Why we probably try to get two RBs from this draft

[Pyrite Gal]

Last year the roster saw us have WM. A-Train and Shaud and have Shelton at FB with first Neufeld and then later Cieslak able to play FB.

 

WM being gone makes it a virtual definite that we look for an RB and preferably an early pick to at least compete for if not almost certainly be our starting RB. The problem is though that the draft is a real crapshoot with TD offering up once that 50% of choices even in the 1st round do not work out.

 

He does exaggerate a bit if by this he means the picks will be busts because that is not true. A player can be a contributor to the team in a significant way even if he is not starting and if a player contributes but does not start he is not a bust in my book. Ge certainly may disappoint but this probably says as much about the unreasonable expectations of fans as it does about a player.

 

The simple foolishness which does not prove to be true in reality is that fans, our interest stoked by ESPN doing a phenomenal job of marketing the draft with wall to wall coverage and the gravitas and declarations of pseudo certainty from experts like Mel Kiper and in addition, the focus on the individual player rather than the team stoked by the popularity and participation in fantasy leagues, the conventional wisdom is an expectation that a 1st round choice should be an immediate starter.

 

This is not the reality by a longshot.

 

Again, an examination of the depth charts of a teams a couple of weeks ago produced results that of the 32 1st round picks, it turns out that 18 of them were listed as 1st on their team's de[tj chart at their position.

 

Last year's draft was generally considered to be a pretty good class, but just a hair over 50% of these players were starters not immediately but fully a year after the draft.

 

The starters were heavily weighted toward the top 10 picks and since the Bills are picking #12, we are looking at getting a player who might start at some point in 2007 but then again he well might not. Particularly if we are looking at a player like Lynch who is seen as about a #18 ranked talent in many mocks, we simply cannot count on him being good to go right from the start.

 

This does not mean he will be a bust or even a disappointing pick. If he turns out when his career is looked back upon to be a player who produces as well as a 1st round RB choice like Larry Johnson he and everybody else would be quite pleased in retrospect. However, the reality is that in his first two years this perennial Pro Bowler gained 100 yards and change and in his second year gained 500+.

 

Lynch could end up being a very good player and a good pick but simply suck as our #1 RB for a while. For Bills fans this was the same path of production Eric Moulds took, This does not even get into the sad possibilities known to Bills fans that a #4 choice like Mike Williams was in fact a bust and lest you want to blame the Bills for being singularly incompetent, the #3 pick before him was bust Joey Harrington by GM idiot Millen.

 

What I think this means is, that when you look at the Bills roster, there appear to be 5 RB slots. Of these, I think you can be pretty sure that A-Train will have one this year and probably Cieslak will have one of the FB slots.

 

Shaud Williams appears to be a player who might just as easily be cut as kept this year based on his fairly unimpressive performance as our #3 HB last year and Jackson who had a very good year in Europe last year and whom Marv mentioned by name is a possibility to make the roster, but I am sorry is simply a possibility at best who may end up following the same career trajectory of another NFLE RB star Lawrence Phillips.

 

In essence I see the Bills needing to get some bodies in here to compete for the RB slots i order to give us a reasonable shot at finding a lead RB even at the disappointing level of McGahee achievement (a level last achieved by A-Train in terms of yardage gained in 2003 and he also had his most game starts in his career that season which was only 13 which to me means he is almost certainly at best a good #2),

 

I think the Bills draft 2 RB candidates in this draft, Given our significant needs in other areas like LB, my sense is we would be best off using the #12 pick to take an LB and then take an RB with our 2nd or 3rd pick on the first day looking at players like Irons, Pittman or Hunt.

 

Then on the second day we take an RB whom we judge to have the most upside from whoever is left.

 

This likely still is not gonna be enough to have any certainty of filling the twp RB slos t go along with Ap-Train and I think this in part explains the interest in an FA like Turner.

 

However, my sense is that we pick 2 RB candidates on draft day, not necessarily because we have confidence in any particular players, but because any level of certainty or confidence that A-Train, even a first round RB pick or anyone in this draft is going to be adequate to start is simply whistling the dark at best.

