Looking at the 2007 Draft

[WVUFootball29]

I've been taking sometime and looking at the prospects and team needs of this year's draft and I have got to say, I am just not that excited about this draft. Outside of Calvin Johnson and a few other players I don’t see a lot of prospects who are going to make an impact on the league this year, which should drive the price of day 1 picks up considerably. That is one reason I cannot see San Diego actually receiving a 1st round pick for Michael Turner. More than likely it is going to be a 2nd round pick straight up, or a 3rd rounder with 2008 compensation as well. The longer teams hold out, the more his price will drop. With 3 weeks until the draft I think teams are going to play poker with AJ Smith and get him to fold on the river.

 

Taking a look at the Bills needs this offseason here is a list of the positions I feel the Bills need to address with the highest priority listed first and so on. LB, RB, TE, WR, DL, S, QB. I know plenty of you who are going to argue that DT/DL is a much more needed position, but we’ll address that in a minute. We have a lot of options available to us at 12, but the bad news is even at 12 we are only on the cusp of the elite players for 2007 and will need someone to fall to us.

 

With Fletcher and Spikes no longer with us, that leaves 2 gaping holes in our already weak defense that need to be addressed. Crowell and Ellison are capable starters on the outside, but we are lacking depth and playmaking ability and that has to be addressed. While I hate to agree with LSI Cadets, I do think that if Willis is there at 12 we need to take him. If his combine numbers and college transfer over to the NFL we will definitely have a solid Cover 2 ‘Mike’ LB for the next few years. Even with Willis, I still feel we need to grab another Day 1 LB. This will more than likely be addressed with one of our 3rd round selections, unless a 1st round prospect falls to us in the 2nd.

 

I’m hoping we can address the RB issue by picking up Turner at a reasonable price. However, if a deal cannot be worked out using our 2nd pick on a RB is our best bet. While I would love to get Adrian Peterson, I just don’t see him dropping all the way to 12 and with our other concerns that need to be addressed in this draft, trading up is not a good idea. Lynch will probably be there at 12, but I don’t think he is worthy of that high a selection, especially if the Bills can get Willis. With Coach Jauron already stating that the Bills will be using a RB by committee approach this season, we can wait and pick up a 2nd round RB. Personally, I like Brandon Jackson in the 2nd and I believe he will be available to us with that pick. However, if Leonard is there I believe he will be a much better choice. The kid can play, while he might not be outstanding as a runner, receiver, or blocker, he is above-average in all those categories and would be a great utility back. I just don’t see him being there in the 2nd. Good runner with solid receiving skills as well, sounds like he would fit right in with our offensive scheme. Once we get into the 3rd round, there won’t be many backs to look at. Hunt will be there, but his combine and pro day numbers were atrocious. Booker may be there, along with Darius Walker and perhaps Kenny Irons, but I’m not really sold on any of them.

 

Tight End is a position that needs to be addressed…again. So far, none of TD’s TE acquisitions have panned out; Euhus was constantly hurt, same with Everett (who wasn’t even a starter at Miami), Neufeld and Cieslak are serviceable, but not much of a threat. While Robert Royal was solid the second half of last season, we need someone else at the position that can catch and make plays. I really like Matt Spaeth of Minnesota in the 3rd round. While he might not be the fastest TE, at 6’6” and 258lbs he is a big target with solid receiving skills. Plus from what I have read is a solid team leader and a high character guy.

 

I like our WR corps; they are fast, agile, and reliable. However, we are still lacking a big target downfield and this can be addressed early on day 2. Courtney Taylor might still be on the board at this point and would give us a solid possession WR, although he is lacking a bit in top end speed. A couple others to think about are Syvelle Newton from South Carolina, Dallas Baker from Florida, and David Ball from New Hampshire.

 

Now a lot of you were going to argue that we need to address DL, especially DT on Day 1. Personally, I don’t see the need to. Right now we have 2 solid starting DE’s and 2 capable reserves there. DT we have Triplett, Williams, McCargo, Walker, and Anderson. I do not see any reason to spend a Day 1 pick on the line, unless someone of value falls to us and we have no other choice but to take them (See GB trade scenario). Some players to look at on the line on Day 2 are: Kareem Brown, DT Miami, Brandon Mebane, DT Cal, Baraka Atkins, DE/DT Miami, Chase Pittman, DE LSU.

