Who will get AP, Turner, Lynch?????

[Simon]

OK, since you keep posting this, I must ask, "were any of these guys (bolded) even DISCUSSED as being possible mid-1st round draft picks?" Not to my recollection. and there's a reason, IMO. Lynch is WAY WAY better than that bunch. I think he won't be joining their company in the NFL.

 

I also must ask, "Why are you bringing Tossy McSalad into this?"

Since Yooooo is on Marshawn post #1,687 in the past 2 months, I just figured I'd play along a little. And I'm also sort of curious if the guy is capable of posting anything else or elaborating on his theme.

 

I don't remember where any of those guys were projected to go, I just know that they were all guys who played in Tedford's system in his years at Fresno, Oregon and Cal. They put up huge numbers, broke school records and were considered great players but none of them has had any impact in the NFL. I just think that when theres that many guys on a list in such a relatively short time that its worth noting and considering whether it may be a trend that's going to continue.

If Lynch breaks that cycle he'll be the aberration and I don't think I'm comfortable spending a pick as valuable as #12 overall on a guy I hope is going to be different than so many before him.

[Simon]

So Peterson definitely won't be like.......

Your words not mine........

And of those 14 guys you listed I think Peterson is more gifted and talented than any one of them (with KJ Carter being the only possible exception).

 

and Lynch definitely wont be like........

Yet again, your words not mine.........

And again of those 10 guys you listed I think Lynch is less gifted and talented than any of them(with LJohnson being a possible exception).

 

ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs are found after the #12 pick every year

Yes they are; and I hope the Bills draft one instead of the pedestrian Lynch.

 

I'm not saying the Bills must (or even should) trade up to draft Peterson. Even though he's the best college back I've seen in years, I'm leery about giving away valuable assetts/picks to move up take a guy who seems to get nicked every year he plays ball.

But I can think of at least a dozen things I'd rather see the Bills do than to stand pat and draft Marshawn with that #12.

Cya

[Dibs]

Your words not mine........

And of those 14 guys you listed I think Peterson is more gifted and talented than any one of them (with KJ Carter being the only possible exception).

Yet again, your words not mine.........

And again of those 10 guys you listed I think Lynch is less gifted and talented than any of them.

Yes they are; and I hope the Bills draft one instead of the pedestrian Lynch.

 

I'm not saying the Bills must (or even should) trade up to draft Peterson. Even though he's the best college back I've seen in years, I'm leery about giving away valuable assetts/picks to move up take a guy who seems to get nicked every year he plays ball.

But I can think of at least a dozen things I'd rather see the Bills do than to stand pat and draft Marshawn with that #12.

Cya

I'm not commenting on what the Bills should/shouldn't do. I was commenting on your statement of......

Lynch will be a nice addition to somebody's team and and able versatile player if utilized properly, but I want a ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip stud with that pick and Peterson is the only back I've seen in this draft that fits that description.

....so yes, I put the quote above into my words......but it was still your meaning. Lynch won't be a ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip stud......& Peterson is the only guy you see that can be a ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip stud.

 

Those 14 guys I listed were all drafted in the top 12......therefore were certainly considered potential ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs at the time of drafting. None of them lived up to their pre-draft billing.

 

Those other 10 guys I listed were all drafted after the top 12(into the 2nd, 4th, 5th rounds)......therefore were certainly not considered potential ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs at the time of drafting. All these guys became the ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs that you are after. How can you possibly say that Lynch can't become one of those STAR type players.

[Simon]

Those 14 guys I listed were all drafted in the top 12......therefore were certainly considered potential ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs at the time of drafting.

They may have been considered that by those who drafted them, but I am not those who drafted them. I'm only stating my own opinion with no regard to the thoughts of how others have viewed players in the past. And of that list, Warrick Dunn doesn't belong on it and the only guy I thought was going to be a blue chipper out of those was KiJana Carter.

 

Those other 10 guys I listed were all drafted after the top 12(into the 2nd, 4th, 5th rounds)......therefore were certainly not considered potential ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip studs at the time of drafting.

Again, I could care less about conventional wisdom or what those guys were considered to be by others. I'm only speaking from my own perspective and what I've seen on the field.

