who is going to stop the run?

[richNjoisy]

but he may go to SF-

 

so the Bills will trade up to #10 with Houston to make sure they get him

 

 

That IS a risk but looking at the Niners needs - my guess is that they need a DE more than they need a LB.

 

Jamaal Anderson or Gaines Adams seem to be their likely pick...depending on who is still there.

 

Trading up is very costly this high up. Trading up out of the 2nd into the lower part of the 1st is nowhere near as costly and can be highly beneficial.

[tennesseeboy]

nice analysis of the cover 2

http://espn.go.com/ncf/columns/davie/1437187.html

[obie_wan]

That IS a risk but looking at the Niners needs - my guess is that they need a DE more than they need a LB.

 

Jamaal Anderson or Gaines Adams seem to be their likely pick...depending on who is still there.

 

Trading up is very costly this high up. Trading up out of the 2nd into the lower part of the 1st is nowhere near as costly and can be highly beneficial.

 

Adams and Anderson will both be gone. Carriker is the more likely target, but it would be early for him.

 

However, they may be interested in Branch to achor their 3-4, if they aren 't scared off by the Mike Williams type motivational problems.

 

Moving up would cost 100 points which is about a 4th round pick. (or the 3rd from Balt in 2008)

 

that would be well worth it to secure the key cog in your cover-2 scheme.

[OCinBuffalo]

People have to alter their understanding of how the Bills defense will be run. They (right or wrong) are going with a scheme that relies on the DT's to penetrate the Line of Scrimmage to force or disrupt or running plays in the backfield. They are not as hung up as many of us are , or believe, in the whole 1 technique vs. 3 technique thing. Sure they have guys that are 1 technique-ish (if that's a word) but I don't believe they are going with the traditional 4-3 where you have your 2 distinct types of DT's.

Great post - and here's something else to think about. For the last two days I have obviously been talking about this trade with my friends here in Philly, and the bar tenders, and the servers, and even the bums that hit me up for money outside the store, anybody who knows I am a Bills fan :lol: I'm not going out tonight and I'm not answering my phone .

 

All of them are saying the same thing. "Walker wants to penetrate the line of scrimmage too much and they run away from him" or "Walker is always trying to rush the passer instead of holding his position" or "Sure Walker got 6 sacks last year, but they were mostly against Dallas(playoff team so WTF?) and New Orleans(another playoff team so WTF? - I just laugh when I hear this one).

 

So what does this mean? IMO, Walker is perfect for us. We want him to penetrate the line of scrimmage as much as possible, we don't want him to hold his position - we do want a sack threat up the middle because that makes Schobel's job easier, and who doesn't want a guy who wreaks havoc against playoff teams?

 

All in all, it sounds like the things that makes Walker struggle in a zone-blitz scheme is the same things that will make him thrive in a cover 2. Haven't heard anybody really question his heart and he's supposed to be pretty smart - so I think we might have something here.

[Sketch Soland]

With the 8 roster spots on the defensive line now determined, I still don't see how we can stuff the run. Walker is a penetrator and plays the same position as Triplett. Williams and Mcgargo are not run pluggers.

 

You know McCargo can't stop the run? You also know what our LB core is going to look like and how that will affect how we play the run? You do not accept the possibility that Williams will improve dramatically in his second year in the league? You do not accept the Walker's possible presence as a possible disruptive force will help his fellow lineman play their positions with more effectiveness, especially since the Cover-2 puts a premium on penetrating DT's as essential to its proper functioning?

 

You assume too much right now, imo, without tempering your statements with the proper context.

[Pyrite Gal]

Okoye will be long gone by #12.

 

Bills will stop the run by getting LBs that will actually fill the cut back lanes as our DTs disrupt the backfield. All 4 DL will be attacking the backfield and causing confusion.

 

Willis is key to manning the middle so Bills will trade up to #10 to leapfrog SF.

 

I think good diverse MLB play is going to be a key to getting this done (which is why i think we will likely struggle a bit if we go with a rookie as MLB starter) buy like it or not though the LBs attacking would be great (I think TKO not being able to attack like he can when he was healthy was a bigger problem than Fletch's play as I think the MLB was simply required in our D to pass cover a lot.