 

Safety is a concern due to depth, or should I say the lack thereof. Whitner and Simpson played great as rookies and I look forward to seeing play even better in 2007. However, with Bowen released, and Wire looking at playing both S and LB, we really are hurting for depth. Day 2 would be a good time to address this, maybe even last Day 1 if the right prospect fell to us in the 3rd. Sabby Piscitelli from Oregon State looks like an intriguing prospect with his size and speed, along with John Wendling from Montana

 

While I don’t think QB is a major concern for the Bills, I would like to see them bring in a late Day 2 prospect to push Nall in camp and to have around as a developmental project. I like Jeff Rowe from Nevada, along with Jared Zabransky from Boise State, Matt Moore from Oregon State, and Matt Gutierrez from Idaho State (formerly from Michigan)

 

While I’m not too keen on moving around too much in this draft, one move that I see as possible would be Green Bay trading with us at 12 to pick up Lynch, especially if they feel he won’t fall past us. They really need someone in their backfield and would be willing to reach for Lynch if they think he is that guy. If Green Bay is willing to swap 1st and give up their 3rd, 78th overall, AND Willis is off the board, I’d take it and take either Poz or the best player available at a critical need position.

[Booster4324]

While I’m not too keen on moving around too much in this draft, one move that I see as possible would be Green Bay trading with us at 12 to pick up Lynch, especially if they feel he won’t fall past us. They really need someone in their backfield and would be willing to reach for Lynch if they think he is that guy. If Green Bay is willing to swap 1st and give up their 3rd, 78th overall, AND Willis is off the board, I’d take it and take either Poz or the best player available at a critical need position.

 

I agree with that. It's one of the few trade down scenarios I have seen that make sense. With that said I am still hoping for Willis and Turner.

[nichebiche]

that trade makes very little sense. if the Packers believe that the Bills will take Lynch, and that is truly the case, the Bills will not trade places with the team that is going to take the guy they want. if the Bills want Lynch and the Packers do as well, the Pack would have to trade ahead of Buffalo to get him. if Buffalo doesn't want Lynch, then GB can sit at #16 and let him fall to them since no other team ahead of them has their eye on Lynch.

 

this is one trade that does not add up.

[DrDawkinstein]

the way we trade with GB is simple. if at the #12 pick, Willis, Puz and Lynch are still on the board we call up GB and say "we're going to grab Lynch if we have to stay here. do you want to trade spots for a 2nd rounder and get him yourselves?"

 

if they say yes, we then wait to see if Willis still falls to us, if he doesnt we grab Puz.

 

if they call our bluff, then its really up to Marv and Co. they can grab Lynch and maybe try to trade him away to GB once we have our hands on him. or we can just grab Willis or whoever at #12. or we can draft him and keep him. whatever.

 

its a win-win situation

[nichebiche]

the way we trade with GB is simple. if at the #12 pick, Willis, Puz and Lynch are still on the board we call up GB and say "we're going to grab Lynch if we have to stay here. do you want to trade spots for a 2nd rounder and get him yourselves?"

 

if they say yes, we then wait to see if Willis still falls to us, if he doesnt we grab Puz.

 

if they call our bluff, then its really up to Marv and Co. they can grab Lynch and maybe try to trade him away to GB once we have our hands on him. or we can just grab Willis or whoever at #12. or we can draft him and keep him. whatever.

 

its a win-win situation

 

 

if i was the GM of the Packers and i received that call from Marv, i'd say "i'll believe you'll be choosing Lynch when i hear the Commish announce it. otherwise, why would you be calling me attempting to give up the guy you want? thanks for the call, but i'm not buying it."

 

if the Bills are making that call, it's because they don't want Lynch or don't care if they get him. if they wanted Lynch, they would take him and not make the call. if the Bills don't want Lynch, the Packers can sit tight and take him without having to give up anything to get him.

 

if the Packers really believe that the Bills will take Lynch, they will call Houston at #10 or the Niners at #11 and attempt to trade with them to position themselves for Lynch.

 

as for the Bills, you could go ahead and take Lynch and then try to trade him. but if the guy you really want is Willis or Poz, and the Packers or another team really don't want to give up what it takes, then the Bills are stuck.

