The truth about "NEEDING" an RB

[Koufax]

Agreed on all points. I'd go D at #12, even if it were Peterson. But, if you (and I don't mean specifically YOU, MDH) would pick Peterson or Lynch with the #12, then you should be fine with Turner for that pick, IMO.

 

I would take Peterson in a heartbeat if he falls to #12. The reason you can't equate giving up the #12 for Turner with giving it up for Lynch is the contract difference it will take for the next four years. I fully expect Turner to outperform Lynch. I'm still hoping for Willis at #12 and anything but the first for Turner (meaning our second and possibly something else).

 

But if we don't get Turner done before draft day and Peterson falls I would be a very happy camper. If he can stay healthy (my one concern) he is going to be tremendous. And I don't see his injury history as necessarily pointing to an injury future. Peterson is higher on my draft board than Willis, and I think most people agree, which is why him falling to #12 would be a shocker, and nobody mentions Willis going in the top 10.

[The Dean]

I would take Peterson in a heartbeat if he falls to #12. The reason you can't equate giving up the #12 for Turner with giving it up for Lynch is the contract difference it will take for the next four years. I fully expect Turner to outperform Lynch. I'm still hoping for Willis at #12 and anything but the first for Turner (meaning our second and possibly something else).

But if we don't get Turner done before draft day and Peterson falls I would be a very happy camper. If he can stay healthy (my one concern) he is going to be tremendous. And I don't see his injury history as necessarily pointing to an injury future. Peterson is higher on my draft board than Willis, and I think most people agree, which is why him falling to #12 would be a shocker, and nobody mentions Willis going in the top 10.

 

 

 

That's my best case scenario, as well. I have seen many mocks with Wills to SF at #11 and I think I've seen one or two (no links right now) with Willis earlier...but, I may be mistaken.

[ThreeBillsDrive]

That's my best case scenario, as well. I have seen many mocks with Wills to SF at #11 and I think I've seen one or two (no links right now) with Willis earlier...but, I may be mistaken.

 

How much did Indy's O-line contribute to Edge's success in Indy. With a weak O-line in Arizona last season, Edge was just an average back.

 

A great O-line can make an average back have a good season. A poor, porous O-line can make an average back look inept.

 

Turner himself was a 5th round pick. Decent backfield talent can be found in the middle rounds of the draft, assuming exceptional scouting.

[YOOOOOO]

The only true 'franchise' back in this draft is Adrian Peterson. Not Lynch or trading for Turner.

 

 

 

Lynch is the most complete back in this draft....

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

While it is true that without a good line the running game will suffer no matter who carries the rock, a BIG upgrade is needed at RB. Whether it's in the first round or later, I believe the Bills should be looking at finding a STARTER, not a complimentary back.

 

I doubt there are many, if any, teams that would trade their group of RB's for ours.

[34-78-83]

Whoever ends up getting Turner, it would be crazy to think it will involve a 1st round pick (whether this year or next) given up so why is he even mentioned in this argument? You can have Turner AND your 1st round pick.

[The_Real]

Whoever ends up getting Turner, it would be crazy to think it will involve a 1st round pick (whether this year or next) given up so why is he even mentioned in this argument? You can have Turner AND your 1st round pick.

 

 

The reason they are being mentioned together is because of the tender that the Chargers gave him, the highest they could. I'm not certain that I believe that the Bills or any other team would give up a 1st for him, but I do believe it's their starting point.

 

 

 

 

 

The Real

[34-78-83]

The reason they are being mentioned together is because of the tender that the Chargers gave him, the highest they could. I'm not certain that I believe that the Bills or any other team would give up a 1st for him, but I do believe it's their starting point.

The Real

 

 

Nah, that's just the Tender figure. AJ Smith is smart enough to realize that Turner would only be obtained via trade , and the tender is a mere formality that will be waived.

[The Dean]

How much did Indy's O-line contribute to Edge's success in Indy. With a weak O-line in Arizona last season, Edge was just an average back.

