and plenty of needs that need to be addressed on Day 1, this is a luxury that only Tom Donahoe would indulge in. Some people seem to think that AP might fall to us at 12. While it is possible, I’d say its probability is about the same as catching 4 of a kind on the river. Cleveland is likely to take him at 3, Minnesota is rumored to be interested in him as well, and Houston would be crazy not to take him at 10 should he fall that far. Which leads me to Scenario 2.

 

Scenario 2: Trading up

 

If Marv & Co. think AP is the real deal and the player we want, we might just trade up to get him, however, he would have to first fall past Cleveland to make it possible for us to trade up and get him. Washington is looking to trade out of the 6 spot, and according to the Draft Chart that pick is worth 1600 points and the 12 pick is worth 1200. To equal out the trade we would likely have to package another pick in the deal. We could package our 2nd round pick, but I think that would be too much to give up. If we were to make this deal I would swap the 6 and 12 picks and package in one of our 3rd round picks along with a conditional pick in 2008. Other than that, I don’t see any trading partners if we wanted to move up.

 

Scenario 3: Trading down

 

I’m not a huge fan of the idea of trading down in this draft, because as I’ve said before, I don’t think there is enough elite talent in this draft to warrant a trade down. However, if Willis and Peterson are gone I would prefer to trade down a few spots instead of reaching. Like I have said on numerous occasions before, I’m not high on taking Lynch at 12; I’m just not a fan of him. However, Green Bay looks to be very interested in acquiring Lynch in this draft. If they are interested enough we could swap the 12 and 16 picks and look to acquire either their 3rd round pick (78th overall) or some sort of 2008 compensation. At 16 we would more than likely be able to pick up Pos, or Timmons. That way we fulfill a need and acquire another Day 1 pick.

 

Wildcard: Michael Turner

 

While I do not feel he is worthy of a 1st round pick, it is still a possibility that the Bills make the move and acquire him. It would be a disaster for the Bills to use their 1st pick on Turner because it would take them out of the running for any of the top LBs in this draft and right now I see LB as a bigger hole to fill than RB. However, I would be more than happy to use a 2nd or 3rd rounder on him. This would allow us to fill holes in our depth chart a little more evenly and cost effectively.

[stuckincincy]

Scenario 2: Trading up

 

If Marv & Co. think AP is the real deal and the player we want, we might just trade up to get him, however, he would have to first fall past Cleveland to make it possible for us to trade up and get him. Washington is looking to trade out of the 6 spot, and according to the Draft Chart that pick is worth 1600 points and the 12 pick is worth 1200. To equal out the trade we would likely have to package another pick in the deal. We could package our 2nd round pick, but I think that would be too much to give up.

o fill than RB. However, I would be more than happy to use a 2nd or 3rd rounder on him. This would allow us to fill holes in our depth chart a little more evenly and cost effectively.

 

I'm having a hard time with CLE taking Petersen. Concerns about his injury must be considered. As well as them considering Quinn. They've made a number of bigger FA player acquisitions so far. I understand that some think HC Crennel is on the hot seat...but I get to see a lot of CLE games here, and even with their long history of injury that has spelled doom for their previous HCs, he has that club playing hard.

 

They had their DB corps decimated last season. Granted, a stretch, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if they selected that safety, Landry. Or of course the tackle Thomas is he is available. I'd be a bit surprised to see they would trade down.

 

2 cents.

[WVUFootball29]

I'm having a hard time with CLE taking Petersen. Concerns about his injury must be considered. As well as them considering Quinn. They've made a number of bigger FA player acquisitions so far. I understand that some think HC Crennel is on the hot seat...but I get to see a lot of CLE games here, and even with their long history of injury that has spelled doom for their previous HCs, he has that club playing hard.

 

They had their DB corps decimated last season. Granted, a stretch, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if they selected that safety, Landry. Or of course the tackle Thomas is he is available. I'd be a bit surprised to see they would trade down.

 

2 cents.

 

Right now I see them targeting Quinn, AP, and Thomas. All would be good fits for their offense. Landry would be a big acquisition for them as well, but at 3 that's just way too early I think. EDIT: Sorry forgot to add that I think they'll pursue Quinn in the draft as their main target.

 

Even if Cleveland doesn't pick him up, there are still at least 3 teams looking at him in the top 10.