[LynchMob23]

Pyrite,

I think that is a good way to look at our situation. Unless we get someone in the first, I feel that we're going to be picking up a 2nd/3rd/4th rounder and either another back late, or one as an UDRFA. To help generate a bit more conversation on this subject, I've found a few candidates for the mid-to-late-rounds and provided video when I could.

 

I know a few people on here are for picking up a guy like Chris Henry, the RB from Arizona, but one of the concerns with him have been the idea he is a "workout warrior". Others, who have seen him play (I cannot say I've seen every game, but I have seen him a few times) say that his line was terrible and he played in a spread offense that wasn't terribly RB-friendly. Anyhoo, here's some info and footage on him:

 

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp...amp;player=7023 - It's the rivals site, so you'll only be able to see one for free.

 

John Murphy's take: Shed his underachiever tag when he blazed across in mid-4.3 40 times at the NFL scouting combine. An impressively built runner that can pound the ball between the tackles when he runs with positive energy and confidence, Henry too often looked to run like he was a 200-pound back, relying on his speed and bouncing plays outside. He needs to run it with more authority and forward lean. He gets taken off his feet by too many arm tackles. He has good hands and may have matured some since making the decision to declare early. He had some issues with the coaching staff, which led him to believe declaring was better than sharing playing time next season. He has thoroughbred skills, but he lacks refinement to his game. He's a good position coach or mentor away from being a very dangerous back.

 

 

Here's the take on Jackie Battle, unfortunately his reel has yet to be put up:

 

John Murphy's take: A combo back that has seen a surge in his draft stock for two reasons: a fantastic pro day session and his productive senior campaign. Battle's pro day numbers match up comparably with top-5 backs in nearly every category: starting with 40 times that ranged between 4.38 and 4.41, 41-inch vertical, 10'11" broad jump, 4.15 short shuttle, 6.35 3-cone and 19 reps of 225 pounds while measuring in at 6-foot-2, 238 pounds. Even though he shared carries and played alongside prolific passer Kevin Kolb, Battle ran for 943 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. He showed better-than-advertised hands during the practices for the East-West Shrine game and can also be a steady blocker when called upon. Battle has shown the skill set to be evaluated in both a one-back system or possibly as a West Coast-style fullback as he will never be a battering ram-type lead blocker. Several teams had him rated as a possible early second-day choice, but his eye-opening workout numbers combined with the medical questions surrounding Louisville's Michael Bush could very well make Battle the most attractive big back still available around the first few rounds.

 

Finally, here's Dwayne Wright - http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp...amp;player=9807

[UConn James]

Pyrite,

I think that is a good way to look at our situation. Unless we get someone in the first, I feel that we're going to be picking up a 2nd/3rd/4th rounder and either another back late, or one as an UDRFA.

 

That's my take on it, too.

 

We've had a bit of luck with UDFAs lately.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

2 Rbs seems a bit too much. We have other areas on the team that we need to address first. I know Rb is one of them but it makes sense to pick one Rb and not 2.

[LynchMob23]

At that point we'd have what, five backs at least? Between the five of them and the line, I'm sure we can get a 1200/13td back. It might be 400/600/200 and 4/5/3 in terms of yards/touchdowns, but I think a platoon can work provided we have complimentary pieces.

[LynchMob23]

2 Rbs seems a bit too much. We have other areas on the team that we need to address first. I know Rb is one of them but it makes sense to pick one Rb and not 2.

 

Well, if we pick up a back to be 1a in the rotation and a guy that is a FB that can play short yardage HB (like a Battle, or McClain or Leonard or whomever) that essentially what we'd be doing no? And like it's been said, it doesn't necessarily have to be a draft pick - we can pick one up as a priority UDRFA.

 

I think linebacker and/or running back are two positions in this year's draft we can draft for versatility and justifying 'doubling up' - either the rb and rb/fb as I mentioned or a lb and a lb/s tweener for depth at both positions.

