GG Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 Like I said, try and do your ratings on a full 7 round draft over a period of years, then get back to me.Until then, your formula garbage (regardless of where you got it from) based on one round from one year is useless. Didn't you start this thread by talking about not only one but two picks in the first round?
coachhillenbrand Posted March 15, 2007 Author Posted March 15, 2007 Yup, what is your point?? Didn't you start this thread by talking about not only one but two picks in the first round?
MRW Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 Did not reverse. Bills obviously have a top flight No. 1 WR, so a high first round pick would be for the No. 2 position. That is an area of need, but not something that IMHO Bills should address at that slot. But, although Losman has made tremendous strides last year, it's far from certain that he will develop into an effective NFL QB. If Bills select Brady or Russell at that slot, it's a sure indication of what the coaches think of Losman's future. I think the fact that he was named the starter for this year at the end of last year is a sure indication of what the coaches think of his future. A WR pick would surprise me; a QB pick would make me seriously question the front office's judgement. If they're in a position where a QB is far and away the best player available, I would say it's time to consider a trade down.
nodnarb Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 Like I said, try and do your ratings on a full 7 round draft over a period of years, then get back to me.Until then, your formula garbage (regardless of where you got it from) based on one round from one year is useless. You still haven't found me a better in-depth resource analysis for a full 7 round draft then his yearly published and highly sought after blue book. By the way, almost 8,000 posts??? You're my hero!! Man, your reading comprehension is even worse than I thought. RE: "my formula": If you think 1 point for every correctly rounded player is a "formula", then I'll bet your 8th grade math teacher has some terrible memories. Kiper's "highly sought after" blue book is indeed a pretty good seller (in the small market of draft rags that is). The question is, who seeks it? Fans. Why? Cuz he's a well-known name. He's on ESPN. People there call him a genius 46 times per draft presentation. You won't find any NFL scouting staffs using his blue book to make decisions, that's for sure. Don't get me wrong. I like watching the ESPN draft broadcast and I even enjoy listening to Kiper. But I don't hold his analysis in very high regard. If you do, hey, fine. Fine if you like ham sandwiches, too. This all started because of the implicit creedence you gave to his comments about the Whitner pick, which were ridiculous then and remain so. Just like his claim that Bunkley was the right pick for the Bills and if not him, then Winston Justice. Whaddya know, Bunkley could barely get on the field, is already in the Eagles doghouse, and Justice fell to the 2nd round. I guess he was dead on about his Whitner comments though.
GG Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 Yup, what is your point?? Point being that he provided backup of first round accuracy, since your rant was about the first round.
GG Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 I think the fact that he was named the starter for this year at the end of last year is a sure indication of what the coaches think of his future. A WR pick would surprise me; a QB pick would make me seriously question the front office's judgement. If they're in a position where a QB is far and away the best player available, I would say it's time to consider a trade down. Yes, right now he's the No. 1 QB, but we're only a year away from serious questions about him and the team exploring other options. If Bills do take Quinn or Russell (highly unlikely) I would not question it that much, because it means that they feel Losman has peaked.
coachhillenbrand Posted March 15, 2007 Author Posted March 15, 2007 Um, sorry wrong again bro. I never mentioned Kiper and his comments about the Whitner pick, get your facts straight with who's posting what. All I said was that Whitner was a surprise pick at 8, whether it be mock draft analysts or Bills fans, everyone agrees they were shocked at that particular moment. You're still avoiding the point, give me some solid facts on a full 7 round draft over a period of years and then get back to me. You have the time based on your daily posts, get on it boy!! Man, your reading comprehension is even worse than I thought. RE: "my formula": If you think 1 point for every correctly rounded player is a "formula", then I'll bet your 8th grade math teacher has some terrible memories. Kiper's "highly sought after" blue book is indeed a pretty good seller (in the small market of draft rags that is). The question is, who seeks it? Fans. Why? Cuz he's a well-known name. He's on ESPN. People there call him a genius 46 times per draft presentation. You won't find any NFL scouting staffs using his blue book to make decisions, that's for sure. Don't get me wrong. I like watching the ESPN draft broadcast and I even enjoy listening to Kiper. But I don't hold his analysis in very high regard. If you do, hey, fine. Fine if you like ham sandwiches, too. This all started because of the implicit creedence you gave to his comments about the Whitner pick, which were ridiculous then and remain so. Just like his claim that Bunkley was the right pick for the Bills and if not him, then Winston Justice. Whaddya know, Bunkley could barely get on the field, is already in the Eagles doghouse, and Justice fell to the 2nd round. I guess he was dead on about his Whitner comments though.