 

bottom line -- a trade with the Packers is very unlikely

[Booster4324]

Yes because we all know that no one has ever drafted and then traded a player in the history of the NFL.

[mattypro89]

if i was the GM of the Packers and i received that call from Marv, i'd say "i'll believe you'll be choosing Lynch when i hear the Commish announce it. otherwise, why would you be calling me attempting to give up the guy you want? thanks for the call, but i'm not buying it."

 

if the Bills are making that call, it's because they don't want Lynch or don't care if they get him. if they wanted Lynch, they would take him and not make the call. if the Bills don't want Lynch, the Packers can sit tight and take him without having to give up anything to get him.

 

if the Packers really believe that the Bills will take Lynch, they will call Houston at #10 or the Niners at #11 and attempt to trade with them to position themselves for Lynch.

 

as for the Bills, you could go ahead and take Lynch and then try to trade him. but if the guy you really want is Willis or Poz, and the Packers or another team really don't want to give up what it takes, then the Bills are stuck.

 

bottom line -- a trade with the Packers is very unlikely

i hope they call the Niners at #11 and trade up above us. one, it will save us from picking Lynch, and two, it will almost garuntee we can get Willis. I see San Fran as the only real threat of picking him before he gets to us, though that may be in doubt now.

[nichebiche]

Yes because we all know that no one has ever drafted and then traded a player in the history of the NFL.

 

yes, but that happens for a different reason. that happens when a guy in high demand is available and a team wants to move up to get him. they make an agreement with another team to choose him so that other teams cannot take him.

 

in this instance, if the Bills don't take Lynch, no one else will until it's the Packers turn to pick. he is not in high demand. the Packers are not worried about the Rams, Panthers or Steelers taking him, or someone else trading up to get him. if the Bills took Lynch, hoping to make a trade, they would have to be prepared to keep him in case they cannot work something out.

 

it could happen, but if the Packers really thought Buffalo wanted Lynch, they would move ahead of the Bills, not trade with them.

[WVUFootball29]

The whole point of the trade is not that Buffalo was going to take Lynch. I pretty much said that I'm looking at Buffalo getting Turner or waiting til round 2 to pick up a RB. Green Bay knowing that Buffalo might...MIGHT... take Lynch at 12 might want to work out a deal where Buffalo can still pick up a need at 16 in a LB or DL. this way GB can be assured they get their guy. They could try to trade ahead...but the only ones I see in a position to trade down is the Texans at 10. However, Lynch at 12 is already a reach so 10 makes even less sense. This trade is a simple case of you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours.

 

I don't think the Bills need Lynch if they are going to do RB by committee. Lynch does not strike me as a franchise back like AP does therefore I don't see a need to waste the pick that early in the round on him. Thats my view and I'm sticking to it

[Pyrite Gal]

Many thanks for your thoughtful work and perspectives. My comments on your comments are:

 

I don't think many people are arguing we will go DT or DE in the first anymore with any credibility. The four DTs and likely the 4 DEs on this team are set.

 

Safety: this is a big concern as right now Leonhard is on the depth chart backing up both positions behind two rookies. If we like a safety even onthe 1st day we may take one.

 

 

QB: We obviously draft a disaster QB and who will be we will see.

 

Thanks for your work.

[Pyrite Gal]

Many thanks for your thoughtful work and perspectives. My comments on your comments are:

 

I don't think many people are arguing we will go DT or DE in the first anymore with any credibility. The four DTs and likely the 4 DEs on this team are set.

 

Safety: this is a big concern as right now Leonhard is on the depth chart backing up both positions behind two rookies. If we like a safety even onthe 1st day we may take one.

QB: We obviously draft a disaster QB and who will be we will see.

 

Thanks for your work.

Oops must have wiped out the comments from LB through DL. Sorry about that an no time to replace them as we are out the door.

 

Cya as Simon says

[Colsrob]

I've been taking sometime and looking at the prospects and team needs of this year's draft and I have got to say, I am just not that excited about this draft. Outside of Calvin Johnson and a few other players I don’t see a lot of prospects who are going to make an impact on the league this year, which should drive the price of day 1 picks up considerably. That is one reason I cannot see San Diego actually receiving a 1st round pick for Michael Turner. More than likely it is going to be a 2nd round pick straight up, or a 3rd rounder with 2008 compensation as well. The longer teams hold out, the more his price will drop. With 3 weeks until the draft I think teams are going to play poker with AJ Smith and get him to fold on the river.

