What if Okoye, Peterson, Branch, Hall, Lynch, Ginn, Willis are availab

[nodnarb]

I was not insinuating, that they have fell short of the post season for over a decade, merely from their scouting. I was attempting to illuminate the concept, that it is feasible for a staff to be incompetent despite their training and expertise. Also, the prevailing consenus of most people, not just Mel kiper, did subcribe to the opinion that donte was a "suprising pick" whether you want to concede to it or not.

 

 

And that just serves to reinforce the point I was making. Yes, it's a fact that many pundits on ESPN were surprised by the Whitner pick, and that just further proves the widely known fact that the "homework" those guys do to prepare their draft commentary is template and program-driven and nowhere near deep enough to serve as an enlightening tool for fans. The FACT is, these guys know a fraction about the players when compared to the scouting staff of any of the 32 teams. Another FACT of pre-draft punditry is that scouts feed guys like Kiper misinformation because they know he'll take that information and spread it around. Nobody is *used* more than Mel Kiper in the weeks leading up to the draft. And of course, he's also fed good info just to make it difficult for him to parse what's real and what's not. All Kiper really has is a decent memory.

 

Again, I'll take any bet that nobody will lament the Whitner pick 2-3 years from now when he's widely regarded as one of the best, perhaps *the best* SS *for the Tampa-2*. Reactions to draftees on draft day or even a year later is a complete waste of time.

[coachhillenbrand]

Hey Brain, no one is saying Whitner was a bad pick. Your comment, (At least one analyst had Whitner going to the Bills with their first pick), thats a good one!!!!!

You mean "ONE" and only "ONE" person or mock draft board had him going to the Bills and as you said, that was only a day or two before the draft, hence some possible inside information. Show me one single message posted on the Bills message board last year before the pick was announced that predicted Whitner. I thought so!! The point here, as with the original post yesterday, is that Whitner was a SURPRISE pick when everyone else was guessing 4-6 other players. EVEN CHRIS BERMAN GOT THE PICK WRONG AND WAS SURPRISED! How many times have you seen Berman get information from the taxi cab driver wrong during draft time? Now getting back to the reason for this post from yesterday. Its to see if the same thing will happen this year where many of us are throwing around the same 4-6 names in the Bills slot and then they go ahead and pull a "Whitner" and take someone we're not really expecting.

Stop trying to make something out of nothing by reading into everything, over analyzing, and then twisting things around to make some ridiculous post that makes absolutely no sense in relation to what the intention of this original post was all about.

I would think you might have better things to do with your time but I could be wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

At least one analyst (Mike Mayock) had Whitner going to the Bills BEFORE the draft. I noted that someone on here commented that Mayock made this call after the Bills actually selected Whitner, but that is misinformation. In his last mock draft (a day or two before the draft -- once Whitner's stock had peaked), Mayock predicted that he would go to the Bills. Now, maybe Mayock caught wind that the Bills were interested in Whitner, but the fact remains that he was on board with the pick BEFORE it actually happened. Meanwhile, Kiper agreed that it was a good fit and that Whitner was a good football player; he just felt that he was a slight reach at 8. He didn't have a problem with the Bills passing on any of the other available players -- his criticism was that the team should have traded down, considering that both Cutler and Leinart were still on the board. The main dissenter was Chris Morteneson, who had an axe to grind with the Bills for having fired his butt-boy Donahoe. Of course, Mort is no NFL scout, so why anyone would be worried about what he has to say I'll never know.

 

The real point is that it does NOT matter what anyone has to say about our picks. Last year there were some publications that gave us a low grade after the draft -- but they are now changing their tune. Of course, the opposite is also true as well. That is, after just one year, it's too early to call any of these players "reaches" or "steals".

 

From my vantage point, I am no scout, so I have to go by what the experts say and trust our scouts to identify the best players for the system(s) that we have in place. Thus, I was ambivalent regarding the Whitner pick, although I agreed with Kiper in my wondering why the team did not trade down with, say, the Broncos. As far as the trade-up/down possibilities, now that he has a War Room under his belt, I have confidence that Marv will do a good job working the phones.

 

Regardless, I just wanted to set the facts straight that not EVERYONE thought that the Whitner pick was horrible.

