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This is the most rational draft analysis i've seen


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Good analysis of the Bills and a good overall analysis

 

but i think he needs to work on the details (or maybe changed his mind about a pick and forgot to cascade it down)...

at #9 he has Miami taking Okoye

at #11 he has SF taking Carriker and mulling over why they would take Carriker over Okoye (who was off the board) <_<

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I would rather have the combination of Marshawn Lynch and David Harris.

 

Willis is an excellent prospect, but like most of the 2nd tier RBs, I worry that Irons is nothing more than a good change of pace RB in the NFL due to his size.

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Very good draft! I agreed with everything up to Minnesota taking Peterson. They have Chester Taylor as their stud running back. They need a WR and a TE in the worst way. Ted Ginn at #7 is too early...and Greg Olsen at #7 is too early. They may be in a pickle and have to "overdraft" if no one is willing to trade picks with them!

 

In this scenario it is a VERY real possibility that Peterson falls to us at #12 if Cleveland passes on him. I am really starting to believe that there is a 50-50 chance that he falls to us! Just last month I would have said that there is about a 2% chance.

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I see the Texans taking Peterson now that Davis is released

The Texans just signed Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. Add them to Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado. No way they take another running back to add to that mix. You'll have way too much money locked into one position.

 

Houston needs offensive line help in the worst way.

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The Texans just signed Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. Add them to Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado. No way they take another running back to add to that mix. You'll have way too much money locked into one position.

 

Houston needs offensive line help in the worst way.

That and the organization is very high on Wali Lundy's potential. Green was brought in to groom Lundy apparently. I don't see them drafting AP when, as you stated, they have much more pressing needs on the line.

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Kenny Irons in the 2nd is poor value imo. He's worth a 3rd at best. I know he's an injury risk but with michael bush being out needing more surgery I'd spend our late 3rd on him while using our other 3 picks to pick bpa on defense, then take bush assuming he's still around with the ravens 3rd rd pick, and who knows he could end up being this years version of Frank Gore. Unless AP falls to us at 12 that's the only rb worthy of top 15 status.

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yeah, Irons scares me a bit because he's so light. I'd rather have a Pittman or Jackson in the 2nd or 3rd

 

I agree and if the Bills wait to select a RB, Jackson and Pittman would be among my choices. Suprisingly, so would Irons. That's really the problem with these 2nd tier RBs this year. There are a lot of good change-of-pace, 3rd down types, but there's not much to choose from otherwise.

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I agree and if the Bills wait to select a RB, Jackson and Pittman would be among my choices. Suprisingly, so would Irons. That's really the problem with these 2nd tier RBs this year. There are a lot of good change-of-pace, 3rd down types, but there's not much to choose from otherwise.

If you look at a two year process, a third down back makes sense. If you fill holes on the defensive side this year and take a 3rd down back with lots of speed, next year you can grab a top rb with a top pick and have a nice 1-2 combo. I think you have to fill areas on the first day keeping in mind where this class is deep, including a WR.

 

Let's get some quality players on defense again lb/cb/1 tech DT on the first day. Then look for a 3rd down back and a lb project on the second because we have enough lb depth but not enough quality. Hopefully with the other first day pick someone will fall to us that is good value, just about any position other than DE.

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If you look at a two year process, a third down back makes sense. If you fill holes on the defensive side this year and take a 3rd down back with lots of speed, next year you can grab a top rb with a top pick and have a nice 1-2 combo. I think you have to fill areas on the first day keeping in mind where this class is deep, including a WR.

 

Let's get some quality players on defense again lb/cb/1 tech DT on the first day. Then look for a 3rd down back and a lb project on the second because we have enough lb depth but not enough quality. Hopefully with the other first day pick someone will fall to us that is good value, just about any position other than DE.

 

On paper, it may look like a good idea, but in practice I think its problematic. The old saying of 'don't count your chickens before they hatch' applies. Yes, the RB class in 2008 looks good (IMO, not quite as good as some believe), but its a good bet that among the top junior and senior prospects, one or two won't declare, a couple will have bad seasons, and one will blow out a knee. The point is, that 2008 draft class could also look like absolute crap by this time next year.