 

I will state up front that I am a Charger fan.

 

Now, on to the reply. The above quote says the same thing that I have seen many fans from other teams, state about a possible Turner trade. Mainly that he isnt worth a 1st rd pick. Yet, in your post(and others), you go on to say that the draft appears weak to you in prospects that can help out immediately. Further along in your original post, you made reference about getting Lynch, or possibly using him as bait to get a trade fron GB. How is it that you feel Lynch is worthy of a 1st rd pick, yet Turner doesnt have enough value?

 

Without waiting for your reply, I will make this comment: Reguardless of what other teams feel is a worthy offer, its AJ who has to feel the value is enough. I can guarantee that he will not accept a single 2nd rd, or the 3rd rd with "possible" '08 compensation(your idea). There is no way that Turner gets to leave for that low of compensation. SD will be happy to keep him another year and everyone can watch and see the kind of value he would have had for them. Turner is easily better valued than any rb in the draft this year. If we have to keep him, you wont see much disapointment in the fans.

 

After all is said and done, if no team makes a decent enough offer, they can get in line to fight for his rights next year. Then see how much he will cost. Its possible to get him cheap(contract wise)(and pick wise actually) right now, at seasons end, his price will go up considerably. I think the FO people for each team is fully aware of this, but I dont think all the fans are quite up to par.

[jri111]

I will state up front that I am a Charger fan.

 

Now, on to the reply. The above quote says the same thing that I have seen many fans from other teams, state about a possible Turner trade. Mainly that he isnt worth a 1st rd pick. Yet, in your post(and others), you go on to say that the draft appears weak to you in prospects that can help out immediately. Further along in your original post, you made reference about getting Lynch, or possibly using him as bait to get a trade fron GB. How is it that you feel Lynch is worthy of a 1st rd pick, yet Turner doesnt have enough value?

 

Without waiting for your reply, I will make this comment: Reguardless of what other teams feel is a worthy offer, its AJ who has to feel the value is enough. I can guarantee that he will not accept a single 2nd rd, or the 3rd rd with "possible" '08 compensation(your idea). There is no way that Turner gets to leave for that low of compensation. SD will be happy to keep him another year and everyone can watch and see the kind of value he would have had for them. Turner is easily better valued than any rb in the draft this year. If we have to keep him, you wont see much disapointment in the fans.

 

After all is said and done, if no team makes a decent enough offer, they can get in line to fight for his rights next year. Then see how much he will cost. Its possible to get him cheap(contract wise)(and pick wise actually) right now, at seasons end, his price will go up considerably. I think the FO people for each team is fully aware of this, but I dont think all the fans are quite up to par.

 

 

First I'd like to say that you seem smart and educated and your thoughts seem well thought out. That said, I just DO NOT see how AJ expects to get a first rounder for Turner. It's like milking a cat, it's just not going to happen. The market is just not there. Now I respect what Smith is trying to do and I understand it (he's playing harball) but in the end, a first round pick is just a pipe dream. Here's a list of reasons why when the dust settles Turner will be dealt, if he's dealt at all as you correctly pointed out, for less then a first rounder (in order of significance):

 