[Tipster19]

I'm having a hard time with CLE taking Petersen. Concerns about his injury must be considered. As well as them considering Quinn. They've made a number of bigger FA player acquisitions so far. I understand that some think HC Crennel is on the hot seat...but I get to see a lot of CLE games here, and even with their long history of injury that has spelled doom for their previous HCs, he has that club playing hard.

 

They had their DB corps decimated last season. Granted, a stretch, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if they selected that safety, Landry. Or of course the tackle Thomas is he is available. I'd be a bit surprised to see they would trade down.

 

2 cents.

 

I have to agree, the Browns take Quinn. The leadership was lost last year the way Edwards berated Frye last year. They got Jamal, even if it's only for a year and how many high draft picks did Cleveland use in the last few years for pass catchers? I didn't get to the point of Weiss filling Romeo's ear about Quinn. Keep in mind that it best serves Weiss to have one of his QBs to be drafted so high, it makes for better recruiting for future QBs. The Browns can't turn their backs on a franchise QB.

 

To WVUFootball29. Staying put doesn't provide the replacements that we really need. Although Willis is great and we have a big need for LBs, Peterson is a bigger talent that addresses a bigger need for us. As long as he does get by Detroit and Cleveland expect us to trade up with Washington. We'll get a LB in the 3rd rd and at least another one or two on the second day of the draft. It's easier to play defense, and outside of a few LBs the rest of them are more comparable. Matter of fact the LB that I think Buffalo drafts in the 3rd rd isn't even a LB, he's a S. S Aaron Rouse is slipping a little bit and he'd be outstanding as a cover 2 LB ala Cato June. I purposely didn't mention the 2nd rd because I fully expect us to take a CB here.

[stuckincincy]

Right now I see them targeting Quinn, AP, and Thomas. All would be good fits for their offense. Landry would be a big acquisition for them as well, but at 3 that's just way too early I think. EDIT: Sorry forgot to add that I think they'll pursue Quinn in the draft as their main target.

 

Even if Cleveland doesn't pick him up, there are still at least 3 teams looking at him in the top 10.

 

I'd really be surprised it they picked Quinn. I see a lot to like about Charlie Frye, but the NFL is show biz first and foremost, and Quinn translates into gate receipts and trinket sales...so you never know.

 

It surely would be a big thing if they picked Landry...the pundits would crucify them endlessly...but their DB corps is a shambles. It would be a gutsy move, but I would understand it.

 

I was impressed with CLE's moxie last year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they make some noise this coming season.

[WVUFootball29]

I'd really be surprised it they picked Quinn. I see a lot to like about Charlie Frye, but the NFL is show biz first and foremost, and Quinn translates into gate receipts and trinket sales...so you never know.

 

It surely would be a big thing if they picked Landry...the pundits would crucify them endlessly...but their DB corps is a shambles. It would be a gutsy move, but I would understand it.

 

I was impressed with CLE's moxie last year. I wouldn't be at all surprised in they make some noise this coming season.

 

 

Agreed, I see a lot to like about Frye as well, but the hometown card with Quinn would mean a lot of added revenue. Plus Cleveland has been one of the worst drafting teams since they've been back. Edwards and Winslow are their only 1st round picks still on the team and Winslow has only actually played in 1 of his 3 seasons.

 

You know I would really like to see the look on Kiper's face if the Browns did grab Landry at 3...if you thought the backlash Buffalo got last year was bad....you ain't seen nothing yet. But if you are drafting on pure need instead of by player ratings, it would be a great pick for them.

 

To WVUFootball29. Staying put doesn't provide the replacements that we really need. Although Willis is great and we have a big need for LBs, Peterson is a bigger talent that addresses a bigger need for us. As long as he does get by Detroit and Cleveland expect us to trade up with Washington. We'll get a LB in the 3rd rd and at least another one or two on the second day of the draft. It's easier to play defense, and outside of a few LBs the rest of them are more comparable. Matter of fact the LB that I think Buffalo drafts in the 3rd rd isn't even a LB, he's a S. S Aaron Rouse is slipping a little bit and he'd be outstanding as a cover 2 LB ala Cato June. I purposely didn't mention the 2nd rd because I fully expect us to take a CB here.

 

Peterson is definately a bigger talent than Willis, but RB is not the bigger need in my opinion. We have 2 holes at LB to fill right now and only 1 at RB. AP would be a great back to have, I'm not going to lie, but DJ has already said that he would like to use RBBC this season, which means we don't need a feature back in the first round to be successful. I'd rather wait until the 2nd to pick up a RB...Brandon Jackson from Nebraska or Brian Leonard would be nice (Even though most draft "experts" have Jackson going in the 3rd)

 

I agree that you can still find solid defenders later in the draft, but you can find solid offensive players as well. Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis were both 6th round picks if my memory serves me correctly.

