Youbouty versus a 1st round drafted CB

[Pyrite Gal]

Its interesting to see some folks advocating that we draft a CB in the 1st round and generally arguing against the concept of Youbouty being a viable option to start as a reason for doing this.

 

I find this amusing as IMHO this continues to over-emphasis and expectations that do not correspond to reality which many avid fans have regarding the NFL draft.

 

TD (who demonstrated that it is far from a bad idea to question what he says) once said that 50% of players drafted in the 1st round end up being busts (he actually offered this well before it was clear that Mike Williams was a bust). Though TD is certainly a questionable source, as best as I can tell this statement of the facts has essentially not been refuted with a complete statistical analysis of the past.

 

I can see why this has not been done because though one could actually figure out a statistical analysis of drafted player success that is valid. Even using objective measurables like how many 1st rounders became starters would be a laborious process to calculate for the several years of data necessary to make this finding a depiction of trends rather than a simple snapshot of 1 year.

 

Further, though one might assess a measurable standard like did a player start or not, when one gets into subjective standards of whether a player was a "bust" or a "disappointment" the calculation gets a bit questionable.

 

My sense is that TD is actually exaggerating IMHO if the claim is that 50% of 1st rounders are busts. I think this claim does not hold water as many folks draw conclusions about players prematurely (I don't think that anyone can reasonably claim Whitner or even McCargo were mistaken picks at this early point in their career).

 

Further the assessment of many fans probably is a more legitimate comment on the fan and unreasonable fan expectations than on the quality of the player. it simply strikes me as silly that anyone can declare Whitner a failed pick (first one year is way too early to declare a failure of a pick) as actually he not only started immediately for the Bills and won an NFL rookie of the month designation, but his total stats are not simply comparable to the other safeties taken but in fact are demonstrably better than the other safeties taken in the first two rounds (including Huff who was drafted higher).

 

Overall, my sense is that simply because a player does not start immediately (or even in his first two years) or even if he disappoints some folks (they likely were disappointed in part because they had foolish expectations) it is not realistic to call such a player a bust.

 

Afterall, if one gets bent out of shape by two years of non-productive stats, then one would have to call Eric Moulds a bust. This Pro Bowler was sometimes vexing and deserved to be jettisoned by the Bills when he was but there is no way he can be reasonably called a bust.

 

However, though I think it is exaggerating to call 50% of 1st round choices busts, i think the sins against reality on the other side of equation are probably even larger. The conventional wisdom seems to be that a 1st round choice must be a starter after a year of play or he is a failed pick. If this is true, then folks also should acknowledge that it does approach about 50/50 that a team is going to make a failed choice with their first rounder.

 

Though I did not make the effort to look at a decade or so worth of drafts to confirm this thought. i did take a look at the results achieved by last year's 1st round choices by taking a look at the team's current depth chart to see whether the draftee is on there as a starter. Given that last year was generally viewed as a strong year for talent, i expected to see numbers well above 50% in terms of first rounders who were now #1 on a team's depth chart at their position. Actually of the 32 1st round choices the results were 18 starters and 14 back-ups,

 

To some extent this probably was an indicator of the depth of last year's draft as own Bills were able to find a credible starter (though inadequate in my view) at DT who was picked on the second day and this achievement balanced out the fact that one of the 14 back-ups was 1st round Bills choice McCargo. However, I think this outcome pointed to the fact that a player in some cases need not be a starter to be a good pick (the Pats Mulroney for example or even #2 pick Bush given the popularity of two RB schemes in the NFL and it probably is not simply this position as historically though Winfield was not a starter for us his rookie year no one would call his work as a nickel a failed pick by the Bills and these same opportunities likely can be found on the DL given the popularity of rotating players there).

 

In addition, part of the depth chart results likely says more about bad luck than the quality of the pick (unless a player like McCargo proves over time to be injury prone with a detectable pre-draft injury.

 

In general, i think folks tend to put both more emphasis on starting that they should because the important thing is to contribute rather than simply start and there are a lot of important other ways to contribute. and I think folks also put too much emphasis on the draft choices making the starting line-up quickly as many 1st round choices are good players who simply do not produce that outcome their rookie years.

 

Do teams find starters versus not with their 1st round picks? Yes.

 

But is this outcome such a certainty that a team or its GM are reasonably seen as football failures because their first round picks fail to make the starting line-up their rookies years.