1. No market. Right now it's been reported that Buffalo, Tennessee, the Cowboys and the Jets are interested in Turner. That said, taking a larger look at the NFL as a whole and you'll see that there are only three-four teams that still need a starting runningback (Buffalo and Greenbay for sure and Cleveland and Tennessee to a lesser extent). First, lets just eliminate the cowboys and jets from the discussion right away. They may be interested in Turner, but they're not going to be willing to give up what it takes to get him (and that's in my mind, which is a lot less then the first rounder in your mind). So there are four teams that need a starting running back and two blue chip runningbacks in the draft (we could argue about lynch, i don't think he is, but some team is going to take him in round 1, so the point is moot for this discussion). That leaves two teams and Turner and a number of second-tier backs. Green bay doesn't appear to be interested in Turner at all and all signs point to them taking lynch. Cleveland will most likely take Peterson or a 2nd/3rd round running back to go with Lewis if they pass on Peterson. So you have the Bills and the Titans again. The Titans just gave up a 2nd round pick last year for White, do you really think they'll give up a first rounder this year for a 25 year old running back who has never started in the NFL? Not to mention it's already coming out of Tennessee that they're not willing to give up their first rounder for Turner. Therefore, with the Titan not willing to give up a number 1 and the Bills having a higher draft position then Tennessee, then how do we locially get from bufflo offering the 43rd pick in the draft to the 12th? the answer? you don't. First and foremost Turner won't be dealt for a first rounder because the market of teams intersted and willing to give up picks for him just isn't there. Buffalo might like Turner. Buffalo might LOVE turner. But why give up more then you have to? It would be like bidding agaisnt oneself. Like you said, A.J. holds the gun. He can pull the trigger if he wants, and if he's holding out for a first then you can expect Turner to remain a Charger. But, I don't think under any circumstance will you see the Bills surrender their first rounder...

 

2. past RB market. for the sake of length i wont go into detail but if mcgahee a proven started in this league could only muster two thrids and seventh, how is a back of the same age who has never started going to demand a first? Other examples: Thomas Jones, Shaun Alexander (not being traded), Edgrin James. etc...

 

3. unproven. you say that you think Turner has more talent then any back in this years draft. That's your opinion and i respect that. But the fact is he's just about as unproven as any draft prospect. Yes, he has shown that he could run in the NFL, but agaisnt what kind of competition? on third down passing situations? in mop-up duty at the end of the game? After LT has worn down the defenses? Granted I think he has shown enough to warrent the attention that he's getting, but the fact is no one knows whether he's an everydown back in the NFL. He's never done it. Same as Peterson, Lynch, Pittman, Irons, Hunt, Jackson, etc... You don't trade a first round pick for a player who hasn't proven he can handle the full load (not at RB at least, only at QB really)

 

4. Age. He's 25. most RB's are 21-22 when they come out of the draft. And although it's true that turner hasn't taken a beating the lasts three years, Runningbacks bodies tned to break down pretty darn early. A few case studies. a. Jamaal Lewis - former 2000 yard rusher. many now consider him washed up and the best he could get was a 1 year deal with a team likely to draft a blue chilp running back. oh and by the way, he's only 27 years old. b. James - Arizona is ONE year removed from getting James from Indy and they spend BIG money to do so. Now all of a sudden people in Arizon are talking about taking Peterson at the fifth pick if he's still there. James is only 28 years old.

 

 

overall I admire your spirit and your throughness, but I think SD fans have blinders on. A few days ago I went on a SD message board to see what Bolts fans were saying about a potential Turner trade and what I discovered was frieghtening. Alomst EVERYONE was talking getting a first for Turner (and in some cases more!) and what they wanted to do with it. It's blind faith without much thinking. Most likely if the Bills give up picks for Turner it will be along the lines if a second this year and another pick (either this year or next year), and frankly if I were a bolts fan I'd be pretty happy about that. That defies the market and you're getting excellent value for a back who's going to be gone next year anyways.

 

 

In the end I think the immediate winner of the trade will be deterimined by the second of the potential picks given up. I think Bolts fans will feel like they get the better end of the deal if they get a 2nd and a thrid this year, while bills fans will be more happy if its a second this year and a third next year. It's going to be something along those lines IF a deal happens, and if it does both sides will be better for it. But PLEASE understand, there is NO Way the Bills give up the first pick, either straight up or via swap, its just not going to happen for all of the above reasons.

[WVUFootball29]

I will state up front that I am a Charger fan.

 

Now, on to the reply. The above quote says the same thing that I have seen many fans from other teams, state about a possible Turner trade. Mainly that he isnt worth a 1st rd pick. Yet, in your post(and others), you go on to say that the draft appears weak to you in prospects that can help out immediately. Further along in your original post, you made reference about getting Lynch, or possibly using him as bait to get a trade fron GB. How is it that you feel Lynch is worthy of a 1st rd pick, yet Turner doesnt have enough value?