 

I think the run issue starts with the DL like it or not and no LB switch is going to make the difference better DL play would make in stopping the run. The good news is I think there is hope there. I think that the DL roles will be:

 

DL: DTs generally are penetrators more than run stuffers, with in general the LDT (Triplett and Walker in rotation) having a big penetration focus and it is to be hoped drawing alot of doubles and with the RDT (Williams and McCargo) also being used to penetrate alot but having a first call of holding the line and occupying the center of the field on run plays. The RDTs and LDTs will likely rotate responsibility as who penetrates and who holds the line (and even flip flop player positions) so as to confuse the opposing OL, but this appears to be the general approach.

 

I think folks are over concentrating on how a player tends to play or likes to play (for example use of 3- technique approaches). Miller appears to be a perfect 3-technique player, but though he will use this generally if this is all he does he will be easily nullified. A player must change up strategies a bit and even positions a bit or he will get killed in the NFL. In term of categorizing players, it seems more reasonable to me to label a player as a specific technique type as though he does that all the time (he does not or he would be ineffective), but to recognize he may do something a lot but not exclusively at all.

 

An example of this is that a lot of folks rended their gowns last year complaining that the Triplett McCargo pick was dumb as both were three technique players doing the same thing. Generally true but not dumb at all as the way we tend to operate is using such a rotation effort at DT that everybody plays alot making the "who start" question less meaningful and also that every DT is expected to be good at doing 3 technique. 2 gap play, or whatever as the way a player performs is going to have to be rotated and difficult to predict or he will get killed.

 

One can see this in the depth chart where alleged same as Triplett because he was a 3 technique player McCargo is now 2nd on the depth chart at the RDT position behind Williams rather than the LDT position. Our DTs are of a similar weight because though they may be better at a particular style they are required to play different styles well enough to be plugged in at either DT position.

 

Our DEs are expected to be the high motor types which the Bills love as they are generally expected to be pass rush guys (as opposed to what was expected of them in the Gray/LeBeau zone blitz which called upon the DEs to be athletic enough to sometimes drop back into short zone pass coverage as the LBs would then unexpectedly (at least we hoped) pass rush like he was a DE.

 

In the Cover 2 the DEs are not required to do the pass coverage they often did in the zone blitz (Schobel increased his sack numbers not because he suddenly learned how to pass rush better but because he increased the number of pass rushes he made as he was no longer required to zone pass protect). However, since the DTs are now called upon in the Cover 2 to sometimes abandon the middle holding the line in order to penetrate, our DEs are called upon to sometimes mover laterally along the line rather than pass rush to lend support to the run stopping effort.

 

Overall in terms of the DL, I expect them to do a better job this season in terms of stopping the run. It will not improve so much because of better personnel (Walker is far more of a sack guy rather than a run stopper, but I expect both McCargo and Williams will improve at DT and playing the Cover 2 in their second year.

 

McCargo has had a different surgical technique used on his damaged leg and we will find out whether this has solved his injury issue or whether Bills not only spent a lot to move up in the draft for a player who contributed little his rookie year, but also whether he is simply damaged goods. In addition, 07 should provide a direct challenge to Triplett to see if the Bills simply made a poor assessment of this FA, or whether he steps up this year.

 

The DE situation should be pretty good as I think Schobel is the real deal and he may noticeably improve on a Pro Bowl year as this will be his second year in the Cover 2, I think the Bills spent a lot more than he showed so far in his career, but under the new CBA all salaries are going up like crazy. Denney and Hargrove are both most interesting because both of these players have shown they can actually play DT in a pinch. We should be fine at DT, but if Fewell can get a bit more run support from these players when they are in at DE that will help.

[BillsVet]

I know it's from Bob Davie, a college guy who didn't do so well at ND, but here's a breakdown of the Cover-2. Very similar with the SI article from December. Of course the Bills will probably be more complex, but these are the basics.

Cover2

 

 

You saw that too Tennessee Boy? Not bad.

[Mike in Syracuse]

One thing that we may have forgotten is that we used to have a defensive lineman that was capable of doing both. Although he was a fat tube of goo Sam Adams was able to shoot into the backfield with amazing speed when he wanted to. For reasons that still seem bizarre, neither he nor Pat Williams were instructed penetrate but rather hold the line.

 

I would have loved to seen what those two could do if they were turned loose.

[Pyrite Gal]

This is absolutely correct - the Tampa 2 defense (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_2) -- not a bad writeup -- is designed for speed and gang tackling.

 

Fast D-linemen shoot the gaps and disrupt the play call. Meanwhile, the LB's are supposed to attack to the line of scrimmage going to the ball.

 

So many people here are hung up on having to have a HUGE Sam Adams-type to clog the middle.