[coachhillenbrand]

Sorry to disagree with you but Mel Kiper, whether you want to admit it or not, does a pretty darn good job when it comes to evaluating college players. I think you fail to realize he gets paid big bucks to do one thing, scout and evaluate college players across the nation. If he wasn't good at it, don't you think he would be repalced by now? He has an in-depth blue draft book (probably the best I've ever seen) with detailed evaluations on every potential draftee, now thats alot of homework. He also has access to an incredible amount of video footage of all college football prospects, not to mention he's been doing this for sooooooo many years that he must be doing something right.

As far as scouts feeding Mel Kiper wrong information? I think YOU were fed wrong information because Kiper has his own opinions and doesn't get influenced from what other people say or think. Thats obvious with how brutal and upfront he can be when he disagrees with other people/teams evaluations. Maybe if you had access to some of the material Kiper puts out there for draftnicks to follow, you would have a greater appreciation for the work he does and how accurate many of his assessments really are. If this is all the guy does for a living and has done so and done it well for all these years (including having access to the same information as scouting staff departments), how can he be generalized as being program driven and not deep enough to enlighten t.v. watchers. I have news for you bro, I would take someone like Mel Kipers assessment, then a head coach or GM who have so many other duties throughout the football year, they can't possibly put in the time and energy it takes to do a better job. I think Mel Kiper is an arrogant little punk at times but I respect his work and his draft book is one awesome piece of an NFL Draft resource to prepare for draft day, especially for the middle to late round picks of all teams.

 

And that just serves to reinforce the point I was making. Yes, it's a fact that many pundits on ESPN were surprised by the Whitner pick, and that just further proves the widely known fact that the "homework" those guys do to prepare their draft commentary is template and program-driven and nowhere near deep enough to serve as an enlightening tool for fans. The FACT is, these guys know a fraction about the players when compared to the scouting staff of any of the 32 teams. Another FACT of pre-draft punditry is that scouts feed guys like Kiper misinformation because they know he'll take that information and spread it around. Nobody is *used* more than Mel Kiper in the weeks leading up to the draft. And of course, he's also fed good info just to make it difficult for him to parse what's real and what's not. All Kiper really has is a decent memory.

 

Again, I'll take any bet that nobody will lament the Whitner pick 2-3 years from now when he's widely regarded as one of the best, perhaps *the best* SS *for the Tampa-2*. Reactions to draftees on draft day or even a year later is a complete waste of time.

[deep2evans]

Hey Brain, no one is saying Whitner was a bad pick. Your comment, (At least one analyst had Whitner going to the Bills with their first pick), thats a good one!!!!!

You mean "ONE" and only "ONE" person or mock draft board had him going to the Bills and as you said, that was only a day or two before the draft, hence some possible inside information. Show me one single message posted on the Bills message board last year before the pick was announced that predicted Whitner. I thought so!! The point here, as with the original post yesterday, is that Whitner was a SURPRISE pick when everyone else was guessing 4-6 other players. EVEN CHRIS BERMAN GOT THE PICK WRONG AND WAS SURPRISED! How many times have you seen Berman get information from the taxi cab driver wrong during draft time? Now getting back to the reason for this post from yesterday. Its to see if the same thing will happen this year where many of us are throwing around the same 4-6 names in the Bills slot and then they go ahead and pull a "Whitner" and take someone we're not really expecting.

Stop trying to make something out of nothing by reading into everything, over analyzing, and then twisting things around to make some ridiculous post that makes absolutely no sense in relation to what the intention of this original post was all about.

I would think you might have better things to do with your time but I could be wrong.

 

I think the point he is trying to make, is that most fans base their opinions on the draft, whether they are "surprized" or whether its "warrented," by comparing the actual results to that of "expect" mock drafts. Noone had Whitner in top 10 going to Buffalo, so it immediately became a bad pick, which is a joke. And while the pick may have been borderline surprizing, its only because 99% of fans and 90% of "experts" are obsessed with the sexy pick. Lienart was available??? and they took WHITNER!!! It's jsut horribly skewed logic.

