The Lions really want Patrick Willis and may try to

[KOKBILLS]

This two problems with that is the money that it takes for a #2 pick...

 

Mort...Is that You?

[Tipster19]

Mort...Is that You?

 

 

No Forrest, it's the voice of reason.

[Dibs]

Yes because we made 1 really bad first round pick?

I honestly can't tell if you are serious or not here.

[obie_wan]

more likely the Lions will try to trade down to the lower part of top 10 and take Willis there.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Yes because we made 1 really bad first round pick?

Are you referring to Erik Flowers or Mike Williams as the ONE bad pick ?? Or the lesser ones... Willis McGahee and John McCargo (still an incomplete)??

[Pyrite Gal]

That was my thought as well. Oh, and better Detroit take Willis than NE. Mind you I will be ticked if we let Willis slip past 12.

 

I on the other hand will be quite happy if we trade down instead of taking Willis. If we trade down and get more resources so we can pick a couple of the RB's who are pegged as 2nd or 3rd round choices I think it helps this team since even if we trade down we still can pick the best OLB in this draft (Pos or Timmons depending upon how you rank them) or as DET is figuring, there is even an outside chance that Willis slips even further down the board and you can both trade down and still get him under some circumstances.

 

Willis is not enough of an elite player (a top 10 pick) and there are other options if he taken that I think the Bills can easily risk a trade down if he drops to them at #12.

[obie_wan]

I on the other hand will be quite happy if we trade down instead of taking Willis. If we trade down and get more resources so we can pick a couple of the RB's who are pegged as 2nd or 3rd round choices I think it helps this team since even if we trade down we still can pick the best OLB in this draft (Pos or Timmons depending upon how you rank them) or as DET is figuring, there is even an outside chance that Willis slips even further down the board and you can both trade down and still get him under some circumstances.

 

Willis is not enough of an elite player (a top 10 pick) and there are other options if he taken that I think the Bills can easily risk a trade down if he drops to them at #12.

Not sure why you insist on trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

 

The Bills need an impact MLB and have no one with any experince at teh spot.

 

There is only one player in the draft that they can have some confidence in starting at MLB. Others may get there, but they'd be crossing their fingers big time.

 

The Bills will make every effort to draft him, even considering a move up to #10- which may not be high enough.

 

If the Bills do trade down, Willis won;t last past the Rams at #13.

[Pyrite Gal]

Not sure why you insist on trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

 

The Bills need an impact MLB and have no one with any experince at teh spot.

 

There is only one player in the draft that they can have some confidence in starting at MLB. Others may get there, but they'd be crossing their fingers big time.

 

The Bills will make every effort to draft him, even considering a move up to #10- which may not be high enough.

 

If the Bills do trade down, Willis won;t last past the Rams at #13.

I would think if you were interested in impact you would have looked hard at FA for an MLB or would be more interested in Crowell than Willis. Willis is a very good prospect and easily the best of this LB crew.

 

However, I would think even a big Willis backer would have to acknowledge that his ability to have a big impact as a rookie is going to be very difficult to pull off as the MLB in the Hybrid Cover 2 we run.

 

Our D which is much like the Tampa 2 in that the MLB has deep coverage responsibility dividing the field into thirds with the safeties puts a large premium on the MLB making vet level reads on plays as he must cover like a safety on passes but fill the gap at the LOS like a DT on run plays.

 

I do not think anyone doubts that Willis is a bright high character guy, that as the Butkus award winner he is the best of this LB crew, or that based on his Combine showings he has the speed to do the deep cover.

 

However, in the same breath even a half rational person would need to acknowledge that a rookie is not gonna be able to make vet reads.

 

If we pick Willis and he starts, certainly I and all Bill fans will hope for the best, but opposing OCs will be licking their chops to face a rookie who is MLB in the Cover 2. I see no objective evidence that says otherwise.

 

If anything, the evidence out there is that folks were rightly impressed with the closing speed Willis showed in the Senior Bowl, but this often came after he struggled in pass coverage and would not give up as he chased down a man who had torched him.

 

Few folks if any objective analysts have Willis as meriting a top 10 pick which is what I mean when I refer to a collegian as an elite player.

 

Crowell on the other hand would also not be mistaken for an elite player as a pro (what I mean by that is someone who merits a Pro Bowl berth or at least a top 5 player in his conference.

 

However, Crowell has generate stats in the real world of NFL play that has always boasted some INTs (including one pivotal to us registering a win against the Fins last year), some sacks (a sign of aggressiveness which Bills LBs have lacked according to Marv), and also despite a season which truncated by injury he still finished 4th on the team in tackles to his credit.