 

I also agree with ganesh about Kyle Williams. I was AMAZED to see a rookie defensive lineman play so well. He has nothing but upside folks. What a great draft Marv had last year.

 

Seems to me that Patrick Willis would fit in very nicely in this defense. He SHOULD be there at 12. should be.....

 

Run stop support comes from a couple of different areas of the D from what I have seen. First, on outside runs, it is useful and important for the CBs to really do some serious run support, the DTs are committed inside as the attempt to penetrate and the LBs are backing up the empty spaces left by the DTs and in the aggressive style we want our LBs to play they are filling thoes gaps hard.

 

If the RB appears to be leaning in or headed up the middle, but it really is a play fake and he plans to bounce it outside as quick as he can the RB may get big yards if he can get around these defenders attacking inside hard. Part of the run support on this type of play comes from the CB making a good read and instead of clearing out with the WR running a 10 yard or so pattern or getting effectively blocked by the WR, our CB will need to make the read and get the ballcarrier.

 

This is one of the reasons I think Youbouty fits our D quite well. One of the flaws in his game in draft assessments last year was the complaint that he looked into the backfield too much and sometimes did not focus enough on the WR. He of course needs to improve and simply do things right, but in general, him keeping a big focus on run support is fine IMHO as our CBs have the short zone and are expected to lean inwards rather than provide deep cover. Youbouty in particular has a rep as a very competitive person who is a good hand fighter with receivers who specializes in press coverage. His game appears built toward keeping the play and the receiver in front of him and this works well for run support.

 

In addition, we saw the defender who benefited most in terms of recognition from the switch to the Cover 2 was Aaron Schobel. In the LeBeau/Gray zone blitz he had actually lost a few pounds to increase his speed and agility as our DEs were quite often required to peel off into short (and even medium) zone coverage as the zone blitz would bring theoretically surprising blitzes from multiple LBs. Schobel actually did quite well at this IMHO, but ended up losing what appeared to be as much as 1/4 of the sack opportunities a DE might normally get as he was pass covering rather than blitzing on a lot of passing downs.

 

With the Cover 2, the DE was called upon to simply rush alot more and with more chances for Schobel came more sacks and had him among league sack leaders and got him a Pro Bowl start.

 

However, the elimination for the most part of pass coverage duty does not mean that all our DE should be is a one trick pony you simply wind up and send after the passer. With the DTs focusing on penetrating so much it becomes more critical for the DEs to make good reads and pinch toward the middle if need be to shore up the run. As described aove the CB has important run support duty in the Cover 2 on outside runs, but one of the first jobs on these runs is for the DE to make sure he is not sealed off to the inside by a blocking tackle or by the TE as this will be the first determinant of whether in fact the RB successfully gets outside. A good DE is aware of the play and where folks seem to be going so that he either provide support inside at the LOS if the DT has left the spot unoccupied trying to penetrate or to make sure his rush moves straight upfield in a manner which cuts off the outside run.

[JinWPB]

A few points that apply that have not been mentioned although they have been in other posts.

It will not be a "new" system this year on both sides of the ball.

We got rid of 3 average players on D, 2 were getting older and slower, 1 only showed up half the time.

The O should be a LOT better this year.So if we jump out front early on teams the number of running plays we face should be way down.

 

So it all boils down to how we address the few remaining holes we have. We could be "very" goor this year.

Lets hope the 07 Bills are the surprise team this year.

[obie_wan]

Run stop support comes from a couple of different areas of the D from what I have seen. First, on outside runs, it is useful and important for the CBs to really do some serious run support, the DTs are committed inside as the attempt to penetrate and the LBs are backing up the empty spaces left by the DTs and in the aggressive style we want our LBs to play they are filling thoes gaps hard.

 

If the RB appears to be leaning in or headed up the middle, but it really is a play fake and he plans to bounce it outside as quick as he can the RB may get big yards if he can get around these defenders attacking inside hard. Part of the run support on this type of play comes from the CB making a good read and instead of clearing out with the WR running a 10 yard or so pattern or getting effectively blocked by the WR, our CB will need to make the read and get the ballcarrier.

 

This is one of the reasons I think Youbouty fits our D quite well. One of the flaws in his game in draft assessments last year was the complaint that he looked into the backfield too much and sometimes did not focus enough on the WR. He of course needs to improve and simply do things right, but in general, him keeping a big focus on run support is fine IMHO as our CBs have the short zone and are expected to lean inwards rather than provide deep cover. Youbouty in particular has a rep as a very competitive person who is a good hand fighter with receivers who specializes in press coverage. His game appears built toward keeping the play and the receiver in front of him and this works well for run support.