billybob Posted March 15, 2007 Posted March 15, 2007 Now Whitner was a real shocker for all of us on draft day as my heart stopped beating momentarily that day when I heard the pick. Although the pick turned out to be "okay", I don't want to go through that again this year with another surprise pick.There will already be enough stress waiting to see which direction they will go, please just pick Willis, Okoye, Branch, Peterson or Lynch with #12. Since they have traded to get back into the first round twice in the last three years, I would love to see them draft Okoye if he's there at 12, then trade up to get Willis if he falls to around 20. Man, that would be two awesome young acquistions for our up and coming D. I think with as many needs as the Bills have you take whoever you have rated the best- if players are rated closely then you remember the world theory of drafting which states there is a very limited number of large (260-360lbs) athletic men in the world and when you have a chance to take one you do it. So with that in mind- 1. Peterson 2. Branch 3. Okoye 4. Lynch 5. Willis
John from Riverside Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 If all these players were available to us when the #12 came around I think the answer is obvious, Trade down. We have several needs which a first rounder could help plug, but no one choice is going to fill them all. If we trade down and get additional first day choices, we might get a first day pick or picks which help us fill all the holes and if you can pull off a trade without dropping an inordinate number of slots, you still get one of the guys you named (maybe 2) with the extra picks. The key to the draft seems to me to be to get the players you want and if there is no firm reason to choose a particular player (our safety need made us want one of the two highest rated safties with our #8 and when OAK surprisingly took Huff at #7 and DET at #9 had a clear safety need (which they then filled with the second pick after we took Whitner then our choice became obvious). Given there are at least 5 players on your list that I think fill a need of ours, then the Bills could easily trade down 4 slots and pick up an extra 2nd rounder for doing so and still get one of these 5. Pyrite....why is it that your shortest posts are also your best ones.... In my opinion you HAVE to trade down if all those players are on the board......what do you do when you have needs at several spots? You try to accumulate as many 1st day picks as possible while still getting a impact player at a position of need in the first..... I have seen mocks where both Lynch AND Willis drop into the latter first......if we could find a way to get both players I would consider this a strong strong draft
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 Now Whitner was a real shocker for all of us on draft day as my heart stopped beating momentarily that day when I heard the pick. Although the pick turned out to be "okay", I don't want to go through that again this year with another surprise pick.There will already be enough stress waiting to see which direction they will go, please just pick Willis, Okoye, Branch, Peterson or Lynch with #12. Since they have traded to get back into the first round twice in the last three years, I would love to see them draft Okoye if he's there at 12, then trade up to get Willis if he falls to around 20. Man, that would be two awesome young acquistions for our up and coming D. Marv knows what he was doing when he drafted Whitner. Whitner is an awesome player. If they pull another Donte Whitner this year WHO CARES! Marv knows what he's doing. TRUST IN MARV!
jarthur31 Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 Now Whitner was a real shocker for all of us on draft day as my heart stopped beating momentarily that day when I heard the pick. Although the pick turned out to be "okay", I don't want to go through that again this year with another surprise pick.There will already be enough stress waiting to see which direction they will go, please just pick Willis, Okoye, Branch, Peterson or Lynch with #12. Since they have traded to get back into the first round twice in the last three years, I would love to see them draft Okoye if he's there at 12, then trade up to get Willis if he falls to around 20. Man, that would be two awesome young acquistions for our up and coming D. LMAO, how could that be wrong? Bringing in a guy who starts right away, does better than expected, and will play the next 10 years with us at a very high level. We need more picks like this to get us to a SB.
todd Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 You must be able to evaluate players and value way better than Modrak & Guy. Now Whitner was a real shocker for all of us on draft day as my heart stopped beating momentarily that day when I heard the pick. Although the pick turned out to be "okay", I don't want to go through that again this year with another surprise pick.There will already be enough stress waiting to see which direction they will go, please just pick Willis, Okoye, Branch, Peterson or Lynch with #12. Since they have traded to get back into the first round twice in the last three years, I would love to see them draft Okoye if he's there at 12, then trade up to get Willis if he falls to around 20. Man, that would be two awesome young acquistions for our up and coming D.
todd Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 Exactly. Kiper's job isn't to evaluate players. His job is to figure out where people will go, create as much hype as possible, and sell magazines based on that hype. Kiper doesn't have insight into a team's personnel plan, the team's own scouting information, etc. We'd all be best to ignore that crap and enjoy the day, unless you think you can evaluate players better than Buffalo scouts. This is the kind of childish, premature reaction that has made me not want to participate in any discussion of the draft, even though I'm biting my tongue trying not to. To say that the whitner pick was 'okay' after ONE FUGGIN season is beyond ridiculous. Do we REALLY need to make a list of all the impact players in the NFL who had average to merely above average rookie seasons? Who the hell are any of us to declare that we have better insight into who the right players are for this offensive/defensive system, the chemistry of the team, and the time-to-impact category that's so critical to scouting? Who the hell are any of us to say that because we read a few Websites written by armchair draftnicks or worse, paid draftnicks like Mel "Bandwagon" Kiper, that we know better than MOdrak and his scouts, with decades of experience in the business...? I'll take any bet that there will come a day, not too far off, when anyone who questioned the Whitner pick will hope that they're not remembered as a guy who questioned the Whitner pick. Provided he stays healthy. I think last year's draft is shaping up to be one of the best the Bills have had in years. Probably since 2001, only potentially better, considering the entire second day of that draft was a total bust-out loss. If the Bills don't take a guy that you think you like because Mel Kiper or Pete Prisco wrote something sexy about them and you fell in love with your own imaginings of wearing that guy's jersey, then maybe it's time to stop reading all the draft sites and instead pick up some books on college scouting, ask some of the Bills scouts for tips on how to educate yourself, and start watching a ton of tape. I'll continue to believe that guys like Modrak and Levy will do a better job than I could. Or you could.