Besides most of those guys you listed were considered blue chip players and were taken in the first round. I'm not really sure what p[oint you're trying to make here. Are you just trying to build straw men by listing a bunch of running backs an implying that all those 1st round picks that had success were some kind of big surprise? That sure is what it seems like.

[Dibs]

They may have been considered that by those who drafted them, but I am not those who drafted them. I'm only stating my own opinion with no regard to the thoughts of how others have viewed players in the past. And of that list, Warrick Dunn doesn't belong on it and the only guy I thought was going to be a blue chipper out of those was KiJana Carter.

Again, I could care less about conventional wisdom or what those guys were considered to be by others. I'm only speaking from my own perspective and what I've seen on the field.

Besides most of those guys you listed were considered blue chip players and were taken in the first round. I'm not really sure what p[oint you're trying to make here. Are you just trying to build straw men by listing a bunch of running backs an implying that all those 1st round picks that had success were some kind of big surprise? That sure is what it seems like.

The second list are RBs that were considered to be outside the elite level.......just as Lynch is.

 

I'm on the same page as you now. Obviously things will happen how you predict because it's you who is doing the predictions. I didn't realize I had entered into an "I'm right/your wrong" discussion.

I guess I'll take your word for it. Lynch can't become a star because he just hasn't got it......and obviously neither will any RB drafted this year apart from AP.

 

How could I possibly have thought to try & point out the futility of having a dogmatic opinion on talent evaluation.

Sorry.

Won't happen again.

[Simon]

The second list are RBs that were considered to be outside the elite level.......just as Lynch is.

I suppose it's semantics but I'd say that RB's taken in the first round should be considered at the elite level, not outside of it. So if the Bills were going to take Lynch at 12 I'd hope they consider him elite, like I imagine most of the teams who drafted the players on your list did.

 

Obviously things will happen how you predict because it's you who is doing the predictions. I didn't realize I had entered into an "I'm right/your wrong" discussion.

I guess I'll take your word for it. Lynch can't become a star because he just hasn't got it......and obviously neither will any RB drafted this year apart from AP.

Wow, you really are a dick aren't you?

I'm just giving my opinion on a message board, like everybody else. I've said I think this and I think that but I guess that's not dynamic enough for you. You're need to build straw men by trying to "quote" me in absolutes is really pretty lame, imo. If you want to put words in my mouth and imply that I hold a bunch of opinions or ahve said a bunch of things that I haven't, then I suppose that's your business. But frankly it really makes you boring to talk to. You kind of sound like one of those mindless ranting sports radio people.........

[Mickey]

While the ability to stop the run was a major major problem, the running game did us no favors either. They are 1 and 1a in our needs list. However, the upgrade of the OLine should be sufficient in and of itself to help our run game.

That was what I was, in my clumsy way, trying to say. We have invested in improving the run game in a big way as it is with the new lineman. Now we need to do the same, or at least start to, with the interior defense. I don't expect them to ignore the need for a back but I don't expect to take precedence over the MLB issue.

 

Now if Okoye, Branch and Willis are gone at 12 but Lynch or Peterson are there, maybe its a different story. That might entail a choice between the CB's still on the board and the RB's. Good chance RB is seen as more critical.

[Mickey]

Everybody has this hard on for Willis, and I agree I think he'd be a great pick for the Bills. That being said I think Poz would be just as good for the Bills. The guy was a hell of a LB, is fast, has good latteral movement, is pretty good in coverage and is a tackling machine. As long as Crowell can successfully make the transition to MLB (or the Bills could take someone like Beason in the 2nd round) I think Poz works just as well for this team and gives them the potential to pick up more picks by moving down in the draft to get him (though I'm not really sure if Marv is that interested in trying to milk the draft for all it's worth in terms of trading down). I really wouldn't mind seeing the Bills draft LBs in the first and second rounds as long as there are players there that fit the bill.

 

As for RBs, there are so few teams that need RBs it's going to push some good RBs down in the draft and enable the Bills to pick one up later on day one. I wouldn't mind the Bills waiting until round 3 to draft a RB (like Pittman).