[JAMIEBUF12]

pyrite girl,you seem to have no faith at all in the a-train.i would like to see the bills get either adrian peterson or marshawn lynch as well,but i also feel if the bills go in another direction that they would be fine with the a-train running behind our new offensive line.i am sure there is good talent in the later rounds for a runningback.i mean even the great "saviour"michael turner was drafted in the 5th round by san diego.if a-train starts a drafted runningback can be a goal line bruiser or just watch and learn.we would then have the luxury of breaking this new back in more slowly.your idea of drafting two runningbacks is not that far fetched.i feel if the bills do draft two runningbacks they would be way lower in the draft is all.if the bills take one of the elite first day picks(ap/ml)there will be no justification to draft more runningbacks.the bills are in a great position picking at#12.we can be patient and any player we take will help the team.i prefer runningback first and then linebacker.i imagine the bills could go defense first and second and then runningback and the bills would still have a great draft.go bills in"07

[Pyrite Gal]

pyrite girl,you seem to have no faith at all in the a-train.i would like to see the bills get either adrian peterson or marshawn lynch as well,but i also feel if the bills go in another direction that they would be fine with the a-train running behind our new offensive line.i am sure there is good talent in the later rounds for a runningback.i mean even the great "saviour"michael turner was drafted in the 5th round by san diego.if a-train starts a drafted runningback can be a goal line bruiser or just watch and learn.we would then have the luxury of breaking this new back in more slowly.your idea of drafting two runningbacks is not that far fetched.i feel if the bills do draft two runningbacks they would be way lower in the draft is all.if the bills take one of the elite first day picks(ap/ml)there will be no justification to draft more runningbacks.the bills are in a great position picking at#12.we can be patient and any player we take will help the team.i prefer runningback first and then linebacker.i imagine the bills could go defense first and second and then runningback and the bills would still have a great draft.go bills in"07

 

 

I have great faith in A-Train and really like him as a player. Last year was a wonderful year for him and he achieved real world firsts in his career which are very impressive at a stage in his career when he has actually exceeded the average career length of NFL RBs (I believe its about 6 years on average and he is entering his 7th year) and many folks had written him off as being well into the backside of his achievements.

 

Nevertheless, the biggest of those firsts was that for the first time he was able to appear in all 16 games, but the fact is this great accomplishment was as a back-up who simply appeared and not the much more difficult task of starting and taking the pounding of going 60 minutes as a starter.

 

In mid-season this year he will hit 30 years old which is an arbitrary dividing line which in no way guarantees a players performance and ability to survive will go down. Yet, reality is reality and if A-Train is gonna be the starter we would need him to not only hold his own and be able to appear once again in 16 games, but actually to once again accomplish a first in his career and be able to start and be our go-to guy in lugging the rock over 30 times a game a few times as starting RBs are required to do when your team is trying to pick up a critical first down late in the game to run out the clock.

 

A-Train really did for us what we needed him to do last year. Most important when WM went out for a few games with the injuries which are not uncommon among NFL players and seem to be the rule rather than the exception for NFL RBs, Thomas played and produced the 100 yard games which one hopes for and demands from a spot back-up.

 

He actually was a good third down back and presented the receiving threat WM never achieved consistently. He did a good job in blitz pick-up and was an adequate blocker when asked to do this.

 

However, it simply would seem foolish from a football standpoint to expect, plan upon, and in fact reply upon a player approaching 30 to actually achieve standards of game starts, carries, and yes total yardage which he has never achieved before as a player.

 

I mean really. His performance line from his best season in in 2003 was:

 

G GS C Yds YPC

2003 Chicago Bears 13 13 244 1024 4.2

 

These are not all that different than from what WM was able to produce for the Bills on the field during his three years and because he turned out to be such an idiot regarding fatherhood and team location folks routinely interpreted these numbers as being really bad work.

 

Are folks really saying that Thomas is going to do better than he has ever done before and has not achieved since 2003 as he approaches 30 years old?

 

Yeah right.

