Be Careful what you wish for...

[Dr. Trooth]

FYI... The Bills have a horrible track record of drafting first round running backs...

 

Juice... OK... no problem... but it took him 3 years to get untracked.

Terry Miller... one season wonder.

Greg Bell... Average, but he didn't like running between the tackles.

Ronnie Harmon... Below average... and he didn't like running between the tackles. either.

Antowain Smith... he was supposed to make us forget Thermal... I still can't.

Willis McGahee... supposed to be the 2nd coming of juice. Someone made a miscalculation... he as the 2nd coming of Greg Bell.

 

That's a miserable track record. 1 for 6 since 69?

 

Three 2nd rounders fared better... Joe Cribbs, Thurman Thomas, & Travis Henry.

 

Moral of the story... draft smart. If you're going to use a 1st rd. pick on a RB, A) you better be a damn good team loaded with talent and can afford to be wrong, or B) You better be dead on right... especially if you're a rebuilding team, because if you're wrong, it will set you back 2-4 years.

[K-Gun10]

FYI... The Bills have a horrible track record of drafting first round running backs...

 

Juice... OK... no problem... but it took him 3 years to get untracked.

Terry Miller... one season wonder.

Greg Bell... Average, but he didn't like running between the tackles.

Ronnie Harmon... Below average... and he didn't like running between the tackles. either.

Antowain Smith... he was supposed to make us forget Thermal... I still can't.

Willis McGahee... supposed to be the 2nd coming of juice. Someone made a miscalculation... he as the 2nd coming of Greg Bell.

 

That's a miserable track record. 1 for 6 since 69?

 

Three 2nd rounders fared better... Joe Cribbs, Thurman Thomas, & Travis Henry.

 

Moral of the story... draft smart. If you're going to use a 1st rd. pick on a RB, A) you better be a damn good team loaded with talent and can afford to be wrong, or B) You better be dead on right... especially if you're a rebuilding team, because if you're wrong, it will set you back 2-4 years.

 

 

This is the same thing ive been saying about first round DT

[Max997]

FYI... The Bills have a horrible track record of drafting first round running backs...

 

Juice... OK... no problem... but it took him 3 years to get untracked.

Terry Miller... one season wonder.

Greg Bell... Average, but he didn't like running between the tackles.

Ronnie Harmon... Below average... and he didn't like running between the tackles. either.

Antowain Smith... he was supposed to make us forget Thermal... I still can't.

Willis McGahee... supposed to be the 2nd coming of juice. Someone made a miscalculation... he as the 2nd coming of Greg Bell.

 

That's a miserable track record. 1 for 6 since 69?

 

Three 2nd rounders fared better... Joe Cribbs, Thurman Thomas, & Travis Henry.

 

Moral of the story... draft smart. If you're going to use a 1st rd. pick on a RB, A) you better be a damn good team loaded with talent and can afford to be wrong, or B) You better be dead on right... especially if you're a rebuilding team, because if you're wrong, it will set you back 2-4 years.

 

 

A.Smith was not drafted to make any forget about Thurman Thomas

[1billsfan]

FYI... The Bills have a horrible track record of drafting first round running backs...

 

Juice... OK... no problem... but it took him 3 years to get untracked.

Terry Miller... one season wonder.

Greg Bell... Average, but he didn't like running between the tackles.

Ronnie Harmon... Below average... and he didn't like running between the tackles. either.

Antowain Smith... he was supposed to make us forget Thermal... I still can't.

Willis McGahee... supposed to be the 2nd coming of juice. Someone made a miscalculation... he as the 2nd coming of Greg Bell.

 

That's a miserable track record. 1 for 6 since 69?

 

Three 2nd rounders fared better... Joe Cribbs, Thurman Thomas, & Travis Henry.

 

Moral of the story... draft smart. If you're going to use a 1st rd. pick on a RB, A) you better be a damn good team loaded with talent and can afford to be wrong, or B) You better be dead on right... especially if you're a rebuilding team, because if you're wrong, it will set you back 2-4 years.

 

 

This is by far the weakest argument for why the Bills shouldn't draft Peterson or Lynch.

[K-Gun10]

rb first round yes dt no, all i gotta say is Maurice Jones Drew, Reggie Bush and Joesph Addai. last year rookie rbs. I WANT A PIECE OF THAT PIE.

[Brandon]

I don't really care about what happened 20 years ago or even 10. These are different players and this is a different scouting staff.

 

The McGahee pick is the only one with any relevance, and I tend to attribute it more toward Tom Donahoe trying to be cute rather than a failure of the scouting department.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

FYI... The Bills have a horrible track record of drafting first round running backs...

 

Juice... OK... no problem... but it took him 3 years to get untracked.

Terry Miller... one season wonder.

Greg Bell... Average, but he didn't like running between the tackles.