 

In addition, we saw the defender who benefited most in terms of recognition from the switch to the Cover 2 was Aaron Schobel. In the LeBeau/Gray zone blitz he had actually lost a few pounds to increase his speed and agility as our DEs were quite often required to peel off into short (and even medium) zone coverage as the zone blitz would bring theoretically surprising blitzes from multiple LBs. Schobel actually did quite well at this IMHO, but ended up losing what appeared to be as much as 1/4 of the sack opportunities a DE might normally get as he was pass covering rather than blitzing on a lot of passing downs.

 

With the Cover 2, the DE was called upon to simply rush alot more and with more chances for Schobel came more sacks and had him among league sack leaders and got him a Pro Bowl start.

 

However, the elimination for the most part of pass coverage duty does not mean that all our DE should be is a one trick pony you simply wind up and send after the passer. With the DTs focusing on penetrating so much it becomes more critical for the DEs to make good reads and pinch toward the middle if need be to shore up the run. As described aove the CB has important run support duty in the Cover 2 on outside runs, but one of the first jobs on these runs is for the DE to make sure he is not sealed off to the inside by a blocking tackle or by the TE as this will be the first determinant of whether in fact the RB successfully gets outside. A good DE is aware of the play and where folks seem to be going so that he either provide support inside at the LOS if the DT has left the spot unoccupied trying to penetrate or to make sure his rush moves straight upfield in a manner which cuts off the outside run.

 

The LBs need to make tackles.

 

That's why having fast LBs is important to catch RBs from turing the corner.

 

Pos is too slow for this scheme- Wills is not.

[tennesseeboy]

Look at the cover 2 on paper and in theory all you want. Bottom line is OUR cover 2 was 28th in the league in stopping the run last year...and Ellison and Crowell got significan playing time. Our defensive "theories" and 56 cents will get you coffee at Mickey D's if you're a senior citizen. We had better get a run stopper who can also play the cover 2. Okoye is the guy who can do that. Alternatively (or if we have lots of faith in the existing DT's) we should get Willis or maybe Beason who are proven run stopping LB's. If a team has a choice, they'll run on you all day. You don't stop the run between the tackles, Nate Clements, Robert James, and every defensive back in the football hall of fame, and every "cover" scheme in the world become irrelevant.

[marauderswr80]

With this defense its all about speed to disrupt the play to make the offense reverse the field and thats when our speed takes over and kills teams.

 

I think if the DL can disrupt the RB, our LB's will be all over him.

 

This defense is about speed not size.

[stuckincincy]

This defense is about speed not size.

 

All Hail the Flying Duckpins !!!!!

[Paup 1995MVP]

With the 8 roster spots on the defensive line now determined, I still don't see how we can stuff the run. Walker is a penetrator and plays the same position as Triplett. Williams and Mcgargo are not run pluggers.

 

 

Understand that our run defense will not be great. It doesn't have to be. It just has to be decent for the team to succeed. Remember this will be year two in the same system so there has to be some degree of improvement based on the familiarity with the system both by the players and the coaches. And adding Walker means we will not have to play Tim Anderson which is a big boost in and of itself. If McCargo can stay healthy and Triplett plays like he did with Indy, our D-line can be above average against the run.

 

In addition, our linebacking will hopefully be better against the run as well. And don't forget that if the offense puts more points on the board, it will force the opposing teams offense to throw the ball more since they will hopefully be playing from behind a whole lot more.

[BUFFALOTONE]

I think people are going to be surprised with the play of Kyle Williams after he gets a full off-season training.

 

I agree. I think KW will be a force in the middle this year. If he can get up to 305-310 that would be a good weigh for him. We know he can move. He needs to start taking up 2 blockers so Pat Wills can roam free.

[Pyrite Gal]

The LBs need to make tackles.

 

That's why having fast LBs is important to catch RBs from turing the corner.

 

Pos is too slow for this scheme- Wills is not.

 

Whatever the coaches think in terms of really having had the chance to talk to each player and measure them as people is fine by me actually, as we outsiders can certainly weigh the workout stats and have our unprofessional opinions about which player is better or worse. We can easily be right or wrong as we are missing the essential component of really having talked to and taken the measure of these men.

 

We also do not have a true idea of what the plans are for team building from the braintrust and this variable of what other deals seem likely makes a huge difference in whether a draft pick is a good choice or not.

