My Turner Trade Scenario & Draft

[marck]

Based on present draft projections, team needs and not being able to factor in any late trades within the 1st round of the draft, I provide the following scenario.

 

Trade our 1st pick in the 3rd round in this years draft and next year's 1st to San Diego for Michael Turner. I live out here and this guy is the goods. Size & Speed along with dominant leg strength make him a perfect power back to pair up with Anthony Thomas in the backfield.

 

Now moving to filling our weak areas. I have noticed that Marv and this administration try and make wholesale fixes on a targeted area. For example, the defensive line and secondary in last year's draft and the offensive line in this year's free agencey. Keeping that philosophy in mind, I feel that this draft will focus on the linebacker corps and some enhancement at Tight End. The reason for the TE moves will be that based on the personnel on the roster it might be best to go to a single back, double TE formation as our primary scheme. Therefore with all reasoning defined, here are my picks based on the trade for Turner.

 

12th Pick - Patrick Willis - LB University of Mississippi

43rd Pick - Brandon Siler - LB University of Florida

92nd Pick- Quentin Moses - DE University of Georgia - but outside pass rush linebacker in the NFL -

111th Pick- Michael Allen - TE Whitworth College - Allan (6-6¾, 254 pounds) ran a 4.38 in the short shuttle and 7.37 in the three-cone drill. For the rest he stodd on his numbers from the Combine. 40 Times were 4.56 to 4.62

 

Picks in the 6th and 7th round would be for depth in the secondary and at WR.

 

The emphisis on linebacking would provide the Bills young players with speed and agressiveness and allow the opportunity for depth.

 

Michael Allen is one of the sleepers in this draft. He could be the receiving TE with Royal providing in-line blocking.

 

These are my thoughts and would love to read your feedback.

[DrDawkinstein]

Based on present draft projections, team needs and not being able to factor in any late trades within the 1st round of the draft, I provide the following scenario.

 

Trade our 1st pick in the 3rd round in this years draft and next year's 1st to San Diego for Michael Turner.

 

 

lets just stop right there....

[In space no one can hear]

lets just stop right there....

 

 

Agreed.

 

It might sound "easy" to trade next years first now....but that draft will be here before you know it....and as much as we could go forward next year....we could go backwards.

 

I wouldn't trade next years first in any package unless we are getting Adrian Peterson.

[Stl Bills]

92nd Pick- Quentin Moses - DE University of Georgia - but outside pass rush linebacker in the NFL -

 

I don't think he's supposed to last that long but that would be nice.

[marck]

What is the love affair over Adrian Peterson. This guy is too tall for a running back, he also runs high and at the NFL level will be injury after injury. In my opinion Peterson is more like Chris Brown then Eric Dickerson.

 

Plus, our weakness now is at Linebacker, this draft can shore up that area, getting a RB like Turner takes care of that position and the TE I referenced is a very interesting prospet.

 

 

 

Agreed.

 

It might sound "easy" to trade next years first now....but that draft will be here before you know it....and as much as we could go forward next year....we could go backwards.

 

I wouldn't trade next years first in any package unless we are getting Adrian Peterson.

[DrDawkinstein]

What is the love affair over Adrian Peterson. This guy is too tall for a running back, he also runs high and at the NFL level will be injury after injury. In my opinion Peterson is more like Chris Brown then Eric Dickerson.

 

Plus, our weakness now is at Linebacker, this draft can shore up that area, getting a RB like Turner takes care of that position and the TE I referenced is a very interesting prospet.

 

im all for going heavy defense this draft. especially early. and if peterson and willis are both there at 12, im picking Willis.

 

but im not about to trade our future opportunities for Turner(or anyone really).

 

i think grabbing a back in the 3rd (in your scenario) instead of Moses who probably wont be there, is a better idea. that way, even if the kid doesnt work out, we can go RB in the 1st next year. there are a lot of good backs coming out next year. and that will be the start of the 3rd year in Marv's 3 year plan. heck, i wouldnt even mind if they gave up our 2nd this year for Turner, if they thought he was better than any of the RBs left.

 

im just not a fan of trading away our chances to continue to build this team. especially for Turner.

[marck]

Moses has a chance of being there because he is a tweener. Not big enough for a DE but no experience at at LB. According to Mike Mayock on the NFL Network, he may slip into the 3rd round.

 

There are backs available but none with the profile of a Michael Turner. If you have not watched him play it is easy to say why should we give up a 1st in 2008 for an unknown, however, if LT wasn't in San Diego, this guy would be having 1500 yard seasons. In fact he is so fast he returns kickoffs for the Chargers. Don't know if you knew that or not.