 

A great O-line can make an average back have a good season. A poor, porous O-line can make an average back look inept.

 

Turner himself was a 5th round pick. Decent backfield talent can be found in the middle rounds of the draft, assuming exceptional scouting.

 

 

Indy's OL certainly contributed to James success, as it did to Faulk's success, I would never deny that, I hope our OL is good, too. I also agree that decent backfield talent can be found in the mids round (dime-a-dozen, that's my motto)...but, that's not really the point here, is it?

 

If you want to compare a back who looked good on one team and then did not on another, I believe this is a poor comparison, By the time James got to Arizona, he had a LOT of serious mileage on him (he was a work horse in Indy). James had over 2500 rushing attempts and more than 350 receptions with the Colts. (And didn't he suffer a serious injury at one point? I seem to recall it...but, I drink ya know.) I wasn't the biggest Edge fan, but he was FAR better than an average back in his prime.

 

Turner, by comparison, is experienced, but relatively fresh: 157 rushing attempts and 7 receptions. (I'll admit I don't like the look of 7 receptions, but I'm not certain if that's because he sucks as a receiver, which wold not be good in our offense, or if he simply wasn't used that way by Shotzy, which is likely.) But, when it comes to running Turner is a STUD. He is FAR from an average back. Look at his college runs and his pro runs, look at his stats in both college and the pros. If Marv and company (far better talent evaluators than you and I) thought he was average, would Ralph have sent his private flying machine to pick him up and bring him to the Bufftown?)

 

 

An little Edgerrin James aside. Have you seen THIS Edge quote from a September 2006 FHM article about the success of University of Miami alumni in the NFL, titled: "University of Miami Hit Squad. The Hurricanes are Taking Over the NFL. Deal with It."?

 

"We have a little slogan at UM. When you leave the locker room, you say you're going to "hit, stick and bust dick. Then what else? Talk sh--."

 

You Gotta LOVE those boys from the U. So classy!

[Simon]

Lynch is the most complete back in this draft....

I don't mean to imply that he's not a good player; just that he's not a great player. I watch Cal a few times a year just because I dig the diversity and ingenuity of Tedford's offense so I've seen Lynch play some. I actually like him because he plays his ass off, is versatile, and plays a smart game. I think he's the kind of guy who can carve out a nice little NFL career for himself. But with a juicy #12 pick I don't want a guy who can have a nice little career, I want an explosive player who can make plays that change games and I just don't see that in Lynch. I think he's another guy in a long line of guys from Fresno, Oregon and Cal who were solid players that broke or neared school records because they were playing in that Tedford offense and then only went on to be journeyman backs in the NFL. I think in the next 2-3 years Marshawn Lynch will join the company of guys like Onterrio Smith, Michale Pittman, Maurice Morris, JJ Arrington, Ruben Droughns, Saladin McCulough, etc. All those guys were average players who put up big numbers playing under JeffT but couldn't be gamebreakers when they no longer had the advantage of playing in tons of space against inferior defenders.

Lynch will be a nice addition to somebody's team and and able versatile player if utilized properly, but I want a ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip stud with that pick and Peterson is the only back I've seen in this draft that fits that description.

[Lurker]

Onterrio Smith, Michale Pittman, Maurice Morris, JJ Arrington, Ruben Droughns, Saladin McCulough, etc. All those guys were average players who put up big numbers playing under JeffT but couldn't be gamebreakers when they no longer had the advantage of playing in tons of space against inferior defenders.

 

Isn't that list of examples a bit apples-to-oranges in terms of Lynch?

 

* Ruben Droughns--2nd round

* Onterrio Smith--4th round

 

* Michale Pittman--undrafted

* Maurice Morris--undrafted

* JJ Arrington--undrafted

* Saladin McCulough--undrafted

[Dibs]

Lynch is the most complete back in this draft....

Why should I believe you?