 

It theoretically could happen but the chances of it actually happening are so small as to make it really outrageous for us to expect this to happen and for the Bills to rely on it.

 

Thomas might be a reasonable part of an RBBC set-up but no one should mistake him for being even the performance equivalent of either a McCalister or a Reggie Bush who do the RBBC thing in NO or of Mulroney or Dillon who do the RBBC thing in NE.

[Sisyphean Bills]

The problem is though that the draft is a real crapshoot with TD offering up once that 50% of choices even in the 1st round do not work out.

 

Unfortunately, Donahoe couldn't see past his own ego to realize that going out of one's way to minimize the chances of success in the draft was, well simply put, intensely stupid.

 

Thank goodness that fool is gone.

[obie_wan]

Pyrite,

I think that is a good way to look at our situation. Unless we get someone in the first, I feel that we're going to be picking up a 2nd/3rd/4th rounder and either another back late, or one as an UDRFA. http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp...amp;player=9807

 

Bills will draft a RB in the 3rd of whomever drops. Brandon Jackson or Lorenzo Booker are the fall back plan

 

 

 

they already have the UDRFA in the name of Fred Jackson.

[Lothar]

Interesting hypothesis. I think this possibility holds more credence if we select Brian Leonard in the 2nd. Assuming we go LB in the 1st, we may have a shot at him in the 2nd - I can't think of a better fit as a 3rd down receiver and ultimate team guy after reading about how he nearly single-handedly brought Rutgers back to life - go watch his highlights on the yahoo nfl draft site - his balance and ability to hurdle tacklers is pretty jaw-dropping for a 230 pound fullback who has maybe the best hands of ANY player coming out.

 

If we do go the Leonard route, then I can see us going after a Shaud Williams-like shifty, quick alternative with a 2nd day pick. Some of this may depend on whether we take Willis or not. If we don't get him, I can see us taking a couple LBs instead - including small school prospect Justin Durant.

 

I do think that our tactic will be going after numbers if we don't get a premier pick at the RB or LB positions.

[JAMIEBUF12]

I have great faith in A-Train and really like him as a player. Last year was a wonderful year for him and he achieved real world firsts in his career which are very impressive at a stage in his career when he has actually exceeded the average career length of NFL RBs (I believe its about 6 years on average and he is entering his 7th year) and many folks had written him off as being well into the backside of his achievements.

 

Nevertheless, the biggest of those firsts was that for the first time he was able to appear in all 16 games, but the fact is this great accomplishment was as a back-up who simply appeared and not the much more difficult task of starting and taking the pounding of going 60 minutes as a starter.

 

In mid-season this year he will hit 30 years old which is an arbitrary dividing line which in no way guarantees a players performance and ability to survive will go down. Yet, reality is reality and if A-Train is gonna be the starter we would need him to not only hold his own and be able to appear once again in 16 games, but actually to once again accomplish a first in his career and be able to start and be our go-to guy in lugging the rock over 30 times a game a few times as starting RBs are required to do when your team is trying to pick up a critical first down late in the game to run out the clock.

 

A-Train really did for us what we needed him to do last year. Most important when WM went out for a few games with the injuries which are not uncommon among NFL players and seem to be the rule rather than the exception for NFL RBs, Thomas played and produced the 100 yard games which one hopes for and demands from a spot back-up.

 

He actually was a good third down back and presented the receiving threat WM never achieved consistently. He did a good job in blitz pick-up and was an adequate blocker when asked to do this.

 

However, it simply would seem foolish from a football standpoint to expect, plan upon, and in fact reply upon a player approaching 30 to actually achieve standards of game starts, carries, and yes total yardage which he has never achieved before as a player.

 

I mean really. His performance line from his best season in in 2003 was:

 

G GS C Yds YPC

2003 Chicago Bears 13 13 244 1024 4.2

 

These are not all that different than from what WM was able to produce for the Bills on the field during his three years and because he turned out to be such an idiot regarding fatherhood and team location folks routinely interpreted these numbers as being really bad work.