 

Crowell will have to step up his game a notch or two in order to be the MLB we want, and it would be very nice if Willis were able to start and be the MLB we want, but I have few doubts that Crowell will be more of an impact player in 07 than Willis would be even despite Crowell's limitations.

 

If Willis were to start for us at MLB there are two other big limitation he/we will have to confront even if he gets the nod at MLB over Crowell.

 

1. Crowell almost certainly will do the playcalling and the audible adjustments for the Bills even if Willis is MLB.

 

Sure collegians today come to the NFL having received top level coaching with an eye toward preparing the best players for the NFL. However, F-B was our signal caller in part because had a ton of NFL play experience and the film study that he and even rookie like Willis would do was a supplement to his having seen hundreds and even thousands of NFL plays develop and be run. It would simply be a sharp step back if we were to turn the reigns of adjusting to the set the other team adopts and then adjust to the audibles to a player who has little and initially no experience seeing NFL plays develop except on TV.

 

Crowell can do play calls from his wing position if necessary (he has done that before) but the disadvantage that comes with this is that he does not have the best view of the entire field and even more difficult in some rowdy stadiums it is difficult for his changes to be heard on the far side of the field when he makes the call. As both Simpson and Whitner are second year players, the likely fall back if Willis is occupying the middle will be the suboptimal but doable practice of having Crowell do the playcalling and adjustments from his wing position.

 

2. Like it or not, the conventional wisdom that first round draftees should start is just wrong.

 

A review I did a couple of weeks ago revealed that of the 32 1st round picks from last year's draft (generally thought by most to be a very strong class) while 18 were first at their positions on their team's depth charts, 14 were not.

 

There is a strong bias to the top 10 picks actually being starters (8 or 9 of the 10 if memory works) but since we are #12 and some analysts have Willis going much later there is simply a valid statistical question of whether he will be adequate enough to start.

 

Those who have seen him play and the Butkus voters feel strongly he will be one of the ones who does start, but reality simply says that one can be hopeful and positive about this but pretty far from certain this will be the case.

 

These two issues kick in for me only after I definitely see Crowell as a more likely option to more productive initially than Willis.

 

I understand Willis also has shown the ability to play SLB as well. Given that I think this LB class is fairly weak with no definite top 10 pick, I would be happy to see us take the Butkus winner but start him at SLB where this rookie can play a position that emphasizes his tackling ability while he sees plays, learns the signal calling and adjustment game in practice and becomes our MLB for awhile in a year or two.

[Tipster19]

I would think if you were interested in impact you would have looked hard at FA for an MLB or would be more interested in Crowell than Willis. Willis is a very good prospect and easily the best of this LB crew.

 

However, I would think even a big Willis backer would have to acknowledge that his ability to have a big impact as a rookie is going to be very difficult to pull off as the MLB in the Hybrid Cover 2 we run.

 

Our D which is much like the Tampa 2 in that the MLB has deep coverage responsibility dividing the field into thirds with the safeties puts a large premium on the MLB making vet level reads on plays as he must cover like a safety on passes but fill the gap at the LOS like a DT on run plays.

 

I do not think anyone doubts that Willis is a bright high character guy, that as the Butkus award winner he is the best of this LB crew, or that based on his Combine showings he has the speed to do the deep cover.

 

However, in the same breath even a half rational person would need to acknowledge that a rookie is not gonna be able to make vet reads.

 

If we pick Willis and he starts, certainly I and all Bill fans will hope for the best, but opposing OCs will be licking their chops to face a rookie who is MLB in the Cover 2. I see no objective evidence that says otherwise.

 

If anything, the evidence out there is that folks were rightly impressed with the closing speed Willis showed in the Senior Bowl, but this often came after he struggled in pass coverage and would not give up as he chased down a man who had torched him.

 

Few folks if any objective analysts have Willis as meriting a top 10 pick which is what I mean when I refer to a collegian as an elite player.

 

Crowell on the other hand would also not be mistaken for an elite player as a pro (what I mean by that is someone who merits a Pro Bowl berth or at least a top 5 player in his conference.

 

However, Crowell has generate stats in the real world of NFL play that has always boasted some INTs (including one pivotal to us registering a win against the Fins last year), some sacks (a sign of aggressiveness which Bills LBs have lacked according to Marv), and also despite a season which truncated by injury he still finished 4th on the team in tackles to his credit.