 

This guy is 5'11", 237 lbs and runs in the high 4.3, low 4.4's. He has great leg drive and power. Runs low to the ground and has some wiggle. Turner in my opinion is much better then Peterson who is injury prone or Lynch who has never been "the man" while in college.

 

My thought is to focus on the LB position, get a quality RB and then grab a pass catch TE to go with Royal and have a one back offense similar to the Colts.

 

Also at some point a fullback will need to be drafted. Possibly in the 6th or 7th round.

 

 

im all for going heavy defense this draft. especially early. and if peterson and willis are both there at 12, im picking Willis.

 

but im not about to trade our future opportunities for Turner(or anyone really).

 

i think grabbing a back in the 3rd (in your scenario) instead of Moses who probably wont be there, is a better idea. that way, even if the kid doesnt work out, we can go RB in the 1st next year. there are a lot of good backs coming out next year. and that will be the start of the 3rd year in Marv's 3 year plan.

 

im just not a fan of trading away our chances to continue to build this team. especially for Turner.

[DrDawkinstein]

ive seen him play, at least a handful of times... and you can speculate about anyone's stats IF they were starting...

 

and im not saying Turner stinks. what i AM saying is to have some patience. you are trying to build a team to make a run at the SB now. whereas, im hoping the Bills' front office is trying to build a team that will make a push for the division this year and maybe a wildcard spot. then improve next year again, since we have no starters becoming UFAs.

 

if you trade away that 1st, you have almost no chance of adding any major impact players next year, except thru free agency. and that will be COSTLY.

 

Turner is good. im not arguing with you there. but i dont think he is THAT good that we cash in the future for him now.

 

Speculate and worship all you want, he hasnt proven anything in Buffalo. god forbid he busts, or gets injured, then what do we do next year?

 

and duder, learn to quote, the board does it for you.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

12th Pick - Patrick Willis - LB University of Mississippi

Nuff Said

[Billsjunkie]

111th Pick- Michael Allen - TE Whitworth College - Allan (6-6¾, 254 pounds) ran a 4.38 in the short shuttle and 7.37 in the three-cone drill. For the rest he stodd on his numbers from the Combine. 40 Times were 4.56 to 4.62

 

 

Thats great and all. But how does he play on the field. Were not recruiting track stars here.

The combine is not the tell all of how a player is going to play on the field.

 

Kevin Everett has pretty good speed as well. But has had a hard time grasping the offense and the NFL game.

 

Size and speed are nothing without the ability to play football on the field.

[stinky finger]

I wouldn't trade next years first in any package unless we are getting Adrian Peterson.

STOP RIGHT THERE!

 

 

We should not trade a #1 for any back under any circumstances.

[obie_wan]

Moses has a chance of being there because he is a tweener. Not big enough for a DE but no experience at at LB. According to Mike Mayock on the NFL Network, he may slip into the 3rd round.

 

What purpose would a pass rush DE who can't play LB serve on a defense that does not blitz and needs its LBs to play pass defense?

[NewEra]

Plus, our weakness now is at Linebacker, this draft can shore up that area, getting a RB like Turner takes care of that position and the TE I referenced is a very interesting prospet.

 

Our weakness right now is at RB. Our current starting RB has gotten 2 times in the last 3 years. He is not a Starting RB. hopefully we wont have to find out the hard way. I like the A-train...as a backup. thats what he is. realize it

[marck]

I am glad to see this topic has generated a lot of interest on the board. First of all my goal is to create a competitive team in 2007, not wait for 2008 or 2009. The Patriots have reloaded and have two #1 picks in this draft. The Jets will slip a bit and the Dolphins are in a full rebuild mode.

 

2007 does represent a chance to move into the playoff picture. Position by position we have been rebuilt by Marv and the new administration. Defendive line and secondary last year, offensive line this off-season and now we have two major areas that need improvement, linebacker and running back. I believe everyone on this board has the same general opinion.

 

Now, assuming both Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis are on the board, which do you take? The answer to that question is to look at the alternatives if you choose RB over LB or LB over RB. The draft this year has two high profile "instant impact" RB's Peterson and Lynch. Peterson looks to have the tools and at the college level is dominant, history shows he is prone to injury. He also tends to run high which at the NFL level is open invitation to both injuries and fumbles. For my money, no thanks on Mr. Peterson. Marshawn Lynch has never been the lone back and has some off the field character issues which we really don't need in Buffalo. This disqualifies him. No other back in this draft then left has the potential of a Michael Turner who has both fresh legs, NFL experience and a desire to excel as a starter in this league. Over 900 yards in less then 170 carries shows the kind of skill and power that will be an asset in the NFL.

