Midwest Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I was reading the thread that discusses if the Bills would possibly pass on Peterson if he were there at twelve in favor of Posluszny, and I noticed that the discussion then degenerated into a Peterson vs. Willis argument. First of all, I've heard no rebuttals that suggest that quite possibly Willis won't even be there. He and Okoye are two of the exponential risers in the draft and San Francisco's coaches worked with him at the Senior Bowl and allegedly became enamored with him (not to mention that San Francisco's current inside linebackers in their 3-4 are Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). Regardless, even if San Francisco chose Adam Carriker, there was a report on NFL Sirius Radio (I don't know if it has legitimacy) that said that the Lions, when/if they are able to trade down, would take Willis which whatever pick they would end up with; the report actually linked the Falcons, so the Lions, who are very desperate for a MLB, and who missed out on Fletcher in the off-season and started Paris Lenon (who?) last year, would take Willis at #8. And that isn't too high for him: he was not only the Butkus winner and 1st-team All-American last year; we all know his exceptional Combine and even better pro-day. I've also heard that Minnesota and Miami have so interest, for whatever that's worth as well. I think that realistically the question for us at #12 comes down to Lynch or Posluszny (or Peterson; believe it or not, I think that Peterson could stand as good of a chance of falling to our pick as Willis or Okoye- Okoye has too many potential suitors: Washington, Atlanta, Miami, and Houston. But realistically, none of them fall). I hope that we would choose Lynch in such a scenario for the superior value he offers. I also believe that the separation between Peterson and Lynch and the other running backs (Antonio Pittman, Kenny Irons, Tony Hunt, Chris Henry, etc., etc.) is more substantial than the separation between Posluszny, Timmons, and Beason and the other outside linebackers (Justin Durant, Stewart Bradley, Tim Shaw, Rufus Alexander, etc., etc.).
obie_wan Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I was reading the thread that discusses if the Bills would possibly pass on Peterson if he were there at twelve in favor of Posluszny, and I noticed that the discussion then degenerated into a Peterson vs. Willis argument. First of all, I've heard no rebuttals that suggest that quite possibly Willis won't even be there. He and Okoye are two of the exponential risers in the draft and San Francisco's coaches worked with him at the Senior Bowl and allegedly became enamored with him (not to mention that San Francisco's current inside linebackers in their 3-4 are Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). Regardless, even if San Francisco chose Adam Carriker, there was a report on NFL Sirius Radio (I don't know if it has legitimacy) that said that the Lions, when/if they are able to trade down, would take Willis which whatever pick they would end up with; the report actually linked the Falcons, so the Lions, who are very desperate for a MLB, and who missed out on Fletcher in the off-season and started Paris Lenon (who?) last year, would take Willis at #8. And that isn't too high for him: he was not only the Butkus winner and 1st-team All-American last year; we all know his exceptional Combine and even better pro-day. I've also heard that Minnesota and Miami have so interest, for whatever that's worth as well. I think that realistically the question for us at #12 comes down to Lynch or Posluszny (or Peterson; believe it or not, I think that Peterson could stand as good of a chance of falling to our pick as Willis or Okoye- Okoye has too many potential suitors: Washington, Atlanta, Miami, and Houston. But realistically, none of them fall). I hope that we would choose Lynch in such a scenario for the superior value he offers. I also believe that the separation between Peterson and Lynch and the other running backs (Antonio Pittman, Kenny Irons, Tony Hunt, Chris Henry, etc., etc.) is more substantial than the separation between Posluszny, Timmons, and Beason and the other outside linebackers (Justin Durant, Stewart Bradley, Tim Shaw, Rufus Alexander, etc., etc.). we need a real MLB- there 's a good chance that one of teh 2nd tier LBs will fall to the Bills in round 2. Bills top priority will be to draft Willis.
Bill from NYC Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 No replies whatsoever? My reply is that if the top players of need are gone, trade down and stockpile first day picks for this season and 08.
Bill from NYC Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I think we'll take Poluszny anyways Not the it means much, but here is a mock that shows Poluszny going 51st to the Giants.
CosmicBills Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I really don't see the Bills taking Polz at 12. If he is their man of choice, then they will trade back to get him. There is no reason to take him at 12 when he could be there as late as 25. So I'm with Bill here. If Willis, Peterson, Okoye are all gone (as I suspect they will be) at 12, then move back and take Polz/Timmons/Hall/CB and grab an extra pick. Of course, if there are no willing trade partners, I still don't advocate reaching for Polz at 12. But that's me.
DrDawkinstein Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I really don't see the Bills taking Polz at 12. If he is their man of choice, then they will trade back to get him. There is no reason to take him at 12 when he could be there as late as 25. So I'm with Bill here. If Willis, Peterson, Okoye are all gone (as I suspect they will be) at 12, then move back and take Polz/Timmons/Hall/CB and grab an extra pick. Of course, if there are no willing trade partners, I still don't advocate reaching for Polz at 12. But that's me. completely disagree. if Willis/Okoye/Peterson are all gone by 12 then we HAVE to grab Puz(or whoever "our guy" is) there because if those guys are already off the board, that means Puz is next. if we trade down we risk losing ANOTHER guy, and can really get stuck out on a limb if we are sitting at 18 and Willis/Okoye/Puz/and probably at least one CB are gone... remember, just a couple weeks ago people had Willis going in the LATE 1st. now hes a possible top-10 pick. same argument can be made for ANYONE in the draft.