 

Crowell will have to step up his game a notch or two in order to be the MLB we want, and it would be very nice if Willis were able to start and be the MLB we want, but I have few doubts that Crowell will be more of an impact player in 07 than Willis would be even despite Crowell's limitations.

 

If Willis were to start for us at MLB there are two other big limitation he/we will have to confront even if he gets the nod at MLB over Crowell.

 

1. Crowell almost certainly will do the playcalling and the audible adjustments for the Bills even if Willis is MLB.

 

Sure collegians today come to the NFL having received top level coaching with an eye toward preparing the best players for the NFL. However, F-B was our signal caller in part because had a ton of NFL play experience and the film study that he and even rookie like Willis would do was a supplement to his having seen hundreds and even thousands of NFL plays develop and be run. It would simply be a sharp step back if we were to turn the reigns of adjusting to the set the other team adopts and then adjust to the audibles to a player who has little and initially no experience seeing NFL plays develop except on TV.

 

Crowell can do play calls from his wing position if necessary (he has done that before) but the disadvantage that comes with this is that he does not have the best view of the entire field and even more difficult in some rowdy stadiums it is difficult for his changes to be heard on the far side of the field when he makes the call. As both Simpson and Whitner are second year players, the likely fall back if Willis is occupying the middle will be the suboptimal but doable practice of having Crowell do the playcalling and adjustments from his wing position.

 

2. Like it or not, the conventional wisdom that first round draftees should start is just wrong.

 

A review I did a couple of weeks ago revealed that of the 32 1st round picks from last year's draft (generally thought by most to be a very strong class) while 18 were first at their positions on their team's depth charts, 14 were not.

 

There is a strong bias to the top 10 picks actually being starters (8 or 9 of the 10 if memory works) but since we are #12 and some analysts have Willis going much later there is simply a valid statistical question of whether he will be adequate enough to start.

 

Those who have seen him play and the Butkus voters feel strongly he will be one of the ones who does start, but reality simply says that one can be hopeful and positive about this but pretty far from certain this will be the case.

 

These two issues kick in for me only after I definitely see Crowell as a more likely option to more productive initially than Willis.

 

I understand Willis also has shown the ability to play SLB as well. Given that I think this LB class is fairly weak with no definite top 10 pick, I would be happy to see us take the Butkus winner but start him at SLB where this rookie can play a position that emphasizes his tackling ability while he sees plays, learns the signal calling and adjustment game in practice and becomes our MLB for awhile in a year or two.

 

Wow Pyrite Gal, that was really a great insight. Although I agree that we can't expect nor should we rely on Willis to be the integral part of our defense. If he is still available when we draft, I do believe that we should and will draft him.

 

Some of the players, I forget which, stated that it takes two years to really grasp our defense and three to really devour it. Having someone with Willis' speed and ability will be a huge dividend come next year.

[Pyrite Gal]

Wow Pyrite Gal, that was really a great insight. Although I agree that we can't expect nor should we rely on Willis to be the integral part of our defense. If he is still available when we draft, I do believe that we should and will draft him.

 

Some of the players, I forget which, stated that it takes two years to really grasp our defense and three to really devour it. Having someone with Willis' speed and ability will be a huge dividend come next year.

 

Fine with me if we draft him as long the coaches feel he can play SLB, and then let him spend his 2-3 years learning the D there.

 

However, if there is any doubt about that or someone offers us a trade down that gives us a fair shot at either having several RB candidates who can take the starter job, or give us multiple RBs to join A-Train in a RBBC then pull the trigger on that deal.

[justnzane]

Are you referring to Erik Flowers or Mike Williams as the ONE bad pick ?? Or the lesser ones... Willis McGahee and John McCargo (still an incomplete)??

I'd even lump what we gave up for Johnson and Bledsoe and busted 1st rounders too. even more so than Willis.

[Flbillsfan#1]

Wow Pyrite Gal, that was really a great insight. Although I agree that we can't expect nor should we rely on Willis to be the integral part of our defense. If he is still available when we draft, I do believe that we should and will draft him.

 

Some of the players, I forget which, stated that it takes two years to really grasp our defense and three to really devour it. Having someone with Willis' speed and ability will be a huge dividend come next year.

I believe it was Brian Urlacher of Chicago who made that statement about the Tampa 2 defense. Whoever plays MLB for the Bills next year it will be an upgrade from Fletcher last year despite his stats.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

Anything is possible, but I don't believe the Lions would select Patrick Willis. They already drafted Ernie Sims to play that position last year.

 

They may trade down and still get a QB or a RB. That's what they really need.