 

This then allows the Bills to focus on the linebacker position in this draft. Assuming we can use next year's 2nd with a condition to a 1st if Turner proves out (1200 yards, 8 TD's) and one of this year's picks, probably the high pick in the 3rd round, we would have the 12th, 43rd and 92nd pick in this draft on day one. Obviously, the pick if available is Patrick Willis, warrior in the likeness of Takeo Spikes, great character and unbeliviable measureables. He should be the pick at 12. At 43, move on another linebacker, either Brandon Siler of Florida or David Harris of Michigan. One or the other will be their. Harris is more the MLB type, Siler projects either in the middle or the outside. At 92 in the late 3rd round an edge pass rusher can be drafted. This year's draft is loaded with tweener types such as Jarvis Moss, Charles Johnson, Anthony Spencer and Quentin Moses. I hear that Moses could slip into the 3rd round and his size at 6'5" and weight 249 with 4.75 speed in the forty may make him to be a valuable situational pass rusher off the edge.

 

When you add these players along with a RB who behind an improved line, should gain 1200 to 1400 yards means PLAYOFF CONTENDER, and isn't this better holding on to a pick next year for a player who is unknow and wasting a high draft choice on what I consider two high risk RB's.

 

Opinions and thoughts are welcome.

[oregonbbfan]

Everyone keeps saying we have a lot of holes to fill. So we can essentially ADD a pick or player by swapping 1 st's with SD.

 

Another poster ( cannot find who it was ) gave a scenario where with a swap, we get Turner, and #30, or 2 players for our one first. I know there is a point and quality differential of 720 points or what would be the 43rd pick but as we all know, it's a crap shoot. This swap would or should appease AJ ( a 1st and 720 points which equals a second) and we get an additional player who has experience and has all the physical and mental attributes to continue to excel in the NFL. If that isn't enough, screw him and stay at 12 or move down a few spots a pick up picks.

 

Granted, Willis won't be there at 30 but Turner definently fills the RB void, we can then go bigtime on the LB, CB and other positions of need from #30 on. Point is, you got a player of need that is equal in value of Willis and don't lose a pick/player by giving a pick outright.

 

I could live with Turner and Poz over just Willis in round #1. All other projections remain the same. The more picks we get or keep are players that can reduce our risk of missing on a player either through ability or injury.

 

It all depends on if Marv wants to take his chances on who will be on the board, how much of a gamble Marv is willing to take that Turner will still be available and how much he likes Turner. Do we want quality (perceived and a gamble) or quantity ( in a perceived fairly strong draft and reduced risk)?

[jri111]

I am glad to see this topic has generated a lot of interest on the board. First of all my goal is to create a competitive team in 2007, not wait for 2008 or 2009. The Patriots have reloaded and have two #1 picks in this draft. The Jets will slip a bit and the Dolphins are in a full rebuild mode.

 

2007 does represent a chance to move into the playoff picture. Position by position we have been rebuilt by Marv and the new administration. Defendive line and secondary last year, offensive line this off-season and now we have two major areas that need improvement, linebacker and running back. I believe everyone on this board has the same general opinion.

 

Now, assuming both Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis are on the board, which do you take? The answer to that question is to look at the alternatives if you choose RB over LB or LB over RB. The draft this year has two high profile "instant impact" RB's Peterson and Lynch. Peterson looks to have the tools and at the college level is dominant, history shows he is prone to injury. He also tends to run high which at the NFL level is open invitation to both injuries and fumbles. For my money, no thanks on Mr. Peterson. Marshawn Lynch has never been the lone back and has some off the field character issues which we really don't need in Buffalo. This disqualifies him. No other back in this draft then left has the potential of a Michael Turner who has both fresh legs, NFL experience and a desire to excel as a starter in this league. Over 900 yards in less then 170 carries shows the kind of skill and power that will be an asset in the NFL.

 

This then allows the Bills to focus on the linebacker position in this draft. Assuming we can use next year's 2nd with a condition to a 1st if Turner proves out (1200 yards, 8 TD's) and one of this year's picks, probably the high pick in the 3rd round, we would have the 12th, 43rd and 92nd pick in this draft on day one. Obviously, the pick if available is Patrick Willis, warrior in the likeness of Takeo Spikes, great character and unbeliviable measureables. He should be the pick at 12. At 43, move on another linebacker, either Brandon Siler of Florida or David Harris of Michigan. One or the other will be their. Harris is more the MLB type, Siler projects either in the middle or the outside. At 92 in the late 3rd round an edge pass rusher can be drafted. This year's draft is loaded with tweener types such as Jarvis Moss, Charles Johnson, Anthony Spencer and Quentin Moses. I hear that Moses could slip into the 3rd round and his size at 6'5" and weight 249 with 4.75 speed in the forty may make him to be a valuable situational pass rusher off the edge.