 

While, there is no guarantee that any choices by the braintrust are gonna be correct, one thing that they clearly earned last year when virtually all the draft picks contributed to a team which improved in the only stat that really matters, W/L, has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

We are certainly all entitled to our opinions whether fact free or informed by reams of data.

 

If the team thinks Poz can do the job, fine by me. It seems likely that if any rookie is slated to be our starting MLB next season will likely be painful while this rookie learns to be a vet. I have a lot of confidence in a rookie who is a top 10 pick hitting the ground running immediately. However, anyone available at #12 begins to get pretty dicey as an immediate starter (it can easily happen it will just be dicey).

 

As far as Willis, I think he is probably a reasonable choice (despite his pass coverage struggles in the Senior Bowl) but probably only if we fill he can do the job at SLB which does not call for the vet level reads and diversity of play required of an MLB in the Cover 2.

 

SF may be enamored with him and we would have to trade up to get him, but they easily could be blowing smoke in order to scare the Bills into trading up for him. We also have too many needs for me to see us spending more resources for one player when the draft actually is still a crap shoot in reality.

 

In fact, if SF is in fact blowing smoke, it may well be possible to trade down and still get Willis or Poz.

 

We likely risk a lot more in trading up than in holding or trading down.

 

The likely payoff even if he turns out to be a very good rookie is not high enough to make this a good move.

[tennesseeboy]

trading down is a real possibility. I think Okoye or Peterson are locks if available at 12. Willis seems like an okay choice, but I think Beason is as good a choice as Pos, and kind of like the other linebacker from Penn as well for somewhere in the second. There are good bargains in lower first and second rounds at running back (Irons, Pittman and few others). Again, I am not a little surprised at the personnel moves but as Pyrite says...ML and DJ have a hell of a lot more contact with the players, their physical condition and their upside going into next year.

[BillsVet]

Look at the cover 2 on paper and in theory all you want. Bottom line is OUR cover 2 was 28th in the league in stopping the run last year...and Ellison and Crowell got significan playing time. Our defensive "theories" and 56 cents will get you coffee at Mickey D's if you're a senior citizen. We had better get a run stopper who can also play the cover 2. Okoye is the guy who can do that. Alternatively (or if we have lots of faith in the existing DT's) we should get Willis or maybe Beason who are proven run stopping LB's. If a team has a choice, they'll run on you all day. You don't stop the run between the tackles, Nate Clements, Robert James, and every defensive back in the football hall of fame, and every "cover" scheme in the world become irrelevant.

 

That, in a few sentences, says it all about the Cover-2 and what Buffalo has.

 

Understand that our run defense will not be great. It doesn't have to be. It just has to be decent for the team to succeed. Remember this will be year two in the same system so there has to be some degree of improvement based on the familiarity with the system both by the players and the coaches. And adding Walker means we will not have to play Tim Anderson which is a big boost in and of itself. If McCargo can stay healthy and Triplett plays like he did with Indy, our D-line can be above average against the run.

 

In addition, our linebacking will hopefully be better against the run as well. And don't forget that if the offense puts more points on the board, it will force the opposing teams offense to throw the ball more since they will hopefully be playing from behind a whole lot more.

 

No, you don't need a great run defense. But when the opposing team averages 140+ ypg against your defense, something is wrong. Sure, the Cover-2 excells by forcing QB's to throw into that zone, but the means to defeat the Cover-2 remains to run the ball. Not allowing the CB's, LB's, and the S's to drop into their zones is the key. And Buffalo was run over like a pair of railroad tracks.

 

Indy is always cited as the best example. The Bills didn't have the ability to tighten their belts when it mattered most. Indy did in the playoffs against LJ, and later Chicago. I don't know what they did, but Buffalo didn't have the personnel last season, and outside of Darwin Walker, have added no one capable of making a huge difference this year. That's why I think Amobi Okoye is the answer. Sure, he's a DT, but he's got more upside than Kyle Williams will ever have. You can't teach talent or speed. Okoye wins everytime.

 

Some people fall in love with certain players and cannot admit that there's someone available who's better. Amobi Okoye will be the answer in the Cover-2. And he will allow Crowell and Pervis to make stops. DJ is a defense first, second, and third coach. He wants defense to win games, not offense. IMO, he instructed Fairchild to modify the offense and take less risks. Hence, the Indy game and not going to the endzone at all. We just didn't have enough defense that game.