 

Everyone......absolutely everyone is predicting AP to be a top 5 talent.....whereas Lynch is wavering from #10 to bottom 1st round.

It seems to me that when you have an opinion that is so vastly different to the majority, (particularly in the realms of talent assessment) some major humility should be present when said opinion is uttered.......or at least some majorly intelligent argument.

 

You may well be right......but you give me no reason to think so.

[Sketch Soland]

I don't mean to imply that he's not a good player; just that he's not a great player. I watch Cal a few times a year just because I dig the diversity and ingenuity of Tedford's offense so I've seen Lynch play some. I actually like him because he plays his ass off, is versatile, and plays a smart game. I think he's the kind of guy who can carve out a nice little NFL career for himself. But with a juicy #12 pick I don't want a guy who can have a nice little career, I want an explosive player who can make plays that change games and I just don't see that in Lynch. I think he's another guy in a long line of guys from Fresno, Oregon and Cal who were solid players that broke or neared school records because they were playing in that Tedford offense and then only went on to be journeyman backs in the NFL. I think in the next 2-3 years Marshawn Lynch will join the company of guys like Onterrio Smith, Michale Pittman, Maurice Morris, JJ Arrington, Ruben Droughns, Saladin McCulough, etc. All those guys were average players who put up big numbers playing under JeffT but couldn't be gamebreakers when they no longer had the advantage of playing in tons of space against inferior defenders.

Lynch will be a nice addition to somebody's team and and able versatile player if utilized properly, but I want a ProBowlin, playmakin, bigballin, bluechip stud with that pick and Peterson is the only back I've seen in this draft that fits that description.

 

This is an interesting argument and a compelling one, i think, the only chink in it being that as already posted that the backs you mentioned were all not 1st round rated backs. One could also argue that Lynch's familarity with a pro style offense and thriving in it would lend him to a fit a pro style offense in the NFL. I'm don't really buy that as a huge selling point, however. In the end, I don't think I would take him at 12 but I think I might be able to be convinced of it if someone put up a compelling enough argument.

[Sketch Soland]

Isn't that list of examples a bit apples-to-oranges in terms of Lynch?

 

* Ruben Droughns--2nd round

* Onterrio Smith--4th round

 

* Michale Pittman--undrafted

* Maurice Morris--undrafted

* JJ Arrington--undrafted

* Saladin McCulough--undrafted

 

Arrington was drafted in the 2nd round, FWIW....

[Simon]

Isn't that list of examples a bit apples-to-oranges in terms of Lynch?

 

* Ruben Droughns--2nd round

* Onterrio Smith--4th round

 

* Michale Pittman--undrafted

* Maurice Morris--undrafted

* JJ Arrington--undrafted

* Saladin McCulough--undrafted

 

You might want to check your sources on that as Pittman was drafted in the 4th and both Morris and Arrington were taken in the 2nd. I don't rememebr where Sim Sim Saladin ended up going but I threw him in as a guy who put up huge #'s at Oregon against PAC 10 defenses in Tedford's offense but went on to do little if anything in the NFL.

Cya

[The Dean]

You might want to check your sources on that as Pittman was drafted in the 4th and both Morris and Arrington were taken in the 2nd. I don't rememebr where Sim Sim Saladin ended up going but I threw him in as a guy who put up huge #'s at Oregon against PAC 10 defenses in Tedford's offense but went on to do little if anything in the NFL.

Cya

 

 

All of this is correct. However, NONE of them were rated as highly as Lynch, I'm sure it's easy to find a list of 2nd-to-6th rd players from ANY conference, team or system that failed to achieve STARDOM in the NFL. Is that really the point. Lynch is not those backs, IMO. He is MUCH better. So, you might say, if those relative scrubs, could carve themselves out a nice career in the NFL, a guy who is MUCH better, and MORE highly rated than any of those back ever were...

 

Well maybe he's not those backs. And, perhaps, he is something seriously special.