I have a hard time believing Pittman would drop that far but you never know. As for Poz, I know a lot of people like him but a lot of other see him as being overrated. Its all subjective so I won't argue that with you. I just see Willis as something special on and off the field. Two picks, two LBs? Good point, it could happen.

 

I like our position in the draft and really hope we stand pat until we are on the clock. There isn't much bad that can happen given our needs, where we are picking and the direction the draft may be moving what with all the FA RB signings. The one thing that could screw this up is a bad trade a week before the draft.

[YOOOOOO]

Since Yooooo is on Marshawn post #1,687 in the past 2 months, I just figured I'd play along a little. And I'm also sort of curious if the guy is capable of posting anything else or elaborating on his theme.

 

I don't remember where any of those guys were projected to go, I just know that they were all guys who played in Tedford's system in his years at Fresno, Oregon and Cal. They put up huge numbers, broke school records and were considered great players but none of them has had any impact in the NFL. I just think that when theres that many guys on a list in such a relatively short time that its worth noting and considering whether it may be a trend that's going to continue.

If Lynch breaks that cycle he'll be the aberration and I don't think I'm comfortable spending a pick as valuable as #12 overall on a guy I hope is going to be different than so many before him.

 

 

The guy is a complete back

 

Great size, vision, hands, explosiveness, speed, break tackle and blocking ability....He can run north/south, pound it or he can run east/west, getting around the corner....

 

You can line him up wide and he will be as effective as any of our WR's(not named Lee).....

The dude even has a arm...if you want to get a little creative....

 

 

Add to it that he is a Unselfish leader, who's always deflecting compliments towards his OLine....a WE-type player....

 

 

Those other guys you mention did not possess all the tools, dedication or character Marshawn does...so it pointless to compare....

 

If this dude is there at 12...

 

you draft him....

[Mickey]

Last year, New Orleans had Deuce McAlister and they took a RB #1, which, granted, was Reggie Bush but still.

The Pats had Dillon coming off a big season and took a RB #1.

 

In 2005 The Bears had Thomas Jones and took Benson.

 

In 2004 The Rams had Faulk still going strong and took Steven Jackson

The Bengals had Rudi Johnson in his prime and took Chris Perry.

 

We all know the Bills had Henry and took Willis.

 

You had a good post and good points but there is likely a team very willing to take a RB that already has one that we're not thinking is in the running.

Good point Kelly, the draft is unpredictable. Sometimes the best strategy is to position yourself to be able to take advantage of whatever opportunities fortune sends your way. How many times have you watched the first round and after hearing a pick said to yourself, "what the F#$@$?????" Happens every year.

[jri111]

The guy is a complete back

 

Great size, vision, hands, explosiveness, speed, break tackle and blocking ability....He can run north/south, pound it or he can run east/west, getting around the corner....

 

You can line him up wide and he will be as effective as any of our WR's(not named Lee).....

The dude even has a arm...if you want to get a little creative....

Add to it that he is a Unselfish leader, who's always deflecting compliments towards his OLine....a WE-type player....

Those other guys you mention did not possess all the tools, dedication or character Marshawn does...so it pointless to compare....

 

If this dude is there at 12...

 

you draft him....

 

 

 

How about the fact that he's never had a full load to carry at Cal?

 

Or his injury (back) concerns?

 

Or even his "character" issues (which i agree aren't a big concern, but are still there nonetheless)?

 

 

Lynch is projected as a 1st round RB as opposed to Pittman, Irons, etc.. becuase he's versitle. He doesn't have any glaring weaknesses (i.e. he's not small like Pittman and Irons, and not slow like Hunt). That said, although he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, is he really "exceptional" at anything?

 

I think his draft position is for a product of the RB crop in this year's draft rather than his potential ability. IMO you can't even compare Peterson to Lynch. Peterson is a consenus top 5 player in this draft. He's that good. Lynch is in the first, because he's versitle and because he represents the best "package" then any other back.

 

If both players were in a draft year (like next year?) where runningbacks were a surplus I think you'd still see Peterson still being a top 5 player whereas Lynch would be more of a "second tier" back. My opinion, but i think you're "overplaying" Lynch's potential. He definitily could be good, if not great, but I have too many questions about him to be sure enough to take him with the 12th pick in the draft.