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On paper, it may look like a good idea, but in practice I think its problematic. The old saying of 'don't count your chickens before they hatch' applies. Yes, the RB class in 2008 looks good (IMO, not quite as good as some believe), but its a good bet that among the top junior and senior prospects, one or two won't declare, a couple will have bad seasons, and one will blow out a knee. The point is, that 2008 draft class could also look like absolute crap by this time next year.

Sure, anything can happen. I just don't want to take a rb with the first pick because we "need" one. There are options out there even this year, and I think a FA rb and a draft speedster will mesh fine with what we have now. I guess my point is I don't see many FA's out there for other positions, and I would rather hold off on spending the high pick on a rb this year if possible. Even if next years class sucks, OBD could work something like a trade or FA pickup. I also think the team would come together better in 2008 because generally the rb can step in quickly and I would rather have a year of experience for a presumably better lb/cb/dt. So you would have more players on a better learning curve for 2008 and I don't think it would cost too much for 2007.

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I agree that the Bills should not take a 1st round RB just out of need, but by the same token, they also should not take a 1st round LB, DT or CB out of pure need, either. It comes down to not only the grades of the players available in R1, but also the players likely to be available in the following rounds as well.

 

In my opinion, the Bills are better off coming away with a very good RB prospect and a good MLB prospect than they are an excellent MLB and an average RB. This is ultimately why I would go with the Lynch/Harris combination. It sacrificies somewhat at MLB, but I believe yields a much better RB prospect and that both should develop into, at the very least, solid every-down players. I don't think we'll get that every-down RB otherwise. Your mileage, and your opinions of the particular players, may vary.

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The Texans just signed Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. Add them to Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado. No way they take another running back to add to that mix. You'll have way too much money locked into one position.

 

Houston needs offensive line help in the worst way.

 

Why slight Ahman Green by associating his name with supreme underachievers like that little tubby Badger that has rested on his laurels for an eon or two?

 

(Re: Texans. Talk about one gucked up organization. Sheesh!)

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Good point, I'm sure Houston regrets not getting some Bush last year. Like you said, it comes down to what OBD thinks of the players that are available in the draft and I understand that you are saying about players available later. Including that the drop between Lynch and Bush/Hunt/Irons seems to be steeper than the drop from Willis/Harris or whoever. Not to mention the difference between the our current players and the draftees. I would love to sit a room with the Bills to hear how they're ranking these players.

 

From what I have heard about this defense, the MLB is a coveted player and highly sought after. If OBD thinks Willis can be a difference maker, I would value him over Lynch even if they think Lynch can be a quality every down back. In the end, they'll probably both be there but end up going with Levi Brown or Darelle Revis. <_<

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Kenny Irons in the 2nd is poor value imo. He's worth a 3rd at best. I know he's an injury risk but with michael bush being out needing more surgery I'd spend our late 3rd on him while using our other 3 picks to pick bpa on defense, then take bush assuming he's still around with the ravens 3rd rd pick, and who knows he could end up being this years version of Frank Gore. Unless AP falls to us at 12 that's the only rb worthy of top 15 status.
Have you ever even seen Kenny Irons play? If you had you would know he is well worth a 2, I promise you he will be gone before round 3.
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Willis is right there with Peterson as my choice at #12, so I don't have a problem with that. I think #44 is a high for Irons, and represents a reach based on need, which I am never in favor of. I haven't seen him play, so am going by only the draft info I read, but I obviously would much rather pick up Michael Turner with our #44.

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Have you ever even seen Kenny Irons play? If you had you would know he is well worth a 2, I promise you he will be gone before round 3.

 

yes Ive seen kenny irons play. He's limited in the passing game, or at best doesn't have much experience as a receiving back not very fast but he is a good change of direction runner who runs with authority. The only reason hed be a 2nd rd pick this year is due to the overall weak rb class. I'd just as soon draft lorenzo booker and sit on a rbbc for this season and draft a back next year in what is slated to be a much better rb class.

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