[JAMIEBUF12]

Now Whitner was a real shocker for all of us on draft day as my heart stopped beating momentarily that day when I heard the pick. Although the pick turned out to be "okay", I don't want to go through that again this year with another surprise pick.

There will already be enough stress waiting to see which direction they will go, please just pick Willis, Okoye, Branch, Peterson or Lynch with #12. Since they have traded to get back into the first round twice in the last three years, I would love to see them draft Okoye if he's there at 12, then trade up to get Willis if he falls to around 20. Man, that would be two awesome young acquistions for our up and coming D.

if marv "pulls a whitner surprise pick)on the bills again...i'd be elated!just as long as the player performed as well as donte.oh btw how do you figure donte was just ok?he did have a defensive player of the month honor as a rookie.everybody likes to diss marv but fans forget he was in all those draft rooms with bill polian and butler when levy was the head coach here.my point is i think marv knows how to draft.go marv and go bills in"07

[obie_wan]

Sorry to disagree with you but Mel Kiper, whether you want to admit it or not, does a pretty darn good job when it comes to evaluating college players. I think you fail to realize he gets paid big bucks to do one thing, scout and evaluate college players across the nation. If he wasn't good at it, don't you think he would be repalced by now? He has an in-depth blue draft book (probably the best I've ever seen) with detailed evaluations on every potential draftee, now thats alot of homework. He also has access to an incredible amount of video footage of all college football prospects, not to mention he's been doing this for sooooooo many years that he must be doing something right.

As far as scouts feeding Mel Kiper wrong information? I think YOU were fed wrong information because Kiper has his own opinions and doesn't get influenced from what other people say or think. Thats obvious with how brutal and upfront he can be when he disagrees with other people/teams evaluations. Maybe if you had access to some of the material Kiper puts out there for draftnicks to follow, you would have a greater appreciation for the work he does and how accurate many of his assessments really are. If this is all the guy does for a living and has done so and done it well for all these years (including having access to the same information as scouting staff departments), how can he be generalized as being program driven and not deep enough to enlighten t.v. watchers. I have news for you bro, I would take someone like Mel Kipers assessment, then a head coach or GM who have so many other duties throughout the football year, they can't possibly put in the time and energy it takes to do a better job. I think Mel Kiper is an arrogant little punk at times but I respect his work and his draft book is one awesome piece of an NFL Draft resource to prepare for draft day, especially for the middle to late round picks of all teams.

 

are you like 12 with a reading list limited to Mel's Big Book?

 

Mel has good access to NFL front office personel (thru ESPN) which he uses to try to slot players in the draft.

 

however, to say that Mel is great at scouting and evaluating talent is delusional.

 

complete madness to put more stock in Mel's Big Book than actual NFL scouts and GMs.

 

Carry on

[Lurker]

Mel has good access to NFL front office personel (thru ESPN) which he uses to try to slot players in the draft.

 

however, to say that Mel is great at scouting and evaluating talent is delusional.

 

That access is his biggest weakness, too. He gets "used" by GMs all the time to spin disinformation, which is why everyone is "shocked" when players go higher/lower than he predicted.

 

The funny thing is that most draftnicks must have hot pocket memories to keep buying his patter year after year...

[coachhillenbrand]

Everyone is entitled to their opionion. If you can find a better resource book with more information then his, please forward me the info. Thanks

 

 

are you like 12 with a reading list limited to Mel's Big Book?

 

Mel has good access to NFL front office personel (thru ESPN) which he uses to try to slot players in the draft.

 

however, to say that Mel is great at scouting and evaluating talent is delusional.

 

complete madness to put more stock in Mel's Big Book than actual NFL scouts and GMs.

 

Carry on

[nodnarb]

I wasn't going to waste any more time trying to help you understand this, but what the hell. Yes, Kiper does his own scouting. He's just a mediocre scout, that's all. That's why EVERY YEAR you see his earliest mock draft, the one ostensibly based on his scouting, looks nothing like his final mock in the days before the draft. Why? Because his "players on the move", either up or down, are based on CONVERSATIONS he has, not further research or game tape. Kiper was hired by ESPN to make the draft an entertainment piece. Not because he was a "genius" at college scouting. The guy is respected for the job he has done to make the draft a more palatable piece of television, not for his scouting acumen. Fact, "bro".