[Dibs]

I suppose it's semantics but I'd say that RB's taken in the first round should be considered at the elite level, not outside of it. So if the Bills were going to take Lynch at 12 I'd hope they consider him elite, like I imagine most of the teams who drafted the players on your list did.

Wow, you really are a dick aren't you?

I'm just giving my opinion on a message board, like everybody else. I've said I think this and I think that but I guess that's not dynamic enough for you. You're need to build straw men by trying to "quote" me in absolutes is really pretty lame, imo. If you want to put words in my mouth and imply that I hold a bunch of opinions or ahve said a bunch of things that I haven't, then I suppose that's your business. But frankly it really makes you boring to talk to. You kind of sound like one of those mindless ranting sports radio people.........

....and there I was thinking a similar thing about you.

Honestly, all I expected was a......"I didn't mean that there was no possibility that Lynch can't become a star. I just think it extremely unlikely."

 

Yes, I can be a dick(as can we all).....but in my mind there is a big difference between predicting somebody can't achieve a certain level.....and predicting somebody has little chance to achieve a certain level.

 

But hey......it's a message board & that's just my opinion.......I realize that everyone has one......

[Shamrock]

Last year, New Orleans had Deuce McAlister and they took a RB #1, which, granted, was Reggie Bush but still.

The Pats had Dillon coming off a big season and took a RB #1.

 

In 2005 The Bears had Thomas Jones and took Benson.

 

In 2004 The Rams had Faulk still going strong and took Steven Jackson

The Bengals had Rudi Johnson in his prime and took Chris Perry.

 

We all know the Bills had Henry and took Willis.

 

You had a good post and good points but there is likely a team very willing to take a RB that already has one that we're not thinking is in the running.

 

The Saints had Ricky from 1999- all draft picks plus a 1st in 2000 and then took Deuce in 2001... (well, we all know Ricky now)

[Brandon]

JRI111, to say that he didn't carry a full load at Cal really isn't a fair statement and probably isn't even accurate. While it is true that he split some carries at Cal, his total number of catches and carries this past season is very comparable to the other RBs in this draft:

 

Marshawn Lynch: 257

Adrian Peterson: 200

Antonio Pittman: 256

Kenny Irons: 208

Tony Hunt: 304

Brandon Jackson: 221

Lorenzo Booker: 176

Dwayne Wright: 290

Darius Walker: 311

 

If he's right there with everyone else, I don't think it really matters.

 

As for the injury concerns, no one has been able to provide any proof that he has any kind of back injury whatsoever. If it were true and a top prospect had a major injury problem, it would be well documented by now. The fact that it hasn't been leads me to believe its BS and probably a rumor started by a few teams trying to get him to fall to their draft position.

[Band of Merriman]

Good point Kelly, the draft is unpredictable. Sometimes the best strategy is to position yourself to be able to take advantage of whatever opportunities fortune sends your way. How many times have you watched the first round and after hearing a pick said to yourself, "what the F#$@$?????" Happens every year.

But that never happens in Buffalo, right???

 

And the Bills select ... Donte Whitner.

[plenzmd1]

I mostly agree but still, if Houston doesn't take Stupor Mario, the Saints don't take a RB #1. I recall a lot of people pretty surprised that the Rams took Jackson #1. The point is really only that don't be surprised if one of two teams not on the most wanted list very much want or would take Peterson.

 

here is a rumor for ya to that point. From the trenton times. Looks at every team and their RB situtaion

 

Tampa Bay -- There's a crazy rumor fueled by Jon Gruden's praise of Peterson that the Bucs could take the Oklahoma back at No. 4 and then trade Cadillac Williams (Green Bay? Buffalo?) for a pick and a player.

 

Link to the story

 

http://www.nj.com/columns/times/eckel/inde...&thispage=4

[Simon]

The guy is a complete back

 

Great size, vision, hands, explosiveness, speed, break tackle and blocking ability....He can run north/south, pound it or he can run east/west, getting around the corner....

