Christopher Capolupo Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 The going rate for solid RBs that are established and/or pro bowl caliber (edge, thomas jones, even shawn alexander and tra henry) has not been a 1st round draft choice in recent years. Willis McGahee was worth two 3rd Rounders(next year's most likely late round as well) and a 7th. So why would the Bills even consider giving up more than an early third or at most two 3rd rounders for Turner? He can be effective, has less wear, we know all of this. An argument against the RBs mentioned above was they would be expensive to sign long term, but do we actually think that Turner will come cheap? The only way that we will trade for him is if he signs a long term deal; and he is going to demand starter money. He won't come cheap either. IMO, anything more than two 3rd rounders or POSSIBLY next years 2nd (hopefully mid to late rd) is costing too much for this guy. We can address RB in the draft in the 2nd round for much cheaper and potentially a better fit depending on who is there. I hope we don't overpay for MT. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 The going rate for solid RBs that are established and/or pro bowl caliber (edge, thomas jones, even shawn alexander and tra henry) has not been a 1st round draft choice in recent years. Willis McGahee was worth two 3rd Rounders(next year's most likely late round as well) and a 7th. So why would the Bills even consider giving up more than an early third or at most two 3rd rounders for Turner? He can be effective, has less wear, we know all of this. An argument against the RBs mentioned above was they would be expensive to sign long term, but do we actually think that Turner will come cheap? The only way that we will trade for him is if he signs a long term deal; and he is going to demand starter money. He won't come cheap either. IMO, anything more than two 3rd rounders or POSSIBLY next years 2nd (hopefully mid to late rd) is costing too much for this guy. We can address RB in the draft in the 2nd round for much cheaper and potentially a better fit depending on who is there. I hope we don't overpay for MT. Opinions? Well that's easy. It's because the life of a running back is estimated at 5 years. Michael Turner's essentially got < 1 in terms of carries. His stats: 2004 - 20 carries, 104 yards (5.2 avg) 2005 - 57 carries, 335 yards (5.9 avg) 2006 - 80 carries, 502 yards (6.3 avg) Career - 157 carries, 941 yards (6.0 avg) We could certainly debate if those numbers are inflated from LT or not. People said that about Larry Johnson when he was still spelling Priest Holmes, but he's held his own. Let's exclude that from the arguement though. In any event, you mentioned running backs that only garnered a 2nd round pick or worse. It's all about carries though. The lower the carries, the higher the value. Look at the value drop off for the RBs you mentioned at the time of the trade (or attempt of): Edgerrin James - 7 years, 2,200 carries (4.1 avg) (could not get a desired 2nd round pick; signed as FA w/ arizona) Shaun Alexander - 6 years, 1717 carries (4.5 avg) (could not get desired 2nd round pick; resigned w/ seattle) Thomas Jones - 7 years, 1,349 carries (4.0 avg) (swapped second round picks w/ jets) Travis Henry (TEN) - 7 years, 1321 carries (4.1 avg) (released from titans) Travis Henry (BUF) - 4 years, 963 carries (4.0 avg) (traded to TEN for 3rd round pick, 2006) Willis McGahee - 4 years, 868 carries (3.9 avg) (traded to ravens for 3rd, 7th in 2007; 3rd round 2008) It's hard to say what the value is for a guy that's given interested teams a preview at the NFL level w/o significant wear and tear. It's funny, people put so much value into a first round pick- but 50% of the time the guy's not even on the team a few years later. Our first rounders since 2000: erik flowers (cut) mike williams (cut) nate clements (FA departure) willis mcgahee (traded) lee evans (active) jp losman (active) (33% cut; 66% no longer on team) If the Bills really believe Turner's a superstar, I guess you trade for him. I think if the Bills can manage to swap first rounders w/ san diego and send a 3rd...they should do it. If they have to send the first rounder straight up it won't be the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Capolupo Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Yeah, it won't be the end of the world, but is there a game changing LB/CB in rd 2?? or even at the end of round 1? We are sitting pretty at 12 because we can get a player that will come in and start NOW at a position that desperately needs to be filled. While I do believe we need to fill RB pretty bad, I think that could be done in the second round and get a pretty good back. I just don't see that same talent and impact in round 2 for those other positions. Agree/Disagree? If you see someone I have overlooked at those positions, I would love to know about them. It would make parting ways with that prime pick easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Yeah, it won't be the end of the world, but is there a game changing LB/CB in rd 2?? or even at the end of round 1? We are sitting pretty at 12 because we can get a player that will come in and start NOW at a position that desperately needs to be filled. While I do believe we need to fill RB pretty bad, I think that could be done in the second round and get a pretty good back. I