 

Without waiting for your reply, I will make this comment: Reguardless of what other teams feel is a worthy offer, its AJ who has to feel the value is enough. I can guarantee that he will not accept a single 2nd rd, or the 3rd rd with "possible" '08 compensation(your idea). There is no way that Turner gets to leave for that low of compensation. SD will be happy to keep him another year and everyone can watch and see the kind of value he would have had for them. Turner is easily better valued than any rb in the draft this year. If we have to keep him, you wont see much disapointment in the fans.

 

After all is said and done, if no team makes a decent enough offer, they can get in line to fight for his rights next year. Then see how much he will cost. Its possible to get him cheap(contract wise)(and pick wise actually) right now, at seasons end, his price will go up considerably. I think the FO people for each team is fully aware of this, but I dont think all the fans are quite up to par.

 

Well I appreciate your response, but I think you guys out there in San Diego are looking at this through a rose colored glass. Turner was a 5th round pick and has yet to prove he can be a starter. I won't deny that he is a solid runner, but he's not had to shoulder the load yet. So far from what I've seen, he doesnt warrant the number 12 pick...although he is my favorite RB available now in or out of the draft.

 

I do not think Lynch is worth the 12th pick in the draft. I'm not overly impressed with him. However, I did say that Green Bay might want him more than we do and would be willing to trade up to secure him. GB is hurting more for a RB than Buffalo right now. We have 3 on the roster right now and have the luxury of waiting for the right guy for our system.

 

Back to the trade for Turner. If Turner was worth the price of compensation, he would have already been signed by another team that would be happy to sign him. So far, none have even issued a tender sheet. Why? Simple, he's not worth that much. AJ Smith can hold on to Turner all he wants, but as draft day approaches, Turners value will continue to drop.

 

Further proof that Turner will not fetch a first round pick. Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets for a 2nd round pick swap. Willis McGahee was traded to Baltimore for a 3rd, a 7th, and a 3rd next year. Both backs are young and proven to be able to handle a starting position in the NFL. Turner has yet to do so, so tell me where the logic in trading a 1st round pick for that is? At the end of the day, if/when Turner is unloaded, San Diego will end up with a mid to late 1st day selection and maybe possibly a 1st rounder in 2008 and the team that gets him will get a motivated RB who wants to prove he belongs in this league.

[Pyrite Gal]

One question I would have about the logic that Smith needs to make a move before the market gets worse is that I think it is legitimate to view it the other way around.

 

If one agrees with the premise laid out in the original post that this draft is fairly weak. it would seem as the draft draws closer teams like the Bills who need a starting RB should be getting even more desperate,

 

Basically is one waits until the draft and you are #12 and you want a player with reasonable potential to start, their seems to be pretty widespread agreement that there are only two RBs even worth a 1st round choice, AP and Lynch.

 

The Bills may hope AP drops to them but one would be foolish to make this assumption.

 

The left with Lynch as your only choice for a player likely enough to start he merits a 1st, but as Marv well knows a team can make a pick in the top 10 (hypothetically let's call this player...say.. huh Whitner how bout that for a made up name),

 

If Marv wants a starting RB that badly then in the end, if what this costs is a 1st then probably so be it.

 

As it turns out I do not think the Bills are so all fired committed to getting a definite starter as I think the Bills may really be ready to go with the RBBC approach. I think overall Ralph likely feels pretty burned by the Willis M. experience. He is just coming off being burned by choosing a prima donna RB and even worse having to rely on him as the definite go-to guy at starting RB.

 

Even though the past acts of one individual do not determine at all the acts of a future player, it would not surprise me if the Bills pretty much react this year regarding RB as fool me once shame on McGahee, but if we put ourselves in the position of being dependent upon 1 RB again then shame on me.

 

I think the braintrust also realizes that the draft is in essence a crapshoot. Lynch looks good but so did Ryan Leaf, Mike Williams and Harrington. Even worse, Lynch could end up being as great a pick as a player like Larry Johnson, but if so this path is one of a consensus Pro Bowler whose first two years simply sucked in terms of production.

 

People must be making a judgment that AJ Smith is a weenie who will blink big time because I think as the draft approaches the market dynamics are such that it should drive up Turner's trade value.

 

Besides all of that as the Bills loss two starters at LB who were a Pro Bowler and near Pro Bowler, I think the 1st choice is likely an LB and this also heightens the desire for the Bills to do what is necessary to get Turner.