 

Here are a few more facts for ya: Score 1 point for each player correctly identified as a first round pick, and 2 points for each player correctly matched to the team that drafts him. Where does Kiper score? No better than part-time draftnicks who are NOT scouts. Using the 2006 draft as an example, writers Rick Gosselin of the Dallas News and Nolan of PFW score first.

 

1. Gosselin 57pts

2. Nolan Nawrocki of PFW 57pts

3. DJ Boyer, draftstock.com: 53pts

4. Rob McCartney, Rob's Scouting (armchair tape watching): 46pts

5. Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout 46 pts

6. Mike McCollom, Football.com 46pts

7. Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline 46pts

8. Patrick Wrede of "Draft World" 45pts

9. Dr. Z 42 pts

10. Mel Kiper 40pts

 

Scoring just the 1st rounders without doubling credit for tying the right teams to the players, and his score is worse relative to this field of (mostly) amateurs.

 

 

 

Sorry to disagree with you but Mel Kiper, whether you want to admit it or not, does a pretty darn good job when it comes to evaluating college players. I think you fail to realize he gets paid big bucks to do one thing, scout and evaluate college players across the nation. If he wasn't good at it, don't you think he would be repalced by now? He has an in-depth blue draft book (probably the best I've ever seen) with detailed evaluations on every potential draftee, now thats alot of homework. He also has access to an incredible amount of video footage of all college football prospects, not to mention he's been doing this for sooooooo many years that he must be doing something right.

As far as scouts feeding Mel Kiper wrong information? I think YOU were fed wrong information because Kiper has his own opinions and doesn't get influenced from what other people say or think. Thats obvious with how brutal and upfront he can be when he disagrees with other people/teams evaluations. Maybe if you had access to some of the material Kiper puts out there for draftnicks to follow, you would have a greater appreciation for the work he does and how accurate many of his assessments really are. If this is all the guy does for a living and has done so and done it well for all these years (including having access to the same information as scouting staff departments), how can he be generalized as being program driven and not deep enough to enlighten t.v. watchers. I have news for you bro, I would take someone like Mel Kipers assessment, then a head coach or GM who have so many other duties throughout the football year, they can't possibly put in the time and energy it takes to do a better job. I think Mel Kiper is an arrogant little punk at times but I respect his work and his draft book is one awesome piece of an NFL Draft resource to prepare for draft day, especially for the middle to late round picks of all teams.

[coachhillenbrand]

You obviously have alot of time on your hands. Maybe you can take it a step further and do your analysis on all 7 rounds instead of 1, as well as 10 years of work instead of 1, then I'll be impressed if your numbers still match up.

By the way, how much of a slouch are you to make up your own point system for rating mock drafts, get a life bro.........or at least a part-time job to keep yourself busy. Kiper making his mock drafts strictly on conversations, thats a good one too but hey, anything to keep yourself amused! By the way, nobody said Kiper was a genius. Just thought his NFL Football guide that comes out every year is extremely helpful, especially with the mid to late round picks that many people have not heard of.

Thats a personal opinion, so get off your high horse and get a grip with the reality that not everyone agrees with your ridiculous comments and incredibally funny and time consuming mock draft rookie ratings system. You are pretty full of yourself son.

 

 

 

I wasn't going to waste any more time trying to help you understand this, but what the hell. Yes, Kiper does his own scouting. He's just a mediocre scout, that's all. That's why EVERY YEAR you see his earliest mock draft, the one ostensibly based on his scouting, looks nothing like his final mock in the days before the draft. Why? Because his "players on the move", either up or down, are based on CONVERSATIONS he has, not further research or game tape. Kiper was hired by ESPN to make the draft an entertainment piece. Not because he was a "genius" at college scouting. The guy is respected for the job he has done to make the draft a more palatable piece of television, not for his scouting acumen. Fact, "bro".

 

Here are a few more facts for ya: Score 1 point for each player correctly identified as a first round pick, and 2 points for each player correctly matched to the team that drafts him. Where does Kiper score? No better than part-time draftnicks who are NOT scouts. Using the 2006 draft as an example, writers Rick Gosselin of the Dallas News and Nolan of PFW score first.