 

Nope.

 

This is only true if a fan demands such perfection in judgment that the GM and braintrust must hit a homerun every time or they are simply fools.

 

Its good to hope for and root for perfection, but in the end it is simply to harsh and setting oneself up for disappointment to require that in order to be satisfied by your team.

 

This draft Kool-Aid is particularly seen for Bills purposes when one looks at some folks saying we desperately need a 1st round CB choice to replace Clements as they see it as unlikely or impossible that Youbouty can step into the slot.

 

1. This view ignores the time element that almost 50% of draft choices need before they are ready to start even if drafted in the 1st round. The fact is that the immediate starters are so heavily weighted to the top 10 picks that when your choice is #12 given that it looks like Leon Hall may be gone anyway, it simply is not a good chance that if the Bills pick up the other likely 1st rounders like Revis or Houston odds are these players will not start immediately and in fact may never start at all their rookie seasons (most of the players chosen after pick 10 did not even end the season as starters).

 

2. Odds are that Youbouty is more likely to be a starter than the #12 pick anyway. Folks have short memories. Youbouty was generally seen as a great get by the Bills last year as many had him going in the 1st round, He did not due to some reasons which were not direct comments on his play as an unexpected run on safties chosen in the first joined with the CBs rated a bit higher (only a small bit in the numeric rankings) than Youbouty simply left about a third of the teams already having spent a lot of draft resources on DBs which is part of why Youbouty got passed over in the second round as well as the 1st.

 

In fact, most observers felt that Youbouty was a 1st round talent who left school a year too early and that if he stayed and played as well his senior year as his junior year he likely would be the 1st or second CB chosen,

 

As it stands, Levy and Jauron were able to make the radical move of devoting 2 of 3 first day choices to the DBs as when one looks at what Youbouty does well (good hands and fighting ability for press coverage) his play lends itself to what we are looking for in a Cover 2 CB.

 

Quite frankly I think he is better off having his additional year of training and finishing as a Buffalo Bill with direct training by our coaches in our style than he would have gotten playing all the time for OSU.

 

The bottomline looks like to me that Youbouty is far more likely to be our #2 CB anyway than any rookie we could get in the 1st round would be.

[Mr. T]

You got "a LOT" of time on your hands!

 

It was interesting for the first 1500 words or so, after that it reads like a college final paper.

[LabattBlue]

cliff notes version...

 

"The bottomline looks like to me that Youbouty is far more likely to be our #2 CB anyway than any rookie we could get in the 1st round would be."

[The Senator]

Ok...I read the part that said, "It's interesting to see some folks advocating..." and the other part that said, "The bottomline looks to me that..."

 

Anyone care to summarize the rest?

[5 Wide]

I think I just witnessed a message board filibuster

[The Senator]

cliff notes version...

 

"The bottomline looks like to me that Youbouty is far more likely to be our #2 CB anyway than any rookie we could get in the 1st round would be."

Thanks!

[Mile High]

Ok...I read the part that said, "It's interesting to see some folks advocating..." and the other part that said, "The bottomline looks to me that..."

 

Anyone care to summarize the rest?

Odds are that Youbouty is more likely to be a starter than the #12 pick anyway. Folks have short memories. Youbouty was generally seen as a great get by the Bills last year as many had him going in the 1st round, He did not due to some reasons which were not direct comments on his play as an unexpected run on safties chosen in the first joined with the CBs rated a bit higher (only a small bit in the numeric rankings) than Youbouty simply left about a third of the teams already having spent a lot of draft resources on DBs which is part of why Youbouty got passed over in the second round as well as the 1st.

[apuszczalowski]

Youbouty is basically a 2007 draft pick. People who would say the Bills need to/are going to draft another CB early to replace Nate because youbouty is an unknown are not thinking straight. A draft pick CB is coming in with almost the same NFL experience as AY so both is an unknown. Having Youbouty ready for this season was like getting an extra pick in this years draft, they already have their CB in this draft, he was picked last year. No weither he can make us forget about Nate and make this defence better is a different question

[obie_wan]

Youbouty is basically a 2007 draft pick. People who would say the Bills need to/are going to draft another CB early to replace Nate because youbouty is an unknown are not thinking straight. A draft pick CB is coming in with almost the same NFL experience as AY so both is an unknown. Having Youbouty ready for this season was like getting an extra pick in this years draft, they already have their CB in this draft, he was picked last year. No weither he can make us forget about Nate and make this defence better is a different question

 

Youboty takes over for Clements.