[Bob in STL]

the way we trade with GB is simple. if at the #12 pick, Willis, Puz and Lynch are still on the board we call up GB and say "we're going to grab Lynch if we have to stay here. do you want to trade spots for a 2nd rounder and get him yourselves?"

 

if they say yes, we then wait to see if Willis still falls to us, if he doesnt we grab Puz.

 

if they call our bluff, then its really up to Marv and Co. they can grab Lynch and maybe try to trade him away to GB once we have our hands on him. or we can just grab Willis or whoever at #12. or we can draft him and keep him. whatever.

 

its a win-win situation

 

I think your logic is a bit flawed. Your first scenario said Willis is off the board. Now you say he is on? In Willis is there we take him, case closed. Let Lynch fall to GB or whereever. When we get to round 2 we talk to AJ Smith about Turner. If Turner is already a Titan, so be it. We can draft a RB with one of our 3 remaining day 1 picks.

 

If Willis is gone we take Lynch at 12 unless we have a deal brewing for Turner in rounds 2 or 3.

 

If Willis is gone and we have a deal for Turner in the works that does not involve our number #1, then I could see trading down and still having a shot at Hall, Revis, Poz, Meachem, etc.

[Bob in STL]

Well I appreciate your response, but I think you guys out there in San Diego are looking at this through a rose colored glass. Turner was a 5th round pick and has yet to prove he can be a starter. I won't deny that he is a solid runner, but he's not had to shoulder the load yet. So far from what I've seen, he doesnt warrant the number 12 pick...although he is my favorite RB available now in or out of the draft.

 

I do not think Lynch is worth the 12th pick in the draft. I'm not overly impressed with him. However, I did say that Green Bay might want him more than we do and would be willing to trade up to secure him. GB is hurting more for a RB than Buffalo right now. We have 3 on the roster right now and have the luxury of waiting for the right guy for our system.

 

Back to the trade for Turner. If Turner was worth the price of compensation, he would have already been signed by another team that would be happy to sign him. So far, none have even issued a tender sheet. Why? Simple, he's not worth that much. AJ Smith can hold on to Turner all he wants, but as draft day approaches, Turners value will continue to drop.

 

Further proof that Turner will not fetch a first round pick. Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets for a 2nd round pick swap. Willis McGahee was traded to Baltimore for a 3rd, a 7th, and a 3rd next year. Both backs are young and proven to be able to handle a starting position in the NFL. Turner has yet to do so, so tell me where the logic in trading a 1st round pick for that is? At the end of the day, if/when Turner is unloaded, San Diego will end up with a mid to late 1st day selection and maybe possibly a 1st rounder in 2008 and the team that gets him will get a motivated RB who wants to prove he belongs in this league.

 

Agree that the SD new article is wrong. Turner's value will go down with each round of the draft.

 

I will be upset to see us make a deal for Turner that involves a first rounder, even a swap of first rounders.

 

Based on the moves made so far this off season I think that Turner is worth the 3rd and 7th that we got for Willis, and that would be my going in offer. No way should Turner pull in a better deal than we got for McGahee.

 

Thats said, I would love to have Turner and I think he will be a more productive and better Buffalo Bill than McGahee.

[WVUFootball29]

Agree that the SD new article is wrong. Turner's value will go down with each round of the draft.

 

I will be upset to see us make a deal for Turner that involves a first rounder, even a swap of first rounders.

 

Based on the moves made so far this off season I think that Turner is worth the 3rd and 7th that we got for Willis, and that would be my going in offer. No way should Turner pull in a better deal than we got for McGahee.

 

Thats said, I would love to have Turner and I think he will be a more productive and better Buffalo Bill than McGahee.

 

Agreed.

[Kelly the Dog]

Agreed.

What would be wrong with a swap of firsts and a draft of Michael Turner, Simmons or Beason at LB, TE Zach Miller, plus a top CB and WR or (even LB Tim Shaw/Durant) in the 3rd round.

[Bob in STL]

What would be wrong with a swap of firsts and a draft of Michael Turner, Simmons or Beason at LB, TE Zach Miller, plus a top CB and WR or (even LB Tim Shaw/Durant) in the 3rd round.

 

Not sure anything is wrong with your scenario. I just think that Willis is the best LB in the draft and we should use that pick on him if he is there at 12.