If you actually think all these things are really true, then I can see why you are so desperate to draft Lynch at #12. Although I'm still not sure why you seem so compelled to post the same thing several hundred times. However in your brief analysis I think your overexcitement has caused you to ascribe several traits to Lynch which he simply does not possess.

Great size? 5'11" 217lbs is great size?! Might want to scratch that one out.

Explosiveness? His lack of same is one of my major issues with taking the guy at #12. He doesn't explode through the hole, he doesn't accelerate out of his cuts, he shows no burst at the line of scrimmage, etc. If you need numbers to support this statement just look at the weak numbers he put up in the short shuttle, the vetrtical jump and the cone drills, where I think he did relatively poorly in these agility tests designed to measure explosiveness. Might want to scratch that one out too.

Speed? Once he does get up to speed, I wouldn't consider his speed any better than average. You can list it as some great asett if you want but in reality the numbers show that his speed is not outstanding, but just acceptable.

As for him getting around the corner, give me a break. You can forget about that right now. He could barely get around the corner and then even only occasionally against a bunch of undermanned PAC-10 defenses. I don't think there's any way in hell he's going to be able to beat pro defenders to the ccorner.

And the same also probably goes for lining him up wide. He can get into space against PAC-10 defenders (hell I'm almost 40years old and I can shake loose from some of the 'backers in that conference) but I don't see how he's going to be able to create any separation from the kind of pro defenders he's never really seen before.

 

I like the way the kid balls; he's veratile, he plays hard, he's smart, he's tough and I think he'll make a good addition to somebody's roster. But regardless of whatever fantasies you may have about his speed and exposiveness, I don't think those wishes are in line with reality. If he were still sitting there in the 2nd round I'd have no problem with the Bills giving him a shot to to be a cog in their offense. But that #12 overall pick is reserved for the kind of player that can change games with his abilities, and I think Marshawn's physical limitations exclude him from that group.

Cya

[Simon]

all I expected was a......"I didn't mean that there was no possibility that Lynch can't become a star. I just think it extremely unlikely."........

there is a big difference between predicting somebody can't achieve a certain level.....and predicting somebody has little chance to achieve a certain level.

 

Ummmm, you were the one who was putting words in my mouth by turning my stated opinions into absolutes.

Here are some of my quotes:

"I think he's the kind of guy who can carve out a nice little NFL career"

"I just don't see that in Lynch"

"I think he's another guy in a long line of guys..."

"I think in the next 2-3 years Marshawn Lynch"

"Peterson is the only back I've seen in this draft that fits that description."

"I'm only speaking from my own perspective and what I've seen on the field"

"I just think that when theres that many guys on a list"

"I don't think I'm comfortable spending a pick as valuable as #12"

"he's the best college back I've seen in years"

"I'm only stating my own opinion"

 

And here's what you turned my thoughts into:

 

"So Peterson definitely won't be like....."

"Lynch can't become a star"

"and Lynch definitely wont be like"

"neither will any RB drafted this year"

"I put the quote above into my words......but it was still your meaning"

 

So I was obviously discussing just how I see things and I clearly stated repeatedly that this is only what I think will happen. And you turned it all around by putting it in your own words and adding a whole bunch of absolutes that I never used. And then accused me of being inflexible after you were the one who'd turned my statements into something else entirely.

At the risk of repeating myself, allow me to re-iterate: you're a dick.

[KOKBILLS]

If you actually think all these things are really true, then I can see why you are so desperate to draft Lynch at #12. Although I'm still not sure why you seem so compelled to post the same thing several hundred times. However in your brief analysis I think your overexcitement has caused you to ascribe several traits to Lynch which he simply does not possess.

Great size? 5'11" 217lbs is great size?! Might want to scratch that one out.

Explosiveness? His lack of same is one of my major issues with taking the guy at #12. He doesn't explode through the hole, he doesn't accelerate out of his cuts, he shows no burst at the line of scrimmage, etc. If you need numbers to support this statement just look at the weak numbers he put up in the short shuttle, the vetrtical jump and the cone drills, where I think he did relatively poorly in these agility tests designed to measure explosiveness. Might want to scratch that one out too.