Ronnie Harmon... Below average... and he didn't like running between the tackles. either.

Antowain Smith... he was supposed to make us forget Thermal... I still can't.

Willis McGahee... supposed to be the 2nd coming of juice. Someone made a miscalculation... he as the 2nd coming of Greg Bell.

 

That's a miserable track record. 1 for 6 since 69?

 

Three 2nd rounders fared better... Joe Cribbs, Thurman Thomas, & Travis Henry.

 

Moral of the story... draft smart. If you're going to use a 1st rd. pick on a RB, A) you better be a damn good team loaded with talent and can afford to be wrong, or B) You better be dead on right... especially if you're a rebuilding team, because if you're wrong, it will set you back 2-4 years.

All the more easier to say we should take a Lb like Patrick Willis first.

[Albany,n.y.]

rb first round yes dt no, all i gotta say is Maurice Jones Drew, Reggie Bush and Joesph Addai. last year rookie rbs. I WANT A PIECE OF THAT PIE.

Drew was a 2nd rounder-pick 60 of the draft.

These guys have one thing in common-none of them was the starter on his team. Each split carries with the team's starter and none have proven that they can carry the bulk of the load, as is expected of a highly drafted back. Fred Taylor in Jacksonville, Deuce McCallister in New Orleans & (since departed) Dominick Rhodes in Indianapolis all split time with these 2006 rookies.

Of the 3, Bush would stand the best at being the main back, and Drew, because of his size, will never be a carry most of the load back.

[Albany,n.y.]

I don't really care about what happened 20 years ago or even 10. These are different players and this is a different scouting staff.

 

The McGahee pick is the only one with any relevance, and I tend to attribute it more toward Tom Donahoe trying to be cute rather than a failure of the scouting department.

In hindsight, all Donahoe had to do, if he wanted a back, was pick Larry Johnson. He always had to be the story.

[Kelly the Dog]

We can't pick Patrick Willis either because of Tom Ruud and Tom Cousineau. Shane Conlan was a #1 pick and was pretty good but still, we only have a 33% chance. And besides, Shane Conlan couldn't cover, so he's a bad pick, too, because 20 years later we're in a Cover 2. So basically, linebacker is out.

[1billsfan]

We can't pick Patrick Willis either because of Tom Ruud and Tom Cousineau. Shane Conlan was a #1 pick and was pretty good but still, we only have a 33% chance. And besides, Shane Conlan couldn't cover, so he's a bad pick, too, because 20 years later we're in a Cover 2. So basically, linebacker is out.

 

I was going to bring this up but I didn't want to burst their bubbles. Hey, wasn't Flowers supposed to be a defensive end? Well we can just forget Adams or Anderson then. It's a damn good thing we don't have to waste a pick on Levi "Mike Williams II" Brown. Who cares anyways, we're screwed.

[billybob]

Why doesn't someone tell me the position that is bust proof for the first round? QB bust - um Oline wait bust- DT bust bust bust, LB busty bust bust, WR whole lot of bust, CB bust , DE isn't Courtney Brown the greatest no he's a bust- Can anyone think of a safety or TE that was a total first round bust I can't off hand but I'm sure there was.

[Dr. Trooth]

This is by far the weakest argument for why the Bills shouldn't draft Peterson or Lynch.

 

Damn... I can't wait til you 2nd graders go back to school tomorrow.

 

Nowhere in my post did I say the Bills shouldn't draft a RB with their #1. I said... they 1) they have a miserable track record (fact) and 2) since they're not a very good team now, they better be right if they select a RB.

 

Here's another fact... the Bills have never drafted anything but busts with the 12th selection... at least since 67... the first year of the common draft. Twice they've drafted 12 and twice they got zeroes... Phil Dokes (only DT taken #1 by the Bills since the common draft) & Tony Hunter (only the 2nd TE selected by the Bills since the common draft... Reuben Gant the other).

 

Their safest choice by far is a DB or WR... except for James Williams & John Pitts, they have a decent record at drafting DBs in the first round. And, except for Perry Tuttle, they done very well at drafting 1st rd. receivers.

 

Add to this Ernie Davis in 62 (died of Leukemia), Mike Dennis in 66, Booker Moore (Barre-Gulaine disease) in 81 as RB s drafted in rd. 1 by the Bills... and you can see, overall the Bills are 1 for 10 drafting RBs in Rd. 1. So if the pull the trigger on a RB in round 1 the damn well better be right this time... because they've not done well.

[Kelly the Dog]

Damn... I can't wait til you 2nd graders go back to school tomorrow.

 

Nowhere in my post did I say the Bills shouldn't draft a RB with their #1. I said... they 1) they have a miserable track record (fact) and 2) since they're not a very good team now, they better be right if they select a RB.