 

Who takes over for McGee since he can't play zone in the cover-2?

 

Probably will see a CB drafted in round 3.

[Billsjunkie]

If we go defense it will be DT or LB.

Not even a chance we go corner. We had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

It wasn't just because of Nate either. Sure McGee had a couple rough games but Whitner and Simpson played very well back there and the Bills were #1 in not giving up the big pass play.

 

I think people forget how good we were against the pass. Not once did a passer go over 300 yards on us. Sure Clements was part of that. But not all. Terrence is fine.

[stuckincincy]

If we go defense it will be DT or LB.

Not even a chance we go corner. We had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

It wasn't just because of Nate either. Sure McGee had a couple rough games but Whitner and Simpson played very well back there and the Bills were #1 in not giving up the big pass play.

 

I think people forget how good we were against the pass. Not once did a passer go over 300 yards on us. Sure Clements was part of that. But not all. Terrence is fine.

 

If the opponent can run the ball down your throat, they don't bother passing much.

[apuszczalowski]

Youboty takes over for Clements.

 

Who takes over for McGee since he can't play zone in the cover-2?

 

Probably will see a CB drafted in round 3.

I'm guessing McGee since he's still on the roster. If he was so bad at playing zone in the cover 2, I'm sure he would not still be on the team

 

I think the team will give him another season to get used to the new system they put in place last year.

 

If not, they replace him with Thomas or Greer

[obie_wan]

I'm guessing McGee since he's still on the roster. If he was so bad at playing zone in the cover 2, I'm sure he would not still be on the team

 

I think the team will give him another season to get used to the new system they put in place last year.

 

If not, they replace him with Thomas or Greer

 

Since his play was so bad that they benched him, then changed the coverage away from zone, my conclusion is that they have serious concerns about his performance.

 

Tough to cut him and lose Clements in the same year.

 

However, it does make drafting a CB on day one a likely event.

[colin]

imo the true lowest risk pick is CB (i mean in general compared to other positions).

 

you get very few true busts at cb compared to all other positions.

 

jammer and newman were considered dissapointments but ended up as pretty solid cbs.

 

buchanan and smoot disapointed, but still performed pretty well, at least at times.

 

i don't want us to take a cb 1st by any means, but if we take 1 day one it prolly isn't the worst thing in the world.

 

if we can make up for clements loss we will have had an very outstanding offseason.

[Pyrite Gal]

Youboty takes over for Clements.

 

Who takes over for McGee since he can't play zone in the cover-2?

 

Probably will see a CB drafted in round 3.

Outside of the MLB who is called upon to both tackle like a DT and pass cover like a safety its my sense is that no position deserves the term "Hybrid" more in a Cover 2 than the CB.

 

Fundamentally on most plays the CB is as man-to-man as a player can be as he not only as specific cover duty on the WR to his side (even moreso the way the Bills switched to playing mid-season last year) the CB is running a press coverage right in the face of the WR to his side immediately.

 

One can call this immediate press a zone to the extent he is expected to cut off this coverage 10-15 yards off the LOS and release the WR to the safeties on fly patterns and to the MLB on post patterns and to mind the inside area for receivers coming underneath, but to this extent even the switch of NC to cover the best WR of the other team regardless of which side he lined up on still had McGee playing zone even after the switch.

 

McGee got much better at mastering the zone coverage in the second half of last season as the coaches simply reduced the distractions of multi-tasking his assignments as he did not have to devote much of his effort to simply keeping up with the best receiver.

 

I suspect that McGee will get better at doing the Cover 2 for several reasons:

 

1. He has had the experience of playing in it for a season and actually doing the job with much more success in the 2nd half of last season. It would be very hard for him to get faster or to jump higher, but the repetition, success, and practice of last season should clearly make him a lot better than he was when it was his first year running the scheme.

 

2. His multi-tasking assignment will be made easier as he will not have to watch out for two rookie safeties as much. The plays which got McGee deservedly benched last year were TDs by the other side where he seemed to simply fail to read how badly out of position his safeties were and then also to read that there was really little coverage need for him underneath. He needed to keep running with the WR on the fly pattern and did not do this in the first half of the season, but he did learn he needed to be aware of this the second half and go deep if he had no one coming underneath and also that the safety would likely be late. Mcgee should be able to make fewer mistakes and if he does a safety should be there to cover up.