Speed? Once he does get up to speed, I wouldn't consider his speed any better than average. You can list it as some great asett if you want but in reality the numbers show that his speed is not outstanding, but just acceptable.

As for him getting around the corner, give me a break. You can forget about that right now. He could barely get around the corner and then even only occasionally against a bunch of undermanned PAC-10 defenses. I don't think there's any way in hell he's going to be able to beat pro defenders to the ccorner.

And the same also probably goes for lining him up wide. He can get into space against PAC-10 defenders (hell I'm almost 40years old and I can shake loose from some of the 'backers in that conference) but I don't see how he's going to be able to create any separation from the kind of pro defenders he's never really seen before.

 

I like the way the kid balls; he's veratile, he plays hard, he's smart, he's tough and I think he'll make a good addition to somebody's roster. But regardless of whatever fantasies you may have about his speed and exposiveness, I don't think those wishes are in line with reality. If he were still sitting there in the 2nd round I'd have no problem with the Bills giving him a shot to to be a cog in their offense. But that #12 overall pick is reserved for the kind of player that can change games with his abilities, and I think Marshawn's physical limitations exclude him from that group.

Cya

 

Agreed...

 

For Me, and by no means am I saying I'm an expert or anything of the sort, ML is the type of Prospect a Team would be thrilled to get in the late 1st or early 2nd Round...He's a good Prospect, no question...But at #12...I just can't see it...Especially considering the Bills have other Needs at Positions that are FAR harder to fill than RB...I think Lynch could suffer a bit of a slide if things fall wrong for Him on Draft Day (for example if Peterson drops out of the Top 10)...It's happened to some pretty good RB's in recent Years...

 

I think IF The Bills stay at #12, assuming Peterson is gone, it's between P.Willis , L. Hall (likely gone at #12 as well), and (yes I'm going to say it) WR Robert Meachem...I give the edge to Willis because it's a bigger Need right now...But Meachem is My Darkhorse for the Bills and I think He would fit this Offense extremely well...The Bills could Trade Down for Lynch, that's always a possibility...

 

We'll see...

[Bob in STL]

I've had a look through all the teams RB situations. Considering that many teams have just signed up RBs to multi-year mega-million dollar contracts (ala Texans & Jags) I can see only 3 teams in need of starting RBs & another 3 that might be interested.

 

The 3 definitely in need are Bills, Titans & Packers.

 

The 3 maybes are Browns, Panthers & Cowboys.

The Browns just signed Jamal Lewis to a 1yr deal. This gives them the flexibility to draft a QB at the #3 position.

Panthers & 'Boys have Foster & Jones respectively which both might be looking for upgrades.

 

Why not.....

Bucs....Williams was great, then decent....too early to give up on such a high pick.

Vikings....Taylor in 2nd year of big long term deal & produced 1200yds at 4.0 with 6tds.....needs in too many other areas.

Falcons....Led league in rushing...Dunn is very good 1140yds at 4.0 with 4tds....&....Noorwood 633yds at 6.4 with 2tds.....RB by comittee is working well here.

Texans.....just signed Green to 4 year 23mil deal.....not gonna spend on another RB.

 

Basically, if the Browns go for a QB at #3......who gets AP???

Does he fall to #12.......if not, who trades up to get him? It's one thing to say "no way will he drop outside the top 6(10?)" but a team has to consider him worth taking over their other needs.....or worth the expense of trading up to get him. Which teams would justify this?

 

After the draft, if 2 of the 3 teams in need draft 1st round RBs.......who apart from the 3rd team in need will be vying for Turner???

 

Am I mistaken, or is there an absolute glut of RBs in the league at the moment?

 

Good post. We need to come out of the draft with a starting RB and a starting LB. We also need a strong prospect for CB.

 

My stratgey would be to hold off on Turner until our pick comes up. then lets see who iss there and who wants to deal. If Peterson is there (assume Lynch is to) then Turners value goes down. I would take Peterson and then still have 3 picks to address LB and CB needs. Maybe we can trade up to get a player that can start at LB?

 

I prefer that we pick Willis at 12 and then trade for Turner without giving up a first rounder. That would give us two starters as for sure.