Bill from NYC Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 I really don't see the Bills taking Polz at 12. If he is their man of choice, then they will trade back to get him. There is no reason to take him at 12 when he could be there as late as 25. So I'm with Bill here. If Willis, Peterson, Okoye are all gone (as I suspect they will be) at 12, then move back and take Polz/Timmons/Hall/CB and grab an extra pick. Of course, if there are no willing trade partners, I still don't advocate reaching for Polz at 12. But that's me. It is little more than a hunch, but I think that there will be offers galore for the #12 and that they will be better than the customary "chart." Again, this is a hunch, but a very strong one.
DrDawkinstein Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 It is little more than a hunch, but I think that there will be offers galore for the #12 and that they will be better than the customary "chart." Again, this is a hunch, but a very strong one. if Peterson/Willis/Okoye are all gone, who are they(other teams) trading up to get?
CosmicBills Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 completely disagree. if Willis/Okoye/Peterson are all gone by 12 then we HAVE to grab Puz(or whoever "our guy" is) there because if those guys are already off the board, that means Puz is next. if we trade down we risk losing ANOTHER guy, and can really get stuck out on a limb if we are sitting at 18 and Willis/Okoye/Puz/and probably at least one CB are gone... remember, just a couple weeks ago people had Willis going in the LATE 1st. now hes a possible top-10 pick. same argument can be made for ANYONE in the draft. All good points -- but Polz isn't Willis. I am not even sure he is the third best LB in the draft. He seems to be a guy TSW has become enamored with over the past few weeks while in reality, he isn't seen as that hot a commodity by the Bills or other NFL teams. Depending on which reports you read, you get a history of injuries and questions about his durability and athleticism, or you get reports saying he has more heart than skill. No reports I've read (and that isn't saying much, I know) has had any glowing praise of the guy as an immediate impact player. Willis, Okoye and the like all have mixed reports too -- but the "high" reports are glowing whereas Polz's "high" reports are just a simmer. I really don't think the Bills will target Polz at 12 no matter what transpires in the first 11 picks. It's just too high to take him. People will argue, "they reached for Dante and took him higher than he should have gone" which isn't really a fair point since teams two spots below the Bills were going to snag Dante if the Bills passed. I really don't see St. Louis, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Greenbay, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, or Tennessee are in the market for a LB -- so there is a lot of wiggle room for the Bills to move back and still grab him before the Giants do. But then again, this is just my opinion based on the scouting notes and reports from the league. I only saw a few of Polz games. I'm certainly no expert. I just have a feeling that he isn't as hot as people on the Wall think he is.
Bill from NYC Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 if Peterson/Willis/Okoye are all gone, who are they(other teams) trading up to get? Players at individual positions that they couldn't get because of an incredibly weak class of free agents. I mean who were the top 4 UFAs, a Cornerback and 3 Guards? Most of the better players were locked up by their old teams. Trades are rare in the NFL because they are usually accompanied by cap issues. The draft will become even more important in terms of building a football team, at least in the short term.
obie_wan Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 completely disagree. if Willis/Okoye/Peterson are all gone by 12 then we HAVE to grab Puz(or whoever "our guy" is) there because if those guys are already off the board, that means Puz is next. if we trade down we risk losing ANOTHER guy, and can really get stuck out on a limb if we are sitting at 18 and Willis/Okoye/Puz/and probably at least one CB are gone... remember, just a couple weeks ago people had Willis going in the LATE 1st. now hes a possible top-10 pick. same argument can be made for ANYONE in the draft. how about Adam Carriker, then. there is no way they take Poz at #12. they can wait until the 2nd round for him. My gut is they get Willis but have to give up 100 points to move to #10 to do it. They have shown a strong propensity to target their guys and then go get them even if against cnventional wisdom./
DrDawkinstein Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 how about Adam Carriker, then. there is no way they take Poz at #12. they can wait until the 2nd round for him. My gut is they get Willis but have to give up 100 points to move to #10 to do it. They have shown a strong propensity to target their guys and then go get them even if against cnventional wisdom./ says who? your "value charts"?
sarmanuscg07 Posted March 26, 2007 Posted March 26, 2007 Not the it means much, but here is a mock that shows Poluszny going 51st to the Giants. yea whoever did this mock draft.... coo coo they have buster davis going at 82 the second/third best TE in the draft Ben Patrick going at 116 brandon jackson at pick 149?
Midwest Posted March 26, 2007 Author Posted March 26, 2007 I really don't see the Bills taking Polz at 12. If he is their man of choice, then they will trade back to get him. There is no reason to take him at 12 when he could be there as late as 25. So I'm with Bill here. If Willis, Peterson, Okoye are all gone (as I suspect they will be) at 12, then move back and take Polz/Timmons/Hall/CB and grab an extra pick. Of course, if there are no willing trade partners, I still don't advocate reaching for Polz at 12. But that's me. I would suggest that we draft Lynch at twelve, personally. I love his vision, his toughness and size in between the tackles to as well as his quickness around the corner, speed that makes him an authentic homerun threat who can outrun DB's, his competent hands as a receiver, and the exuberance and extrovertedness that make the linemen love to block for him. But if my feelings about the Cal running back aren't shared, I would rather trade down, like you recommended. Thanks for your thoughts, fellas!
Recommended Posts