just don't see that same talent and impact in round 2 for those other positions. Agree/Disagree? If you see someone I have overlooked at those positions, I would love to know about them. It would make parting ways with that prime pick easier. yeah, but you're assuming they're going to draft a LB/CB in round 1. If they end up drafting Lynch at 12, would you have rathered they just trade for Turner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Capolupo Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 to be honest, i think I would rather draft lynch.. Although I am thinking in a biased state of mind feeling those other positions need to be filled sooner than later, I think that if lynch is drafted at 12, it means Marv and Co. feel that lynch is a better fit for the bills and will prosper more than MT would in our offense. Either way, go Bills! And do you know of either a CB/LB you really like in late 1 or rd 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 to be honest, i think I would rather draft lynch.. Although I am thinking in a biased state of mind feeling those other positions need to be filled sooner than later, I think that if lynch is drafted at 12, it means Marv and Co. feel that lynch is a better fit for the bills and will prosper more than MT would in our offense. Either way, go Bills! And do you know of either a CB/LB you really like in late 1 or rd 2? well, in terms of CB I like Darrelle Revis if he could drop to late round 1. In terms of LB, outside of the big names, I'd just be guessing. haha, you know, it's just with the Bills, you have no idea who they'd take at 12. And whoever it is...about 50% of this board won't be happy. Right now it looks like it could be Lynch, Willis, Posluszny, Okoye, or Hall. or I suppose Turner. I think I'd be happy with any of those except perhaps Posluszny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Capolupo Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 I would love Willis, Posluszny if we can get him later in the 1st (trade back into the 1st round like we have in the past after selecting someone at #12).. I don't think I am comfortable with Okoye, but Hall would be a great addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 2004 - 20 carries, 104 yards (5.2 avg)2005 - 57 carries, 335 yards (5.9 avg) 2006 - 80 carries, 502 yards (6.3 avg) Career - 157 carries, 941 yards (6.0 avg) Says one thing about him. BACK UP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Says one thing about him. BACK UP! yeah, he's SD's backup to LT...so that's why his carries are low. (i'm informing you of this since you've clearly never seen him play before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Says one thing about him. BACK UP! I haven't seen posts of this quality since BF left TSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 yeah, he's SD's backup to LT...so that's why his carries are low. (i'm informing you of this since you've clearly never seen him play before) I think MT is the best change-of-pace back in the league. It doesn't mean I want him to shoulder the load of a starting RB, which leads me to my concluding thought. If MT is that good, we could probably have him next year for pretty much the same money and no draft picks, assuming no one caves in to the silly idea of trading a #1 for him. I say shoot for Adrian Peterson if you're going to trade picks to get a RB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoondckCL Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 The going rate for solid RBs that are established and/or pro bowl caliber (edge, thomas jones, even shawn alexander and tra henry) has not been a 1st round draft choice in recent years. Willis McGahee was worth two 3rd Rounders(next year's most likely late round as well) and a 7th. So why would the Bills even consider giving up more than an early third or at most two 3rd rounders for Turner? He can be effective, has less wear, we know all of this. An argument against the RBs mentioned above was they would be expensive to sign long term, but do we actually think that Turner will come cheap? The only way that we will trade for him is if he signs a long term deal; and he is going to demand starter money. He won't come cheap either. IMO, anything more than two 3rd rounders or POSSIBLY next years 2nd (hopefully mid to late rd) is costing too much for this guy. We can address RB in the draft in the 2nd round for much cheaper and potentially a better fit depending on who is there. I hope we don't overpay for MT. Opinions? The other thing that people are forgetting about Michael Turner is that he is an unrestricted free agent after this season. The Bills would have to work out a deal with Turner in advance if they were interested in acquiring his services. Who is to say that Michael Turner is any kind of agreeable person? Just because LaDanian Tomlinson is, does not mean Turner is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobinaz Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 I think the Bills should go with what they have in the draft. There's plenty of talent at RB and the Bills wouldn't have to break the bank. The Bills need the picks and I wouldn't be disappointed if they did some trading down and get an extra pick if the players they really want at #12 aren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
