Whitner on Cold Pizza

[Dibs]

I don't believe this argument is still thriving.

 

If the anti-draft Whitner brigade are saying "The draft could have been better(giving reasons how)". They are probably right. What are the odds that Marv & Co. had the best draft possible? Very, very, very low.

So....YES!!!!!.....We could have done such & such.......YES!!!!......we might have gotten better value if we had blah, blah, blah.

 

Was the Whitner selection a bad selection?. In the real world, half of the top 10 draftees will never pan out. We all can agree(I hope) that Whitner will be at least a solid starter for years to come......so......it can't be considered a bad selection.....and may well prove to be(if he makes multi pro bowls) a very good selection.

 

Are people saying it was a bad selection? If they are, they certainly are not looking at the history of what actually makes a bad selection. Flowers, Williams come to mind. Whitner definitely was not a bad selection.

[Dibs]

Can't Bills fans disagree with somethin Marv does? The criteria of just being a good player on an of-late below average NFL team isn't enough. A top-10 pick has to be a difference maker and while Whitner might become a fine player, a building team doesn't have the luxury of selecting a player at a position like safety. Some positions on an NFL football team take priority and safety isn't one of them. Not at least with a top-10 pick.

Hmmmmm.

Is that a fact?

This is where I know people get caught up in the "what should be" rather than the "what is".

 

3 random top 10s

2000

Courtney Brown, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Peter Warrick, Jamal Lewis, Corey Simon, Thomas Jones, Plaxico Burress, Brian Urlacher, Travis Taylor

2001

Michael Vick, Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren, Justin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour, Andre Carter, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Jamal Reynolds

2002

David Carr, Julius Peppers, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, Quentin Jammer, Ryan Sims, Bryant McKinnie, Roy Williams, John Henderson, Levi Jones

 

You'd be lucky if 1 in 3 are difference makers.

Apart from the concept that Whitner may well become one of those difference makers (very few are difference makers in their rookie seasons), to expect a difference maker is an unrealistic expectation.

[Dawgg]

When Peter King states an opinion and I say he is right, that means I agree with that opinion. It is impossible to claim factually that ANY player was taken too early... but can you make an educated guess based on other team's needs and based on the Bills' needs? Absolutely.

 

But go ahead and pat yourself on the back, there buddy.

 

Thank you for admitting that your statement regarding to "Whitner was picked too early" was based on nothing and was merely your own opinion.

 

Thanks for playing

[Dawgg]

This draft was one of the most stacked drafts in years, very much unlike the 3 drafts you cite.

 

Hmmmmm.

Is that a fact?

This is where I know people get caught up in the "what should be" rather than the "what is".

 

3 random top 10s

2000

Courtney Brown, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Peter Warrick, Jamal Lewis, Corey Simon, Thomas Jones, Plaxico Burress, Brian Urlacher, Travis Taylor

2001

Michael Vick, Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren, Justin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour, Andre Carter, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Jamal Reynolds

2002

David Carr, Julius Peppers, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, Quentin Jammer, Ryan Sims, Bryant McKinnie, Roy Williams, John Henderson, Levi Jones

 

You'd be lucky if 1 in 3 are difference makers.

Apart from the concept that Whitner may well become one of those difference makers.....very few are difference makers in their rookie seasons.....to expect a difference maker is an unrealistic expectation.

[Dibs]

This draft was one of the most stacked drafts in years, very much unlike the 3 drafts you cite.

Only time will tell if that was the case......and in order to get a realistic expectation, one should gather information from multiple years. You'll find that most drafts have a similar result in the top 10 of about 1 in 2 being busts & under 1 in 3 being difference makers.

[Dawgg]

People are far too focused on Whitner, as if Whitner was the only option here. The factor you have to consider here is the deal that the Bills were presented in exchange for the #8 pick.

 

They were offered:

 

1. The #15 overall pick (which would save them $7M in guarantees)

 

2. An additional 2nd round pick (very valuable in a deep draft like last year's, where Maurice Jones-Drew, Marcus McNeill and Devin Hester were all 2nd rounders)

 

3. An additional second day pick

 

The question is this: Would the Bills have been better served AS AN ORGANIZATION making that deal? In my opinion, yes... because they "might" have been able to grab Whitner at #15 and in the worst case he is gone, there were plenty of good prospects to choose from in his place. If this was the 2000 draft, you're probably right... maybe you don't take that risk and trade down. But the 2006 draft was unquestiobly one of the deepest drafts in years.

 

Was the Whitner selection a bad selection?. In the real world, half of the top 10 draftees will never pan out. We all can agree(I hope) that Whitner will be at least a solid starter for years to come......so......it can't be considered a bad selection.....and may well prove to be(if he makes multi pro bowls) a very good selection.

[Dibs]

Only time will tell if that was the case......and in order to get a realistic expectation, one should gather information from multiple years. You'll find that most drafts have a similar result in the top 10 of about 1 in 2 being busts & under 1 in 3 being difference makers.

As further example for you.......