 

For what it's worth, based on their styles and their history (especially injury history) I predict Lynch will have a better NFL CAREER (not necessarily 1st year) than AP.

[Lurker]

You might want to check your sources on that as Pittman was drafted in the 4th and both Morris and Arrington were taken in the 2nd. I don't rememebr where Sim Sim Saladin ended up going but I threw him in as a guy who put up huge #'s at Oregon against PAC 10 defenses in Tedford's offense but went on to do little if anything in the NFL.

Cya

Sigh. I misread the ESPN player profile and was looking at the Fantasy Draft Round for Arrington & Morris. Sorry about that.

[MDH]

All of this is correct. However, NONE of them were rated as highly as Lynch, I'm sure it's easy to find a list of 2nd-to-6th rd players from ANY conference, team or system that failed to achieve STARDOM in the NFL. Is that really the point. Lynch is not those backs, IMO. He is MUCH better. So, you might say, if those relative scrubs, could carve themselves out a nice career in the NFL, a guy who is MUCH better, and MORE highly rated than any of those back ever were...

 

Well maybe he's not those backs. And, perhaps, he is something seriously special.

 

For what it's worth, based on their styles and their history (especially injury history) I predict Lynch will have a better NFL CAREER (not necessarily 1st year) than AP.

 

I agree, being a UCLA fan I watch a ton of Pac 10 football. In the last 5 to 6 years I don't remember a back I was as impressed with in the Pac 10 as Lynch other than Bush. I liked Maruice Drew alot but wasn't sure if my homerism was clouding my vision or if his game would translate to the NFL (it appears it has). I think Lynch is a similar player to Drew but with more raw talent. Lynch is faster, more agile and has better hands. The only advantage Drew has over Lynch is power (I'm not sure I've ever seen anybody with thighs as big as Drew's). I think Drew's success last year with Jax is a good indication of what Lynch can do with a good OL.

 

All that being said, I don't want Lynch at 12. I'm not a fan of drafting RBs in the first round as I think good ones can be had later in the draft. The only back I'd like to see the Bills take in the first round of this draft is Peterson and I wouldn't want them to trade picks to move up and get him.

[Paup 1995MVP]

The reason they are being mentioned together is because of the tender that the Chargers gave him, the highest they could. I'm not certain that I believe that the Bills or any other team would give up a 1st for him, but I do believe it's their starting point.

The Real

 

 

Bottom line is this. If we really want Turner which I believe is where Marv is heading. We offer the 3rd and 7th we received from Baltimore. If that doesn't get it done, than we offer this years 2nd. I don't think any other team will offer more than yet. With a 2nd AJ will cave. We draft Willis first round if he is there at 12, and now we have our stud middle LB and our stud RB. We can use our two thirds to draft CB, RG, WR,or TE. If Willis is gone when we are set to pick at 12, we try and trade down a bit to pick up another 2 or 3 and we draft Poz. We have Turner at RB and than we have many options with our other 3 first day picks. How many of you would be very happy with this scenario?

[The Dean]

I agree, being a UCLA fan I watch a ton of Pac 10 football. In the last 5 to 6 years I don't remember a back I was as impressed with in the Pac 10 as Lynch other than Bush. I liked Maruice Drew alot but wasn't sure if my homerism was clouding my vision or if his game would translate to the NFL (it appears it has). I think Lynch is a similar player to Drew but with more raw talent. Lynch is faster, more agile and has better hands. The only advantage Drew has over Lynch is power (I'm not sure I've ever seen anybody with thighs as big as Drew's). I think Drew's success last year with Jax is a good indication of what Lynch can do with a good OL.

 

All that being said, I don't want Lynch at 12. I'm not a fan of drafting RBs in the first round as I think good ones can be had later in the draft. The only back I'd like to see the Bills take in the first round of this draft is Peterson and I wouldn't want them to trade picks to move up and get him.

 

 

Wow. Agreed, agreed and, well...agreed.