 

Here's another fact... the Bills have never drafted anything but busts with the 12th selection... at least since 67... the first year of the common draft. Twice they've drafted 12 and twice they got zeroes... Phil Dokes (only DT taken #1 by the Bills since the common draft) & Tony Hunter (only the 2nd TE selected by the Bills since the common draft... Reuben Gant the other).

 

Their safest choice by far is a DB or WR... except for James Williams & John Pitts, they have a decent record at drafting DBs in the first round. And, except for Perry Tuttle, they done very well at drafting 1st rd. receivers.

 

Add to this Ernie Davis in 62 (died of Leukemia), Mike Dennis in 66, Booker Moore (Barre-Gulaine disease) in 81 as RB s drafted in rd. 1 by the Bills... and you can see, overall the Bills are 1 for 10 drafting RBs in Rd. 1. So if the pull the trigger on a RB in round 1 the damn well better be right this time... because they've not done well.

How, outside of complete coincidence, does who they drafted and when have anything remotely to do with how good or bad a player we draft this year is. It's the equivalent of flipping two heads in a row and then thinking there is a much better chance of flipping a heads on the third try because you just had two.

[1billsfan]

Damn... I can't wait til you 2nd graders go back to school tomorrow.

 

Nowhere in my post did I say the Bills shouldn't draft a RB with their #1. I said... they 1) they have a miserable track record (fact) and 2) since they're not a very good team now, they better be right if they select a RB.

 

So if the pull the trigger on a RB in round 1 the damn well better be right this time... because they've not done well.

 

1. Your fact is more of a fallacy. Their track record is a mixed bag (certainly not miserable). OJ was an all time great, A. Smith was an average back that helped the Bills get into their last playoff appearance who would have been the MVP were it not for a last second miracle play, McGahee was also an average back who's been the only bright spot in our offense until JP and Evans surpassed his level of play mid season of 2006. Greg Bell was a decent back too. The other two can be seen as miserable. All of which has absolutely NO EFFECT on the potential careers of Peterson or Lynch as Buffalo Bill starting tailbacks.

 

2. How do you know they're not a very good team? They've improved their offensive line, JP and Lee Evans had started to send shockwaves to opposing secondaries which by all indications will continue in 2007, all of those rookies that played so well will be in their second year having 16 games worth of experience.

 

There aren't any guarantees in the draft. Just as you warn poor old Marv that he'd better be right if he's drafting either Peterson or Lynch, he also has to be right if he's passing on them. Because you're assuming whoever we do pick will have a better chance at having a bigger impact on the Bills. If Peterson or Lynch were to light the league on fire in 2007 then the Bills would have a different track record regarding 1st round RBs. That of passing on Dillon, Johnson and either Peterson/Lynch (maybe even both). They'd also have a lot of ticked off fans wondering why they took (insert name of rookie LB, CB, DT) instead of that Peterson/Lynch running like crazy through NFL defenses.

 

Now remember, just because you're older than a second grader doesn't mean you're smarter than one.

[Kelly the Dog]

Let's see, the best two RB's in the league were #1 picks. The two Super Bowls teams this year started #1 picks at RB. Probably four of the top five RBs in the league are all #1 picks (LT, LJ, Alexander, Steven Jackson). So we should probably stay away from them because otherwise we might compete.

 

I'm not saying we should automatically pick a RB #1, although if Peterson is there we better take him, IMO. But to say we shouldn't take one just because of previous players taken is just ludicrous. Plus, there is a very good chance that every seventh #1 pick you take at RB is going to be fabulous. We had OJ and then six questionable ones. So any guy we take this year, as long as he's a #1, should be a potential hall of famer.

[Dr. Trooth]

Let's see, the best two RB's in the league were #1 picks. The two Super Bowls teams this year started #1 picks at RB. Probably four of the top five RBs in the league are all #1 picks

 

So, based on that, the Bills should draft a RB in Rd. 1???

 

Granted... it doesn't take a genius to realize the Bills are in need of help at CB, DT, LB, RB.

 

RB is probably the easiest postion to plug a rookie in as a starter. Fans may cut a rookie CB or DT 1st rd. pick some slack if they don't start or if they don't immediately produce. But not RB... if they are a first rounder... and especially so, if the team doesn't have an established starter... and A train would not be that, the expectations of a 1st Rd. running back would be enormous. A rookie RB 1st rounder would have to not just equal McGahee's production... he'd have to trump it. Whatever McGahee did for the Bills, wasn't enough, and there's more expected of that RB from the coaches. So, if the Bills draft a RB, then they better damn well be dead on right because the heat will be on from the people that matter... the paying customers. Is Peterson or Lynch the real deal? Or, are guys like Darby, Pittman, Irons, etc. going to bring as good, or, better results and value in rd. 2 or 3 or 4.