 

Also, I think it would be a mistake to grab a project LB as our first pick at that position. We need a starter that has game experience in the position. Later on Day 2 would be a better time to grab project players and experiments...not day 1.

[CosmicBills]

Peterson is definately a bigger talent than Willis, but RB is not the bigger need in my opinion. We have 2 holes at LB to fill right now and only 1 at RB.

 

This is where we part ways in your otherwise great post. The staff and front office is very high on Ellison on the outside and Crowell in the middle. In their eyes, there is one hole at LB right now, not two. Barring injury, Ellison will be the day one starter, as will Crowell.

 

The back up RBs on the roster now are not much better than the backup LBs we have in place. Coy Wire and Stammer don't exactly inject a feeling of confidence in the fans, though I suspect the coaches think much higher of Coy at OLB than we do based on how quickly they moved to lock him up to a multi year deal this off season.

 

That being the case, I think it's fair to say that the needs at LB and RB are equal. Both positions have 1 gaping hole to fill. If Peterson is available at 6, I would not be suprised to see the Bills make a move up -- though personally I would be against it.

 

Something in my gut keeps telling me the Bills don't have a RB or a LB targeted at 12. I can't explain it, it defies most reasonable logic, but I don't think they will take either Willis or Lynch -- even if both are available at 12.

[stuckincincy]

Agreed, I see a lot to like about Frye as well, but the hometown card with Quinn would mean a lot of added revenue. Plus Cleveland has been one of the worst drafting teams since they've been back. Edwards and Winslow are their only 1st round picks still on the team and Winslow has only actually played in 1 of his 3 seasons.

 

You know I would really like to see the look on Kiper's face if the Browns did grab Landry at 3...if you thought the backlash Buffalo got last year was bad....you ain't seen nothing yet. But if you are drafting on pure need instead of by player ratings, it would be a great pick for them.

Peterson is definately a bigger talent than Willis, but RB is not the bigger need in my opinion. We have 2 holes at LB to fill right now and only 1 at RB. AP would be a great back to have, I'm not going to lie, but DJ has already said that he would like to use RBBC this season, which means we don't need a feature back in the first round to be successful. I'd rather wait until the 2nd to pick up a RB...Brandon Jackson from Nebraska or Brian Leonard would be nice (Even though most draft "experts" have Jackson going in the 3rd)

 

I agree that you can still find solid defenders later in the draft, but you can find solid offensive players as well. Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis were both 6th round picks if my memory serves me correctly.

 

Also, I think it would be a mistake to grab a project LB as our first pick at that position. We need a starter that has game experience in the position. Later on Day 2 would be a better time to grab project players and experiments...not day 1.

 

I wonder if CLE has any thoughts about OSU's Troy Smith as a later pick. He's from the Cleveland area, and there was a blurb in the local paper here a month and a half ago that said he was up there chatting with some Browns folks.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

Honestly, I can't see trading up. We have four first day picks and we need to make them count.

 

 

1) Staying put I think Willis is the target guy. I don't see them taking a RB there and I really am beginning to like CB-Leon Hall but for some reason I think the Bills would address that later if they feel there's a need. I think they're counting on Youboty.

 

2) Trading down has it's merits. We could still get a LB like Beason or Posluzny and get any number of great RB's available in round two and three.

 

By trading down I think the wild card is that an extra pick (or two) either gives us an extra player or ammo to trade up earlier in one of the first three rounds to get another player we covet.

 

Imagine with the extra pick getting a guy like Dwayne Jarrett or Anthony Gonzales at WR or one of the premier TE's like Greg Olson or Zack Miller, and Brian Leonard would be a great luxury pick as well.

 

This is going to be an exciting draft.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

Coy Wire and Stammer don't exactly inject a feeling of confidence in the fans, though I suspect the coaches think much higher of Coy at OLB than we do based on how quickly they moved to lock him up to a multi year deal this off season.

 

I really like both of those guys as role players at LB and special teams. If one of those guys has to start we COULD be toast.

[LynchMob23]

The trade with GB is the only thing I disagree with - not because I don't think it's a good idea, but because Thompson will trade back, not up in the draft. He's known as a guy that likes to accumulate picks, not giving them up!