coachhillenbrand Posted March 16, 2007 Author Posted March 16, 2007 I wouldn't classify Whitner as an "awesome" player just yet. Marv knows what he was doing when he drafted Whitner. Whitner is an awesome player. If they pull another Donte Whitner this year WHO CARES! Marv knows what he's doing. TRUST IN MARV!
todd Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 I wouldn't classify Whitner as an "awesome" player just yet. If they draft another player in the 1st round that proves to be a very capable starter as a rookie, that's a damn good return for a rookie S. There's no getting around that fact.
coachhillenbrand Posted March 16, 2007 Author Posted March 16, 2007 If Kiper's job isn't to evaluate players, how come thats what his book is all about, EVALUATING PLAYERS. How come his free agent list that is published every year does the same thing. Regardless of you or anyone else's interpretation of Kiper's actual job duties, his draft book is a valuable resource, especially one that goes past the first two rounds of player projections for people who are not GM's, scouts, etc... You're right, he doesn't have insight to a team's personnel plan and scouting information, nor should he............NOBODY DOES SHERLOCK!!!! Its strictly a matter of personal opinion on what you think of his draft work so if you don't like it, thats one less resource you can use on Draft Day. I don't just like his work, there are many others I enjoy too like Gil Brandt and Pat Kirwan just to name a few. I try and find as many NFL Draft resource books and websites on the draft as possible to learn as much as I can as a "fan" of every potential Buffalo Bills draft pick. Is there something wrong with that? As far as Buffalo's scouts being such great evaluators. They are pretty good, but like all talent scouts, GM's, head coach's, etc.... they think that they are the ones who had the best draft and they are the ones who got exactly the player they wanted all along. You can't base an organizations track record on ONE DRAFT and although the Bills got great value for the players they got in the later rounds of last years draft, its way too early to tell how good those picks will really be and some of them like a Kyle Williams and Keith Ellison are not going to Hawaii anytime in this lifetime. Just curious, when was the last time we were in the playoffs? Do I feel like we are on the right track? Yes, maybe, depending on how our offensive line turns out and what they do to improve the DL. Have they neglected both sides of the ball upfront all these years since Polian left? Yes they have and what has that done for us, nothing. Whether you want to admit it or not, the moves Marv and Co make on paper seem great and all, but we will never be a serious playoff contender unless we get things fixed up front on both sides of the ball. Dockery and Walker I like but they are not a sure thing, especially Walker! Exactly. Kiper's job isn't to evaluate players. His job is to figure out where people will go, create as much hype as possible, and sell magazines based on that hype. Kiper doesn't have insight into a team's personnel plan, the team's own scouting information, etc. We'd all be best to ignore that crap and enjoy the day, unless you think you can evaluate players better than Buffalo scouts.
chicot Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 Yes, right now he's the No. 1 QB, but we're only a year away from serious questions about him and the team exploring other options. If Bills do take Quinn or Russell (highly unlikely) I would not question it that much, because it means that they feel Losman has peaked. Even if he has peaked, there's no guarantee that Quinn or Russell would be any better than he was last year. There have been plenty of qb's taken in the first round that have been complete busts. I don't think there's any way they take a qb in the 1st round when there are far more pressing needs at lb, dt and rb.
Dibs Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 .......its way too early to tell how good those picks will really be and some of them like a Kyle Williams and Keith Ellison are not going to Hawaii anytime in this lifetime...... :D :wallbash: :wallbash: I just had to poke fun & point this out.
Beerball Posted March 16, 2007 Posted March 16, 2007 Um, sorry wrong again bro. I never mentioned Kiper and his comments about the Whitner pick, get your facts straight with who's posting what. All I said was that Whitner was a surprise pick at 8, whether it be mock draft analysts or Bills fans, everyone agrees they were shocked at that particular moment.You're still avoiding the point, give me some solid facts on a full 7 round draft over a period of years and then get back to me. You have the time based on your daily posts, get on it boy!! I think you make great points. The Bills should go this direction.
coachhillenbrand Posted March 16, 2007 Author Posted March 16, 2007 I was talking about Whitner and Simpson. People like Kyle Williams are nothing more then a rotational DT with average skills at best. To be a Pro Bowl Player you have to be the in the top 2-3 players at your position. Please don't tell me Williams and Ellison are Pro Bowl Potential players :D :wallbash: :wallbash: I just had to poke fun & point this out.
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