 

1. Gosselin 57pts

2. Nolan Nawrocki of PFW 57pts

3. DJ Boyer, draftstock.com: 53pts

4. Rob McCartney, Rob's Scouting (armchair tape watching): 46pts

5. Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout 46 pts

6. Mike McCollom, Football.com 46pts

7. Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline 46pts

8. Patrick Wrede of "Draft World" 45pts

9. Dr. Z 42 pts

10. Mel Kiper 40pts

 

Scoring just the 1st rounders without doubling credit for tying the right teams to the players, and his score is worse relative to this field of (mostly) amateurs.

[deep2evans]

You obviously have alot of time on your hands. Maybe you can take it a step further and do your analysis on all 7 rounds instead of 1, as well as 10 years of work instead of 1, then I'll be impressed if your numbers still match up.

By the way, how much of a slouch are you to make up your own point system for rating mock drafts, get a life bro.........or at least a part-time job to keep yourself busy. Kiper making his mock drafts strictly on conversations, thats a good one too but hey, anything to keep yourself amused! By the way, nobody said Kiper was a genius. Just thought his NFL Football guide that comes out every year is extremely helpful, especially with the mid to late round picks that many people have not heard of.

Thats a personal opinion, so get off your high horse and get a grip with the reality that not everyone agrees with your ridiculous comments and incredibally funny and time consuming mock draft rookie ratings system. You are pretty full of yourself son.

 

I dont want to become a part of this little disagreement you guys are having, but I dont understand your condesending tone while he presents a really good point. To make fun of him because he ripped your point a new one, is the epitome of immature. It seems you are pretty full of yourself, son.

[GG]

Other than safety, name one position where you couldn't justify making a high 1st round pick?

[deep2evans]

Other than safety, name one position where you couldn't justify making a high 1st round pick?

 

quarterback, wide receiver, guard, defensive end, safety

[nodnarb]

I wonder how you fared on the reading comprehension portion of the SAT. First, that post took me a whole 3 minutes to write, and it's not my own point system...that data on relative pundit scores is on the Web. Find it! And besides, it doesn't matter whose point system it is. It's *a measure*. What other measure would you use but 1 point for correctly identifying a first round pick? Got a special formula for us? An analysis of all 7 rounds WOULD be time consuming, and I'm not interested. But I'm sure it would only prove further that Kiper is no better than an average of any ten armchair Web scouts. And let me repeat this part since you obviously have trouble understanding the written word: Compare ANY year's first Kiper mock with his final mock. I've been in to mocks for years and his always changes the most. He does his scouting closer to his first mock than his last. It's widely known that Kiper talks to hundreds of scouts leading up to the draft. So, you decide, smart guy: What causes all the ups and downs and changes to his original scouting mock? CONVERSATIONS. And yes, it is amusing. It's amusing that you think he's really a scout when he's really just a compiler of information from other sources. That's his job. To compile and talk well enough to keep people from changing the channel. I'm on no high horse. At this time of year, I can't resist the urge to knock others off theirs. If you'd read any posts you might see that.

 

 

You obviously have alot of time on your hands. Maybe you can take it a step further and do your analysis on all 7 rounds instead of 1, as well as 10 years of work instead of 1, then I'll be impressed if your numbers still match up.

By the way, how much of a slouch are you to make up your own point system for rating mock drafts, get a life bro.........or at least a part-time job to keep yourself busy. Kiper making his mock drafts strictly on conversations, thats a good one too but hey, anything to keep yourself amused! By the way, nobody said Kiper was a genius. Just thought his NFL Football guide that comes out every year is extremely helpful, especially with the mid to late round picks that many people have not heard of.

Thats a personal opinion, so get off your high horse and get a grip with the reality that not everyone agrees with your ridiculous comments and incredibally funny and time consuming mock draft rookie ratings system. You are pretty full of yourself son.

[GG]

quarterback, wide receiver, guard, defensive end, safety

 

Is that because we have irreplaceable all-pros at those positions now? WR may be the only luxury pick at No 12 (Maybe QB). Any other pick would be highly justified. (What part of, "other than safety" was ambiguous?)