 

Are folks really saying that Thomas is going to do better than he has ever done before and has not achieved since 2003 as he approaches 30 years old?

 

Yeah right.

 

It theoretically could happen but the chances of it actually happening are so small as to make it really outrageous for us to expect this to happen and for the Bills to rely on it.

 

Thomas might be a reasonable part of an RBBC set-up but no one should mistake him for being even the performance equivalent of either a McCalister or a Reggie Bush who do the RBBC thing in NO or of Mulroney or Dillon who do the RBBC thing in NE.

pyrite you make alot of sense.i think there is a good quality you overlooked about the a-train.yes he is approaching 30,but i think he has fresh legs.when he got cut from chicago he was not used very much.if our offensive line jells a bit faster than normal anthony could take less of a pounding.i am sure he will also have lots of help from whomever we draft at runningack as well.it would even be nice to see fred jackson bring something to the table and make the team.go bills in"07

[Pyrite Gal]

pyrite you make alot of sense.i think there is a good quality you overlooked about the a-train.yes he is approaching 30,but i think he has fresh legs.when he got cut from chicago he was not used very much.if our offensive line jells a bit faster than normal anthony could take less of a pounding.i am sure he will also have lots of help from whomever we draft at runningack as well.it would even be nice to see fred jackson bring something to the table and make the team.go bills in"07

 

Possibly, but I think the key consideration here is let us simply assume that A-Train is just as good a player approaching 30 as he was when he was 26 (I know in general this defies normal reality but lets look at this optimistically) if this just as good player performs as well as he used to his line is good but not great or what we want,

 

What folks are banking on is that:

 

1. A-Train will defy aging that led to him not being good enough or healthy enough to start since 03.

2. His age defying efforts will be further enhanced by an OL which will work out for us quite well and Fairchild running a productive O.

3. He not only will produce at his former level in 03 but in fact will improve his production beyond the just over 1000 yards gained,

4. He will avoid the slings and arrows of injury which can cost anybody starts.

 

If all these items work out (and probably others I am not thinking about right now) then A-Train will be the starting RB we want and feel we need.

 

I think that all this adds up to us likely ending up with 3 RBs on the final roster who are not there now and this likely means two RB pick-ups in this draft.

[Mark Long Beach]

I also think that a second RB is likely.

 

We (the coaches) have seen what we've got. It ain't much, but they feel it's enough to not panic. Drafting 2 RB's would not panicking but rather I think it would be an honest attempt to improve the position via competition. If Shaud and fred can beat out a late rounder, then they should stay. If not, then we move on. Remember Lionel Gates from last year, he looked pretty good as a runner. But he had other issues (to say the least). You never know when you could get lucky and find a late rounder who can put it all together.

 

We've seen what Shaud can do, and it aint much. I fear the same for Jackson. Adding a late round pick in addition to a higher draft pick into the mix just increases the likelyhood of us having a credible starter, or more likely a credible backup in case of injury or a starter that just isn't cutting it (a reasonable likelyhood). If Jackson steps up, all the better for us.

[Chilly]

Pyrite,

 

The issue for me is that, unlike many positions, I believe that RB is one of the easiest to be able to come in and perform at.

 

Just this past year there were 4 running backs drafted in the 1st round. Bush, Maroney, Williams, and Addai. All four turned out to have a large impact on their teams. Some RBs from other rounds, including White, Drew, and Norwood, all had a decent impact as well. In fact, the only RB from the first 3 rounds who didn't was Brian Calhoun (drafted by Detroit).

 

In 2005 you had Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Frank Gore, Vernand Morency, in the first 3 rounds. All of these players had at least somewhat of an impect, although Shelton and Morency's contributions could be debated.

 

In 2004, Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, Greg Jones, all of whom had an impact their rookie years.

 

My point to all of this is when you draft a guy in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, you aren't usually drafting part of a 3-headed RBBC monster. These players make serious impacts right away, and they are the type of player who is expected to start or come close to it.

 

Therefore, if we take a RB early, I do not expect the Bills to take 2 RBs in the draft.