 

When you add these players along with a RB who behind an improved line, should gain 1200 to 1400 yards means PLAYOFF CONTENDER, and isn't this better holding on to a pick next year for a player who is unknow and wasting a high draft choice on what I consider two high risk RB's.

 

Opinions and thoughts are welcome.

 

 

 

I agree with you on almost everything (and it's nice to see more analysis and reason on this borad), except for Peterson. I really don't know what it is about Bills fans on this board, but I feel like they are the only ones that question this guys talent! People here seem to fall in either one of three categories on him. The first group of people are those who who question his talents/future sucess because of his running style and injuries (both legitimate concerns btw). The second group of people are those who, any time the see Peterson mentioned are quick to reply "HE WON'T BE THERE AT 12!!!" or "EVEN IF HE FALLS SOMEONE WILL TRADE UP TO GET HIM!!" The thrid group of people recognize his potential to be one of the best backs in the NFL and think the Bills would be fools to pass up on him. This, I believe, is definitiely the minority view for some reason.

 

First off, lets just dismiss group 2 right now. They never provide any analysis, nor do they recoginze that things don't happen as planned (this is especially true in the NFL draft!). I've stated many times now that those that just claim that someone will trade up to get him if he starts to fall, fail to realize that there aren't many teams out there that needs RB's. Now don't get me wrong, there are a number of teams that could use more (almost all really), but who's going to be willing to trade up, lose picks, just to take a guy that is not a #1 need? I don't really feel like going into a full out analysis on this, but the point is, he COULD be there. Is it likely, no. Is is possible, YES.

 

OK, on to your concerns, which are valid. The injuries are a concern, but when you really look at them in context, it's more smoke and mirrors then anyting concrete. The collarbone is a freak injury. It's not a recurring thing and can happen to ANY player in the wrong-unlikely situation. The ankle sprain causes some concern, but he missed minimal game time becuase of it. I think the shoulder may be the biggest concern just because it could be a recurring thing. It's something that you definitily have to look into, but it's NOTHING compared to taking a guy who almost had his knee torn off a few months prior. The shoulder is a medical staff assessment. Obviously they're the only ones that could really gauge it and if they'd be OK with it, then I have faith in their assessement.

 

All-in-all, I think the injuries aren't that major of a concern. He's a guy that ran hard in college and instead of just trying to run around everyone, as most college backs do, he also ran through people. Anytime a player runs hard like this injuries and tweaks are going to happen, it's a part of the game. You have to look at the injuries and how they occured and see if it is a recurring thing or not. In my opinion its not.

 

As far as running style goes, I just don't see how that matters. All great backs are not created from the same mold. Emmitt Smith was a bowling ball. Thurman Thomas and Marshall Faulk were all purpose kind of guys, Eric Dickerson was stronger but quick. They all have different styles, but in the end, it's just pure atheltism that makes a running back great, not his style. You know a few years ago although Larry Johnson gained over 2000 yards his senior season at Penn State, a lot of people were questioning him becuase he ran too "upright" too. He turned out OK you could say!

 

In the end, I think Bills fans discount what this guy could trulely be... I don't know if that's because the potential of him falling to us came out of nowhere, or becuase they're just afraid to take a first round runningback. I dont know. Maybe its because people don't want to set themselves up for a fall from high expectations. Either they don't want to get thier hopes up that Peterson may be there when we pick or because they don't want us to take him and have him not live up to our expectations.

 

Most likely my little rant is moot though because the odds are Peterson wont be there anyways. However, just because its a slim possibility, doesn't discount the man's potential ability, nor should it discount our excitiment if the unthinkable does happen. It would be a gift if Peterson fell to us and an a disaster beyond words if we passed on him (obvioulsy if we get turner AND peterson fell to us it creates an interesting situation, where trading down and holding a kings ransom would be better, but that's another story.....). There's an old saying that "you don't look a gift horse in the mouth," and the bills would be wise to follow it.

 

I'd like to say again though, good post, good anlaysis. I too like turner, and would be happy to see the bills get him (for a reaosnable price). Aside from everything I just said, LB is still priority one and i agree that this organization seems to fill their needs completely rather than just plug in one guy. I definitiley see LB's in the first 4 rounds.

[Pete]

Trade our 1st pick in the 3rd round in this years draft and next year's 1st to San Diego for Michael Turner.

 

Is this you Mike Ditka? Or is it Bobby Beathard smoking crack?