 

It comes down to who's available at #12 and the recognized immediate impact he can make... be it a LB, DT, CB, RB. If there's no one there to give the Bills bang for their buck... trade down, get extra picks, either for this draft or the next draft. And, if the Bills think Turner's the real deal, they might be able to get him for less than SD's advertised price... SD has to make a deal on or before draft day if they want to move Turner and get something of value in return. Otherwise, next year is a talent rich and deep draft for RBs... and that's counting only the seniors... not any underclassmaen that may declare.

 

I just don't think it's a slam dunk for Lynch or Peterson... even if they both are available at #12.

[Bob in STL]

All the more easier to say we should take a Lb like Patrick Willis first.

 

Great, now someone will name all the linebacker busts that we drafted since 1960.

[Koufax]

I agree with Trooth. I think Turner can be had for a lot less than the no-way-in-hell RFA price, and our 2nd rounder would probably get it done.

 

As to the we shouldn't because it hasn't worked well stuff, I don't think that the sample size is big enough or the situation similar enough. The problem with the McGahee pick was we got the wrong RB (LJ?).

 

We need to try to get the most valuable football player available taking into account 70% ability and 30% his position (not drafting need, but with our weakness at a number of positions drafting an O-Tackle or WR doesn't make sense unless he is without a doubt the best player available).

 

Here are the RBs who went #10-19 in the last 10 drafts (to remove the top-5 pick factor or the guys who end up closer to our #44 than our #12):

 

Nobody since 2002.

TJ Duckett, William Green, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander, Robert Edwards, Warrick Dunn.

 

Clearly a small group with some sketchy names compared to guys who slide to the 20-32 picks or guys who fall out of the top round. Since only two players are given a top 15 grade (Peterson and Lynch) I think our staff has to be very high on one of them to consider them at #12. I have Willis higher than either on my draft board right now because I think Willis will be a better player over the next five years than either (and not because of my opinion of Ellison starting is worse than A-Train starting). But if OBD decides that Peterson (probably not available) or Lynch is likely to be a better five year player than Willis, I'm fine with trusting that judgment. What we cannot do is get a less valuable player at #12 because we feel forced into it after the McGahee trade.

[Kelly the Dog]

So, based on that, the Bills should draft a RB in Rd. 1???

 

Granted... it doesn't take a genius to realize the Bills are in need of help at CB, DT, LB, RB.

 

RB is probably the easiest postion to plug a rookie in as a starter. Fans may cut a rookie CB or DT 1st rd. pick some slack if they don't start or if they don't immediately produce. But not RB... if they are a first rounder... and especially so, if the team doesn't have an established starter... and A train would not be that, the expectations of a 1st Rd. running back would be enormous. A rookie RB 1st rounder would have to not just equal McGahee's production... he'd have to trump it. Whatever McGahee did for the Bills, wasn't enough, and there's more expected of that RB from the coaches. So, if the Bills draft a RB, then they better damn well be dead on right because the heat will be on from the people that matter... the paying customers. Is Peterson or Lynch the real deal? Or, are guys like Darby, Pittman, Irons, etc. going to bring as good, or, better results and value in rd. 2 or 3 or 4.

 

It comes down to who's available at #12 and the recognized immediate impact he can make... be it a LB, DT, CB, RB. If there's no one there to give the Bills bang for their buck... trade down, get extra picks, either for this draft or the next draft. And, if the Bills think Turner's the real deal, they might be able to get him for less than SD's advertised price... SD has to make a deal on or before draft day if they want to move Turner and get something of value in return. Otherwise, next year is a talent rich and deep draft for RBs... and that's counting only the seniors... not any underclassmaen that may declare.

 

I just don't think it's a slam dunk for Lynch or Peterson... even if they both are available at #12.

My beef with your post was simply that what happened before with the Bills in first round backs has less than zero to do with how good or bad a #1 pick RB in this draft is. And I said in my response that you just replied to that I don't think we necessarily should take a RB number one. I imagine you read that.

 

We need a lot of help at at least four positions. But if Peterson is available and the Bills scouts have him rated a lot higher overall than a LB or DT that is available, they need to take him IMO, and they should. You're just as likely to find a good or bad LB in round 2 or 3 as a good or bad RB in round 2 or 3. And I don't think a draft of, say, Willis in the 1st and Irons in the 2nd is any better chance of being great than, say, Peterson and Jon Beason simply because RBs shouldnt be taken in the first because you can find them in the 2nd or 3rd. In fact, I think there's a better chance of Peterson being a true star than Willis.

 

And I have also been a public proponent of trying to trade a #2 for Turner, who has as good or better chance as any #2 or #3 pick because he has slightly proven it already. I also dont think there would be any greater pressure on a #1 RB than a #1 DT or LB or CB. That makes no sense to me.