 

3. The pass rush must and should improve. It is not a bad assumption and in fact is quite likely that Williams will get better in his second year we just do not know how good that will be for this youngster. It is not far-fetched at all that Triplett will improve in his second year as he is around his prime age though this is not guaranteed at all. It is also not rediculous to hope McCargo proves that the Bills assessment of him was bad and the repairing surgery performed on him this off-season makes sense that it will solve his problem, though the major threat to this pick is that he proves to have a consistent injury problem. If they were to pick up Okoye I am quite confident that the pass protection will be improved a lot by the DL rotation.

 

At any rate, there are several different options at least some of which should work out well for us in improving our pass protection even with the loss of a very good player in NC and the downgrade in talent to the unproven Youbouty or the proven second tier (or worse) CB play of Thomas.

 

The other interesting thing which should give a Bill fan some hope is that Youbouty has shown many of the talents useful in the press scheme of the Cover 2 and that he played well in his one start last year and adequately in his two other appearances though the Bills coaches were likely correct that we offered more with vets, Clements, McGee and Thomas at nickel than we did forcing Youbouty into the line-up as a rookie.

[LynchMob23]

I think that Greer may step up and become the number two, and supplant McGee. I know that sounds crazy, but I think his size and speed are what are necessary for a guy on the outside, and like Youboty he has played in the system.

 

As for the draft, drafting a 1st round CB isn't a necessity. Why should we do that when as it's been previously stated we have a first round-graded player who developed for a year in our system?

[Pyrite Gal]

I think that Greer may step up and become the number two, and supplant McGee. I know that sounds crazy, but I think his size and speed are what are necessary for a guy on the outside, and like Youboty he has played in the system.

 

As for the draft, drafting a 1st round CB isn't a necessity. Why should we do that when as it's been previously stated we have a first round-graded player who developed for a year in our system?

 

The only question I have about Greer is that during a couple of pre-seasons he has been nothing short of phenomenal jumping routes, showing some good run support and even going ho (Ultimate Frisbee talk for making a catch while being horizontal) for an INT against DET in a pre-season game a few years back. Yet he has just never translated this into regular season performance. Perhaps ultimately he knew he would never unseat NC, McGee or some of the more highly regarded folks ahead of him, but Greer has what likely will be his last chance to make room for himself with solid play. I hope it is the case but this fan will believe it when he sees it and until he proves it on the field Greer is a "dime" CB at best behind McGee, Youbouty and Thomas.

[MichFan]

Screw the pragmatist approach, I say give him a try. It would be great if he turned into a lockdown corner for us, and after every great play he makes they play "Shake you bouty, shake you bouty, yea, shake shake shake...shake, shake, shake... shake you booty" Now that's the kind of fun we need to get back to having at the Ralph.

[Koufax]

I don't think McGee gets anything handed to him, and I think he will have to battle KT, Greer, and a draft choice (hopefully just a third rounder, as I think #12 could be used more valuably) to be the #2 behind Youboty.

 

I don't view this as a bad thing. McGee has never been great in coverage, and having his legs more rested for kick returns is a positive.

 

Don't forget that we also have two safeties who weren't starters breaking camp but played all year who will have a season and an off season and a second camp under their belts. I think that we will get better play out of Ko and Dante in year 2, I think we will get worse play out of Youboty than Nate at #1 corner (but not as big a drop off as people expect), and I think we will get better play at #2 corner than McGee 2006 with the winner of the competition between KT, Greer, McGee and a 3rd round pick.

 

So I think that the sum total of our secondary will be BETTER than 2007 despite Nate's departure even without a #1 pick.

 

Just to clarify, I'm not handing Youboty the #1 corner spot. I just think it is an open competition that he will win easily like JP over Holcomb. I'm on record now saying I think Youboty and McCargo will both be good players if healthy, and next year we will feel silly for worrying so much. If you want a roster full of sure things go to the Bronx and visit Yankee stadium. Every NFL team has unknowns, and I'm very comfortable with Youboty as one of our unknowns we are expecting a lot from.

[Chilly]

McGee better damn well improve this year, or we've got a bunch of guys who are good nickel backs and not much else. (Youboty is an unknown quantity at this point - could be a starter but who the hell knows).