1995

Ki-Jana Carter, Tony Boselli, Steve McNair, Michael Westbrook, Kerry Collins, Kevin Carter, Mike Mamula, Joey Galloway, Kyle Brady, J.J. Stokes

1996

Keyshawn Johnson, Kevin Hardy, Simeon Rice, Jonathan Ogden, Cedric Jones, Lawrence Phillips, Terry Glenn, Tim Biakabutuka, Rickey Dudley, Willie Anderson

1997

Orlando Pace, Darrell Russell, Shawn Springs, Peter Boulware, Bryant Westbrook, Walter Jones, Ike Hilliard, James Farrior, Tommy Knight, Chris Naeole

 

As long as fans see the 'exciting' top 10 pick as an expected 'can't miss', 'difference maker', GMs will continually look bad.

[Dawgg]

Please don't confuse "Whitner was picked too early" to "Bills could have traded down", they are different.

 

In your head they might be different.

 

What Peter King said is below... I merely said that he is right... which is an opinion (since I need to spell it out for you)

 

Oh, but wait. Denver wanted to move up to the eighth spot, and Buffalo could have had the Broncos' No. 15 pick, still gotten safety Donte' Whitner of Ohio State and paid him less than they had to pay at No. 8. That was my only problem with the Bills' handling of their draft spot last year -- not drafting Whitner, who played very well as a rookie. Sometimes you win not only by getting the pick or picks from the trade-down, but also from paying the player less, which leaves you more cap room to sign additional players.

[Dibs]

People are far too focused on Whitner, as if Whitner was the only option here. The factor you have to consider here is the deal that the Bills were presented in exchange for the #8 pick.

 

They were offered:

 

1. The #15 overall pick (which would save them $7M in guarantees)

 

2. An additional 2nd round pick (very valuable in a deep draft like last year's, where Maurice Jones-Drew, Marcus McNeill and Devin Hester were all 2nd rounders)

 

3. An additional second day pick

 

The question is this: Would the Bills have been better served AS AN ORGANIZATION making that deal? In my opinion, yes... because they "might" have been able to grab Whitner at #15 and in the worst case he is gone, there were plenty of good prospects to choose from in his place. If this was the 2000 draft, you're probably right... maybe you don't take that risk and trade down. But the 2006 draft was unquestiobly one of the deepest drafts in years.

As I posted earlier.....if all you are saying is that Marv & Co. didn't have the best draft possible then you are not really saying much at all. It would be virtually impossible to have the best draft you could have.....at least it would be impossible to tell.

So okeydokeythen......Marv could have had a better draft. Does that mean he didn't have a good one?

[Dawgg]

While you're at it, take a look at what the Bills accomplished by trading down from #14 overall to #22 overall in 2001.

 

As long as fans see the 'exciting' top 10 pick as an expected 'can't miss', 'difference maker', GMs will continually look bad.

[syhuang]

In your head they might be different.

 

What Peter King said is below... I merely said that he is right... which is an opinion (since I need to spell it out for you)

Only in your head they are exactly the same.

 

Thanks for your opinion based on nothing. Next !!

[Dibs]

While you're at it, take a look at what the Bills accomplished by trading down from #14 overall to #22 overall in 2001.

.....or trading the #10 for Rob Johnson.......or the Saints trading an entire year & a 1st for Ricky. Trades are good when they turn out good & bad when they don't. Until they become history, nobody knows if they would have been good/bad. A trade down might well have landed us a bust in the 1st & who knows in the second etc......or might not. So Marv didn't chose to do a trade......so what? In hindsight it may have worked out better. If only he had his crystal ball on hand.

Remember.......2 birds are worth a hand in the bush.

[syhuang]

When Peter King states an opinion and I say he is right, that means I agree with that opinion. It is impossible to claim factually that ANY player was taken too early... but can you make an educated guess based on other team's needs and based on the Bills' needs? Absolutely.

Thanks for your another opinion. If you really wanted to discuss whether Whitner was picked too early, try to bring in Detroit when you make any so-called educated guess.

[Dawgg]

... and Bill... and most rational individuals. Oh well

 

Only in your head they are exactly the same.

 

Thanks for your opinion based on nothing. Next !!

[Dawgg]

Well... considering that:

 

(1) The Lions signed Kenoy Kennedy to a multi-year contract to be their starting strong safety

(2) He was only 28 years old at the time of the draft

(3) He led the team in tackles in 2005 and had a pretty solid year

(4) He has proven to be a very durable starting-caliber strong safety since 2001

 

... I think it might be safe to consider them out of the Donte Whitner sweepstakes.

 

But wait! Donte said so on Cold Pizza!! It has to be true!!!!!

 

Thanks for your another opinion. If you really wanted to discuss whether Whitner was picked too early, try to bring in Detroit when you make any so-called educated guess.

[syhuang]

... and Bill... and most rational individuals. Oh well

You are really good at shifting the focus.

 

I agree that there are other scenarios Marv could have done, but I don't agree with your "Whitner was picked too early" statement.