[deep2evans]

Is that because we have irreplaceable all-pros at those positions now? WR may be the only luxury pick at No 12 (Maybe QB). Any other pick would be highly justified. (What part of, "other than safety" was ambiguous?)

 

No, I just don't want to draft a backup at 12th overall.

 

We don't a backup to Losman

WR doesn't seem like a smart move as we've invested a 1st and 2rd in recent years

We just threw 49 mil at one guard and have a few guys capable at starting the other spot

Schobel and Kelsey are signed long term

 

I hardly see DE and guard as "justified" when we have gaping holes at RB, CB, and LB

[GG]

No, I just don't want to draft a backup at 12th overall.

 

We don't a backup to Losman

WR doesn't seem like a smart move as we've invested a 1st and 2rd in recent years

We just threw 49 mil at one guard and have a few guys capable at starting the other spot

Schobel and Kelsey are signed long term

 

I hardly see DE and guard as "justified" when we have gaping holes at RB, CB, and LB

 

Anyone Bills draft at #12 will be designated to be a starter, but if a by freak chance someone slips to #12, there isn't a spot on this team that couldn't use an upgrade based on who's available. Just because Schobel & Kelsay are signed doesn't mean you wouldn't get an instant upgrade on the position by drafting Adams or Anderson. In fact, I would say Bills would be crazy to pass either up if either is available at No. 12.

 

The reason everyone was munching panties last year over Whitner is because Levy & Co. went for a surprise name, not that he didn't address a serious need. I don't know if the point of this thread is that people don't want Bills to pick a player because they don't like his name or they don't like the position. Point is, Bills still have major holes across the roster, and it's stupid to a) get fixated on a name and b) get fixated on 3 positions of need, because when its time for Bills to pick, many more factors come into play than where the Mel Kipers have the players rated.

[MRW]

Is that because we have irreplaceable all-pros at those positions now? WR may be the only luxury pick at No 12 (Maybe QB). Any other pick would be highly justified. (What part of, "other than safety" was ambiguous?)

Maybe QB? I agree with your larger point, but come on, did you reverse WR and QB in your statement?

[GG]

Maybe QB? I agree with your larger point, but come on, did you reverse WR and QB in your statement?

 

Did not reverse. Bills obviously have a top flight No. 1 WR, so a high first round pick would be for the No. 2 position. That is an area of need, but not something that IMHO Bills should address at that slot. But, although Losman has made tremendous strides last year, it's far from certain that he will develop into an effective NFL QB. If Bills select Brady or Russell at that slot, it's a sure indication of what the coaches think of Losman's future.

[coachhillenbrand]

Like I said, try and do your ratings on a full 7 round draft over a period of years, then get back to me.

Until then, your formula garbage (regardless of where you got it from) based on one round from one year is useless. You still haven't found me a better in-depth resource analysis for a full 7 round draft then his yearly published and highly sought after blue book.

By the way, almost 8,000 posts??? You're my hero!!

 

 

I wonder how you fared on the reading comprehension portion of the SAT. First, that post took me a whole 3 minutes to write, and it's not my own point system...that data on relative pundit scores is on the Web. Find it! And besides, it doesn't matter whose point system it is. It's *a measure*. What other measure would you use but 1 point for correctly identifying a first round pick? Got a special formula for us? An analysis of all 7 rounds WOULD be time consuming, and I'm not interested. But I'm sure it would only prove further that Kiper is no better than an average of any ten armchair Web scouts. And let me repeat this part since you obviously have trouble understanding the written word: Compare ANY year's first Kiper mock with his final mock. I've been in to mocks for years and his always changes the most. He does his scouting closer to his first mock than his last. It's widely known that Kiper talks to hundreds of scouts leading up to the draft. So, you decide, smart guy: What causes all the ups and downs and changes to his original scouting mock? CONVERSATIONS. And yes, it is amusing. It's amusing that you think he's really a scout when he's really just a compiler of information from other sources. That's his job. To compile and talk well enough to keep people from changing the channel. I'm on no high horse. At this time of year, I can't resist the urge to knock others off theirs. If you'd read any posts you might see that.