js14414 Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Between what they would have to give MT to extend his contract and a high drat pick, I'm hoping for the draft. Anything more than a 3rd rounder might be too high. While Mt may turn out to be the real deal, it's still different when you 're not getting 20 plus carries as far a ypc average. While they are 2 different backs but MT reminds me of Lamont Jordan before he became the man for Oakland. No way should we give up a first or second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 I'd give a mid 2nd for him and thats it- I think he's very similar to the back we just traded- decent power - decent speed, not much of a receiver- I thought the reason we got rid of McGahee was we weren't going to give big money to a RB unless he's special- I think MT could be a decent starting RB but if you think he's going to have some mad ypc ave if he gets 300+ carries I think you're mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 I know it sounds stupid, but teams pay more for potential. You have a guy in his mid 20's, already got used to the NFL way of doing things, showed his talent on a limited basis, that player is like gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsguy Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Says one thing about him. BACK UP! It brings back fond memories of Rob Johnson! If Marv trades a 1st and more for Turner I think he is making another in a series of mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 I know it sounds stupid, but teams pay more for potential. You have a guy in his mid 20's, already got used to the NFL way of doing things, showed his talent on a limited basis, that player is like gold. Well...I see what you're saying...Often times it's the unknown and "the P word" that drive the price up...But in the case of Turner this all seems pretty simple to Me...The Market has been set for the Trade of a Starting HB in need of a New Contract (see Willis McGahee and Thomas Jones)...The difference with Turner is the fact that SD has little to no incentive to Trade Turner outside of getting some type of compensation before He leaves as an UFA next Off Season...The reason SD has little to no incentive is the fact that about half the Free World is going to pick them to Win the Super Bowl this coming Season. And if you're THAT close having Turner as a Back-Up to LT (regardless of the Contract situation) is actually a BIG plus...If AJ Trades Turner and LT misses a few games in 2007 it could REALLY back-fire on The Chargers...So why do it unless You get blown away by an offer? AJ is just sitting back and hoping SOME Team over-compensates Him for Turner...And in this League chances are someone will. The only reason the Bills remain part of the reported Trade possibilities is the fact that they own the #12 Overall Pick...And if I was Marv there is no way I Trade that pick for Turner...Not a chance in hell...Furthermore I would not give up #43 either...Especially when any Team that Trades for Turner is going to have to pony up for a BIG long Term Deal in addition to the Draft compensation... I like Turner, He's a REAL exciting young RB...But anything more than Market value for him is just...well...not too smart if you ask Me...And no one did by the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Well...I see what you're saying...Often times it's the unknown and "the P word" that drive the price up...But in the case of Turner this all seems pretty simple to Me...The Market has been set for the Trade of a Starting HB in need of a New Contract (see Willis McGahee and Thomas Jones)...The difference with Turner is the fact that SD has little to no incentive to Trade Turner outside of getting some type of compensation before He leaves as an UFA next Off Season...The reason SD has little to no incentive is the fact that about half the Free World is going to pick them to Win the Super Bowl this coming Season. And if you're THAT close having Turner as a Back-Up to LT (regardless of the Contract situation) is actually a BIG plus...If AJ Trades Turner and LT misses a few games in 2007 it could REALLY back-fire on The Chargers...So why do it unless You get blown away by an offer? AJ is just sitting back and hoping SOME Team over-compensates Him for Turner...And in this League chances are someone will. The only reason the Bills remain part of the reported Trade possibilities is the fact that they own the #12 Overall Pick...And if I was Marv there is no way I Trade that pick for Turner...Not a chance in hell...Furthermore I would not give up #43 either...Especially when any Team that Trades for Turner is going to have to pony up for a BIG long Term Deal in addition to the Draft compensation... I like Turner, He's a REAL exciting young RB...But anything more than Market value for him is just...well...not too smart if you ask Me...And no one did by the way... Also, if I were Marv, (a) I wouldn't say or do anything to show my hand (we still have 4 weeks, and this is a buyer's market); (b) Even if I wasn't interested in Turner at all, it serves as a neat diversion for the REAL #12 pick--keeping teams like Green Bay guessing; © I have a bevy of backs in each round of the draft that I have looked at and ranked for different scenarios. I'm not "targeting" one specific back, despite what we might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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