[Dawgg]

I referenced that trade because it was a very similar situation and a very similar trade proposal. The team in 2001, like last year, was rebuilding and had many needs. This involved a simple trade down and the Bills were able to fill many holes.

 

The Rob Johnson trade and the Ricky Williams trades are completely different in nature.

 

Why do we pay a nation-wide scouting department to travel the country during the year to scout out college players? Let's see what they can do!

 

.....or trading the #10 for Rob Johnson.......or the Saints trading an entire year & a 1st for Ricky. Trades are good when they turn out good & bad when they don't. Until they become history, nobody knows if they would have been good/bad. A trade down might well have landed us a bust in the 1st & who knows in the second etc......or might not. So Marv didn't chose to do a trade......so what? In hindsight it may have worked out better. If only he had his crystal ball on hand.

Remember.......2 birds are worth a hand in the bush.

[Dawgg]

but I don't agree with your "Whitner was picked too early" statement.

 

When the Bills were offered the #15 overall pick, they were targeting Whitner and could have deduced the following, by using simple common sense.

 

9 Detroit - Kenoy Kennedy under contract, no need for safety.

 

10 Arizona - Targeting a QB... plus have Adrian Wilson at strong safety, who was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2005

 

11 St. Louis - Corey Chavous under contract, no need for safety

 

12 Baltimore - Ed Reed is there... Need I say more?

 

13 Cleveland - Sean Jones, a 2nd round pick was their undisputed starter at strong safety.

 

14 Philadelphia - Dawkins, no need for safety.

 

15 Denver - Offered the Bills their pick and were going after Cutler

 

Does this mean Whitner would have been avilable at 15? No... nothing is ever for sure... but looking at the deal the Bills had and closely looking at who was picking behind them, the odds were in their favor.

[syhuang]

You forgot to mention that Lions switched to Tampa 2 after hiring Marinelli as head coach and Donnie Henderson as their defensive coordinator before 2006 season.

 

Other than Kennedy, Lions need another elite safety to play along side him. They did draft a safety, Daniel Bullocks, in second round last year. Bullocks played both strong safety and free safety in college and is listed as FS by Lions. It's not that different between SS and FS in Tampa 2 and Bullocks actually filled in for Kennedy when Kennedy was out several games last season. Bullocks is pencilled in as starter this year.

 

Did Lions consider Whitner a good fit to play with Kennedy in Tampa 2? No one can prove or disprove it other than Lions' officials. However, Whitner did have an exceptional workout at combine and ran 4.40 in 40 yard dash, same as Bullocks. Right after the combine last year, I remember there were even reports saying some teams considered to move him to CB.

 

Out of the Donte Whitner sweepstakes??? Try again.

 

 

Well... considering that:

 

(1) The Lions signed Kenoy Kennedy to a multi-year contract to be their starting strong safety

(2) He was only 28 years old at the time of the draft

(3) He led the team in tackles in 2005 and had a pretty solid year

(4) He has proven to be a very durable starting-caliber strong safety since 2001

 

... I think it might be safe to consider them out of the Donte Whitner sweepstakes.

 

But wait! Donte said so on Cold Pizza!! It has to be true!!!!!

[Dibs]

I referenced that trade because it was a very similar situation and a very similar trade proposal. The team in 2001, like last year, was rebuilding and had many needs. This involved a simple trade down and the Bills were able to fill many holes.

 

The Rob Johnson trade and the Ricky Williams trades are completely different in nature.

 

Why do we pay a nation-wide scouting department to travel the country during the year to scout out college players? Let's see what they can do!

See, I just don't get all the harping on about what happened. You(and others) act like it was a horrendous thing to not trade. When in fact it was a decision that at the time(without the benefit of hindsight) was totally reasonable to stay put & take the player they were obviously fairly certain had a great chance to become a very productive NFL player(as opposed to potential busts etc)

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush(I misquoted this last time).

 

Do you play poker(Texas Hold'em)?

Are you any good?

 

Let's say you have 77 & limp in to see the flop....and in the flop is a 7......but 2 diamonds.

It becomes apparent that somebody is chasing the flush. Now being a good player, you know that he only has a 1 in 3 chance of getting the flush & busting your trips 7s.

 

Do you.....

count on the odds & try to milk every cent from him.....or.....

bet BIG after the flop so that he cannot justify the chase.

 

If you milk & he hits the flush you lose it all.

If you milk & he doesn't hit you get more money.

 

Trading is the equivalent to milking in this situation. They knew what we had with Whitner(pretty much) & were content with a hefty profit. Had they traded & gotten unlucky, all of the players wanted might not have been there & we might have been left with bigger hit/miss players.....or ones that didn't suit the systems/team.

 

I know this was a long way to make a point but you seem to think that the gamble of trading up/down is an obvious when in fact it is taking a bigger chance than staying put & being safe.

 

You can say(hindsight) that trading probably might have been the better option......but you seem to constantly imply that not trading was ridiculously stupid/moronic/dumb/short sighted etc, etc when in fact it was a justifyable decission to trade/not trade at the time we selected.

 

Do you honestly expect Marv(or anyone) to have 'the best' draft possible?